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  1. #13951
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    All this fret about boosters but the reality is we could snuff this out country wide if enough people were willing to do their part.
    All these pages and the evidence for this obvious conclusion that runs throughout the thread just gets stronger.

  2. #13952
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougW View Post
    Ok with mandates and vax passports what is that going to do overall vax rate? Once you have nothing else to do what is the plan? Do you just let it go to a moderate to slow burn to go through the remaining part of the pop that is hard core. W+
    hat 20% in US and maybe 10% in Canada? It won't be about protecting lives but controlling the rate so health care system is not over loaded. Maybe even have covid parties when rates are too low?
    Assuming we never develop better vaccines or treatments, we should have clear indicators in 3-6 months. Either Covid can die out the way almost every other vaccinated disease has, or it continues to circulate widely despite widespread vaccination. In the first case, those who've never been infected never will be, besides unlucky ones who catch the imported cases. In the second case, we'll all eventually catch it, and we'll try to manage it like flu to not overload healthcare. The current US goal seems to be manage it like flu; I think we should manage it like measles, but I'm a kook.

    What will happen in the next 3-6 months is some countries and regions will achieve very high vaccination rates (near 100%), perhaps also boosting for the additional protection vs infection. I hope a bunch of them demonstrate falling covid cases*. If they don't, then we're stuck with managing it, which includes inventing better vaccines and treatments.

    Trouble with Covid compared to flu is Covid will happily infect most of us in one year, while flu gets only ~10%. Also, Covid appears to cause a lot more permanent damage than flu, though I haven't seen solid numbers (covid damages multiple organs that flu doesn't). For those vaccinated, Covid's IFR looks to be lower than flu (~0.05 vs ~0.1). For the unvaxxed, it's several times higher. And it's worth noting many healthcare systems cannot maintain standards of care despite current precautions - that lowers every health outcome.

    That's how I see the technical outlook; the political outlook I leave to others.

    * Regions with travel or commuters may be unable to lower cases due to imports, where otherwise cases would fall. This will muddy the picture and confuse the politics.

  3. #13953
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Think about what you just wrote there. Obviously, if there is nothing else to do there is nothing else to do. Fortunately we are nowhere near the point of having nothing left to do. The US is vaccinating nearly 700K people per day. As time goes on being unvaccinated will become increasingly inconvenient and most hard core antivaxers will quietly get the shots. The goal was, is, and will be protecting lives, protecting the health care system, and preventing the spread of the virus--all of the above. I don't know if you're serious about Covid parties--but people who get covid at covid parties are going to die, clog up the health care system, and spread the virus--exactly the opposite of what the goal is. (I'm old enough to remember when girls were deliberately exposed to rubella but that's a special case. At a time when most people eventually got rubella and because reinfection was unheard of, it made sense for girls to get rubella before they had a chance to get pregnant, because of the devastating effects of rubella on the fetus.)

    BTW, Sacramento teachers union has come out in favor of a requirement being considered by the school board to mandate vaccination for all students--based on age and FDA approval for under 12's of course.
    Ok 700k that is about .8% a week to fully vaxxed and that may be sustained as the affect of mandates and passports kick in. Death rate doesn't seem to move the needle. Next may be larger $$ incentives like raise everyone's taxes $1000 and give $1100 deduction to those who are vaxxed? But in the end reading anti vaxx stuff and yes that is probably a minority who are really hard core but that does seem to be central to their being. So lets say the hard limit is 10% in US.

    I am somewhat serious about Covid parties. If that hard core 10% is serious about how bad the vax is and how meh covid is then isn't it a rational decision on their part to go to a party? And time their going to a party when there is a safety net there to catch them if they end up really sick. Before MMR and CP vax parents did that all the time and I'm not sure what the cumulative death rate from having MMR &CP would be, but might it be higher than covid , certainly for kids? Parents just accepted the risk against the higher risk of getting those diseases later in life. In away this was Alberta's plan to learn to live with covid, but the vaxx rate was still to low and the ICU capacity is significantly lower than the US , about 1/5 even after doubling.
    Mrs. Dougw- "I can see how one of your relatives could have been killed by an angry mob."

