NBA 2020-2021, Let the Season Begin

[TahoeJ]

Kyrie is going to get traded for depth eventually.

[BmillsSkier]

Kyrie is going to get traded for depth eventually.

The realization of which probably occurred sometime around a minute into tonight's "Thank you 2016 Kyrie" video on the jumbotron. Seeing himself as peak-Kyrie, playing along with peak LeBron and Love, had to be a real reality check.

[NathanL]

I really try to avoid 538 when it comes to the NBA. Some of their stuff has been laughable.

Yeah, 538's frustrated me to no end. Their CARMELO stat was designed to reward inefficient, high-volume guys like Carmelo.

[MultiVerse]

The nice thing, if you're into that sort of thing, is 538's nba-raptor data is downloadable so anyone can see how it works for themselves and/or develop their own weightings. For what it's worth, below are the top 20 RAPTOR most valuable NBA single-season performances since 1976-77:

1 Michael Jordan 1991
2 LeBron James 2009
3 Michael Jordan 1989
4 Michael Jordan 1990
5 Stephen Curry 2016
6 Michael Jordan 1988
7 Michael Jordan 1993
8 Michael Jordan 1992
9 Michael Jordan 1996
10 Stephen Curry 2015
11 LeBron James 2010
12 LeBron James 2013
13 Chris Paul 2009
14 Kevin Garnett 2004
15 Dwyane Wade 2006
16 Draymond Green 2016
17 John Stockton 1992
18 Larry Bird 1986
19 Tim Duncan 2003
20 John Stockton 1991

If you're a Warriors fan does seeing both Steph and Draymond on the list sway your opinion or is Steph currently at #19 for this season still making you salty?

https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/d...ter/nba-raptor

[54-46]

Cavs > Nets Big 3 = bwahahaha!

[54-46]

Thanks for info, but 538 lost me in 2016 with their election prediction. That said, how would you weight someone’s performance and change the RAPTOR?

[cinnepa]

EMBIIIIID!!!

[Brock Landers]

Thanks for info, but 538 lost me in 2016 with their election prediction. That said, how would you weight someone’s performance and change the RAPTOR?

538 is right wayyyy more than the best weatherman.

[TahoeJ]

If you're a Warriors fan does seeing both Steph and Draymond on the list sway your opinion or is Steph currently at #19 for this season still making you salty?

No, I wrote them off a long time ago. Not saying their approach is completely wrong (identifying legendary seasons like the ones MJ, LeBron and Steph put up isn't exactly a major accomplishment) but there are significant flaws. At the end of the day so much happens in basketball that doesn't show up in the box score, or even on some deeper level stats. They treat the NBA too much like baseball IMO.

As for Steph being 19th right now, actually, yes, that's a great example of their approach being exposed. He's being double and triple teamed on almost every possession (or box-and-oned), making the right plays and setting up his teammates (which doesn't always mean he gets an assist on the stat sheet). Last night's game against the Spurs was a great example - he was drawing so much attention and it allowed his teammates to feast.

[BmillsSkier]

Cavs > Nets Big 3 = bwahahaha!

It was a most heartwarming homecoming for Kyrie.

[MultiVerse]

No, I wrote them off a long time ago. Not saying their approach is completely wrong (identifying legendary seasons like the ones MJ, LeBron and Steph put up isn't exactly a major accomplishment) but there are significant flaws. At the end of the day so much happens in basketball that doesn't show up in the box score, or even on some deeper level stats. They treat the NBA too much like baseball IMO.

As for Steph being 19th right now, actually, yes, that's a great example of their approach being exposed. He's being double and triple teamed on almost every possession (or box-and-oned), making the right plays and setting up his teammates (which doesn't always mean he gets an assist on the stat sheet). Last night's game against the Spurs was a great example - he was drawing so much attention and it allowed his teammates to feast.

Thanks for info, but 538 lost me in 2016 with their election prediction. That said, how would you weight someone’s performance and change the RAPTOR?

538 is right wayyyy more than the best weatherman.

The weatherman analogy makes sense because these are forecasts not predictions. If the weather forecast says there's a 30% chance of rain what that means is when the models saw a similar pattern in the past it rained one out of three times.

That's why the 2020 election forecast was worse than the 2016 forecast. Even though Hillary was favored In 2016, the 538 model gave Trump a 30% chance of winning the electoral college. In other words, if you ran the 2016 election three times odds are Trump would win at least once. Those are pretty good odds. In contrast, for 2020 538 forecast a larger Biden victory. Even though they got it right they were more wrong in 2020.

Another way of describing what TahoeJ is getting at is the failure of analytics for Houston. The Rockets tried to treat the NBA like MLB and even though it worked in the regular season it fell apart in the playoffs. However, the analytics that make up the RAPTOR rating are just things like points above average per 100 possessions for offense, defense, plus-minus data, wins above replacement all rolled into a matrix.

If Steph is sometimes stymied after being double and triple teamed on almost every possession then that shows up in the numbers. It's not a qualification on Steph's playing ability, it's a quantification of what's happening.

[plugboots]

Cavs > Nets Big 3 = bwahahaha!

