To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[jono]

Summit's post is really helpful, thanks mate.

From listening to the experts, my understanding is that evolutionary biology has hard limits when it comes to evolutionary jumps. Probably getting this wrong because I'm nowhere near an expert, but my understanding is that the virus can mutate to be more infectious, or more deadly, but not both because it has to lose the efficacy of one characteristic to increase the other.

I also remind myself that we're not in the same position as the beginning of the pandemic in that we understand the virus much better now, we know what works and doesn't in terms of treatments, public health measures, societal reactions, etc. and we also have new antivirals, vaccines, vaccine delivery methods, treatments, tests, etc. either in play or on their way.

My strategy is to take a deep breath, remind myself that sensational media headlines get lots of attention, let the experts do their thing, get health advice from my doctor and not the internet, and remember this too shall pass.

This principle is much more reliable over long periods of evolution than single mutations. Delta appears to have been both deadlier and more infectious (at least in Texas). It may be the only thing that enforces the principle in a case like this is if the human response to a deadlier disease is stronger, slowing transmission.

The reason for the exception is the incubation period: if a disease could be 100% deadly but only after the infectious period had passed there wouldn't necessarily be any relationship at all (outside of human response, of course).

[dunfree]

Identifying failures of quarantine doesn't mean that travel restrictions serve no purpose. That they remained too long also does not invalidate them. Go again.

We absolutely missed the boat on travel restrictions in January 2020 by not acting faster and more thoroughly. Unlike January 2020, we can test everyone who must return and restrictions reduce leakage. It's a rate limiting intervention. It is like masking that way.

The travel restrictions probably only buy a few weeks at best. And that is probably also all the time they should be in place.

failures of quarantine!? we don’t quarantine for the most part, and enforcement is lax.

we - because of politics - have steadfastly refused effective measures and instead done stupid bullshit that inconveniences, well, people here. You know, people like you complaining about difficulty going to Canada?

So go again and describe why banning maybe 10-100k travelers (remember can’t bar us citizens or perm residents), if that, is effective policy?

We didn’t “miss the boat” on travel restrictions in January 2020. To say that utterly misses the problems with a connected global economy, and the political possibilities. It wasn’t possible to “ban” travel until the airlines were cratering and cancelling flights left and right because 1) nobody was willing to travel from the us and 2) people from other country’s couldn’t travel

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Yeah, we are again at the bullshit about get tough “travel bans” that aren’t very effective because they let in many, many, people who could infect stage again


edit. the last time we did this we rushed home how many thousands of people, many of whom didn’t quarantine at all?

Exactly, we never had a travel ban, just like we never really had a lockdown. It’s bullshit. A real travel ban and lockdown would work.


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[Benny Profane]

Exactly, we never had a travel ban, just like we never really had a lockdown. It’s bullshit. A real travel ban and lockdown would work.


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Like, China.

[jono]

Real quarantine of incoming travelers would work and be less costly. See UK.

[DougW]

Yep. Remember how screwed we were at the beginning? Couldn't even find surgical masks anywhere. Seemed like months before we had those available much less KN or actual N95 masks. ....

Are we missing the hoarding of TP this time around?? I'm ready , I've got maybe 350 single equal rolls in barn so if this one creates explosive diarrhea then I'm golden.

[Summer]

Exactly, we never had a travel ban, just like we never really had a lockdown. It’s bullshit. A real travel ban and lockdown would work.

Speaking from lived experience, they work to a point. With Covid classic, travel bans and quarantine led to unexpected elimination. With Delta, they slow transmission, but once it escaped, it was all over. For example, Delta became permanently seeded in Aus based on a single limo driver contracting it from foreign air crew during the ride from the airport to the hotel. Now we've done away with quarantine for international arrivals almost completely.

Travel bans, lockdowns and quarantine, in our experience with Delta, bought us time to get vaccinated.

