To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[GoldMember]

Just a random thought on priorities, once the more vulnerable (elderly, healthcare workers, comorbidities) are vaccinated, how about those in younger age brackets (20-40) next. The idea being that they're the most likely to ignore the restrictions therefore more likely to get and spread the virus. Get them inoculated and significantly slow the spread to the more vulnerable. Plus, these tend to be the workers most economically damaged as their service jobs have been put into suspense and they don't have the same level of financial resources to not have to work so, they work and open the spread to others. Kind of a stop it at the source response. Like I said, just a random thought.

[DJSapp]

Just a random thought on priorities, once the more vulnerable (elderly, healthcare workers, comorbidities) are vaccinated, how about those in younger age brackets (20-40) next. The idea being that they're the most likely to ignore the restrictions therefore more likely to get and spread the virus. Get them inoculated and significantly slow the spread to the more vulnerable. Plus, these tend to be the workers most economically damaged as their service jobs have been put into suspense and they don't have the same level of financial resources to not have to work so, they work and open the spread to others. Kind of a stop it at the source response. Like I said, just a random thought.

You're not wrong, but I don't think you're right either.

Main reason being the young are already thinking 'If I get it, I'll be ok.' Couple that with a spoonful of 'All my friends already got the vax, I'll be ok to go hang out with them' while it's being distributed, and I don't think it will serve to slow the spread at all. I think it would likely increase the behaviors we're currently trying to curb in this age group.

If we could get them all on the same day, maybe. But this roll out is going to take months.

[GoldMember]

You're not wrong, but I don't think you're right either.

Main reason being the young are already thinking 'If I get it, I'll be ok.' Couple that with a spoonful of 'All my friends already got the vax, I'll be ok to go hang out with them' while it's being distributed, and I don't think it will serve to slow the spread at all. I think it would likely increase the behaviors we're currently trying to curb in this age group.

If we could get them all on the same day, maybe. But this roll out is going to take months.

The accompanying random thought... For those in, say, the restaurant industry, employers be allowed to open again at a reduced capacity but local public health officials require the employers to require a Covid passport for any employees, much like they require current health cards. But yeah, timing of release of the vaccine and time of distribution won't allow this to be and effective means. Like I said, just random thoughts.

[east or bust]

Covid passport?

Lol, ok Stalin

[GoldMember]

Covid passport?

Lol, ok Stalin

...for lack of a better term. It's not unheard of for certain industry facilities to require some vaccinations. For example, my wife volunteered for a center for small children, 0-6 years old, and was required to get a couple of different vaccinations. I don't recall exactly which ones but I know TB was one. Food workers are required to have passed a test and be issued a FW card as a condition of employment. It's not that foreign of an idea to require they be vaccinated for deadly contagious diseases if they work in a public environment. If they choose not to, that's their choice and they can seek employment in another industry where they don't carry the same exposure. Like I said, random thoughts.

BTW, I didn't coin that term, it's been spoken broadly in the media and not just right-wing, either. https://www.today.com/health/covid-v...status-t203011

[old goat]

I can't believe I need to remind you that these vaccines are on the verge of emergency authorization (different from the standard approval that won't happen for some time), and we still don't know if they will, in fact, prevent people from transmitting the virus. If we don't even know that yet, what else do we not know. I can't believe this needs to be explained at this point for fuck's sake.

The reason we don't know is because as I understand it the Pfizer and Moderna studies didn't test asymptomatic recipients for virus. The Astrazeneca study did but they haven't released the results yet. We also don't know how long the vaccine protection lasts for obvious reasons. We don't know the risk of rare complications because enough people haven't been studied yet--the risk of Guillain Barre after swine flu vaccine in 1976 was 1/100,000. We don't know the risk of late appearing complications, but in the history of vaccines complications have appeared soon after vaccination. When vaccination required injecting entire dead or weakened virus there was always the risk that the virus wasn't weak or dead enough. With the current vaccines there is no virus being injected that could infect someone if it wasn't adequately deactivated, although I believe there are such vaccines in development.

