To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

**The AD** · 07-20-2021, 11:15 PM

Just keep in mind cases surged last summer, too. With only about half the country vaccinated we shouldn't expect anything to be different than it has been for the last 18 months. Just look at the fluctuations over that time and expect the same thing again. However, I do think the total number of infections will decrease due to vaccinations and hospitals and deaths will be greatly decreased. I think it's really time to start concentrating on those metrics now. We have a solution now. Shutting back down doesn't make sense. Getting more people vaccinated does.

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**Jax** · 07-20-2021, 11:37 PM

I doubt Colorado is going to shove that genie back into the bottle. Revenge tourism bringing in the revenue.

**LongShortLong** · 07-21-2021, 01:00 AM

I'm not saying we should shutdown. I'm saying the current trajectory means the hospitals will fill, and the shutdown will follow. (I don't think Americans will like dying without care, and that leaves shutdown.) If you have a plan to get the other half vaccinated, yes we should do that instead. If you have a plan to use other preventive measures, that's also good - masks, mild closures, better therapeutics, reach herd immunity, anything. Currently the pandemic airplane is losing altitude again and the engines are sputtering.

**Summit** · 07-21-2021, 01:31 AM

The trajectory is concerning

**LongShortLong** · 07-21-2021, 03:40 AM

I suppose the good news is most states have several months to figure it out. Also, several southern states are leading, so everyone else ought to have good warning if it gets bad. Who knows, maybe we hit herd immunity before the hospitals fill. My guess is there's still too many people vulnerable. I'm guessing about a third have natural immunity, and half have vax, The two groups overlap, so maybe 65% have had either covid or vax. This wave could put us to 85%, and maybe that ends the pandemic phase.

**Summit** · 07-21-2021, 08:25 AM

Originally Posted by LongShortLong

I suppose the good news is most states have several months to figure it out. Also, several southern states are leading, so everyone else ought to have good warning if it gets bad. Who knows, maybe we hit herd immunity before the hospitals fill. My guess is there's still too many people vulnerable. I'm guessing about a third have natural immunity, and half have vax, The two groups overlap, so maybe 65% have had either covid or vax. This wave could put us to 85%, and maybe that ends the pandemic phase.

You are being wildly optimistic if you think 1/3 of the population have natural immunity. Only in the worst hit areas is it that high.

The Wuhan Wild Type had a much lower R0. The math could work for herd immunity with that. Not with Delta and worse...

You won't ever hit herd immunity with a R0 of ~7 until you have true immunity of 85-90% or more for the entire population, and there would still be clusters due to uneven distribution of immunity in the population. You will never achieve that with a Ve of 88% and only 75% of the population eligible for vaccination and 15-50% of them unwilling.

The Pandemic ends when the prevalence vs consequences decrease to the levels of a bad seasonal influenza, and then we will say COVID is an endemic (seasonal respiratory virus) instead of pandemic illness.

**teledad** · 07-21-2021, 08:47 AM

Great (long) thread on booster shots, breakthrough cases and efficacy against variants: https://twitter.com/celinegounder/st...223843333?s=21

**skaredshtles** · 07-21-2021, 09:16 AM

Originally Posted by LongShortLong

I suppose the good news is most states have several months to figure it out. Also, several southern states are leading, so everyone else ought to have good warning if it gets bad.

**Toadman** · 07-21-2021, 09:18 AM

Originally Posted by Summit

The trajectory is concerning

This Lambda variant is concerning. When we get to the Zulu variant and the Zombie apocalypse is in full swing, we will all look back on how great things were when were only at the Lambda variant.

**The AD** · 07-21-2021, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by LongShortLong

I'm not saying we should shutdown. I'm saying the current trajectory means the hospitals will fill, and the shutdown will follow.

In some places, yes. I'm just hoping places with high vaccination percentages will avoid this because both their rates of infections and hospitalizations should be greatly depressed compared to last year.

**Adolf Allerbush** · 07-21-2021, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by The AD

In some places, yes. I'm just hoping places with high vaccination percentages will avoid this because both their rates of infections and hospitalizations should be greatly depressed compared to last year.

Just thinking of things like the crowds recently at sporting events makes me think the vaccines are working pretty well. If we took a similar approach last summer I suspect the spike in cases would have been much greater, for example. I know you weren't saying last summer is the same as this summer but wanted to point out that it's a much different situation these days.

**Adolf Allerbush** · 07-21-2021, 09:44 AM

Originally Posted by Toadman

This Lambda variant is concerning. When we get to the Zulu variant and the Zombie apocalypse is in full swing, we will all look back on how great things were when were only at the Lambda variant.

You Mus sure know how to party.

**The AD** · 07-21-2021, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by Adolf Allerbush

Just thinking of things like the crowds recently at sporting events makes me think the vaccines are working pretty well. If we took a similar approach last summer I suspect the spike in cases would have been much greater, for example. I know you weren't saying last summer is the same as this summer but wanted to point out that it's a much different situation these days.

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

**bodywhomper** · 07-21-2021, 10:39 AM

The high profile vaxed “superspreader” events in Washington DC are pretty interesting.

Originally Posted by The AD

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

Don’t forget the ~19% of the population that can’t get vaxed (kids) or are immunosuppressed.

**rideit** · 07-21-2021, 10:51 AM

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**mtuhockey33** · 07-21-2021, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by The AD

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

The country has literally been held hostage by people who are overweight, have health issues, and the elderly for literally the last year and a half…

**The AD** · 07-21-2021, 10:56 AM

Originally Posted by mtuhockey33

The country has literally been held hostage by people who are overweight, have health issues, and the elderly for literally the last year and a half…

I have a friend who died from Covid who was none of those things, so kindly fuck off.

**mtuhockey33** · 07-21-2021, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by The AD

I have a friend who died from Covid who was none of those things, so kindly fuck off.

Sorry for your loss. I’ve lost a friend to the yearly influenza due to complications with pneumonia. Shit happens. It’s life man. You’re not going to protect everyone from everything. Let people live their life lol

**goldenboy** · 07-21-2021, 10:58 AM

So, does everyone who could get a vax, chooses not to, then dies of Covid automatically get a spot in the Darwin hall of fame?

**rod9301** · 07-21-2021, 11:00 AM

Originally Posted by The AD

I have a friend who died from Covid who was none of those things, so kindly fuck off.

I'm sure he's joking, nobody's that stupid

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**bagtagley** · 07-21-2021, 11:50 AM

Originally Posted by Adolf Allerbush

You Mus sure know how to party.

**schuss** · 07-21-2021, 11:57 AM

Originally Posted by mtuhockey33

The country has literally been held hostage by people who are overweight, have health issues, and the elderly for literally the last year and a half…

Nah, more like idiots who don't want to listen. If people could be relied on with stuff like mask mandates, vaccination and other shit, spread wouldn't be so high and we'd be facing a lot less risk at present.

PB · 07-21-2021, 01:40 PM

Originally Posted by The AD

Correct. The vaccine was the game changer. Every adult has now had ample time to get vaccinated and the vaccinated population of this country should no longer be held hostage by those who refuse to get vaccinated.

Agree, however we need a practical way to differentiate vaxed from non-vaxed. Pretty sure I've been lied to numerous times.

**basinbeater** · 07-21-2021, 02:19 PM

They should put microchips in the vaccine that broadcast a small signal that can be read by others with a microchip, and get an either red or green light in the implanted visual aid to appear above the head of the people in field of view. Green? Good to fuck, red stay away.

sent from Utah.