The Ethics of Outdorr Recreation in Times of COVID-19

[Danno]

There is only thing of which I am 100% certain and it is this:

The whole thing is a shitshow.

[cmsummit]

asked my buddy who is an ER doc in the Bronx first.

He recovered from covid a few weeks ago like the rest of the front line staff at his hospital and is now back at work.

His response: "antibody tests are worthless and clinically insignificant. We don't know if antibodies offer protection. Also, I took two tests (roche and abbot) and one says I have antibodies, the other does not."

It's true that it is not known with certainty that having the antibodies will prevent re-infection, although it does seem possible/probable at this point. I'll take a 'possibility' of some level of immunity at this stage of the game....so definitely not worthless to me. That's absolutely worthless at this point in the eyes of a doctor as more research is needed.

I have no issues with cautious optimism.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/0...us-antibodies/

[old goat]

The Abbott test has excellent specificity it seems. If you test positive you had the CV19. Sensitivity is less--a negative can be false, often due to timing--it takes time to make antibodies. As far as immunity, I don't think we'll know how good the immunity is for years. My guess is that there will be a mass clinical trial of every vaccine that shows a positive antibody response in Phase 1. They will make as many doses as they can of all of them, give them to as many people as they can, and in a couple of years we'll know if vaccinated people got sick or not. With the caveat that people who get the vaccine will still be warned to wear masks and distance (but nobody will) until the vaccine has been proven to work. That's not the most scientific approach but given the stakes it would make sense to me to do it that way. Plus the drug companies can cash in right away--by the time we know a particular vaccine doesn't work, the manufacturer will already have made billions.

[Danno]

yeah, I sure wouldn't count on immunity, but I sure would prefer to have antibodies right now than not.

[DBdude]

You know what assholes always say when called on it “ it was a fucking joke.”

Perhaps your jokes arent jokes but its your pussy out of all the asshole things you say. Its the assholes version if have your cake and eat it too.

There now send me your therapy $, cause yours obviously isnt helping you buy not calling you on your bullshit.


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dude you are a hot head - you always have been

[The SnowShow]

So now that A) Timberline is open and showing us the way and B) May 26th, the governor of CO is going to discuss the next phase (based on the data) which may include skiing, how likely is it ABasin opens? Maybe they pull it off with a 500 person reservation system for season pass holders only?

[SB]

You want antibodies?

You can’t handle antibodies!

[tahoe420]

I have a hunch. So I got that going for me...

[mtnjam]

Has anyone researched yet if the CV19 virus is mutating to something less virulent or more virulent, thus making antibody assays that much more difficult?

[XXX-er]

Covid got here from china via yurp-usa up to Canada and cuz it does mutate means they could track where it came from

can't remeber where the artical was from

[fastfred]

isn't this thread about recrating outside
and mountain town people vs city people
not scientific research there has to be a thread for that somewhere

[XXX-er]

I thought a Chinese Downhill was the go-to method of dispute resolution. Is that no longer en-vogue because of the "chinese virus?"

If you ever been to banfff a big wall overlooking town is called Ha-ling

Ha ling was a railway cook who in 1896 made a 50$ bet he could hike it in 10 hrs, apparently he did it in 3 hrs which sounds about right but in his honor they named it China man's peak

In 1997 they realized maybe its the incorrect nomenclature and changed it to Ha ling

[Bronco]

My window overlooks a large apartment community north of Seattle. I've seen a bunch of vehicles being packed with camping gear and folks headed out. Upon further research, I don't see that any USFS campgrounds are open... Should be an interesting weekend in Leavenworth, Chelan and Cle Elum. Take plenty of hand sanitizer!

Can I get a haircut now?

[phatty]

My window overlooks a large apartment community north of Seattle. I've seen a bunch of vehicles being packed with camping gear and folks headed out. Must be headed to the East side as I believe the only USFS campgrounds that are open are in the Okanogan-Wenatchee NF. Should be an interesting weekend in Leavenworth, Chelan and Cle Elum. Take plenty of hand sanitizer, no restrooms open yet.

Can I get a haircut now?

Apparently nothing is open until 5/22 and then only trailheads for day use. No campgrounds yet.

https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/okawe...d=FSEPRD742926

Plus I'm sure your hair looks fantastic. Let the flow go!

[Bronco]

Yeah just saw that. Thanks!

[hawkgt]

CO state campgrounds opened May 12. No walk ups, must have reservation.

Got a spot on the river this weekend. Purchased all food and beverages at my local stores that I go to anyway so should have no need to head into town, however the local brewery is open near the spot so I'll go get a few cases of beer to help them out.

Spot next to me is my ski buddy, was with him all winter skiing right up to closure. Last few weeks we have had 6' beers and played a couple rounds of disc.

[skizix]

So I was thinking about going to get an antibody test...

His response: "antibody tests are worthless and clinically insignificant. We don't know if antibodies offer protection. Also, I took two tests (roche and abbot) and one says I have antibodies, the other does not."

I was going to get an antibody test as well, but have changed my mind for now.