    Quote Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy View Post
    dougW, you motherfucking dirty son of a bitch.

  4. #13954
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    Quote Originally Posted by old_newguy View Post
    I’d argue this would not be different than what is currently happening.
    Yes in the States the infection rate dwarfs other countries. Lots of people getting the cough jab rather than the safer needle jab. But at 400 per mil that only 1 % per month so it will take a long time to burn through the ... what was the Hillary term deplorable.
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    Mrs. Dougw- "I can see how one of your relatives could have been killed by an angry mob."

    Quote Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy View Post
    dougW, you motherfucking dirty son of a bitch.

  5. #13955
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    Damn that's cold.

    Locally, we track age adjusted rates of infection, hospitalizations, and deaths by vaccination status. Our county is by far the largest in state by population at 2.4 million but has 2nd lowest infection rate by County. By zip code, the lowest infection rates are well correlated with vaccine uptake, in both vaxxed and unvaxxed. County wide we are 30cases/100,000 but that breaks out to 10/100k in vaxxed and 78/100k in non vaxxed. In the highest vaxxed zips its 4/100K for vaxxed and 10/100k in nonvaxxed. Hyperlocal herd immunity already exists here.

    What this shows for you skeptics is how a vaccine works to limit transmission once enough of the population is immunized. It also shows that even with 99.4% of infections now Delta across the US, and despite breakthrough cases, transmission does not occur in vaxxed populations any where near the same level as unvaxxed.

    All this fret about boosters but the reality is we could snuff this out country wide if enough people were willing to do their part.

    Most of the current modeling is suggesting this current Delta may be the last wave, but with regional bobbles thru March 2022. Then we get to less than 9k infections/day and below ~100/deaths a day nation wide.

    Worldwide my take is it will be 2024 before its under control enough to be a minor health threat more akin to influenza.
    Thanks for continuing to post here Mofro. Always interested for your take.

  6. #13956
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    I think part of the issue with people like Skidog, MTU and Montucky is that they donít deal with complex systems / issues and therefore expect a level of accuracy that is unobtainable. This also leads to them thinking a credible source is equal to non-credible sources because ďtheyíve both been wrong beforeĒ. It reminds about the people who bitch about the weathermen for not being 100% accurate all the time. It is a really hard job, that involves a almost infinite number of variables, and they get it right the vast majority of the time. But instead of applauding them they will dismiss the experts opinion. They also have no idea of how accurate they actually are, and when quizzed will usually thing the weathermen get it wrong more than they actually do.

    I think this is rooted in experience, especially in your job. If your job involves a simple task that you should be able to perform correctly 99.5% of the time, people assume they every job is like that.


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  7. #13957
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    I think part of the issue with people like Skidog, MTU and Montucky is that they don’t deal with complex systems / issues and therefore expect a level of accuracy that is unobtainable. .....But instead of applauding them they will dismiss the experts opinion. They also have no idea of how accurate they actually are, and when quizzed will usually thing the weathermen get it wrong more than they actually do.

    I think this is rooted in experience, especially in your job. If your job involves a simple task that you should be able to perform correctly 99.5% of the time, people assume they every job is like that.


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    True but even people who do make decisions into uncertainty can be very unobjective about the uncertainty/difficulty of other peoples jobs. But agree that those who really don't have to make judgement decisions seem to be the least objective about change and uncertainty because they never really deal with it.

    Adding to this the media has created this anecdotal narrative where people's stories are more important than the overall numbers or overall good. Numbers don't cause emotion and emotion retains viewers. Noticed this when the first vaxxs came out and media covered every hard reaction but put no context to it. Then had to start put a statistical context to these bad outcomes.
    Mrs. Dougw- "I can see how one of your relatives could have been killed by an angry mob."

    Quote Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy View Post
    dougW, you motherfucking dirty son of a bitch.

