2020 Wildfire Season

[bodywhomper]

Most of the current California fires are lightning starts.

Cali is in a drought. There have been a few wet seasons followed by this past severe drought winter.

[KQ]

QAnon fans spread fake claims about real fires in Oregon

New York (CNN Business)Authorities in Oregon are pleading with the public to only trust and share information verified by official sources about the unprecedented wildfires sweeping the state. The pleas come as law enforcement agencies described 911 dispatchers being overrun with calls about a false online rumor that "Antifa" members had been arrested for setting the fires — a claim promoted by the anonymous account behind the QAnon conspiracy theories.

The incident highlights how online conspiracy theories, a sustained right-wing campaign to create increased fear of anti-fascist groups, and amplification of false claims by QAnon followers, have real consequences.

On Friday, the FBI responded, saying, "reports that extremists are setting wildfires in Oregon are untrue."

"Rumors spread just like wildfire," the Douglas County Sheriff's Office warned in a Facebook post Thursday, adding that staff had been "overrun with requests for information and inquiries on an UNTRUE rumor that 6 Antifa members have been arrested for setting fires" in the area.

That specific claim had been amplified by "Q" — the anonymous person or people behind QAnon — only 12 hours earlier.

Early Thursday morning, "Q" posted a link to a tweet from Paul Joseph Romero Jr., a former US Senate candidate who lost his Republican primary in May, that falsely claimed the Douglas County Sheriff's Office had six Antifa "arsonists" in custody.

CNN has reached out to Romero for comment.

The post by "Q" was published on 8Kun, a successor to the messaging board 8chan, where users often posted hateful content. In 2019, 8chan was linked to at least three atrocities, including a shooting in El Paso, Texas that left 23 people dead.

In the post that included Romero's tweet, "Q" suggested the fires were linked to "highly coordinated ... domestic terrorism." President Donald Trump threatened earlier this year to label Antifa a terrorist organization, a move that experts say is unconstitutional.

The wildfires sweeping the state have burned around 900,000 acres since they were first sparked amid fierce winds this week, forcing the evacuation of half a million people, Oregon officials said Thursday. At least five 4 people have died in the fires.

An anonymous post to an obscure online site wouldn't normally merit much attention, but QAnon followers are fervent and persistent, and the FBI has labeled them a potential domestic terrorist threat.

QAnon's followers believe there is a "deep state" within the US government that is controlled by a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophiles. According to the baseless conspiracy theory, the cabal is largely run by Democratic politicians and liberal celebrities -- and Trump is trying to take them down.

The Jackson County Sheriff's Office in Oregon also took to Facebook on Thursday asking people not to spread false information.

"We are inundated with questions about things that are FAKE stories. One example is a story circulating that varies about what group is involved as to setting fires and arrests being made," they wrote, adding, "THIS IS NOT TRUE!"

On Friday, the FBI's Portland field office tweeted, "With our state and local partners, the FBI has investigated several such reports [of extremists setting wildfires] and found them untrue."

"Conspiracy theory and misinformation take valuable resources away from local fire and police agencies working around the clock to bring these fires under control," it added.

And police in the city of Medford said screenshots of what purported to be a Facebook post from the police department's account were fake. In the screenshot, a post showed a man's picture and claimed five people were arrested in connection with arson.

"We did not arrest this person for arson, nor anyone affiliated with Antifa or 'Proud Boys' as we've heard throughout the day. Also, no confirmed gatherings of Antifa which has also been reported," police wrote.

Medford police told CNN it requested the fake posts be removed from other Facebook accounts and posted a notice on its own page about the bogus claims, but "we are still getting calls, from local and out of the area, asking if it's true."


Proud Boys is a far-right group.

In the anonymous online posting, "Q" also shared a link to a post from a Washington State trooper who said a 36-year-old male had been arrested for setting a fire. Authorities in Washington, however, gave no indication that the alleged arson was politically motivated. CNN has reached out for comment.

