To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[summit]

I suppose the good news is most states have several months to figure it out. Also, several southern states are leading, so everyone else ought to have good warning if it gets bad. Who knows, maybe we hit herd immunity before the hospitals fill. My guess is there's still too many people vulnerable. I'm guessing about a third have natural immunity, and half have vax, The two groups overlap, so maybe 65% have had either covid or vax. This wave could put us to 85%, and maybe that ends the pandemic phase.

You are being wildly optimistic if you think 1/3 of the population have natural immunity. Only in the worst hit areas is it that high.

The Wuhan Wild Type had a much lower R0. The math could work for herd immunity with that. Not with Delta and worse...

You won't ever hit herd immunity with a R0 of ~7 until you have true immunity of 85-90% or more for the entire population, and there would still be clusters due to uneven distribution of immunity in the population. You will never achieve that with a Ve of 88% and only 75% of the population eligible for vaccination and 15-50% of them unwilling.

The Pandemic ends when the prevalence vs consequences decrease to the levels of a bad seasonal influenza, and then we will say COVID is an endemic (seasonal respiratory virus) instead of pandemic illness.

[teledad]

Great (long) thread on booster shots, breakthrough cases and efficacy against variants: https://twitter.com/celinegounder/st...223843333?s=21

[skaredshtles]

I suppose the good news is most states have several months to figure it out. Also, several southern states are leading, so everyone else ought to have good warning if it gets bad.

[Toadman]

The trajectory is concerning

This Lambda variant is concerning. When we get to the Zulu variant and the Zombie apocalypse is in full swing, we will all look back on how great things were when were only at the Lambda variant.

[The AD]

I'm not saying we should shutdown. I'm saying the current trajectory means the hospitals will fill, and the shutdown will follow.

In some places, yes. I'm just hoping places with high vaccination percentages will avoid this because both their rates of infections and hospitalizations should be greatly depressed compared to last year.

[Adolf Allerbush]

In some places, yes. I'm just hoping places with high vaccination percentages will avoid this because both their rates of infections and hospitalizations should be greatly depressed compared to last year.

Just thinking of things like the crowds recently at sporting events makes me think the vaccines are working pretty well. If we took a similar approach last summer I suspect the spike in cases would have been much greater, for example. I know you weren't saying last summer is the same as this summer but wanted to point out that it's a much different situation these days.

[Adolf Allerbush]

This Lambda variant is concerning. When we get to the Zulu variant and the Zombie apocalypse is in full swing, we will all look back on how great things were when were only at the Lambda variant.

You Mus sure know how to party.

[The AD]

Just thinking of things like the crowds recently at sporting events makes me think the vaccines are working pretty well. If we took a similar approach last summer I suspect the spike in cases would have been much greater, for example. I know you weren't saying last summer is the same as this summer but wanted to point out that it's a much different situation these days.

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

[bodywhomper]

The high profile vaxed “superspreader” events in Washington DC are pretty interesting.

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

Don’t forget the ~19% of the population that can’t get vaxed (kids) or are immunosuppressed.

[rideit]

[mtuhockey33]

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

The country has literally been held hostage by people who are overweight, have health issues, and the elderly for literally the last year and a half…

[The AD]

The country has literally been held hostage by people who are overweight, have health issues, and the elderly for literally the last year and a half…

I have a friend who died from Covid who was none of those things, so kindly fuck off.

[mtuhockey33]

I have a friend who died from Covid who was none of those things, so kindly fuck off.

Sorry for your loss. I’ve lost a friend to the yearly influenza due to complications with pneumonia. Shit happens. It’s life man. You’re not going to protect everyone from everything. Let people live their life lol

[goldenboy]

So, does everyone who could get a vax, chooses not to, then dies of Covid automatically get a spot in the Darwin hall of fame?

[rod9301]

I have a friend who died from Covid who was none of those things, so kindly fuck off.

I'm sure he's joking, nobody's that stupid

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[bagtagley]

You Mus sure know how to party.

[schuss]

The country has literally been held hostage by people who are overweight, have health issues, and the elderly for literally the last year and a half…

Nah, more like idiots who don't want to listen. If people could be relied on with stuff like mask mandates, vaccination and other shit, spread wouldn't be so high and we'd be facing a lot less risk at present.

[PB]

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

Agree, however we need a practical way to differentiate vaxed from non-vaxed. Pretty sure I've been lied to numerous times.

[basinbeater]

They should put microchips in the vaccine that broadcast a small signal that can be read by others with a microchip, and get an either red or green light in the implanted visual aid to appear above the head of the people in field of view. Green? Good to fuck, red stay away.

sent from Utah.

[XXX-er]

mix the vax in with the tattoo ink

[rideit]

[cs2-6]

CDC is a weighty source for disease-related information but it is not a be-all, end-all.

I agree. The CDC is generally a well-respected scientific organization, but their duty is to contain this disease, not to be a clearing house for virus research.

And the fuck is with all this mask and CDC heated debating the past 2 or 3 pages? When the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines came out, CDC recommended the vaccinated continue to wear masks. Because of this, they got a lot of heat for deincentivizing vaccination. Then they changed their guidelines to permit the vaccinated to go maskless in nearly all situations. I think this was the right call, and probably what they should've gone with once the data for the mRNA vaccines was released, because of how awesome the vaccines are. They provide so much greater protection to the individual compared to masking and social distancing, and are the only way this pandemic ends at a public health level. Although, masking indoors still makes sense for those with comorbidities, even if vaccinated; although it's probably belt and suspenders.

Now more than ever before, "my mask is to protect you (unvaxed)" is the truth.

[Benny Profane]

Rand Paul, and both ron johnson and Ron Johnson for that matter, need to be force fed their own large intestines.

As time goes on, you can sympathize with Rand Paul's neighbor doing that body slam more and more.

[Benny Profane]

I don't usually watch ABC but caught it last night and I will say they were in hyper overdrive with all the Covid resurgence stuff. Neither CBS or NBC carried the same coverage - they were much more subdued. Maybe just switch off ABC. PBS is a nice alternative to all three.

Fear is money in the media world.

[skaredshtles]

As time goes on, you can sympathize with Rand Paul's neighbor doing that body slam more and more.

Srsly. That guy is a fucking douchebag of the highest order.