WASATCH STOKE, CONDITIONS, OBSERVATIONS and ASSORTED DRIVAL 20-21

[Dshack89]

We get to believing that we deserve first tracks, that the reward of being an “expert” is that we can out think all the clueless newcomers, and finesse our way through land mines in the snowpack. This works to a point, but when the backcountry is busy and the (powder skiing) resource is scarce, and when social context requires one to demonstrate one’s prowess, our quality of decision making suffers. Add a fucked-up snowpack, and it becomes deadly. When the powder is endless and/or you have nothing to prove (to yourself or anyone else) enjoying the day within the limits of the conditions is easy.

Great points. In a wierd way, the presence of more newbies seems to have made those with experience more confident -- and more prone to believing the mountains care about their expertise.

[MTT]

It seems most of these are Solo skier's or two guys who usually tour together.

And then the rare occasion where a group of top shelf skier's get into trouble when everyone knew better.
The insedent at Crystal mountain some time back was a real eye opener!!

The human variables seem to cover the gambit.

The common denominator seems to be done it many times and gonna do it today. I guess it's like heroin. Once you try it you keep doing it until you run out of road. Sooner or later?

[JTG4]

Just read through the reports on Avalanche.org for all skier/snowboarder incidents out west this season, 15 mostly experienced skiers or riders lost, so far. As I was reading reports another snowmobile avalanche fatality was posted. Sobering.

Enlightening, too. If only there were a way to make every skier/rider intending to enter the backcountry perform such a read. It generally highlights what we all know this year, that a PWL exists. However, it puts an emphasis on how widespread that PWL is, from the Rockies to the Wasatch, all dating back to a two week period of cold, dry, high pressure at the end of November/beginning of December, which created a layer of weak facets in a low early season snowpack. Since then the relatively low snow year to dated has buried that dangerous layer of facets, but hasn’t been near enough to even begin to consolidate it.

This is science, folks. Science tells us, and accidents to date confirm, that this is a snowpack you currently can’t beat. You can’t even employ mitigating strategy. If you think otherwise you are fooling yourself, I don’t care how knowledgeable you are. Reading the reports, seeing the pictures of terrain, a good portion of it relatively low angle, slides below tree line, with skiers caught entering slopes from above and while skinning from below, with remote triggers and sympathetic releases, almost 10% of observed avalanches the last two weeks on south facing terrain. Beat it...no, you are lucky if you survive it.

We talk about risk tolerance, but this year, right now, requires a much longer, harder look at those words that are often casually thrown around. Assume if you go out and intend to do anything other than meadow skip 25 degree slopes with no exposure from above, achieved via a skin track that doesn’t have any exposure from above, even if you make (traditionally) “smart” choices, that your significant others/children/parents/friends won’t see you alive again. Do you really want to roll the dice with your life on the pass line?

No one wants to hear that, but it’s really that simple. None of us want to read any more fatal avalanche reports, not any more than you want to be the subject of one. Dial it back, live to ski another spring/season.

RIP to the departed, prayers to the loved ones.

[Gunder]

I always see the discussion about all the newbies who are gonna get killed. But it appears that the most experienced long time skiers are the ones getting killed.
What am I missing here?
We bring up new people invading the backcountry every time we read about another skier with decade's of experience getting killed

The flip side is the more you know the easier it is to talk yourself and others into thinking it’s safe. As soon as you try to “out smart” avalanche problems especially pWL’s you are going to get spanked. The only true way to manage these is with proper terrain management. Sometimes that even Requires staying home or out of the backcountry entirely until nature takes its course.

[MultiVerse]

The definition of inexperienced versus experienced seems pretty loose. Wilson Glades, where yesterday's slide happened, goes big sliding full width and full track every five years or so. On the other hand it doesn't look like big terrain, it's named a glade after all. The main clue to its danger is the pseudo cornices from cross loading along the ridge where everyone puts in the skinner from the Millcrek side. But it always looks like that even when it's safe.

I don't know, it's one thing to say anybody with experience wouldn't ski anything northerly in the Wasatch right now. It's another thing to say what looks like an otherwise benign slope goes big every half decade or so and should always be avoided whenever there's a PWL.

[JTG4]

For those who have never seen it, this is a good read on heuristics and backcountry skiing in avalanche terrain.

http://www.sunrockice.com/docs/Heuri...0IM%202004.pdf

[123ski]

I know I’ll get flamed for this, but Maybe the real answer is to stop making skiing so accessible to out of state skiers, which has pushed our local expert skiers to the backcountry.

I know we need tourism dollars, but out of state ikon skiers don’t spend real money when they come to town anyway - especially at the resorts themselves.

The current resorts can’t even support the 2x population growth that’s occurred since the last real acreage was opened 20+ years ago (mineral basin and The Canyons expansion)

Throw on top of it extremely cheap skiing for out of town skiers via Ikon and Epic (which is also too cheap for local jongs as well) and it’s no wonder all of our expert skiers are starting to abandon resort skiing.

