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  1. #851
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    Getting uneasy about this coming weekend .......

  2. #852
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    it’s already windy up high today
    I didn't believe in reincarnation when I was your age either.

  3. #853
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    This is pretty cool. Currently, it’s only for California

    https://forestobservatory.com/

  4. #854
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    U of Washington professor Cliff Mass says the impacts of global warming on the recent Oregon fires were probably quite small. The Oregon wildfires were associated with unusually strong easterly winds. There is no climate change connection with such winds. These easterly winds are actually decreasing as the earth has warmed the last 40 years. Climate models suggest that global warming will decrease easterly winds over the western slopes of the Cascades.

    He's not arguing there is no global warming, but that specific weather that perpetuated the Oregon fires is actually becoming less and less likely as the earth warms. He does not comment on the California fires.

    https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/...gnificant.html

  5. #855
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    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    This is pretty cool. Currently, it’s only for California

    https://forestobservatory.com/
    Just discovered this the other day too. It's sweet.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ernest_Hemingway View Post
    I realize there is not much hope for a bullfighting forum. I understand that most of you would prefer to discuss the ingredients of jacket fabrics than the ingredients of a brave man. I know nothing of the former. But the latter is made of courage, and skill, and grace in the presence of the possibility of death. If someone could make a jacket of those three things it would no doubt be the most popular and prized item in all of your closets.

  6. #856
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    U of Washington professor Cliff Mass says the impacts of global warming on the recent Oregon fires were probably quite small. The Oregon wildfires were associated with unusually strong easterly winds. There is no climate change connection with such winds. These easterly winds are actually decreasing as the earth has warmed the last 40 years. Climate models suggest that global warming will decrease easterly winds over the western slopes of the Cascades.

    He's not arguing there is no global warming, but that specific weather that perpetuated the Oregon fires is actually becoming less and less likely as the earth warms. He does not comment on the California fires.

    https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/...gnificant.html
    The issue is not whether the lightning that triggered some of the fires or the winds that spread them were due to climate change. The increasing average temperatures, which are due to anthropogenic GW, and the prolonged average decreased rain and snow fall, which might be, combined to produce unusually dry fuels.

  7. #857
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    This article seems to present a lot of contradictory information to the cliff mass blog post: https://www.opb.org/article/2020/09/...e-change-role/

    Which includes some of the same details that old goat mentions: drought and less snowfall.

    The wind event, based on the article that I posted seems to be an active area of research.

  8. #858
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    U of Washington professor Cliff Mass says the impacts of global warming on the recent Oregon fires were probably quite small. The Oregon wildfires were associated with unusually strong easterly winds. There is no climate change connection with such winds. These easterly winds are actually decreasing as the earth has warmed the last 40 years. Climate models suggest that global warming will decrease easterly winds over the western slopes of the Cascades.

    He's not arguing there is no global warming, but that specific weather that perpetuated the Oregon fires is actually becoming less and less likely as the earth warms. He does not comment on the California fires.

    https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/...gnificant.html
    You already brought this up.
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...88#post6067988

    And I already responded
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...22#post6068022

  9. #859
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    Quote Originally Posted by gravitylover View Post
    We went to moderate yesterday and will most likely go red flag tomorrow. Reality is that it's already at or beyond red flag in a lot of areas. We did a little loop a few days ago up the lower Hudson Valley and whole farms are browned out rather than harvested. I have a feeling some went out of business mid season. One of the vineyards we stopped at said they ran out of water for irrigation a few weeks ago and may lose most of this years harvest so they're not sure if they'll still be in business at this time next year if they can't salvage enough of it because the extreme wetness the last two seasons cut their yield in half.
    that's sad but not surprising...i just haven't been doing the usual car trips this summer. i
    an surprised though that there's been little coverage on the drought/its economic impacts/what this bodes for the nearby forests from the usually reliable local outlets.
    Last edited by buckethead; 09-23-2020 at 11:33 AM.

  10. #860
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper View Post
    No, what I posted on 9/11/20 was from Cliff Mass's podcast where he discusses the issue. What I posted above is his full written analysis posted on his blog on 9/21/20.