Craig Roberts, Clackamas County Sheriff, was asked about the possibility of arson in Oregon. He said, "At this point in time we don't have any evidence of that [arson] but the origin of those things will be part of an investigation as things move forward. So, as you can imagine a fire to this magnitude, there'll be an in-depth investigation looking at all the possibilities and anything that might come forward, regarding that. But at this particular point in time nothing conclusive that would direct us to that any of that."

[altasnob]

Looking at drought.gov, only a very small part of Northern CA is "extreme drought" at the moment. The Sierras are only moderate drought. The areas that got torched in Oregon are in "moderate drought" turning to "severe drought" when you move down valley west to the Willamette Valley.

https://www.drought.gov/drought/

[altasnob]

It does look like Oregon had a lot of lightning strikes right before the warm weather and stiff east winds earlier this week. No lightning up in WA so mostly spared.

[Meadow Skipper]

Looking at drought.gov, only a very small part of Northern CA is "extreme drought" at the moment. The Sierras are only moderate drought. The areas that got torched in Oregon are in "moderate drought" turning to "severe drought" when you move down valley west to the Willamette Valley.

https://www.drought.gov/drought/

The current picture is one thing, how long an area has been in drought is a very important factor. Like how many years previous.

[Hood26]

A point of comparison and benchmark of catastrophic fires in Oregon history is the Tillamook Burn.

The Tillamook Burn, series of fires from 1933-1951, burned a total combined acres of 355,000 acres.

https://oregonencyclopedia.org/artic.../#.X1vkqZNKgW8

At this point, from data collected this AM, the Riverside, Beachy, and Lionshead together have burned 453,387.54 acres.

https://www.oregon.gov/oem/emops/Pages/RAPTOR.aspx

Three, of the many, fires burning today (which very well could all grow together) are larger than the total acres of the Tillamook Burn by 98,387.54 acres.

This sucks.

[altasnob]

In 2002, the Biscuit Fire burned nearly 500,000 acres in Southern Oregon:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biscuit_Fire

[bobz]

Well, that aged poorly.
https://www.oregon.gov/newsroom/Page...x?newsid=37286

It was only about a week or so earlier, that I was marveling to myself at how bad California had it (and that was before a few now major CA fires), and yet Oregon seemed to be skating by nicely. Whoa, no longer:

[Sharon Needles]

Ask any veteran wildland firefighter.

I think I’ll stick with the science on this one, but thanks.

[bodywhomper]

Looking at drought.gov, only a very small part of Northern CA is "extreme drought" at the moment. The Sierras are only moderate drought. The areas that got torched in Oregon are in "moderate drought" turning to "severe drought" when you move down valley west to the Willamette Valley.

https://www.drought.gov/drought/

The current picture is one thing, how long an area has been in drought is a very important factor. Like how many years previous.

Drought definition and determination is based a lot of perspective.

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc....al_outlook.pdf

Nuanced discussion: https://californiawaterblog.com/2020...repare-anyway/

Some primer: https://ca.water.usgs.gov/california...s-drought.html

[LongShortLong]

There have been some questions about that on local Portland forums. Some speculated that the 500k number includes everyone who is Level 1 "on watch", Level 2 "get ready" and Level 3 "get the hell out".

That's it. The governor issued a correction. 40,000 evac'ed (level 3), half million across Oregon's 3 levels of warning.
https://apnews.com/429f97bdf66aaa28a4dd43879a412503

[KQ]

Just found the source of smoke in the house - bathroom ceiling fans. Ran them for a bit to clear some smoke then taped plastic bags over them. Freakin' crazy.

Cats are going nutz screaming at me because they want to go out and play. Nothing doing. I'm not opening the doors anymore than absolutely necessary and I know as soon as I let them out they'll want in again then out then in then out.......lather rinse repeat

[dunfree]

All the forests in WA, OR, and CA have burned in the not too distant past. Go dig in the soil in a lush, wet, old growth forest and you will see burnt wood remnants. Trees like the redwoods rely on and are made for large fires. So not remarkable to say that all of the forest in CA will burn (they have, and they will). As others have noted, we have been preventing natural forest for the last century. That's now catching up to us. And today, we like to build homes out in the forests because we hate the cities and all want our own slice of paradise.

