View Poll Results: Is the 20/21 ski/ride season over?

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  • Of course it's cancelled, we are hosed!

    56 21.54%
  • Only if we start putting up statures of Dr. Fauci

    12 4.62%
  • I've cancelled my plans on travel, but still hope my local will open.

    89 34.23%
  • Full steam ahead, I wear a mask when I ski/ride.

    103 39.62%
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  1. #476
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    I think you can count on that.

    The wild card is, what if people won't travel to the ski towns to fill the beds, eat out and ski?

    Again, no one knows what this season will look like.
    Think of all the privately owned lodges, hotels and homes that are in the rental pool. Can't rent a room when its possible the guest can get a lift ticket. At resorts with large season pass sales how can you hold back tickets for lodging guests and tell a season pass holder to go pound sand?

  2. #477
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    It is becoming really apparent that ski resorts are going to try to kill off the season pass post covid and force everyone into their profit centers of day tickets and private lessons. Any sort of reservation system completely destroys the value of having a pass in the first place. Good luck finding a discounted day ticket anywhere this year by the way.
    What makes you say this? I feel like the Epic and Ikon passes completely changed the landscape and it would surprise me if Vail and Alterra were ready to abandon that business model right now. It was working great before Covid hit.

  3. #478
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    Once they announce this lottery system, they're going to have to give people the chance to pass on the season and get their money back. Otherwise there will be lawsuits for sure.

  4. #479
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    I kinda hope they do a morning and afternoon reservation system. Like half my days are 1:30-4 after work laps. Plus it will be funny on powder days when all of the front range is trying to go skiing and they get there at 11 after waiting in traffic then get to take one run. Maybe they’ll stop coming.

    But really yeah who the fuck knows how this will play out, one things for sure this season will be an interesting one. And likely a shitshow.

  5. #480
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    At resorts with large season pass sales how can you hold back tickets for lodging guests and tell a season pass holder to go pound sand?
    Just like that.

    I skied at an area renowned for telling seasons pass holders to go pound sand.

    Epic/Ikon and those types of products will change, they will not go away.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  6. #481
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    What makes you say this? I feel like the Epic and Ikon passes completely changed the landscape and it would surprise me if Vail and Alterra were ready to abandon that business model right now. It was working great before Covid hit.
    Boyne (Big Sky, Sugarloaf, Sunday River, Loon, and more) has already stopped selling season passes and they control millions of skier visit days. Magic has gone to a reservation system and is openly saying no discounts on day tickets and they are only doing private lessons. Resorts large and small are both heading this way.

    If you thought that Ikon and Epic were going to stay as cheap as they are indefinitely once they reach critical mass, then I have a bridge to sell you. Covid has allowed them to expedite this process and then some.

    Oh the independents? Here is Aspen saying, better ski early December, because we are then going to block your pass so the high rollers can spend their money.

    https://www.aspentimes.com/news/aspe...l-this-winter/
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  7. #482
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    Quote Originally Posted by TahoeJ View Post
    Once they announce this lottery system, they're going to have to give people the chance to pass on the season and get their money back. Otherwise there will be lawsuits for sure.
    No doubt about this. They will need to offer refunds if they can't guarantee that you can ski the days they said you would be able to ski when they sold you the pass. We'll all probably have to make a decision whether to play the reservation game and ski less days as a result, or just take our money back and basically fuck ourselves out of skiing any sort of popular resort this year.

    My local small hill told me in an email that they will prioritize pass holders at the expense of day tickets if that's what it comes to. They will "never" turn away a pass holder. We'll see but that's what they say for now.

  8. #483
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    So I just called Big Sky central reservations to book a few Saturday nights in December. The person in reservations would not necessarily know, but she said there has been nothing brought up or discussed about any sort of reservation system for skiing, never heard anything about a lottery in meetings, no whispered rumors among employees, nothing. "I assume they would have told us if something like that was being considered." FWIW. I do not know who Bunion's source is, but if they are discussing this plan among the higher ups, they are keeping it very quiet.

  9. #484
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Boyne (Big Sky, Sugarloaf, Sunday River, Loon, and more) has already stopped selling season passes and they control millions of skier visit days. Magic has gone to a reservation system and is openly saying no discounts on day tickets and they are only doing private lessons. Resorts large and small are both heading this way.
    Holy shit, that's insane. For small resorts season pass sales are the financial influx needed to keep operations rolling in the off season. How are the little guys going to bridge that September - December cash drought?
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  10. #485
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    It is becoming really apparent that ski resorts are going to try to kill off the season pass post covid and force everyone into their profit centers of day tickets and private lessons. Any sort of reservation system completely destroys the value of having a pass in the first place. Good luck finding a discounted day ticket anywhere this year by the way.
    this makes zero sense. Over the last 2 decades, the entire business model has been based on season pass sales, especially in the last few years. Now you think their goal is to kill the season pass?
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
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  11. #486
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    No it hasn't. The entire business model has been based on maximizing revenue from the average skier. The average skier skis maybe 5ish days a year, with 100k+ annual income, and limited time available, usually planned in advance. Guess who isn't going to give a shit about the new requirements and can afford to pay? Epic and Ikon were solely plays to lock as many of these people into their resort groups ecosystem. Post covid, they won't need to. Look at the demand for any other outdoor pursuit.