    What I appreciate about Cliff Mass is he points out the flaws of concluding something that appears at first glance to be intuitively caused by climate change is, in fact, climate change, before analyzing the data. The media is guilty of this, often, as is President Trump. Another example is people who claim we are getting less and less snow at our ski areas in Washington. Cliff Mass points out that while temperatures have increased modestly here in the last 80 years, and the average snow level is going up, the average snow pack has not actually declined at ski area level. This is Washington specific analysis. He is not a climate denier but shows (with data) how climate change will do things that one would not intuitively think would occur. I appreciate his analysis because jumping to conclusions on climate change only empowers the climate deniers and anti-science folks.

    His fire analysis is specific to Oregon. He shows that all large Oregon fires in recorded history are caused by large East wind events. He then shows how these wind events are becoming less and less likely. He also provides climate change data to explain why this is true today, and why it will be continue to be true for the rest of our lives. Temperatures in Oregon have gone up 1 degree over the last 30 years, which does not correlate to a large increase in fire danger.

    As you point out, he does appear to overlook the role of repeated drought on the forest, year after year. So even if we are not in a drought year, the forest in September may be more dry than the forest in September 80 years ago during a year which received the same rain (because the vegetation has not fully recovered). And even if the East wind events are less likely to occur, if the fire season is longer, the two factors may cancel each other out.
    Last edited by altasnob; 09-23-2020 at 10:14 AM.

  11. #861
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    ...Cliff Mass points out that while temperatures have increased modestly here in the last 80 years, the average snow pack has not actually declined.
    That overlooks how long the snowpack lasts. Warmer temps->earlier loss of snowpack->drier fuels as the season progresses.

    This is Washington specific analysis.
    Then let’s be careful not to apply it to other areas, especially as flawed as it is.

    He shows that all large Oregon fires in recorded history are caused by large East wind events. He then shows how these wind events are becoming less and less likely.
    You know that ‘less likely’ doesn’t have anything to do with how strong and widespread the wind events are. Numerous mild east winds will have much less effect that one huge devastating event.

    To me, Mass (and you) comes across as a data cherry-picker, and clearly overlooks the entire, and voluminous, amount of factors involved in a fire season like this one. Just like Trump and the media.

  12. #862
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    It's with deep sadness that we share the loss of a Single Engine Air Tanker pilot after a crash tonight working on the #SchillFire near Emmett, Idaho. More info will be released following family notifications. Our thoughts are with all those impacted by this tragedy. #NeverForgotten

    Photo by Bureau of Land Management - Idaho.

    https://www.facebook.com/BLMFire/
    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  13. #863
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    It's with deep sadness that we share the loss of a Single Engine Air Tanker pilot after a crash tonight working on the #SchillFire near Emmett, Idaho. More info will be released following family notifications. Our thoughts are with all those impacted by this tragedy. #NeverForgotten

    Photo by Bureau of Land Management - Idaho.

    https://www.facebook.com/BLMFire/
    RIP

  14. #864
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    What would 2 -3 million acres annually of controlled burn look like in CA? Can these areas be burned in a controlled fashion if we light the fires in late spring?

    Even if we went to the most aggressive green energy plan CA is stuck with climate change for decades to come. Seems like we need a direct solution / mitigation.

    I have a 1.5 acres parcel of woods with a bunch of crowded trees and brush. Planning on thinning it and burning the years of leaves that are piled up. As much as I hate adding smoke, I think the only feasible solution is more fire in a controlled manner.


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  15. #865
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    What would 2 -3 million acres annually of controlled burn look like in CA?
    I don’t see that ever happening - air quality and complex current and expanding WUI locations. Add the reluctance of the governments to fund anything that isn’t an in-your-face disaster.

    Can these areas be burned in a controlled fashion if we light the fires in late spring?
    Different ecosystems need different conditions for effective burn results. Also that would have a huge impact on air quality if it was all done in one season.

    I hate to be so negative. Another consideration is that many areas are so choked with fuel from management that they may be impossible to burn with positive outcomes. A complication consideration for SoCal and Central CA is that chaparral only burns when it’s really dry and hard to control.

    Even if we went to the most aggressive green energy plan CA is stuck with climate change for decades to come. Seems like we need a direct solution / mitigation.
    True, the two go hand in hand, but also effective development restrictions etc.

    I have a 1.5 acres parcel of woods with a bunch of crowded trees and brush. Planning on thinning it and burning the years of leaves that are piled up.
    Good on ya. It’s more than just fire mitigation, it’ll make that parcel healthier. Only 1,999,998.5 to 2,999,998.5 acres to go.