Just a random thought on priorities, once the more vulnerable (elderly, healthcare workers, comorbidities) are vaccinated, how about those in younger age brackets (20-40) next. The idea being that they're the most likely to ignore the restrictions therefore more likely to get and spread the virus. Get them inoculated and significantly slow the spread to the more vulnerable. Plus, these tend to be the workers most economically damaged as their service jobs have been put into suspense and they don't have the same level of financial resources to not have to work so, they work and open the spread to others. Kind of a stop it at the source response. Like I said, just a random thought.

This strategy would only work if very high percentages of these people were vaccinated, and this is the age group least likely to be willing to be vaccinated. Also, see above--we don't know yet if the vaccines prevent asymptomatic infection and transmission. Finally, with the health care system on the verge of collapse and with the very real threat of people dying of non-Covid causes due to unavailability of health care, the first priority after HCW's is to vaccinate those most likely to need hospitalization and ICU care. The problem with any prioritization scheme is that are a whole lot of people in any group you want to prioritize--essential workers, teachers , non elderly with medical risk --and not much vaccine for a while. In the meantime, we certainly need to protect the unemployed economically.

[XXX-er]

I duno, i got a buddy who did an informal FB survey of her young purple haired/ tatooed/ leaf liking/ crystal worshipping/ acid dropping/ rave going/ entry level worker types

6 out of 10 have never been vacinated and never will

[Gcooker]

I'll wait to see the real life "28 Days Later" scenario unfold in the UK. They need to shut off access to that island NOW.

[GoldMember]

I duno, i got a buddy who did an informal FB survey of her young purple haired/ tatooed/ leaf liking/ crystal worshipping/ acid dropping/ rave going/ entry level worker types

6 out of 10 have never been vacinated and never will

Maybe if they couldn't get into raves without having been vaccinated, they'd rethink their resistance??? Or if there aren't any more raves because of the virus??? I really don't get this anti-vaxxing thing. Vaccinations through the 20th century have virtually eradicated so many crippling/deadly diseases it's unthinkable to me to not get them. But, whatever the little darlings want to do, that's their choice but I hope they're not too offended when many public places won't allow them to enter in the future without it.

[Crock]

Lots of interesting opinions in this thread so far, but here's something worth considering.

[uglymoney]

I would think those who have already had Covid would be towards the end of the list. The vaccine isn't going to give you more immunity than you already have. At least until a booster is required (if at all).

That isn't what I heard from one of the government experts on NPR yesterday. He said the immune response from the vaccine is orders of magnitude stronger than the immunity from recovering from the virus.

Sorry no link. Just my memory and some dude on NPR that sounded like he knew a thing about this. Happy to be corrected if this is wrong.

Regardless rideit just plan to get it as soon as you can.

I'm 49 with no health conditions, but definitely essential in the food distribution world.
Wife is 46 with 2 pre-existing conditions that put her at more risk. Also essential city services worker. I really hope we get her in first.

[pureantigravity]

8.3. Known Risks

The vaccine has been shown to elicit increased local and systemic adverse reactions as compared to those in the placebo arm, usually lasting a few days. The most common solicited adverse reactions were injection site reactions (84.1%), fatigue (62.9%), headache (55.1%),muscle pain (38.3%), chills (31.9%), joint pain (23.6%), fever (14.2%). Adverse reactions characterized as reactogenicity were generally mild to moderate. The number of subjects reporting hypersensitivity-related adverse events was numerically higher in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group (137 [0.63%] vs. 111 [0.51%]).

Severe adverse reactions occurred in 0.0-4.6% of participants, were more frequent after Dose 2 than after Dose 1 and were generally less frequent in older adults (>55 years of age) (<2.8%) as compared to younger participants (≤4.6%). Among reported unsolicited adverse events, lymphadenopathy occurred much more frequently in the vaccine group than the placebo group and is plausibly related to vaccination.