    Who do you think they care about? The upper middle manager who pays full freight for the family to ski 1 week a year or the TGR bro who gums up the lifelines skiing 30-100 days on their pass, brown bags it, and doesn't take lessons?

    You can already here it from the marketing groups. "More old school experience". Want to make a bet what most people think about when they hear that? I'd wager its smaller lift lines. Ski resorts will justify making you pay for day tickets by saying, hey, look at all that extra room you have now and no riff raff. People paying 200 bucks a ticket are going to like that, I guarantee it.
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  12. #487
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    No it hasn't. The entire business model has been based on maximizing revenue from the average skier. The average skier skis maybe 5ish days a year, with 100k+ annual income, and limited time available, usually planned in advance. Guess who isn't going to give a shit about the new requirements and can afford to pay?

    Who do you think they care about? The upper middle manager who pays full freight for the family to ski 1 week a year or the TGR bro who gums up the lifelines skiing 30-100 days on their pass, brown bags it, and doesn't take lessons?
    They don't care about either, they care about the guaranteed revenue. The only part of your post I agree with is that the entire business model has been based on maximizing revenue. At $700 a pop, many people buy a pass because they have a vacation planned and maybe they have a local hill they can get some laps in. It has been a windfall for the resorts; it's the entire reason the mega-pass has blossomed. What you are suggesting is that they have suddenly discovered that the old model, the one where season passes were exorbitant and the idea was to sell day tickets, is suddenly now the true path to profitability? Utterly ludicrous.

    They are going to do the best they can in covid world, and the fallout may change some of the business model for sure, especially in the short term. But no way is the goal to do a 180 on the overall business model.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  13. #488
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    Passes have never been a focus of their business model. We agree revenue is. If ski resorts figure out they can get all their revenue at a higher average daily rate, they are going to take it. You make similar revenue from 1/2 the skier visits and make up the savings with reduced payroll liabilities, benefits, etc and season passes will become basically non-existent.
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  14. #489
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    wrong.

  15. #490
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    When Mammoth first started early season pass discounts, it was
    To amass capital for improvements when they needed the
    Money instead of waiting till the next season when everyone was normally lying out the cash


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  16. #491
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    So I just called Big Sky central reservations to book a few Saturday nights in December. The person in reservations would not necessarily know, but she said there has been nothing brought up or discussed about any sort of reservation system for skiing, never heard anything about a lottery in meetings, no whispered rumors among employees, nothing. "I assume they would have told us if something like that was being considered." FWIW. I do not know who Bunion's source is, but if they are discussing this plan among the higher ups, they are keeping it very quiet.
    Employees not knowing what upper management is discussing should not be a surprise. Honestly any of this is speculation at this point as I am sure they are going to hold out as long as they can before making any announcements, especially if they are draconian.

  17. #492
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    Hell, some kids and parents still dont know if they're doing in class college experience, or Zoom, or hybrid, or whatever, here, in mid August. And now that some schools have been open in Stupidville Georgia for a week or so, some are shutting down, because of, well, stupidity. But they've already cut the checks for that college year. Got that one covered.

    That's why I think it was silly to rush into an Ikon or Epic or season pass back in April/May for a nominal discount. Now they have your money, and you really have no idea if you'll be riding a lift at all this season.

  18. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Passes have never been a focus of their business model. We agree revenue is. If ski resorts figure out they can get all their revenue at a higher average daily rate, they are going to take it. You make similar revenue from 1/2 the skier visits and make up the savings with reduced payroll liabilities, benefits, etc and season passes will become basically non-existent.
    You're forgetting the "guaranteed" part. Millions and millions in revenue before snow ever flies, often from overly-optimistic people who don't break even on cost and sometimes never use their pass at all. Making sweeping predictions right now is a fool's errand, but if the goal is to reduce skier days while staying revenue-neutral I'll put money raising season pass rates, not phasing out season passes while increasing day ticket prices.

  19. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    You're forgetting the "guaranteed" part. Millions and millions in revenue before snow ever flies, often from overly-optimistic people who don't break even on cost and sometimes never use their pass at all. Making sweeping predictions right now is a fool's errand, but if the goal is to reduce skier days while staying revenue-neutral I'll put money raising season pass rates, not phasing out season passes while increasing day ticket prices.
    Part of the epic/ikon value proposition was to sell season passes to consumers in the Midwest & East for use at local hills, then sell them rooms/etc on their vacation out west. There’s only so much you can charge for a shit hill season pass before this breaks down

  20. #495
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    So basically the day ticket crowd will be fukd. Do those people even exist anymore?
    Quote Originally Posted by paulster2626 View Post
    <quietly puts hand up>
    I laughed...

    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Any sort of reservation system completely destroys the value of having a pass in the first place. Good luck finding a discounted day ticket anywhere this year by the way.
    As a daily skier, a rez system will indeed be problematic for me. I may or may not be able to cope with that.
    Actually, I did get 4 of those 1/2 off vouchers when I got my pass in the spring.



