2020-21 Orygun: The Optimist’s Thread

[river59]

I am surprised that it hasn't gone totally out of control yet given how dry it is out there. I keep checking the plume and it hasn't changed much. If anything, it looks smaller than this am.

Fingers crossed.

Fuck the people who violated the burn ban.

[Hood26]

I am surprised that it hasn't gone totally out of control yet given how dry it is out there. I keep checking the plume and it hasn't changed much. If anything, it looks smaller than this am.

Fingers crossed.

Fuck the people who violated the burn ban.

Is fire suppression within the scope of ski area permit? I would think they have the right to protect their infrastructure. Put a fucking Cat on that shit stat.

[puma]

Problems if it is not out before winds hit imo given humidity levels and moisture in the forests right now...

.HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PDT TUESDAY
ABOVE 2000 FEET...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts 55 to 65 mph. Gusts
to 75 mph over peaks and ridges.

* WHERE...South Washington Cascades and Northern Oregon Cascades.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PDT Tuesday.

[puma]

Wow.

From Portland NWS -

Looking at the big picture, the longwave upper level pattern is beginning to amplify over the Pacific as a very strong upper level ridge noses north toward Alaska. This upper ridge is presently a sprawling area of 500 mb heights above 590 dam which extends from the Four Corners region northwest to Oregon, then westward into the Pacific out to about 150W. The western portion of this upper ridge had already been displaced northward as part of a Rex Block, with a dry upper low to its south in the general vicinity of 35N/135W. Further west, a vigorous upper low south of the Aleutians is becoming part of an amplifying upper trough as jet stream energy from the Kamchatka Peninsula digs into its west side.

This amplifying pattern is something we often look for to diagnose winter arctic/modified arctic high pressure systems digging down through western Canada and into the Interior Northwest. These systems are often responsible for our winter cold east wind events, with strong high pressure establishing east of the Cascades and driving strong east winds through the Columbia Gorge and occasionally downslope winds spilling over the Cascade Crest if the cold pool is deep enough. Well, it appears the atmosphere hasn`t looked at the calendar because models show excellent agreement that this overall setup will occur Monday and Tuesday, resulting in a potentially historic East Wind event. "September Arctic" high pressure squares off against a very strong inverted pressure trough along the coast, which is strengthening as exceptionally hot weather over California expands northward.

This is probably about as close to a continental-style "clash of the air masses" as we can get, especially in early September. And models have been very consistent the past 48 hours in saying the battle ground between these two air masses will set up right over our forecast area as both air masses advance on one another. Pressure and thermal gradients will intensify to levels more typical of a December or January arctic air mass banking up against the east slopes of the Cascades, with the 06z NAM/GFS maintaining an astounding 22 to 26 mb pressure gradient between Spokane and North Bend late Mon night/early Tue morning. If anything, these forecasted MSLP gradients have strengthened a bit over the past 24 hours. In addition to the pressure gradients, there will be an extremely strong east-west thermal gradient packed against the Cascades, with 06z NAM 850 mb temps around +5 deg C near The Dalles to near +19 deg C at Detroit Lake.

The end result is an early September weather pattern that probably occurs in this magnitude only 2-4 times a century. Compared to 1979-2009 climatology, 00z NAEFS and EPS ensemble means suggest this offshore wind event is literally off the charts for this time of year, and by many measures. As mentioned above, the 00z ensemble mean easterly wind component of both models are in the neighborhood of 7 to 8 standardized anomalies for this time of year (late Aug-mid Sept). With all this in mind, east to northeast winds Monday night and Tuesday will be exceptional for this time of year. This comes after a prolonged period of drying of fuels, save the exception of Saturday`s brief switch to onshore flow.

There are many concerns regarding this event; chief among them is the extreme fire danger that results from desiccating offshore winds of near record strength for late summer. Since this AFD is already ridiculously long and late, I won`t get into the weeds regarding specifics except for one: Just after midnight Monday night, the 06z NAM continues to show two rather broad maxima of 70-80 kt east winds extending down to 900 mb over the western portions of the Columbia Gorge, across much of the PDX metro area, and again along the northern Oregon Coast. These magnitudes would be worth of a high-end east wind event any time of year. Plus, mixing Tuesday will be more efficient than in winter due to the stronger early September sun.

So... here`s what we are going to do for now: We will be issuing a High Wind Watch for elevations above 2000 feet in the S WA/N OR Cascades, and above 1000 feet in the adjacent foothills. The North Oregon Coast and Coast Range will also be getting High Wind Watch for elevations above 1000 feet, where terrain will be most exposed to the strong winds. The Greater Portland and Vancouver metro area will be getting a Wind Advisory. Timing for all zones will be 8 PM Monday to 1 PM Tuesday. Winds should back off a bit Tuesday afternoon as diurnal heating weakens cold pool high pressure over the Columbia Basin.