Serious adverse events, while uncommon (<1.0%), represented medical events that occur in the general population at similar frequency as observed in the study. Three SAEs in the BNT162b2 group were considered related by the investigator, but not the Sponsor, as related to study vaccination: shoulder injury (n=1), ventricular arrhythmia in a participant with known cardiac conditions (n=1), and lymphadenopathy temporally related following vaccination (n=1).

We considered two of the events as possibly related to vaccine: the shoulder injury possibly due to vaccine administration or the vaccine itself and lymphadenopathy. Lymphadenopathy was temporally associated and biologically plausible.

No specific safety concerns were identified in subgroup analyses by age, race, ethnicity, medical comorbidities, or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Although participants 16 to 17 years of age were enrolled in the phase 3 trial, safety data for this age group is limited. However, available data are consistent with the safety profile in the adult population, and it is biologically reasonable to extrapolate the greater safety experience in adults, in particular younger adults, to the oldest pediatric age group of 16 to 17 years

Being that the placebo was actually a meningitis vaccine (or was it measles mumps rubella vaccine?), but the point is, the COVID-19 vaccine elicited greater adverse reactions than *another vaccine*.

> usually lasting a few days
As compared to the placebo, which was another vaccine.


>Severe adverse reactions occurred in 0.0-4.6% of participants, were more frequent after Dose 2 than after Dose 1 and were generally less frequent in older adults (>55 years of age) (<2.8%) as compared to younger participants (≤4.6%). Among reported unsolicited adverse events, lymphadenopathy occurred much more frequently in the vaccine group than the placebo group and is plausibly related to vaccination.

OK this is not just another vaccine. Severe reactions could happen with 4.6% of those who get it.

> fatigue (62.9%), headache (55.1%),muscle pain (38.3%), chills (31.9%), joint pain (23.6%), fever (14.2%).
Too bad they didn't check for damage or stress responses to the heart muscle. If it causes inflammation, then it causes inflammation.


> And your testicles and ovaries might shrink and/or your offspring will be born snowboarders.
OK. I made that up. But you never know!!!

[MTT]

I duno, i got a buddy who did an informal FB survey of her young purple haired/ tatooed/ leaf liking/ crystal worshipping/ acid dropping/ rave going/ entry level worker types

6 out of 10 have never been vacinated and never will

Seems a bit dramatic a description. Though this whole thing there have been places where people congregate to hook up. And because there are fewer of these places they are really packed. It's never changed and it's not going to change.

[PB]

Demand.

^^^^^ This. Turns out, unless there's a raging pandemic, the demand for vaccines isn't enough to pay for their development.

Dammit; 2 days late and $100 short, again.

[abraham]

Maybe if they couldn't get into raves without having been vaccinated, they'd rethink their resistance??? Or if there aren't any more raves because of the virus??? I really don't get this anti-vaxxing thing. Vaccinations through the 20th century have virtually eradicated so many crippling/deadly diseases it's unthinkable to me to not get them. But, whatever the little darlings want to do, that's their choice but I hope they're not too offended when many public places won't allow them to enter in the future without it.

I wouldn't be shocked of a bunch of them were vaccinated as kids and they don't count that/don't remember it.

[The AD]

I'll wait to see the real life "28 Days Later" scenario unfold in the UK. They need to shut off access to that island NOW.

What if it ends up being more like "Shaun of the Dead" because that shit was hilarious.

[old goat]

That isn't what I heard from one of the government experts on NPR yesterday. He said the immune response from the vaccine is orders of magnitude stronger than the immunity from recovering from the virus.

Sorry no link. Just my memory and some dude on NPR that sounded like he knew a thing about this. Happy to be corrected if this is wrong.

Regardless rideit just plan to get it as soon as you can.

I'm 49 with no health conditions, but definitely essential in the food distribution world.
Wife is 46 with 2 pre-existing conditions that put her at more risk. Also essential city services worker. I really hope we get her in first.

I've heard that they should be vaccinated once there is enough vaccine--but end of the line seems appropriate to me, given that the risk of reinfection so far seems to be very low.