    Quote Originally Posted by TahoeJ View Post
    Once they announce this lottery system, they're going to have to give people the chance to pass on the season and get their money back. Otherwise there will be lawsuits for sure.
    At the moment JHMR's pass page says unlimited skiing for full boat, etc. Obviously that may change. The pass refund opportunity goes thru 10/15. If they change it up after that date, I expect these suits.

    @Benny - I'll get all but $45 bux back if I opt out in Oct., admin. fee - chump change.

    It may help to be in a state like Wyo with low covidz numbers and a republican Gov. who will likely push the envelope for the sake of the monies.

  21. #496
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    You can be damn well sure that Epic / Icon crunched those numbers years ago when they launched.

    I have no clue as to where this is going in the future for them.

    For the independents, early season pass sales are a way of guaranteeing a cash flow during an off season.

    Are areas going to go the golf model? Make you pay through the nose for exclusivity? I have a 'season' pass at the municipal course. It costs me $12 to walk a crowded under maintained course. Or, I could drive up the road and pay $200 a round for immaculate conditions. Or join a club for thousands per year?

    There is the Yellowstone club. Original club already went bankrupt. Others that tried that have too.

    Money is on Covid19 being a temporary condition. Don't think they will upend the entire business model permanently.

  22. #497
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    So I just called Big Sky central reservations to book a few Saturday nights in December. The person in reservations would not necessarily know, but she said there has been nothing brought up or discussed about any sort of reservation system for skiing, never heard anything about a lottery in meetings, no whispered rumors among employees, nothing. "I assume they would have told us if something like that was being considered." FWIW. I do not know who Bunion's source is, but if they are discussing this plan among the higher ups, they are keeping it very quiet.
    I have zero insight into what Boyne will do and have not been a manager or employee for that shitshow since 2001/02.
    That information came from a person in Mtn Ops at another ski area that has been discussing how their operations will function. They have been talking with the large ski operations in CO.

    My guess is Big Sky will probably attempt to just open and operate and try and figure it out, prior planning has never been their strong suit.

    At the current rate of spread anyone who thinks this season will be no different than last season before Feb. 15th is dreaming.

    There is the Yellowstone club. Original club already went bankrupt.
    That was due to management basically stealing from the funds to finance other ventures, Google Yellowstone Club World and a very messy divorce. https://www.sherpareport.com/destina...lub-world.html

    I never say never but the Y/C will not suffer financial problems again in my lifetime. The amount of money there is staggering. I was discussing their operations with a Y/C Mtn Ops guys and he is afraid that because the Y/C is so exclusive it will invite members to act like they are immune.

    Money is on Covid19 being a temporary condition. Don't think they will upend the entire business model permanently.
    100% correct but they may damage the model trying to get through 2020/21.
    Last edited by Bunion 2020; 08-13-2020 at 03:39 PM.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

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  23. #498
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ski220 View Post
    Money is on Covid19 being a temporary condition. Don't think they will upend the entire business model permanently.
    That's what I think, too. You can't gauge what will happen post-covid on what's happening now. Their priority right now is salvaging the ski season. Sure there may be some things they're doing now that make sense to continue doing, but I'm skeptical that season passes will be going the way of the dodo anytime soon.

  24. #499
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    That's what I think, too. You can't gauge what will happen post-covid on what's happening now. Their priority right now is salvaging the ski season. Sure there may be some things they're doing now that make sense to continue doing, but I'm skeptical that season passes will be going the way of the dodo anytime soon.
    Of course there will always be a pass, but will it be worth it? I don't think so.

    Passes used to be 20-30 day paybacks, or more. My prediction is we return to that much quicker than most realize.

    Even if they don't, take Magic for example. The darling of the EC independents is only allowing pass holders to make a reservation on Monday or Tuesday. Can't commit a Saturday almost a week ahead of time and you are shit out of luck. As in, you can only make a reservation for a day ticket after Tuesday, that is, if they aren't sold out already. Oh and no discounts on that day ticket ever. PS, your kid needs to be in a private group. Cha Ching. These rules are in effect until a vaccine is out by the way. A vaccine for a virus for which the 18 pervious strains never had one developed.

    https://magicmtn.com/alpine-update/

    Seriously, why would you buy that pass now? It fucking rains there half the time and you need to commit week in advance. Surprise pow day on a Thursday? Better nut the fuck up for a day ticket, your pass is worthless. As of right now, that is the future. Fuck that.

    You can't even buy a pass now for three of the largest NE ski resorts by visitation either. 20% of the NE market in terms of skier visits is basically shut out to passholders already. I agree it is almost so unthinkable it is hard to believe, yet here we are.

    This just bums me out so much I'm turning into Benny.
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  25. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    That's what I think, too. You can't gauge what will happen post-covid on what's happening now. Their priority right now is salvaging the ski season. Sure there may be some things they're doing now that make sense to continue doing, but I'm skeptical that season passes will be going the way of the dodo anytime soon.
    so far much of the covid19 response has been the great acceleration where underlying trends (remote work, internet sales, zoomtowns) have done well. See not many reasons why skiing would be different. If the bottom 20% of customers cost you money, fuck ‘em

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