I know it’s controversial, don’t shoot me, try to temper your emotional response,but the solution should be:

1) NOT INTERCONNECT, but actually open some Net New resorts. Heritage Provo, AF, SF, Oquirrrhs, Lambs, White Pine, Snake Creek, Cardiff, Guardman Flats, Big Mountain, Porter Fork, Thousand Peaks, consider everything and let’s actually see if something could support a resort and determine how much pressure it could take off of our current resorts.

2) STOP THE JONGS. Get rid of ikon and epic. Make them go back to buying their Costco 5 packs.

3) INCREASE PASS PRICES. People don’t generally backcountry ski to save money. Skiing is cheaper than ever before on an inflation adjusted basis. People go to the backcountry to avoid crowds. Price increases reduce crowds.

[Brock Landers]

Yeah all the ikon skiers out in the backcountry.

[monkeywrenchMoose]

Yeah all the ikon skiers out in the backcountry.

I've got no dog in this fight (i.e. I don't know that I necessarily agreee with 123ski). But I will say to you, re-read his first sentence in its entirety.

The argument you're making is a non sequitur.

[123ski]

Yeah all the ikon skiers out in the backcountry.

You can’t read. It’s expert skiers dying in the backcountry because they were pushed out of their home resorts by ikon skiers.

That’s obviously not the case for everyone.

But nobody becomes expert skiers without starting at the resort first.

And the number one reason to leave the resort is overcrowding.

Primarily Caused by multi resort passes and population growth


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[Brock Landers]

“Pushed our local expert skiers to the backcountry”.

To do what, make bad decisions? It isn’t that crowded...

[raisingarizona13]

Mandatory vasectomies at birth, when a man decides he wants to become a father there should be a committee that interviews them and based on fairly easy and reasonable standards can get a reverse.

Birthing limits. 1 child per person per couple. After limits have been reached the couple must be sterilized.

The state of Utah would have a shit fit.

Things are getting fucked. So fucked that I'm starting to think policies like that are necessary.

[123ski]

“Pushed our local expert skiers to the backcountry”.

To do what, make bad decisions? It isn’t that crowded...

I’d contend that it IS that crowded.

I’d also imagine most of you can relate to the following.

My friends and I all started backcountry skiing in earnest in the early 2000s as a way to extend Powder skiing beyond the storm cycle. We’d ski inbounds on storm days and the day after, and then once the resort was fully tracked out and snow began to settle we’d head into the backcountry.

Now many of my friends, feeling that it’s a waste of time to stand in 2.5+ hour tram lines that used to only be 1+ hours long, are opting out of season passes altogether and heading into the backcountry DURING the storm cycle. These are EXPERT skiers who got fed up with the current crowds. They take avalanche courses and generally know what they are doing, but their skiing ability still greatly exceeds their decision making capabilities sometimes. I don’t ski with them anymore.


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[123ski]

Mandatory vasectomies at birth, when a man decides he wants to become a father there should be a committee that interviews them and based on fairly easy and reasonable standards can get a reverse.

Birthing limits. 1 child per person per couple. After limits have been reached the couple must be sterilized.

The state of Utah would have a shit fit.

Things are getting fucked. So fucked that I'm starting to think policies like that are necessary.

Well at least you are keeping your mind open to ALL POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS


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[JTG4]

And the number one reason to leave the resort is overcrowding.

Primarily Caused by multi resort passes and population growth

So, 40 and 50 year old skiers with decades of touring experience are there because of resort overcrowding and multi-resort passes?

Interesting.

Has the backcountry become more crowded? Yes. Have the things you mentioned contributed to that? Sure. However, I disagree that overcrowding is, or ever has been, the number one reason to leave the resort.

Maybe we need to make the distinction between “expert skiers in the backcountry” and “experienced, knowledgeable, well prepared backcountry skiers”, two very different things. The biggest JONGS, IMHO, would be supposed experts who jump the resort boundary, uneducated and unprepared, just to escape the overcrowding.

[oldskibum]

Yes, accident over East Maroon. Ten friends gone in an instant.

I'll assume Friend's Hut? Can't even imagine CB and Aspen losing 11 people in an instant, especially back then when both communities were much smaller.

Anyway, super sad situation there in Utah, here in CO, and elsewhere. Vibes to all friends and family and RIP to the deceased.

[powdork]

The definition of inexperienced versus experienced seems pretty loose. Wilson Glades, where yesterday's slide happened, goes big sliding full width and full track every five years or so. On the other hand it doesn't look like big terrain, it's named a glade after all. The main clue to its danger is the pseudo cornices from cross loading along the ridge where everyone puts in the skinner from the Millcrek side. But it always looks like that even when it's safe.

