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  1. #1776
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    259
    Graupel on Donner Pass right now, FWIW.

    Don’t have much expectation for the weekend snow (I’ll take anything), just hoping the midweek stuff materializes.

  2. #1777
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    SoTahoe
    Posts
    138
    Model riders will be on it the next several days. Go Euro.

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  3. #1778
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    tahoe
    Posts
    3,301
    Choo-choo motherfuckers

  4. #1779
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Location
    Carson Shitty
    Posts
    214
    Boo-yah. You can feel the forecasters trying to keep the excitement at bay in their write ups. Kind of difficult to tamp that down when you look at the 6-7 day on open snow.

    Fortunately, seems like even the low-end for next week is semi-decent right now, where last time the models blew up there was at least one model showing basically no snow right up until the “storm”.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  5. #1780
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Truckee & Sonoma
    Posts
    12,622
    There's barely any accumulation so far, and already...

    "Eastbound I-80 traffic is being turned around at Alta and westbound I-80 traffic is being turned around at Truckee/Donner Gate due to multiple spin-outs and traffic collisions over Donner Summit."

    Gonna be lots of "oops" over the next week.

  6. #1781
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    16,630
    Donner Pass Rd WB was stop and go along the lake. Ambulances going by. Lot's of semis without chains--where do they think they're going to chain up.
    Truckee PD not doing their job.
    All these people are just going to get turned around at the Donner Lake Rd intersection.

  7. #1782
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Location
    NorCal
    Posts
    310
    Yikes
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  8. #1783
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Da Norf Lake
    Posts
    1,821
    Quote Originally Posted by HJ5 View Post
    Kind of difficult to tamp that down when you look at the 6-7 day on open snow.
    I just use ice water.

    But those forecaster guys are running anti-tamper software
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    Also, are you on the marketing team? Forecasts beyond 5 days are paywalled.
    Even sometimes when I'm snowboarding I'm like "Hey I'm snowboarding! Because I suck dick, I'm snowboarding!" --Dan Savage

  9. #1784
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Tahoe
    Posts
    13,924
    There was plenty of info on there today regarding the wednesday/thursday storm. Current models range from 2" to 5+" of water with snow levels under 5k for most of it. Good discussion of how the AR may or may not play into it.
    powdork.com - new and improved, with 20% more dork.

  10. #1785
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    6,128
    Giddy!

  11. #1786
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Tahoe
    Posts
    13,924
    And the train is already up to full speed as Colorado and Utah FB friends are posting the ECMWF pic of the AR hitting us 5 days from now.
    powdork.com - new and improved, with 20% more dork.

  12. #1787
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Cruzing
    Posts
    10,949
    already wetter than forecast down here. best of luck ya'll.

  13. #1788
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Location
    tahoe de chingao
    Posts
    731
    when this weds-thurs storm disappears on tuesday, blame vail. having to reserve weekdays is like actively jinxing that shit every time someone books one

  14. #1789
    Join Date
    Feb 2019
    Posts
    2
    Whelp, i am washing my car, destroying my snowblower, and dancing my ass off

    Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

  15. #1790
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Location
    Carson Shitty
    Posts
    214
    Quote Originally Posted by lepistoir View Post
    I just use ice water.

    But those forecaster guys are running anti-tamper software
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    Also, are you on the marketing team? Forecasts beyond 5 days are paywalled.
    Haha, nah I'm just a normal dude got the subscription. Honestly main reason I got it was because of the write-up's that BA does. He goes into way more detail than he really needs to (especially if you look at the write-up's for other regions), and I appreciate that he keeps up periodic ramblings about winter through the summer. Obviously I know the subscription cost doesn't go to him, but it makes me feel better having $20 skin in the game reading his write-up's. And I mean you do get all the other stuff on the website. Plus, reading the 10-day forecast when the pattern is this active is like doing drugs. Ya got the head rush, ya got hallucinations of 10 feet of snow at the crest by next Sunday. And then the hangover afterwards when it doesn't exactly pan out. It's great.

