To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[altasnob]

Was on a Brit ski forum reading about logistics of travel to the Alps, and some guy was going on about how the wearing of masks (and by implication, public hygiene like cleaning door handles occasionally in public areas) was a bad thing long term because as we saw with the lack of ‘Flu last winter, viruses wouldn’t propagate as much and thus our immune systems over time would become weak due to underutilization.

My view is that none of these measures work 100%, so reducing the number of contagions being passed around doesn’t mean our immune systems are never used….just means the use would be less frequent. Meanwhile the contagions would have less opportunity to mutate into more virulent strains.

With so many elderly dying of pneumonia historically, my dentistry background suggests that life expectancies would increase. ?

Is there any evolutionary purpose of disease? One hypothesis as to why some are so effected by COVID, and some are asymptomatic, is because of previous exposure to corona viruses. What's better, playing wack a mole with vaccines while new variants continually pop out from places without the same access to the vaccines, or just letting it run rampant trying to build worldwide immunity as quickly as possible? I think we will need 50 years to sort out the true answer to this question.

[SumJongGuy]

I still have a pretty robust supply of "good" masks. The folks who should be most worried about any new strain spreading wildly are the ones who refuse to wear masks around other people indoors. So, again those folks will be the ones suffering most along with the healthcare workers stuck trying to save them from their own ignorance/stubbornness. Betting science can crank out an updated vaccine within a year again., but back to masks everywhere all the time until then for smart people if it's confirmed vaccines are way less effective at preventing serious illness from this.

[Summit]

Is there any evolutionary purpose of disease? One hypothesis as to why some are so effected by COVID, and some are asymptomatic, is because of previous exposure to corona viruses. What's better, playing wack a mole with vaccines while new variants continually pop out from places without the same access to the vaccines, or just letting it run rampant trying to build worldwide immunity as quickly as possible? I think we will need 50 years to sort out the true answer to this question.

Rampant spread = overwhelmed healthcare system = mass excess of death from many causes, COVID and otherwise

Rampant spread = mutations galore

Vaccines prevent replications prevent mutations

[funkendrenchman]

Is there any evolutionary purpose of disease? One hypothesis as to why some are so effected by COVID, and some are asymptomatic, is because of previous exposure to corona viruses. What's better, playing wack a mole with vaccines while new variants continually pop out from places without the same access to the vaccines, or just letting it run rampant trying to build worldwide immunity as quickly as possible? I think we will need 50 years to sort out the true answer to this question.

It's been awhile since someone suggested pulling a Sweden.

[bennymac]

Or that it’s just the flu.

If some new strain keeps overwhelming health care systems be prepared for more exodus of healthcare workers from the system - especially ER nurses.

[riser4]

I'm fucking sick of this shit.

[bennymac]

Same.

But I’m trying to not dwell on “the sky is falling!” feelings until more definitive details about how effective our vaccines are vs this new strain. Perhaps us vaccinated people don’t need to be concerned.

[Benny Profane]

I'm fucking sick of this shit.

X2

[Benny Profane]

Same.

But I’m trying to not dwell on “the sky is falling!” feelings until more definitive details about how effective our vaccines are vs this new strain. Perhaps us vaccinated people don’t need to be concerned.

I'm fucking concerned because it could result in another six months to a year lockdown just at the beginning of ski season. And, well, life, next year.
Honestly, though, think of the children. My life wont be as fucked up as their's, losing another year of school and socialization.

[altasnob]

It's been awhile since someone suggested pulling a Sweden.

Is Sweden doing that bad? We're still in the middle of the game but it is plausible when it is all said and done scientist will point to Sweden as the country who best handled this pandemic. Protecting those most vulnerable at the early stages while building natural immunity in the population with less risk. Then widespread acceptance of the vaccine once available. This sets them up favorably to handle the variants going forward.

I wish this planet wasn't separated into greedy nation states but instead had a world-wide government. Then there would just as much focus on vaccinating a Botswana village as there is on some American city. Or at least that's how it is supposed to work in my utopian vision of the world.

[Summit]

I do think we are fools not to ban travel to/from southern African nations immediately. "We need study first" says Fauci... we'll have great data 2-4 weeks late. You can drop the ban if it is a nothingburger, but there is no time machine if it is an vaccine escaper. WTF.

[dunfree]

As a Practical matter travel bans haven’t been 100% so haven’t been actual travel bans because the superspreader elite get to globe trot and they haven’t been dropped quickly.

[dunfree]

Is Sweden doing that bad? We're still in the middle of the game but it is plausible when it is all said and done scientist will point to Sweden as the country who best handled this pandemic.

no, it’s not plausible this will happen. There are multiple countries that handled the pandemic much much better economically and socially and health/death wise.


