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Thread: 2020 Wildfire Season
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09-22-2020, 06:55 PM #851Registered User
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Getting uneasy about this coming weekend .......
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09-22-2020, 09:44 PM #852
it’s already windy up high today
I didn't believe in reincarnation when I was your age either.
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09-22-2020, 10:12 PM #853
This is pretty cool. Currently, it’s only for California
https://forestobservatory.com/
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09-22-2020, 10:16 PM #854
U of Washington professor Cliff Mass says the impacts of global warming on the recent Oregon fires were probably quite small. The Oregon wildfires were associated with unusually strong easterly winds. There is no climate change connection with such winds. These easterly winds are actually decreasing as the earth has warmed the last 40 years. Climate models suggest that global warming will decrease easterly winds over the western slopes of the Cascades.
He's not arguing there is no global warming, but that specific weather that perpetuated the Oregon fires is actually becoming less and less likely as the earth warms. He does not comment on the California fires.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/...gnificant.html
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09-22-2020, 11:17 PM #855
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09-22-2020, 11:37 PM #856
The issue is not whether the lightning that triggered some of the fires or the winds that spread them were due to climate change. The increasing average temperatures, which are due to anthropogenic GW, and the prolonged average decreased rain and snow fall, which might be, combined to produce unusually dry fuels.
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09-22-2020, 11:54 PM #857
This article seems to present a lot of contradictory information to the cliff mass blog post: https://www.opb.org/article/2020/09/...e-change-role/
Which includes some of the same details that old goat mentions: drought and less snowfall.
The wind event, based on the article that I posted seems to be an active area of research.
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09-23-2020, 06:41 AM #858
You already brought this up.
https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...88#post6067988
And I already responded
https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...22#post6068022
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09-23-2020, 08:33 AM #859
Last edited by buckethead; 09-23-2020 at 10:33 AM.
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09-23-2020, 08:40 AM #860
No, what I posted on 9/11/20 was from Cliff Mass's podcast where he discusses the issue. What I posted above is his full written analysis posted on his blog on 9/21/20.
What I appreciate about Cliff Mass is he points out the flaws of concluding something that appears at first glance to be intuitively caused by climate change is, in fact, climate change, before analyzing the data. The media is guilty of this, often, as is President Trump. Another example is people who claim we are getting less and less snow at our ski areas in Washington. Cliff Mass points out that while temperatures have increased modestly here in the last 80 years, and the average snow level is going up, the average snow pack has not actually declined at ski area level. This is Washington specific analysis. He is not a climate denier but shows (with data) how climate change will do things that one would not intuitively think would occur. I appreciate his analysis because jumping to conclusions on climate change only empowers the climate deniers and anti-science folks.
His fire analysis is specific to Oregon. He shows that all large Oregon fires in recorded history are caused by large East wind events. He then shows how these wind events are becoming less and less likely. He also provides climate change data to explain why this is true today, and why it will be continue to be true for the rest of our lives. Temperatures in Oregon have gone up 1 degree over the last 30 years, which does not correlate to a large increase in fire danger.
As you point out, he does appear to overlook the role of repeated drought on the forest, year after year. So even if we are not in a drought year, the forest in September may be more dry than the forest in September 80 years ago during a year which received the same rain (because the vegetation has not fully recovered). And even if the East wind events are less likely to occur, if the fire season is longer, the two factors may cancel each other out.Last edited by altasnob; 09-23-2020 at 09:14 AM.
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09-23-2020, 09:11 AM #861
That overlooks how long the snowpack lasts. Warmer temps->earlier loss of snowpack->drier fuels as the season progresses.
This is Washington specific analysis.
He shows that all large Oregon fires in recorded history are caused by large East wind events. He then shows how these wind events are becoming less and less likely.
To me, Mass (and you) comes across as a data cherry-picker, and clearly overlooks the entire, and voluminous, amount of factors involved in a fire season like this one. Just like Trump and the media.
