Sobering thought...

**rideit** · 03-22-2020, 03:43 PM

But I bet more than a few bike manufacturers go under this year.
Thoughts?

**toast2266** · 03-22-2020, 03:52 PM

I dunno, most people can still ride bikes during the current mess. And while lots of people's incomes will be down this year, the smaller bike companies mostly cater to a fairly well off demographic that will probably weather this storm just fine.

As long as they can get product to sell, I'd like to think they'll be alright-ish. And it sounds like Asian factories are gradually resuming production, so hopefully the supply chain is only moderately disrupted.

**rideit** · 03-22-2020, 03:57 PM

I certainly hope you are correct.

**Sandbox** · 03-22-2020, 03:58 PM

I think we could see some decent deals both used, as people sell their bikes due to job loss, and new as shops and manufacturers try to entice people to buy.

but I agree with toast that the Uber rich are usually always rich and it’s the middle class that normally suffer

**rideit** · 03-22-2020, 03:59 PM

The Uber rich generally play with planes, cars, and boats, though.

**ticketchecker** · 03-22-2020, 03:59 PM

Supply chain is the big unknown

**XXX-er** · 03-22-2020, 04:07 PM

Taiwan came thru this pretty good compared to mainland China and I believe most of the factories are in Tiawan

**rideit** · 03-22-2020, 04:13 PM

I am more concerned about the collapse in market demand, xxx. Not manufacturing capability...

**Hott Butt Mud** · 03-22-2020, 04:15 PM

I was just getting ready to start buying up parts. Disc brake pads, spare tires, etc.

I think this is going to be hard to find soon.

**Sandbox** · 03-22-2020, 04:16 PM

I see the average bike shop running into issues... maybe being forced to shut down for who knows how long or limited hours. Maybe that average middle class family doesn’t upgrade their bikes this summer, or little Johnny gets a used bike instead of new....

die hard bikers will always find a way to get bike stuff but your average person may drift way from the LBS

**XXX-er** · 03-22-2020, 04:30 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

I am more concerned about the collapse in market demand, xxx. Not manufacturing capability...

everybody everything everywhere is kind of in the same boat ?

duno about where you are but my town is compeletely shut down period

So a buddy in bidness is really worried about paying the rent and all the $ obligations to customers who have paid for serivces in advance, so i pointed out the LL got paid on time/ in full for the last 7 years, is he going to evict you and if he did there is nobody else to rent to so he hasnt got a lot of choice but to work with you but I really have no idea how this is going to shake out

I have recieved FB post from several bike stores I deal with, they are still open but they are limiting the # of customers in the store at any one time to mitigate distancing, they want you to pickup your shit and leave so do not expect to hang out

**mmmm...pow!** · 03-22-2020, 05:48 PM

Seems like the market is pretty oversaturated with bike brands as it is. I'm not really sure how some of them have been making it as it was.

**Andeh** · 03-22-2020, 05:57 PM

Local shop has the "open" sign off and front door locked, but back door open, and are doing service. I ride with a couple of the mechanics, so glad to see that they're still getting some hours. I think they'll do OK as the shop owner owns the building. It does have me rethinking which new frame I'll buy. We're fortunate enough to have stable jobs, so I think we're OK if I still go through with that purchase. But as much as I'd love to get whatever the new Sentinel turns out to be, I could help out the local shop if I bought a Santa Cruz / Specialized / Ibis / Norco instead (since that's what the local shop carries).

**TBS** · 03-23-2020, 12:18 AM

My LBS is running on appointment only. And you stand outside while they bring what you might want to the door. Reasonable precautions when owner has one month-old baby at home.

He sells a shitload of Giant and BMC - like free trip to Italy to ride next years stuff shitload. But his bread and butter comes from a resort up the road. He makes 85% of his sales between Memorial and Labor days. Ain’t gonna be pretty for him - or for his staff

**Sutter** · 03-23-2020, 09:22 AM

Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

I was just getting ready to start buying up parts. Disc brake pads, spare tires, etc.

Lots of good sales going on right now. $20 XT resin pads, $35 180mm rotors.

**rideit** · 03-23-2020, 09:25 AM

Kudos, Industry 9.
Innovate or die.
I will certainly consider some in the future now if they produce a quiet microspline hub!

https://industrynine.com/

**Dantheman** · 03-23-2020, 10:36 AM

Originally Posted by rideit

I will certainly consider some in the future now if they produce a quiet microspline hub!

Heh. The Hydra hubs on my new wheels are definitely obnoxious. The engagement though, wow.

**rideit** · 03-23-2020, 10:38 AM

Now, if someone would make hubs that sounded like bear-bells...

That’s it!
My million dollar idea!
Kickstarter, who is in?

**rideit** · 03-23-2020, 12:04 PM

More Good news

https://www.velonews.com/2020/03/new...tMgT0kun4PrKvM

**XXX-er** · 03-23-2020, 12:51 PM

there will be good deals on everything right now if you got the cash you can afford to spend or will you need it later ?

**One (+) Sentence** · 03-23-2020, 01:02 PM

Depending how long this continues I wouldn’t be surprised if Model Year ‘21 is abbreviated, with few new models and maybe even color rollovers from some manufacturers. This will maybe help protect the inventory some companies have but are unable to ship, inventory brands are expecting to receive, and inventory sitting on LBS showroom floors. Some LBS’s may also need extended dating on products they have already received.

I know of at least one large bike brand that isn’t offering discounts right now that they normally would (NICA, grassroots, etc.) because they are uncertain of when they will have more stock of bikes in North America.

**TahoeJ** · 03-23-2020, 03:23 PM

Demand will be fine. Supply could be a problem for a lot of companies.

It's definitely going to have some impact on the outerwear industry for the same reason.

**grskier** · 03-23-2020, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by Sandbox

I see the average bike shop running into issues... maybe being forced to shut down for who knows how long or limited hours. Maybe that average middle class family doesn’t upgrade their bikes this summer, or little Johnny gets a used bike instead of new....

die hard bikers will always find a way to get bike stuff but your average person may drift way from the LBS

This is basically what I was going to respond.

I have already bought some various blingy things for the bike as I have more time not commuting.... so, gotta do something with that time.