By everything I meant yearly biomass burns then > now
https://www.pnas.org/content/109/9/E535
interesting overview of western fires, describes fire deficit & attributes some fires to climate change

[Norseman]

By everything I meant yearly biomass burns then > now
https://www.pnas.org/content/109/9/E535
interesting overview of western fires, describes fire deficit & attributes some fires to climate change

Thanks for that link

[muted]

All the forests in WA, OR, and CA have burned in the not too distant past. Go dig in the soil in a lush, wet, old growth forest and you will see burnt wood remnants. Trees like the redwoods rely on and are made for large fires. So not remarkable to say that all of the forest in CA will burn (they have, and they will). As others have noted, we have been preventing natural forest for the last century. That's now catching up to us. And today, we like to build homes out in the forests because we hate the cities and all want our own slice of paradise.

It is absolutely remarkable to watch all of CA burn in such a short time, if the rest burns in the next decade or so.

yes, we all know this has happened before, that goes without saying.

[altasnob]

Smoke forecast for 6 pm on Saturday. Spokane joins the party, Missoula is next

[TBS]

A point of comparison and benchmark of catastrophic fires in Oregon history is the Tillamook Burn.

The Tillamook Burn, series of fires from 1933-1951, burned a total combined acres of 355,000 acres.

https://oregonencyclopedia.org/artic.../#.X1vkqZNKgW8

At this point, from data collected this AM, the Riverside, Beachy, and Lionshead together have burned 453,387.54 acres.

https://www.oregon.gov/oem/emops/Pages/RAPTOR.aspx

Three, of the many, fires burning today (which very well could all grow together) are larger than the total acres of the Tillamook Burn by 98,387.54 acres.

This sucks.

Point of clarification - the first Tillamook Burn fire in 1933 burned 240K acres. The second one in 1939 burned another 217K acres, and the third in 1945 burned 171K. So, that's 628,000 acres combined. There was another smaller fire there in around 1950 as well.

Here's a link to the biggest fires in OR recorded history, with sortable Google Sheet. They don't include anything under 50K acres, like the Milli Fire (25K acres) in my back yard two years ago.
https://projects.oregonlive.com/wild...historical.php.

Large fires are definitely occurring more often now compared to 50 years ago. After the third Tillamook fire, there was a 40 year hiatus. Now it's like an every year event.

[glademaster]

Things have taken a significant turn for the smokier here in the last hour or two.

[climberevan]

I've been wearing my respirator with P100 cartridges all day for a while now. It's quite effective for low level activity but does not permit exercise. Lately when the AQI goes below 100 we consider ourselves lucky.

[bodywhomper]

I've been wearing my respirator with P100 cartridges all day for a while now. It's quite effective for low level activity but does not permit exercise. Lately when the AQI goes below 100 we consider ourselves lucky.

Yep. Below 100 and we’re airing out the house. Our portable hepa filter has been great. My box fan with merv12 works well, too. If this continues, I’ll set up another fan/merv12 by the front door.

There’s a fire in Mendo area that carries a few names because it started as separate fires from the lightning event. In its broadest form, it’s been labeled the “August Complex” and is almost 750k acres.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Complex_fire

[TBS]

I think I’ll stick with the science on this one, but thanks.

By everything I meant yearly biomass burns then > now
https://www.pnas.org/content/109/9/E535
interesting overview of western fires, describes fire deficit & attributes some fires to climate change

The science ^^^ backs up Meadow Skipper, but bless your heart for your input

[Meadow Skipper]

By everything I meant yearly biomass burns then > now
https://www.pnas.org/content/109/9/E535
interesting overview of western fires, describes fire deficit & attributes some fires to climate change

Nice.

[Meadow Skipper]

The science ^^^ backs up Meadow Skipper, but bless your heart for your input

He’s just a trolling moran.

[TBS]

No doubt, just haven't got around to putting him on ignore
That's now done

[TBS]

Just found the source of smoke in the house - bathroom ceiling fans. Ran them for a bit to clear some smoke then taped plastic bags over them. Freakin' crazy.

Thanks for this. Started running the range hood fan (sounds like a jet), laundry room fan and all bathroom fans. Seems to be helping.