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09-23-2020, 09:28 AM #862
It's with deep sadness that we share the loss of a Single Engine Air Tanker pilot after a crash tonight working on the #SchillFire near Emmett, Idaho. More info will be released following family notifications. Our thoughts are with all those impacted by this tragedy. #NeverForgotten
Photo by Bureau of Land Management - Idaho.
https://www.facebook.com/BLMFire/“When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis
Kindness is a bridge between all people
Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism
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09-23-2020, 09:30 AM #863
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09-23-2020, 09:35 AM #864
What would 2 -3 million acres annually of controlled burn look like in CA? Can these areas be burned in a controlled fashion if we light the fires in late spring?
Even if we went to the most aggressive green energy plan CA is stuck with climate change for decades to come. Seems like we need a direct solution / mitigation.
I have a 1.5 acres parcel of woods with a bunch of crowded trees and brush. Planning on thinning it and burning the years of leaves that are piled up. As much as I hate adding smoke, I think the only feasible solution is more fire in a controlled manner.
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09-23-2020, 10:18 AM #865
I don’t see that ever happening - air quality and complex current and expanding WUI locations. Add the reluctance of the governments to fund anything that isn’t an in-your-face disaster.
Can these areas be burned in a controlled fashion if we light the fires in late spring?
I hate to be so negative. Another consideration is that many areas are so choked with fuel from management that they may be impossible to burn with positive outcomes. A complication consideration for SoCal and Central CA is that chaparral only burns when it’s really dry and hard to control.
Even if we went to the most aggressive green energy plan CA is stuck with climate change for decades to come. Seems like we need a direct solution / mitigation.
I have a 1.5 acres parcel of woods with a bunch of crowded trees and brush. Planning on thinning it and burning the years of leaves that are piled up.
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09-23-2020, 10:53 AM #866
I guess my solution is 1) radical change to zoning and construction ordinances to address willy-nilly expansion, defensible space, and housing construction, and 2) massive, like Pentagon-level, funding and organization to determine the most effective mitigation and landscape health measures and implement them.
Otherwise, we’re just playing catch-up with elements that are much faster than we are.
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09-23-2020, 11:22 AM #867
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09-23-2020, 12:30 PM #868
If we had better defensible space around the Urban / Wildland Interface, wouldn’t that make planned burns easier? Seems like we need to change a bunch of things, the government’s reluctance to invest in fire prevention, zoning, creating defensible space, etc. I have a hard time seeing how we get to a reasonable end goal without extensive planned burns though.
You can change a lot of things, but you can’t do anything with a giant source of fuel other than get rid of it. It clearly isn’t feasible to do anything mechanically to 2m acres a year.
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09-23-2020, 01:06 PM #869
^ You’re 100% right about mechanical treatments. Time and money.
The problem with WUI/developments is the sprawling patchwork nature of them requires making provisions and odd angles, rather than dealing with a contiguous landscape. Plus, people that live there...they put up a fuss about smoke, fire, and cutting trees and such. But if the public would get behind it, that would help.
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09-23-2020, 01:20 PM #870
We need people to want to live in the cities, versus rural. Currently, we subsidize rural life in a variety of ways (infrastructure costs much more to provide to rural, yet not reflected in what they pay). So people who live in rural, high fire risk areas, are not paying the true costs of their living. Oil is subsidized so people are willing to live farther and farther out and fly more and more. I don't believe in laws that force us to live in cities (because ultimately, such laws will never succeed). But I do support ending the subsidy of rural living, so people will voluntarily live in a more car free, dense, urban environment and rely on public transit to recreate. Moving people from rural areas to cities will not only make fighting wildfires easier, it is our only hope of preventing human caused climate change. But we all want our little slice of heaven in the mountains, surrounded by ponderous trees.
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09-23-2020, 01:57 PM #871Registered User
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Might have to redesign/rebuild the cities for that to have a realistic chance...... in so many ways.
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09-23-2020, 01:57 PM #872
Two very different stories of firefighting in oregon recently:
https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020...efighters.html
https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020...ave-homes.html
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09-23-2020, 03:35 PM #873
^^^While the Hillbilly Brigade no doubt did some good protecting that area, I tend to discount the locals' judgement about the level of service provided by the professionals.
Their being pissed off about a 30 min planning meeting being Exhibit A
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09-23-2020, 03:46 PM #874Registered User
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09-23-2020, 04:29 PM #875
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