    In addition to what powdork said, estimate for the Wednesday-Thursday system will come out tomorrow, I'm pretty sure. At least for Wednesday, not sure if he'll bring in Thursday too since it's all part of the same system.

  16. #1791
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Cruzing
    Posts
    10,949
    Choo chooooooo

  17. #1792
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    California
    Posts
    2,612
    At this point all I am really hoping for is enough snow that touring is possible without having to balance the need to be on more southerly aspects for warming and those same aspects having questionable coverage. Low expectations keep everyone pleasantly surprised.

    Outside of the standard shit show of traffic and roads I'll be very curious to see how the snowpack develops over the next week or so. Down at lake level it is not like there is much of a base for it to bond to and up high I could see some real spacial variability setting in depending on what shots are holding snow and how the storm comes in as temps and structure are concerned. Last thing we need is to get a bunch of hero snow that looks tantalizing but is the avalanche equivalent of of Russian roulette. A scenario where the two choices are skiing on a few ft of unconsolidated pow over dirt/rock or a few ft thick slab that will rip out if you breathe on it wrong would be less than ideal.
    Three fundamentals of every extreme skier, total disregard for personal saftey, amphetamines, and lots and lots of malt liquor......-jack handy

  18. #1793
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    16,630
    Four inches of dust on crust at SB this afternoon after the traffic shitshow was taken care of. Nothing was sticking to the base, on piste or off, as expected. All in all a delightful change, glad there's more on the way, the roads should be fun.

  19. #1794
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    tahoe
    Posts
    3,301
    A shit ton of hero snow works for me and much preferred over 9k snow levels with the pineapple variety

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    Any type of snow will do


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  20. #1795
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    388
    BA and OS are nothing more than a hype machine at this point...
    Learn how to read your own maps...


    https://weatherstreet.com/states/gfs...y-forecast.htm
    I'm cool with this, as long as you Kirkwood Bro Brah's stay away from Heavenly when 88 closes- TahoeBc

  21. #1796
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    746

    THE OFFICIAL 20/21 TAHOE SKI & SNOWBOARD THREAD. PANDEMIC SCHMANDEMIC!

    Dropping in to leave the 18z GFS op run here... praise jahllegretto

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    Not trying to jinx y’all...have fun!

  22. #1797
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    tahoe
    Posts
    3,301
    ^^^^^ why? He looks at em all and gives a great summary that I can read in a few minutes of all the models. Just cuz his sites popularity leads to more crowds on pow days at resorts, that doesn’t mean he’s not good at it and is a great resource. Hate the game, not the player

  23. #1798
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Cruzing
    Posts
    10,949
    ^^^^^this. not reading is not stopping anyone else from reading. I'm on a non pow day adventure this year. Hope to show up a day after the bluebird pow day once it all gets tracked out and everyone goes home. If I'm gonna lift ski, rather do it with no one making lines.

    A ton of hero snow will settle down as long as we don't get stripped by the evil E. A 9K plus pineapple event wold shut the season down.

  24. #1799
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    SLT
    Posts
    220
    As someone who followed BA's forecasting from 2011-2017 (when I swore off long-range forecasts altogether), I concluded that there's something wrong with the models during drought times. The forecasts were consistently wetter than the reality during the drought, and long range forecasts especially so. I wouldn't say long range forecasts are useless, but like any recreational drug, they should be used with care and awareness that some poor souls just can't handle it. 0" so far here in the Keys.

  25. #1800
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Da Norf Lake
    Posts
    1,821
    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Four inches of dust on crust at SB this afternoon after the traffic shitshow was taken care of. Nothing was sticking to the base, on piste or off, as expected. All in all a delightful change, glad there's more on the way, the roads should be fun.
    Slightly concerning lack of bonding. I was in castle valley up to castle pass and it seemed to be bonding well. E and S aspects mostly. If sun comes out tomorrow/Sunday, would be good to get observations if anybuddy sees naturals in the sun. If this doesn't bond, another cold six inches and then a big dump could be a big problem. But we'll huck that cliff when we get to it.
    Even sometimes when I'm snowboarding I'm like "Hey I'm snowboarding! Because I suck dick, I'm snowboarding!" --Dan Savage

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