  16. #866
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    I guess my solution is 1) radical change to zoning and construction ordinances to address willy-nilly expansion, defensible space, and housing construction, and 2) massive, like Pentagon-level, funding and organization to determine the most effective mitigation and landscape health measures and implement them.

    Otherwise, we’re just playing catch-up with elements that are much faster than we are.

  17. #867
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    The issue is not whether the lightning that triggered some of the fires or the winds that spread them were due to climate change. The increasing average temperatures, which are due to anthropogenic GW, and the prolonged average decreased rain and snow fall, which might be, combined to produce unusually dry fuels.
    Yeah, I feel he's being a bit disingenuous. Those particular fires were directly caused by the strong east winds, but the underlying conditions (i.e. lots of dry material for fuel) may have been influenced by climate change.

  18. #868
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper View Post
    I guess my solution is 1) radical change to zoning and construction ordinances to address willy-nilly expansion, defensible space, and housing construction, and 2) massive, like Pentagon-level, funding and organization to determine the most effective mitigation and landscape health measures and implement them.

    Otherwise, we’re just playing catch-up with elements that are much faster than we are.
    If we had better defensible space around the Urban / Wildland Interface, wouldn’t that make planned burns easier? Seems like we need to change a bunch of things, the government’s reluctance to invest in fire prevention, zoning, creating defensible space, etc. I have a hard time seeing how we get to a reasonable end goal without extensive planned burns though.

    You can change a lot of things, but you can’t do anything with a giant source of fuel other than get rid of it. It clearly isn’t feasible to do anything mechanically to 2m acres a year.

  19. #869
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    ^ You’re 100% right about mechanical treatments. Time and money.

    The problem with WUI/developments is the sprawling patchwork nature of them requires making provisions and odd angles, rather than dealing with a contiguous landscape. Plus, people that live there...they put up a fuss about smoke, fire, and cutting trees and such. But if the public would get behind it, that would help.

  20. #870
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    We need people to want to live in the cities, versus rural. Currently, we subsidize rural life in a variety of ways (infrastructure costs much more to provide to rural, yet not reflected in what they pay). So people who live in rural, high fire risk areas, are not paying the true costs of their living. Oil is subsidized so people are willing to live farther and farther out and fly more and more. I don't believe in laws that force us to live in cities (because ultimately, such laws will never succeed). But I do support ending the subsidy of rural living, so people will voluntarily live in a more car free, dense, urban environment and rely on public transit to recreate. Moving people from rural areas to cities will not only make fighting wildfires easier, it is our only hope of preventing human caused climate change. But we all want our little slice of heaven in the mountains, surrounded by ponderous trees.

  21. #871
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    Might have to redesign/rebuild the cities for that to have a realistic chance...... in so many ways.

  22. #872
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  23. #873
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    ^^^While the Hillbilly Brigade no doubt did some good protecting that area, I tend to discount the locals' judgement about the level of service provided by the professionals.
    Their being pissed off about a 30 min planning meeting being Exhibit A
    Check Out Ullr's Mobile Avalanche Safety Tools for iOS and Android
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  24. #874
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    Quote Originally Posted by TBS View Post
    Their being pissed off about a 30 min planning meeting being Exhibit A
    Yep, seems pretty telling to me

  25. #875
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    We need people to want to live in the cities, versus rural. Currently, we subsidize rural life in a variety of ways (infrastructure costs much more to provide to rural, yet not reflected in what they pay). So people who live in rural, high fire risk areas, are not paying the true costs of their living. Oil is subsidized so people are willing to live farther and farther out and fly more and more. I don't believe in laws that force us to live in cities (because ultimately, such laws will never succeed). But I do support ending the subsidy of rural living, so people will voluntarily live in a more car free, dense, urban environment and rely on public transit to recreate. Moving people from rural areas to cities will not only make fighting wildfires easier, it is our only hope of preventing human caused climate change. But we all want our little slice of heaven in the mountains, surrounded by ponderous trees.
    Californians in Cal Fire responsibility areas went berserk when the state started taxing them for fire protection. Citizens who live in Fire Protection Districts or cities with their own FD's have always paid for that protection through their taxes.

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