I was watching whichever game and during halftime, they showed all those highlights of the big three doing all kinds of crazy things, not a single Cavs mention, and then right at the end as the highlights were ending, it showed the Cavs up by 4? at the end of the third quarter. Oh yeah, it’s a team game, I guess. Cool to see the Cavs won.
The W’s kinda looked like the W’s last night. If you squint a little.

[TahoeJ]

If Steph is sometimes stymied after being double and triple teamed on almost every possession then that shows up in the numbers. It's not a qualification on Steph's playing ability, it's a quantification of what's happening.

Sure, and I'm saying too much happens on a basketball court that doesn't translate into statistics. There's an over-reliance on the numbers vs. the eye ball test and actually watching games.

Here's an example. Back in 2015 I think it was, Harden showed up way out of shape and was playing the worst defense of his career, which is really saying something. But his lines in the box score looked great. So in hindsight, some people say he was robbed for not making an All NBA team that year and they list all of his stats, but if you actually watched what happened it wasn't even much of a debate at the time.

[Woodsy]

Jazz just keep on keeping on, extending their win streak

Mitchell went 6 for 8 from 3-point range, scored 36. Mike Conley scored 20, Clarkson had 19

Rudy Gobert had 12 points, 11 rebounds + four blocked shots, seventh game this yearn with at least four blocks. But not worth the $ right? The Australian Stephen Curry Ingles had a season-high nine assists.

Hudge game Sunday against the dubs

[MultiVerse]

Last night Donovan Mitchell became the fastest player in NBA history to make 600 threes. To mark that milestone there was a weird running commentary starting with Reggie then Kenny, Shaq, and Chuck about how Mitchell is an All-Star but will never be a Super-Star because he's 'just' a scorer. In the post game interview Shaq told Mitchell as much.

[TahoeJ]

Hudge game Sunday against the dubs

Why is it a huge game?

[Woodsy]

Why is it a huge game?

Right now the Jazz are one of the best teams in the league with the Associations longest win streak. Be good to keep that up against a team that seems better than their record, and while they might not be the dubs of old still boast one of the best players in the league and one of the best coaches.
Til both those dudes are gone, dubs will always be a big game for any Western Conf contender. Its still early days but if the playoffs started tomorrow, this is the match up.

summary, riding a win steak there are a lot of other teams I would rather be coming to town.

[teleee]

Last night Donovan Mitchell became the fastest player in NBA history to make 600 threes. To mark that milestone there was a weird running commentary starting with Reggie then Kenny, Shaq, and Chuck about how Mitchell is an All-Star but will never be a Super-Star because he's 'just' a scorer. In the post game interview Shaq told Mitchell as much.

How Mitchell didnt tell Shaq to fuck off is beyond me. You can tell he wanted to. And I am with Woody the game against the Warriors is a big game, despite the records and how they are playing the Warriors are still viewed as part of the NBA elite, and the Jazz are still seen as not having what it takes, as Shaq said to Mitchell.

[TahoeJ]

Warriors are just figuring things out right now and playing the long game. Kerr said straight up the other day that if he had to win a game tomorrow this wouldn’t be his starting lineup. So... don’t get too excited about the results of a game in January.

[BmillsSkier]

I was watching whichever game and during halftime, they showed all those highlights of the big three doing all kinds of crazy things, not a single Cavs mention, and then right at the end as the highlights were ending, it showed the Cavs up by 4? at the end of the third quarter. Oh yeah, it’s a team game, I guess. Cool to see the Cavs won.
The W’s kinda looked like the W’s last night. If you squint a little.

People are starting to take notice of how fun this young Cavs team is.

It'll be nice to watch them grow and get the full team back.

https://theundefeated.com/features/y...for-cavaliers/

Got rid of first round flyer and general nutcase Kevin Porter Jr. too:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ond-round-pick

[teleee]

Warriors are just figuring things out right now and playing the long game. Kerr said straight up the other day that if he had to win a game tomorrow this wouldn’t be his starting lineup. So... don’t get too excited about the results of a game in January.

Sorry, I am (as you know) a Jazz homer, I get excited about every game!

[Woodsy]

Warriors are just figuring things out right now and playing the long game. Kerr said straight up the other day that if he had to win a game tomorrow this wouldn’t be his starting lineup. So... don’t get too excited about the results of a game in January.

Totally get it, and not declaring us the best team outside LA yet, but it would be good to see Conely, et al keep up their play.

[54-46]

If I were a Jazz fan, I’d be excited, too. Never know how things will turn out. I think they’re a tier above the current Dubs, and possibly WCF material. I’m sure they will want to prove it. This is a “build year” for young and new Dubs; I don’t think they’re serious contenders.

That said, appreciate the respect for the remainder of that championship core. Hope Klay comes back next year close to fully ready and if so, Dubs can become serious contenders again.

[BmillsSkier]

Nets fans, make that back to back losses to the Cavs.

[Woodsy]

Nets fans, make that back to back losses to the Cavs.

That was great to see...
Nets fans? Do you know any Nets fans?
I have lived in the tristate 15 years and never met a Nets fan. Basom and I went to see a Nets v. Celtics game when they played in Newark ( wore my William's Jazz Jersey as he was a Net then)
There were significantly more Celtics fans than Nets fans in NJ
Maybe it changed in BKLYN, but noone I know