  8. #13958
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougW View Post
    Ok 700k that is about .8% a week to fully vaxxed and that may be sustained as the affect of mandates and passports kick in. Death rate doesn't seem to move the needle. Next may be larger $$ incentives like raise everyone's taxes $1000 and give $1100 deduction to those who are vaxxed? But in the end reading anti vaxx stuff and yes that is probably a minority who are really hard core but that does seem to be central to their being. So lets say the hard limit is 10% in US.

    I am somewhat serious about Covid parties. If that hard core 10% is serious about how bad the vax is and how meh covid is then isn't it a rational decision on their part to go to a party? And time their going to a party when there is a safety net there to catch them if they end up really sick. Before MMR and CP vax parents did that all the time and I'm not sure what the cumulative death rate from having MMR &CP would be, but might it be higher than covid , certainly for kids? Parents just accepted the risk against the higher risk of getting those diseases later in life. In away this was Alberta's plan to learn to live with covid, but the vaxx rate was still to low and the ICU capacity is significantly lower than the US , about 1/5 even after doubling.
    Do you not understand that Covid parties produce what we are trying to avoid--death, serious illness, spreading of a lethal virus, overwhelming the health care system. People in heavily unvaccinated enclaves are in effect having covid parties now. It's a disaster. What you're talking about in the 50's--deliberately exposing girls to rubella, boys to mumps, because of the more serious disease later in life happened because there was no vaccine and because in the age groups being exposed the risk from the disease was very low. Measles was more serious for children--no one with a brain was exposing children to measles. I grew up in the 50's. I was never deliberately exposed to any of the usual childhood diseases. I believe I had all of them except measles. (And multiple bouts of strep until I had my tonsils out.) I do remember hearing about girls being exposed to rubella, but there was never an organized effort to promote "pox" parties--it was something some pediatricians may have encouraged and parents did on their own.

    The covid situation is different. You are talking about deliberately exposing people already in a high risk group--adults--to a lethal disease. There is absolutely no upside to this. None. Zero. It's like burning your house down so a wildfire doesn't burn it down. Did you even hear about parents throwing polio parties in the 50's? Didn't think so. (I had that one too--young enough to be non paralytic).

    As far as how we control Covid 19--that's not going to happen any time soon because our medical system treats people on a reactive, case by case basis. We do not have the public health systems necessary to produce and maintain herd immunity level of vaccination. The only way many diseases have been controlled (only smallpox has ever been eliminated) has been maintaining high levels of immunity by requiring children to be vaccinated to go to school--a policy which is a de facto public health system. And I fear that vaccine resistance for all vaccines will continue to grow.

    I read a good article in the New Yorker about how Costa Rica has merged its public health and medical care systems. The system is still being rolled out but most of the country is covered. Every citizen is assigned to a group with a public health worker who makes 1-3 visits yearly depending on vulnerability. The group sees to their preventative care and sees to public health needs like vaccination (CR is currently at 40%), clean water, etc as well as arranging medical care as needed. CR is "weak" when it comes to specialists and complex care but life expectancy is higher than in the US.
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ats-the-secret
    That's the kind of system that will eventually get Costa Rica to a much higher vaccination percentage than we ever will--once they have enough vaccine.

  9. #13959
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    I think part of the issue with people like Skidog, MTU and Montucky is that they don’t deal with complex systems / issues and therefore expect a level of accuracy that is unobtainable. This also leads to them thinking a credible source is equal to non-credible sources because “they’ve both been wrong before”. It reminds about the people who bitch about the weathermen for not being 100% accurate all the time. It is a really hard job, that involves a almost infinite number of variables, and they get it right the vast majority of the time. But instead of applauding them they will dismiss the experts opinion. They also have no idea of how accurate they actually are, and when quizzed will usually thing the weathermen get it wrong more than they actually do.

    I think this is rooted in experience, especially in your job. If your job involves a simple task that you should be able to perform correctly 99.5% of the time, people assume they every job is like that.


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    I see your point. Perhaps there’s an equally valid explanation: they are deeply, irredeemably stupid. :grin: although I like Austin, so…
    Last edited by frorider; 09-25-2021 at 08:54 PM.