I don't know, it's one thing to say anybody with experience wouldn't ski anything northerly in the Wasatch right now. It's another thing to say what looks like an otherwise benign slope goes big every half decade or so and should always be avoided whenever there's a PWL.

But it goes way more often than that and you don't just have to worry about the huge slides. There was a skier triggered slide there just over a month ago on a considerable day.
https://utahavalanchecenter.org/avalanche/56664

[Shaaarrrp]

Who can't remember the great powder runs they've had in their life time.
And need more

Well said

[123ski]

However, I disagree that overcrowding is, or ever has been, the number one reason to leave the resort.

It is quite possible that neither my view

“that crowding is what leads people to backcountry skiing”;

or your view

“That something else besides over crowding, but definitely not over crowding, but something else I didn’t define in my counter argument”

Is correct.

It would be interesting to determine what the actual motivating factor is for a majority of people. I’d still contend that it is overcrowding, but that’s just from my life experience which is obviously different than yours.


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[MultiVerse]

But it goes way more often than that and you don't just have to worry about the huge slides. There was a skier triggered slide there just over a month ago on a considerable day.
https://utahavalanchecenter.org/avalanche/56664

Sure, but if you follow the avi reports slides like your example were happening everywhere on those aspects. That's pretty common here early in the season with a PWL. What makes Wilson Glades more dangerous compared to a lot of other terrain in Millcreek is both how big it can go and how infrequently that happens when the snowpack is deeper.

In the next drainage over, people often get caught and carried in places with names like 'depth hoar bowl' while the Wilson Glades area is skied safely.

[brutah]

You can’t read. It’s expert skiers dying in the backcountry because they were pushed out of their home resorts by ikon skiers.

That’s obviously not the case for everyone.

But nobody becomes expert skiers without starting at the resort first.

And the number one reason to leave the resort is overcrowding.

Primarily Caused by multi resort passes and population growth


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This shit has now come full circle.... The PWL and recent avy deaths is all the ikon pass' fault.

GTFO with this bullshit. What a stupid post.

I've been quietly reading this thread and there are some really good posts/discussion (as well as overly vocal clueless ones) about yesterday's accident but this is a leap too far.

Vibes to the victims and their families in yesterday's accident. Many of us are grieving for those lost, both yesterday's accident and the prior week, and I've had some good private conversations within my ski circle. Stay safe out there.

[kathleenturneroverdrive]

It would be interesting to determine what the actual motivating factor is for a majority of people. I’d still contend that it is overcrowding, but that’s just from my life experience which is obviously different than yours.

Addressing root causes is impossible. If you asked 10 people why they tour you'd get 10 different answers.

It's far easier to actually find ways to address the reason people die - which is largely a result of a lack of education and/or fatal decision-making errors. And I'm not saying that from some high horse - I've made lots of mistakes in the bc. Anyone who says they haven't is lying.

[powdork]

Sure, but if you follow the avi reports slides like your example were and are happening everywhere on those ascpects.

I think that was my point. They shouldn't have had any reason to think the slope was safe. It's a slope that slides regularly and it was a day when everything was going big as they had documented. To me it is beyond reasoning that you could find 8 people willing to tour there that day. And then add the fact that for some reason they were all in the line of fire at the same time. It boggles the mind.


also, your post was edited after my reply so it doesn't match any more

[JTG4]

“That something else besides over crowding, but definitely not over crowding, but something else I didn’t define in my counter argument”

While it’s most likely that this particular discussion inevitably ends in ‘agree to disagree’, it’s fair to ask that I define my something else.

I suspect a bigger percentage of backcountry skiers are drawn to the pursuit out of a love/passion/respect for the mountains, and much like you the desire to explore and apply that love/passion/respect to find remote, pristine places to make (more) powder turns or conquer ski mountaineering lines. I was drawn to the backcountry by the added beauty and challenge it applied to a sport I love. Not because of overcrowding.

[123ski]

If you asked 10 people you'd probably get 10 different answers. It's entirely impractical to try to address the root cause(s). Far easier to actually find ways to address the reason people die - which is a lack of education and/or fatal decision-making errors.

You don’t think it would be helpful to also remove people from the backcountry on high/extreme danger days by giving them a more reasonable alternative?

I’d also imagine if you asked 1,000 people you’d find that 2 or 3 cohorts exist.

Cohort 1:

Looking for something new to ski. Like the quiet of the backcountry. Sense of adventure. Etc.

Cohort 2:

Left resorts because too crowded. Used to backcountry ski days after a storm, now forced to do it during a storm because resorts are too crowded.

Cohort 3:

Some other reason.


If my hypothesis is even CLOSE to true, you’d remove 25-50% of backcountry skiers on higher danger days by addressing the problem of overcrowding at resorts.

Maybe my hypothesis is way off base. I don’t think it is. Would be interesting to do the work to find out.


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