[altasnob]

Altaslob is beginning to suspect the efficacy of vaccines in spite of all data and evidence that this is now a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

That's not what I said. While the current vaccines have proved effective this does not guarantee they are effective against all future variants. The pandemic is not over until it is over on every country on Earth. So there is still ample opportunity for a variant to emerge that evades the current vaccine. That's my point. For all we worry about states like Idaho, with their abysmal vaccination rate, our greater concern should be what's going on in Botswana and India.

People can correct me if I am wrong, but isn't it possible that if and when this vaccine evading variant emerges, that natural immunity plus vaccine will offer the strongest immunity to the new variant? So a country like Sweden, who pursued natural immunity for their young and healthy, and now has high vaccination rates, may have a leg up on other countries.

[skiJ]

guys...

There is some good Information today, and I appreciate the lively discussion - Thank you.

we can argue all weekend about the semantics - and I believe until more is known about omnicron there is value in restricting travel from and to the region(s) of Africa where this variant has been found
( the question I would ask, IS, 'is it already too late (?) ', with infected people being identified already elsewhere in the world... ) ;

an example of the semantic 'debate' that I find unhelpful is if we are going to argue about the use of the words quarantine and "ban" ;
as these are political processes, ,,, they are certainly imperfect. but until more is known about omnicron, I believe travel restrictions have merit, and are likely a useful tool
( I have a very hard time believing travel to South Africa is essential for the global economy and could not be delayed by two weeks or four weeks ( what I am involved with has been conducted by Zoom for eighteen months. choose you internet streaming app. for two weeks or four weeks, personnel travel can be postponed. )) ;

similarly, I am stunned and Not-surprised by the determination to resume international travel for recreation and leisure -
I am far, far behind the curve, but the threads that I see that say can I go to Austria or Italy for a ski trip this winter, ,,, My thought reminds me of something an instructor once said -
' just because one can do something, doesn't mean one Should do (that) something. '


I hope omnicron will Not be significant - but what if it is (?) And if we do nothing until it is proven to be a significant variant. . .

( and I do believe that under certain conditions, the travel of (US) citizens and 'permanent residents' can be restricted.
Please remember, testing is now required. )

thanks for listening. tj

postscript -
as is mentioned repeatedly in today's posts, this situation illustrates Why global vaccination is going to be necessary if we are going to continue to pursue a solution to the global pandemic.

Thank you. ...

[sirbumpsalot]

No worries....the new variant will enter via the southern border where the travel ban, testing, and quarantines are exempt for illegal crossers.

[XXX-er]

Are we missing the hoarding of TP this time around?? I'm ready , I've got maybe 350 single equal rolls in barn so if this one creates explosive diarrhea then I'm golden.

a few days ago all the food/ dairy/ meat in safway was completly gone

washed away by the flood induced food hoarders,

Ironicaly the only products left was a roll of TP and paper towels

I can only assume ever one is still wiping their way thru their pandemic hoardings from 18 months ago

it sounds like yer golden in golden but keep the critters out of that TP eh

[SumJongGuy]

If we do travel ban they need to be by geography instead of the way Trump did... more by race or national origin. For example, vetting EVERYONE coming from South Africa the same to be sure the VIRUS doesn't come regardless of what the passport says is how pandemic countermeasures work. Just banning South African people but allowing others from South Africa to come pretty much unabated (like Trump did with China) only stops people of a certain race/origin instead of stopping the virus.

[XXX-er]

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1978118211727

buddy sez ^^ we will know in a week, also we need to vaccinate the world

Of course i would expect TGR to come up with a conspiracy or at least something really fucked up in < 24 hrs

but yeah I think we are far better off than we were 18 months ago, we know much more about the " pandemic of the unvaccinated "

[Twat]

Sweden sucks...
There is nothing good about this country. I have been there. In many ways.They only care about their hair. Thats all they do. Complete boring country. Nothing to do there except iceskating and crosscountry skiing..... wait curling
IKEA thats what they are.... all flats look the same. H&M All wear the same cloth.
Intelectual fucktards.