This is all in addition to the numerous Fire Weather highlights we have. We will be extending the Red Flag Warning which begins at noon Monday out to Wednesday evening for all zones. Given these historic and threatening fire weather conditions, it is imperative to be EXTREMELY careful with fire leading up to and during this wind event, as any existing fires will very likely spread quickly once these strong winds set in. Please visit your local fire agency`s webpage for actions you can take to help mitigate the threat of fast-spreading fire in your area.

Not to be lost in all this talk of wind are the exceptionally hot temperatures expected along portions of the Oregon Coast due to this extreme offshore wind event. Areas Tillamook southward will likely reach the 90s during this event, and it isn`t out of the question that a location or two along Oregon`s central coast reaches the triple digits. Meanwhile, usually-warmer Hood River will be enjoying much cooler temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Exceptional weather pattern, indeed."

[jonesy]

34°f Tuesday night in C.O. Smokey AF tonight

[benk]

Is this what happens when you start the season thread before the snow falls? Hopefully this gets suppressed before reaching any infrastructure but am excited about the prospect of new tree skiing in the area

[k2skier112]

Earthquake and dust-storm...
https://www.skihood.com/en/the-mount...am-live-stream

[river59]

^ makes me feel like I'm tripping

Temira is reporting that the fire in Jack's Woods is out!

[::: :::]

Power went out at my place in portland about 30mins ago
It better come back on today before it gets hot again — also have no way of working unless it does

[Sharon Needles]

Was it precautionary or a down line?

Lane Electric turned everything off at 1am. We got it back at 7:30

[jonesy]

There's a cool down a coming. Musta seen 10 different out a state plates in Bend am.

[dan_pdx]

Power went out at my place in portland about 30mins ago
It better come back on today before it gets hot again — also have no way of working unless it does

Sorry to hear that. We've had some flickers here in SE Portland, but haven't gone down yet. Hope you guys get your power back soon!

As far as the thread topic...yes, maybe there will be some new gladed skiing in Heather as a result of today's fire, and a Craigslist cornucopia when all the new BC skiers/boarders find out how hard it is to earn your turns. Should be great for the manufacturers too. Also, if we see some limits on day ticket sales, with priority given to pass holders, there could be some great in-bounds powder days ahead for pass holders!

[::: :::]

ETA for power is tomorrow at 9a; cause listed as “wind”; so prolly tree branch came down somewhere important

Got ice from store so food will keep

Gas grill works for dinner just gotta keep it in a lower mode so I’m not sending a hot food ember somewhere

It’s like camping but with a bed and a roof — I’d go camp/fish if the wilderness wasn’t in high fire/wind mode


Glad to hear Heather got controlled

[river59]

Mt Hood NF is closed to all entry for fire danger.

I have never seen them do that before!

[thefortrees]

What a year, eh?

[Sharon Needles]

I just saw that Eugene has the worst air quality on Earth right now

[jonesy]

Bad deal for Vida,Blue River,Mill City. No vegetation on those hillside this Winter with heavy precipitation. That's not good.

[Tap]

Shalom, bitches.

[k2skier112]

[2_1_3]

Help me with Oregon mountain geography!


What ranges did I miss (some noted with ? marks) or F-up the name of? Glaciated regions don't have snow water equivalent values, in case you're wondering what's going there with "conspicuous" gaps. Thanks in advance!

+++Vibes for the fire situation. Damn. In the spirit of optimism, more 'well spaced' tree skiing?

[TBS]

You missed Blue Mountains, Wallowas, and Steens mtn.
And there’s only one cascade range, although it has a wet side and a dry side

[Hood26]

Just label them Burnt, Burning, Will Burn because of the equally stupid, dialectically opposite big interests who deny climate change and the others who block all responsible land management and stewardship in the name of environmentalism.

To be slightly more helpful to your cause. Check what you have labeled Bilke Cr (I think that is what I read) to Trout Cr and Whit Horse

Also, why delineate the Strawberries and Ochocos from the rest of The Blue if not other significant sub ranges like The Elk Horns?

[2_1_3]

You missed Blue Mountains, Wallowas, and Steens mtn.

How so? Feel free to mark up my errors in MS paint

And there’s only one cascade range, although it has a wet side and a dry side

See Figure 1, but open to interpretations. I would have just written Cascades if left to my own devices, but then came across this subset of naming.
https://hess.copernicus.org/articles...3367-2014.html

[2_1_3]

To be slightly more helpful to your cause. Check what you have labeled Bilke Cr (I think that is what I read) to Trout Cr and Whit Horse

Thanks, will do! Having some names to look into is helpful.

Also, why delineate the Strawberries and Ochocos from the rest of The Blue if not other significant sub ranges like The Elk Horns?

Good point, will revise accordingly.

[Hood26]

The question mark in the upper NE is still the The Blues. Here is a helpful source https://oregonencyclopedia.org/artic.../#.X1nA9yUieEc

Also, here is the list of all the ranges:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...nges_of_Oregon