Once everyone has had a chance to be vaccinated I wonder if the govt will have the foresight to pay to maintain the infrastructure for vaccine production--either for weakening immunity, a covid mutation, or a new pandemic. Hopefully not a repeat of the situation with the guy in Texas who ramped up N95 production during SARS at the request of the govt and then had his legs cut out from under him after SARS went away. At this point it should be clear that pandemic protection is more important to national security than the military--at least military at the level we maintain it--and at least on a par with cybersecurity. And we need to be able to produce vaccines, critical drugs on shore, in addition to the PPE.

Imagine if we relied on China for our fighter jets and nuclear weapons. Or didn't start making them until we were attacked.

[Mazderati]

My hand was lower in a tongue in cheek way that I'm not so sure I hope more of my country(wo)men survive. I understand people who are hesitant to get the vaccine but I do not understand the part of our country that thinks this is no worse than the flu and that there are people who die of Covid were close to death and as such should take one for our economy.

I don't like it but share the sentiment.

[TNKen]

Here is where we are today.

Our PCP who is in her late 40's has taken it, as well as the other docs in her practice.

The known side effects of the vaccine are less than the known long-term possible adverse health effects of COVID for her, i.e. pulmonary fibrosis, rhumatic heart issues, pulmonary hypertension, and a host of others.

So, I suspect she will be taking the vaccine. When available, I will likely do the same.

[Ted Striker]

Are we going to just get one vaccine available in a given locale or will be able to choose?

[Mofro261]

Who came up with placebo = vaccine MMR or meningitis?

Placebo: Normal saline (0.9% sodium chloride solution for injection)

[pureantigravity]

Who came up with placebo = vaccine MMR or meningitis?

Placebo: Normal saline (0.9% sodium chloride solution for injection)

Astra Z's covid placebo was a meningitis vax.
This is for ethical reasons (it is WHO recommended) and also to ensure that the subject is not aware of what injection they got.
Cause saline don't cause typical vax symptoms, thus subject post-vax behavior won't be correlated with their vax experience.
It makes it as blind as possible.
Don't know what Pfizer used.

[PNWbrit]

PG arguing with mofro about this stuff is beyond comical.

[Mofro261]

just told you what both Pfizer and Moderna used for placebo.

But AZ also used the same, saline.- https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04516746

[pureantigravity]

just told you what both Pfizer and Moderna used for placebo.

But AZ also used the same, saline.- https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04516746

OK. I stand corrected.
edit. My bad, That was for the University of Oxford covid vaccine study.

So what is with the use of meningitis vaccine as placebo in this study?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...466-1/fulltext

"Participants were randomly assigned to receive either the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or the quadrivalent MenACWY protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccine. MenACWY was used as a comparator vaccine rather than a saline placebo to maintain masking of participants who had local or systemic reactions. Participants aged 18–55 years were randomly assigned (1:1) in the low-dose cohort and (5:1) in the standard-dose cohort to receive either ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or MenACWY. For both 18–55 years cohorts, participants were given two doses of study vaccine. Participants aged 56–69 years were randomly assigned (3:1:3:1) to one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, one dose of MenACWY, two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or two doses of MenACWY. Participants aged 70 years or older were randomly assigned (5:1:5:1) to one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, one dose of MenACWY, two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or two doses of MenACWY."


"It has been reported as the only frontrunner for a COVID-19 vaccine that is not using a true placebo as a control. The World Health Organization’s expert panel on placebos used in vaccine trials does underscore the validity of using a different vaccine as a control (one whose safety is well characterized), but notes that it “may also be less acceptable to regulators or public health authorities and potentially delay approval or adoption of a new vaccine.”"

Why wouldn't the other trials also use a real vaccine as placebo?
What immune response does the real covid vax create that explains the difference in adverse reactions vs meningitis vax?

PS - Coincidentally, as per the RESULTS section:
(1) taking a Tylenol during vaccination doesn't seem to have any benefit for reducing pain and swelling.
(2) there is clearly more itch, pain and tenderness with the covid vaccine vs the meningitis vax.
(3) a lot more other post vax adverse reactions with the covid vs meningitis vax.