No food no culture

Wait dried fish


They are racist, yes they only hangout out and have sex with swedes in sweden.
A nation of inbreds

And yes i can write this hear cause there is no fucking snobish swedes on this bord.
Why cause they think they are better then us.

So no, nobody wants to do sweden

Not even when omnicron is around the corner i would do sweden.


Vaxxmandate ...

Poke em all!!!!

All together against covid
No lies
Get the shot or fuck off to mexico

[jono]

Very little Delta in Peru, like less than 25 cases as of July 13. Delta does alter the math, the R0 has gone from 2.5 to in the 6-8 range, that's going to complicate contact tracing for sure.
Both Alpha and Delta have been been more transmissible than the OG strain, but for different reasons. Alpha shuts down innate signaling better and Delta has further optimized the s1/s2 cleavage that in essence speeds up entry into a cell.. A cross of Alpha and Delta would likely push R0 into the 10-14 range.

Piecing together from Benny's max fear and Nature, the one bad mutation on alpha's spike (N501Y) is one of the mutations on omicron. Would love to think the sources are wrong, but it does seem like lots of people are taking this seriously.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021...side-risk.html

This is a new variant from South Africa, with the following very large number of spike mutations:

A67V, Δ69-70, T95I, G142D/Δ143-145, Δ211/L212I, ins214EPE, G339D, S371L, S373P, S375F, K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H, T547K, D614G, H655Y, N679K, P681H, N764K, D796Y, N856K, Q954H, N969K, L981F

This is as BAD. And it has FCS mutations too.

See also: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04245-0

The Alpha variant has 19 nonsynonymous mutations across its viral genome, including 8 substitutions or deletions in the spike protein, which interacts with cellular receptors to mediate infection and tropism. Here, using a reverse genetics approach, we show that, of the 8 individual spike protein substitutions, only N501Y exhibited consistent fitness gains for replication in the upper airway in the hamster model as well as primary human airway epithelial cells.

[This End Up]

Omicron? Wasn’t that the bad guy in the 1986 transformer Movie?

[abraham]

Omicron? Wasn’t that the bad guy in the 1986 transformer Movie?

Maybe you're thinking of Lrrrrrr from Omicron Persei 8?



Speaking of Futurama, I wonder what happened to Shepard Wong.

[dunfree]

Speaking from lived experience, they work to a point. With Covid classic, travel bans and quarantine led to unexpected elimination. With Delta, they slow transmission, but once it escaped, it was all over. For example, Delta became permanently seeded in Aus based on a single limo driver contracting it from foreign air crew during the ride from the airport to the hotel. Now we've done away with quarantine for international arrivals almost completely.

Travel bans, lockdowns and quarantine, in our experience with Delta, bought us time to get vaccinated.

They can work if they are designed to work. The US effectively eschewed all 3 of those approaches, but pretended we had each. Legally we could quarantine people - we did for a hundred years - but politically that’s impossible currently. We, the us, can’t legally ban inbound travel by citizens and permanent residents, so that’s out. Our “lockdowns” were porous; “locked down” Chicago had more people out and about than Stockholm.

[mcski]

Omicron? Wasn’t that the bad guy in the 1986 transformer Movie?

I immediately thought of a semi truck virus the first I heard the new name

[SumJongGuy]

I immediately thought of a semi truck virus the first I heard the new name

Or this if it jumps to machines..

[MTT]

Betting it’s already here compliments of the southern un-border

[SumJongGuy]

Betting it’s already here compliments of the southern un-border

Because all those dirt poor Central American people have been hanging around South Africans.. seems plausible..

[The SnowShow]

What city in the US is likely to have South Africans traveling in? NYC? Miami?
How many days till the first US case shows up? 4?

[jono]

What city in the US is likely to have South Africans traveling in? NYC? Miami?
How many days till the first US case shows up? 4?

Non-stops to Atlanta and NYC, according to Benny's naked capitalist.

[bennymac]

I think DC had direct flights the last time I traveled to Cape Town.

MTT’s “southern border is the likely entry point” is the dumbest take I’ve heard in a long time…