  10. #13960
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    Ran to the feed store this afternoon. Big sign on the door about wearing masks due to state mandate but all workers were unmasked. I jokingly made a comment then asked if they were vaxxed. Nope - unmasked and unvaxxed. They said they weren't worried.
    ďWhen you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


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  11. #13961
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    I mean, duh…feed store, unlimited ivermectin.

  12. #13962
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    Ran to the feed store this afternoon. Big sign on the door about wearing masks due to state mandate but all workers were unmasked. I jokingly made a comment then asked if they were vaxxed. Nope - unmasked and unvaxxed. They said they weren't worried.
    I walked up to a fireworks tent July of 2020. Not only were they unmasked inside. They were standing right at the entrance to the tent half inside smoking. As soon as I saw that I turned around and went the other way..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  13. #13963
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    Quote Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy View Post
    I mean, duh…feed store, unlimited ivermectin.
    LOL!!!



    Quote Originally Posted by SumJongGuy View Post
    I walked up to a fireworks tent July of 2020. Not only were they unmasked inside. They were standing right at the entrance to the tent half inside smoking. As soon as I saw that I turned around and went the other way..
    I think the smoking thing would have worried me more.
    ďWhen you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkiní Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  14. #13964
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    I think part of the issue with people like Skidog, MTU and Montucky is that they don’t deal with complex systems / issues and therefore expect a level of accuracy that is unobtainable. This also leads to them thinking a credible source is equal to non-credible sources because “they’ve both been wrong before”. It reminds about the people who bitch about the weathermen for not being 100% accurate all the time. It is a really hard job, that involves a almost infinite number of variables, and they get it right the vast majority of the time. But instead of applauding them they will dismiss the experts opinion. They also have no idea of how accurate they actually are, and when quizzed will usually thing the weathermen get it wrong more than they actually do.

    I think this is rooted in experience, especially in your job. If your job involves a simple task that you should be able to perform correctly 99.5% of the time, people assume they every job is like that.


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    People who deal wiTh complex systems are just as prone to outright dumbfuckery outside their domaine of expertise, if not more prone to it. Stop sniffing your own taint maggots.

  15. #13965
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    Quote Originally Posted by frorider View Post
    I see your point. Perhaps thereís an equally valid explanation: they are deeply, irredeemably stupid. :grin: although I like Austin, soÖ
    I hear the music scene is great


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  16. #13966
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    Ran to the feed store this afternoon. Big sign on the door about wearing masks due to state mandate but all workers were unmasked. I jokingly made a comment then asked if they were vaxxed. Nope - unmasked and unvaxxed. They said they weren't worried.
    most people arenít worried about a virus that has killed less than 20,000 people under the age of 39Ö

    20,000 (being generous adding up all the deaths under the age of 39)/355,000,000 is approximately .00005 deaths? My math might be wrong but Iíd take those odds of dying from Covid after already having Covid. My antibodies are fine and even if they wane off, thereís proof that Iíll still be less sick and less likely to die in the hospital due to my antibodies.

    I literally have a better chance of getting killed by lightning, struck by a drunk driver, or getting sunstroke than Covid killing me.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...vid-by-age-us/ - number of deaths by age from covid

    https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-inju...odds-of-dying/ - possibility of dying from other things than Covid.

    there are literally a million things that could kill me every day that have a higher chance than Covid. This is why people arenít afraid if theyíre under 39 and in good health.

    if you guys want to refute those facts; Iíd like to see sources and legitimate arguments. Iíll be here waiting.

  17. #13967
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    People who deal wiTh complex systems are just as prone to outright dumbfuckery outside their domaine of expertise, if not more prone to it. Stop sniffing your own taint maggots.
    Iíve actually scene taint maggots before. We were debriding some obese diabeticís scrotum. You know, Fournierís gangrene.