I think I may very well have had the shit. Heavy flu symptoms, 2nd half of February (early for CO, but my office always has large groups of Chinese and European nationals running around all over the place) - lasted two full weeks at strength, which I've never had before. And probably the worst cough I've ever had, that caused crazy pain, right at my sternum, when I coughed. The cough took almost a month to stop. Two months later, when I take a super deep breath, it still hurts, right at my sternum. Either I had the covid and it did some damage to my lungs, or I had something else that did the same, and if I get covid, I'm fucked.

So I was just reading up on antibody tests today. False positives are huge. The problem is: say a given test is 99% accurate (re: false positives, specifically), and 1% of the population is infected. That means that a positive-for-antibodies test result has a 50% chance of being a false positive (I had to run this through my brain a few times for it to make sense, but it absolutely makes sense). So take the test - if it comes back positive, then flip a coin, to decide whether or not you had the virus.

Taking two different antibody tests, like your doctor fried did, presumably increases the accuracy, *IF* they come back with the same result.

For now, I think the antibody tests are pointless, at least for an individual (still somewhat useful for gathering mass statistics).

[old goat]

I was going to get an antibody test as well, but have changed my mind for now.

I think I may very well have had the shit. Heavy flu symptoms, 2nd half of February (early for CO, but my office always has large groups of Chinese and European nationals running around all over the place) - lasted two full weeks at strength, which I've never had before. And probably the worst cough I've ever had, that caused crazy pain, right at my sternum, when I coughed. The cough took almost a month to stop. Two months later, when I take a super deep breath, it still hurts, right at my sternum. Either I had the covid and it did some damage to my lungs, or I had something else that did the same, and if I get covid, I'm fucked.

So I was just reading up on antibody tests today. False positives are huge. The problem is: say a given test is 99% accurate (re: false positives, specifically), and 1% of the population is infected. That means that a positive-for-antibodies test result has a 50% chance of being a false positive (I had to run this through my brain a few times for it to make sense, but it absolutely makes sense). So take the test - if it comes back positive, then flip a coin, to decide whether or not you had the virus.

Taking two different antibody tests, like your doctor fried did, presumably increases the accuracy, *IF* they come back with the same result.

For now, I think the antibody tests are pointless, at least for an individual (still somewhat useful for gathering mass statistics).

The symptoms of an outpatient case of Covid 19 are nonspecific. You cannot differentiate between Covid and other respiratory illnesses like influenza and other viral infections based on symptoms. Only in patients sick enough to be admitted can a presumptive diagnosis be made. Many respiratory viral illnesses take weeks to clear--even after the virus is cleared the lining of the air passages has to heal and until it does the cough will persist. As far as the pain--sounds like you strained the rib cartilage from all the coughing--very painful. So yes you may have had Covid 19 but you can't assume that.

As far as the value of the test--while your math is correct--with a 1% prevalence of Covid and a 1% false positive rate half the positives will be false--for an individual a positive is still 99% likely to be true. Whether that is worth knowing is questionable--you still are going to protect yourself. Even if the presence of antibodies is shown to be protective, the amount of antibody in the blood is likely to matter. The antibody tests being done now are yes/no. If the amount of antibody that is protective can be determined than you will either need a quantitative antibody test or the test will have to be set so that the cutoff is at the protective level.

As far as a population--if you have a test that's 99% specific and you get a 2% positive rate in a population, you can calculate that the prevalence of Covid is 1%, so the test is valuable in that sense.

[Vt-Freeheel]

I find it amusing on the book of faces that people are still equating hiking for skiing with coughing in someones face but the MTB trails are open. I see groups of shuttlers every evening jammed into cars/trucks that I am sure don't all live together.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Its hard to keep up...do we have the fucking hats yet?

[fastfred]

Its hard to keep up...do we have the fucking hats yet?

nope
someone trade marked it already plus the gov't didn't give me any money so business is in the shitter so I filed bankrupcy bought a new bike and I don't have any start up money to do the first run of hats and my go fund me site didn't collect any donations in the meantime I'm busy riding my bike with no mask coughing on people for fun picking my nose and eating it in public places driving hundreds of miles a week to have fun and being a general nu-sense to society

[paulster2626]

nope
someone trade marked it already plus the gov't didn't give me any money so business is in the shitter so I filed bankrupcy bought a new bike and I don't have any start up money to do the first run of hats and my go fund me site didn't collect any donations in the meantime I'm busy riding my bike with no mask coughing on people for fun picking my nose and eating it in public places driving hundreds of miles a week to have fun and being a general nu-sense to society

This sounds unethical.

[hutash]

Unethical is still a form of ethics.

[cmsummit]

The symptoms of an outpatient case of Covid 19 are nonspecific. You cannot differentiate between Covid and other respiratory illnesses like influenza and other viral infections based on symptoms.

Clinically speaking this is true. However, one should be more suspicious of COVID if also experiencing complete loss of taste and/or smell. That seems to be a somewhat unique symptom to COVID and was the symptom (in addition to the flu-like symptoms) that made me highly suspicious I had it. Back in March the CDC hadn't yet recognized anosmia and ageusia as a COVID symptom, but now they do.

I'm quite certain my daughter had COVID during the same time frame that I did, but her only symptom was loss of smell for ~8 days.

[Harry]

your math is correct

Unpossible. This is TGR.


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