Prediction & Threat Analysis: Ski Season 20-21

[Hott Butt Mud]

- 40 million unemployed; many in ski towns and ski industry
- Airlines and hospitably severely crippled
- Wealthy people on lockdown; conserving wealth
- Current unrest in USA an eyesore to potential international visitors
- International visitors currently unlikely to travel for Christmas vacations
- Domestic Christmas vacations to ski towns an unknown
- Social distancing enforcement by ski season still a complete unknown
- Social distancing measures could cripple ski season as we know it


Shits gonna be fucked for ski season.

But really, should we just call in the United Nations to start peacekeeping and healing in this country?

[prsboogie]

I though we pulled out of the UN?

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[54-46]

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

[Benny Profane]

ABasin is running an experiment right now. It would be interesting to hear from them in a few weeks.

[SB]

But you got that Ikon pass, they had better open

[Benny Profane]

But you got that Ikon pass, they had better open

A lot of hills are just going to open a few lifts, the minimum to avoid any sort of legal action. Like on bad weather or windy days.

[westoxified]

1. it will snow
2. gravity will still work

helpful, i know.

[skifishbum]

#localsonlyskiing
#imahugebcskier
#icemantoursindenim

[Skidog]

#countryclubdayz

[doebedoe]

I predict the market for used BC gear in Feb/March is going to be sweet.

[esseff]

More 1% action-less dirtbag
Back to days of maggots in parking lot seeking tickets at end of the day
Importing seasonal help may be a challenge
I don't see permanently closed terrain; that is counter-intuitive to attracting $ guests

[Name Redacted]

I'll take a slow season, shit's gotten out of hand the last decade or so anyway. Already got my passes dialed in.

However, I had a beer at a local brewery taproom yesterday, during slow season, and it was moderately busy, locals and tourists. Gapers are gonna gape, you can't stop it, but it might slow down. I see the destination areas further from major metropolitan areas taking the biggest hit.

[ncskier]

Not a consolation but even during the darkest moments of human history, people fucked and had kids, people fell in love, opened new businesses etc. I am not saying it's right, I'm saying the selfish nature of people tends to insulate at least a certain percentage of the population. You may be someone looking at the big picture. There are millions in america who don't care or can't care enough and will keep doing what they do.
Those people will be just fine with a 20% off coupon for a ski rental or a buy 3 get the 4th night free at a resort and will show up. I mean people are clamoring to start cruising again.

[westoxified]

nordic skiing will see a massive boom. i predict massive amounts of golf course shuffling.

[TahoeJ]

I will be skiing pow regardless of what happens, whether I have to earn all of those turns or not.

But I don't think it will turn out to be quite so dire.

[hatchgreenchile]

Powder days will last 90 minutes instead of 60.

[Jax]

Weekday crack 'o one club FTW for lift-served.

I predict human-triggered events in the bc to reach all-time highs.

[SkiBall]

Really could use a good winter this year. It will make the best of a bad situation. Low snow year and it will be crippling.

[esseff]

If the Ikon Assurance program would guarantee a 20/21 pass (that was deferred by 12/10) would receive the same pass for 21/22, it would be helpful.

I don't want to defer and then have to fork out another $500 for family passes due to price increases.

[cinnepa]

Plenty of room on a quad chair now.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Tough to really say. Places far from major cities ie Montana, WY, etc will be the locals dream if lifts are spinning. I am selfishly hoping for a glimpse of what crowds were like here 15 years ago.....aka when the hill didn't make any money.

Places driving distance to big cities.....LCC/BCC, I-70 brahlorado, etc might actually be busy? More people than ever WFH (a few hours of emails or working from chairlifts) or on unemployment that can ski on a Wednesday......IDK.

[Benny Profane]

when the hill didn't make any money.

Well, that's nice, but, maybe they have to make a lot more now just to open. It isn't a charity. Right off the bat, many hills are looking at a shitload of debt payments, at least for all the modern lifts they've installed lately. Vail just had to make a deal on their debt, which was taking them under. Then there's the staff cuts, because no way they can afford all the people without Mr and Mrs NJ and the kids flying in.
If these places do open, I'd expect a lot less service, for the same price. Most may be doling out tickets in a lottery system, like ABasin right now, which will suck, and probably lead to some corruption, because the rich fucks will just pay under the table to be first in line to what may be a near private club experience.

[dtown]

Less revenue, which is inevitable at resorts that rely on hotel, booze and retail sales, will = less staff = less skiable terrain = smaller terrain = shorter ski season. Higher margin full season passes and daily lift tickets will keep them afloat but not to fill capacity.

That’s just how general business works, hoping places survive and I lean towards the side of “covid isn’t a big deal medically” but we’ll see.


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[Lone Star]

nobody without a bed allowed in canyon in morning until interlodge lifted due to social distancing requirements. added value to canyon guests and valley locals at the expense of down canyon tourists. everybody wins. xcept airbnb owners.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Well, that's nice, but, maybe they have to make a lot more now just to open. It isn't a charity. Right off the bat, many hills are looking at a shitload of debt payments, at least for all the modern lifts they've installed lately. Vail just had to make a deal on their debt, which was taking them under. Then there's the staff cuts, because no way they can afford all the people without Mr and Mrs NJ and the kids flying in.
If these places do open, I'd expect a lot less service, for the same price. Most may be doling out tickets in a lottery system, like ABasin right now, which will suck, and probably lead to some corruption, because the rich fucks will just pay under the table to be first in line to what may be a near private club experience.

Yeah, I am assuming they can even open to begin with. It's a big assumption. Sadly I think way too many people, myself included, will wait until almost November to buy their passes. Buying a season pass now when ski season is 5 months away is a serious roll of the dice, but the ski areas probably need us to buy passes now to inform their decision to open.

It's funny how these things play out. As with most "mega" ski areas the locals/pass holders were really starting to get the shaft around here.....There was some serious blowback....then mother nature throws this curveball and now the ski area is maybe slowly realizing that locals/passholders (non ikon) may be the ONLY people who will be skiing next year.

It would be nice to have some very uncrowded lift served powder days. Even with limited terrain/lifts open, but I think the play here is to expect to get the touring setup ready to go and buy a sled if possible.