Isn’t a Brit going to ski in the alps leaving hogarthian squalor and despair for clean living?

[Summit]

As a Practical matter travel bans haven’t been 100% so haven’t been actual travel bans because the superspreader elite get to globe trot and they haven’t been dropped quickly.

Who cares. Bans buy time not complete Prevention.

[Jax]

Biden bans travel from South Africa starting Monday. Not linking but it's on the news as of just now.

With such a quick turnaround in that decision, maybe they already know stuff we don't? More likely, Biden's economy was the deciding factor.

[funkendrenchman]

Who cares. Bans buy time not complete Prevention.

Biden to restrict travel from South Africa and 7 other countries starting Monday


President Biden will restrict travel from South Africa and seven other countries starting Monday as a new coronavirus variant has emerged, administration officials tell CNN.

Acting on advice from Dr. Anthony Fauci and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Biden administration will restrict travel from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi.

Officials, who are still learning more about the variant, said the policy was implemented out of an abundance of caution given the World Health Organization has now identified this as a variant of concern.

"Our scientists and public health officials are working quickly to learn more about this variant," one official said.
This does not apply to American citizens and lawful permanent residents. As with all international travelers, they must still test negative prior to travel.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Altaslob is beginning to suspect the efficacy of vaccines in spite of all data and evidence that this is now a pandemic of the unvaccinated. All of our patients in the ICU are unvaccinated. All of our patients in isolation are unvaccinated. We should probably just give up and let Covid run rampant though. Who needs life saving/changing medical intervention anyway? We’ll just fill the hospital with Covid patients and pretend everything is okay.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[dunfree]

Who cares. Bans buy time not complete Prevention.

Do they even buy time? Or is it just pandering theater? 2021 through august the us received <100k visitors with African citizenship.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Do they even buy time? Or is it just pandering theater? 2021 through august the us received <100k visitors with African citizenship.

Certainly, a handful of people that have the new variant couldn’t infect others. Is this where we’re at again? Wtf?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[dunfree]

Certainly, a handful of people that have the new variant couldn’t infect others. Is this where we’re at again? Wtf?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Yeah, we are again at the bullshit about get tough “travel bans” that aren’t very effective because they let in many, many, people who could infect stage again


edit. the last time we did this we rushed home how many thousands of people, many of whom didn’t quarantine at all?

[Summit]

Identifying failures of quarantine doesn't mean that travel restrictions serve no purpose. That they remained too long also does not invalidate them. Go again.

We absolutely missed the boat on travel restrictions in January 2020 by not acting faster and more thoroughly. Unlike January 2020, we can test everyone who must return and restrictions reduce leakage. It's a rate limiting intervention. It is like masking that way.

The travel restrictions probably only buy a few weeks at best. And that is probably also all the time they should be in place.

[Summer]

Summit's post is really helpful, thanks mate.

From listening to the experts, my understanding is that evolutionary biology has hard limits when it comes to evolutionary jumps. Probably getting this wrong because I'm nowhere near an expert, but my understanding is that the virus can mutate to be more infectious, or more deadly, but not both because it has to lose the efficacy of one characteristic to increase the other.

I also remind myself that we're not in the same position as the beginning of the pandemic in that we understand the virus much better now, we know what works and doesn't in terms of treatments, public health measures, societal reactions, etc. and we also have new antivirals, vaccines, vaccine delivery methods, treatments, tests, etc. either in play or on their way.

My strategy is to take a deep breath, remind myself that sensational media headlines get lots of attention, let the experts do their thing, get health advice from my doctor and not the internet, and remember this too shall pass.

[Buster Highmen]

It's gotten to the point that I'm laughing about Santa Plaus.

[skiJ]

Identifying failures of quarantine doesn't mean that travel restrictions serve no purpose. That they remained too long also does not invalidate them. Go again.

We absolutely missed the boat on travel restrictions in January 2020 by not acting faster and more thoroughly. Unlike January 2020, we can test everyone who must return and restrictions reduce leakage. It's a rate limiting intervention. It is like masking that way.

The travel restrictions probably only buy a few weeks at best. And that is probably also all the time they should be in place.

seconded^^^

Thank you, Summit. tj

[SumJongGuy]

My strategy is to take a deep breath, remind myself that sensational media headlines get lots of attention, let the experts do their thing, get health advice from my doctor and not the internet, and remember this too shall pass.

Yep. Remember how screwed we were at the beginning? Couldn't even find surgical masks anywhere. Seemed like months before we had those available much less KN or actual N95 masks. Even if the/a new strain blows up that is vaccines are completely ineffective against, we're in much better shape than we were February of 2020 with regard to PPE.. And a new vaccine can be developed and deployed pretty quickly I would guess.