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  18. #13968
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    https://twitter.com/mbaldauff/status...572863494?s=19

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  19. #13969
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtuhockey33 View Post
    most people arenít worried about a virus that has killed less than 20,000 people under the age of 39Ö

    20,000 (being generous adding up all the deaths under the age of 39)/355,000,000 is approximately .00005 deaths? My math might be wrong but Iíd take those odds of dying from Covid after already having Covid. My antibodies are fine and even if they wane off, thereís proof that Iíll still be less sick and less likely to die in the hospital due to my antibodies.

    I literally have a better chance of getting killed by lightning, struck by a drunk driver, or getting sunstroke than Covid killing me.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...vid-by-age-us/ - number of deaths by age from covid

    https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-inju...odds-of-dying/ - possibility of dying from other things than Covid.

    there are literally a million things that could kill me every day that have a higher chance than Covid. This is why people arenít afraid if theyíre under 39 and in good health.

    if you guys want to refute those facts; Iíd like to see sources and legitimate arguments. Iíll be here waiting.
    Iíll paraphrase here;

    Me, me, me, fuck everyone else




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  20. #13970
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    Quote Originally Posted by ticketchecker View Post
    Iíll paraphrase here;

    Me, me, me, fuck everyone else




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    Itís unreal how stupid that guy is.


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  21. #13971
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtuhockey33 View Post
    there are literally a million things that could kill me every day that have a higher chance than Covid. This is why people aren’t afraid if they’re under 39 and in good health.
    The risk to people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s has always been less about death and more about hospitalization and long term complications. Even though most people in those age groups survive they now make up most of the hospitalized Covid patients in the country.

    According to the CDC out of an estimated 60 million infections in the 20s-through-40s age group 1.5 million have ended up in the hospital.

    FWIW, I'm in this age group and a ~3% risk of hospitalization if infected is more than enough reason to get vaccinated. Even though the risk of death is low, there are plenty of studies showing younger adults are still at risk of serious organ damage.

  22. #13972
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    The risk to people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s has always been less about death and more about hospitalization and long term complications. Even though most people in those age groups survive they now make up most of the hospitalized Covis patients in the country.

    According to the CDC out of an estimated 60 million infections in the 20s-through-40s age groups 1.5 million have ended up in the hospital.

    FWIW, I'm in this age group and a ~3% risk of hospitalization if infected is more than an enough reason to get vaccinated.
    He doesnít seem to understand that coronavirus is contagious, and even if he is fine, the people he interacts with may not be fine when he passes it to them.

    Hence the extreme stupidity and raging selfishness that defines his character.


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  23. #13973
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    Ok , If , if if ... a person has gone down that anti vax rabbit hole the a rational thing would be to infect them selves when the case load was low. Not that I support that train of thought as being vaxxed is certainly the lower risk option but if a person has gone down that rabbit hole then ... well if your a fatie the your fucked

    of course many problems as are you sure you got infected? be responsible about spreading after you might have caught etc

    I have debated anti an vaxxer on FB and they say they are good with a 2% chance of dying. Really its more like 1% at your age at most but good luck with that. Don't seem to understand that 1% means 100 people walk in to a room and 99 leave.
    Mrs. Dougw- "I can see how one of your relatives could have been killed by an angry mob."

    Quote Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy View Post
    dougW, you motherfucking dirty son of a bitch.

  24. #13974
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47bp View Post
    Itís unreal how stupid that guy is.
    Bad at math too. I see his point though. Even having the wrong risk estimate likely doesn't change his opinion that it's an acceptable risk. If covid killed 1% evenly across all demographics, there'd still be plenty of personal risk takers.

    There was a comic around somewhere... Boomer doesn't want to do anything for climate change. Boomer's kid doesn't want to do anything for covid. Can't see any concern past my own nose so f@ck you, eh?

    The disablement number deserves quantification. Dr. Griffin on TWiV's clinical update said 10% unable to return to work again this week, but mentioned in passing without discussing 10% of what. The implication seemed to be 10% of those PCR positive. If that's the case, it deserves far more attention than it gets. Hard to believe that could be slipping past public health and politicians, which leaves me uncertain it's correct. Maybe I'll send him a request to clarify.

  25. #13975
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    16% neurological impacts has come up enough to explain some math difficulties and make 10% unable to work seem more believable.

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