Ski season cancelled?

[Shorty_J]

Un.Fucking.Real

Saw this on Instagram a few hours ago. Can’t put my finger on it. Is society as a whole a bunch of fucking ninnies? Is Covid19 a real enough concern? Is it worth calling it quits on? What the fuck.

Planned to go full on ski bum the last month of the season. Slowly tinkering on projects and skiing bumps in the afternoon. No go.

Viva keep me posted if you come south. I’ve still got you on that Orlando’s (so long as their still open).

Edit to add: why not something like “season passes holders only”?

I don't know you and I really don't want to offend you (which is surprising because this is TGR after all), but unless you are an infectious disease specialist, I'll listen to the experts, regardless if that makes me a "ninnie".

I'm not in the at risk group and while I don't want to get sick, if it was just me I wouldn't care that much.

But I have a 1 year old son and my 68 year old mother in the house, and putting them at risk is not worth it.

I'll heed the advice of the experts. I'm not going to the gym anymore and I would go skiing but will avoid spending time on the lodge buildings. I'm minimizing my risk, WITHOUT completely quarantining myself to reduce it to zero.

If a resort wants to shut down, that's unfortunate but it's also understandable.

Edit: if you want to ski bum and they shut the lifts, walk up and ski down and you'll have the place relatively to yourself. Sounds pretty good to me.

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[ill-advised strategy]

Un.Fucking.Real

Saw this on Instagram a few hours ago. Can’t put my finger on it. Is society as a whole a bunch of fucking ninnies? Is Covid19 a real enough concern? Is it worth calling it quits on? What the fuck.

Planned to go full on ski bum the last month of the season. Slowly tinkering on projects and skiing bumps in the afternoon. No go.

Viva keep me posted if you come south. I’ve still got you on that Orlando’s (so long as their still open).

Edit to add: why not something like “season passes holders only”?

Was just contemplating tsv post seasons recently...buddy sent me a pic of longhorn and I was remembering my sour feeling about that long mf because it was my post season uphill route from my Pattison Loop home.
Early April always seemed way too soon.
I feel for you getting shut down in friggin March.

[Meadow Skipper]

Taos:

Updated Closing Date: Sunday, March 22nd

Dear Taos Season Passholder

As you are likely following the COVID-19 situation, I want to provide you with an update regarding our winter operating season. This is a very dynamic situation and information is changing on a constant basis.

Our guests are the most important part of our business and our passholders are our family. As family, your health and safety are always at the forefront of our decision making. After much deliberation and considering many stakeholder interests, we have decided to modify our scheduled closing date to Sunday, March 22nd.

Please note that this decision did not come easily but we feel it is the best way to care for our people, our small, rural community, and our planet.

It is my sincere hope that you will join us next winter by purchasing a season pass when they become available in the coming days or weeks. Please note that we will not be going on sale on March 20th as we had previously stated. Stay tuned for more information regarding season passes for next season.

For more information about this update, please click here.

Sincerely,

Jeff Sherwood
Director of Resort Services

116 Sutton Place, Taos Ski Valley, NM 87525
Reservations: 800.776.1111 | Snowphone: 844.828.5601
Taos Ski Valley is an equal opportunity provider and employer under permit by the
USDA Forest Service, Carson National Forest.

This is a promotional email sent to you by Taos Ski Valley.
Preferences | Unsubscribe

[ticketchecker]

More bullshit. This group claims that U.S. border officials warned them about a Nova Scotia quarantine that doesn’t actually exist. Nova Scotia is recommending that residents returning from the States watch for signs of sickness when they get back.

This group used a made up story to get out of their booking. I suppose if ski resorts are going to make up stuff why not their visitors?

So much misinformation getting repeated by people when a simple internet search will show it’s simply not true,

Misinformation with the president we have? Shocking

I learned later today the 14 day quarantine for them would be self served. I guess meaning at home, they’re chose to not cross.

This particular group has been coming to our resort for 15 years so they’re not exactly looking for an out. And the guy I referred to is the tour operator who makes money bringing groups to our resort.

I saw three US border trucks huddled together this morning in Stratton, ME. That never happens, one is common. Three? Not ever

Apply grains of salt as needed.

[The AD]

Keep the lodges open but stop food service. The cafeterias are what really cause the large congregations of people, not to mention the possibility of food contamination.

Glad to see Vail Resorts was listening to me:

We are reducing operations at our on-mountain, quick-serve dining facilities to avoid crowding. We will have limited pre-packaged food options available, but we will not be serving hot food. Please plan accordingly.

http://news.vailresorts.com/corporat...il-resorts.htm

[bodywhomper]

https://www.sugarbowl.com/covid

[old goat]

https://www.sugarbowl.com/covid

I was at Sugar Bowl today. Zero line. I'm by myself. Guy hops an at the very last second forcing me to scramble to the side while at the same time avoiding the bar he slammed down without warning. Guess he didn't read about not enforcing full chairs.

[powdork]

Un.Fucking.Real

Saw this on Instagram a few hours ago. Can’t put my finger on it. Is society as a whole a bunch of fucking ninnies? Is Covid19 a real enough concern? Is it worth calling it quits on? What the fuck.

check this out, decide for yourself
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

[bodywhomper]

https://www.sugarbowl.com/covid

[Core Shot]

Rumors are circulating that JH might pull the plug. And if any cases appear in JH, schools are going to close.

So the tram is done.
That sucks.
Who’s gonna put the booter up the bowl?

I assume parking is now free?
Because the start bus is worse than the tram for disease and crowding

[ill-advised strategy]

check this out, decide for yourself
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

p a y w a l l

[Bunion 2020]

^^^^ F9 Toggle Reader View

[NathanL]

This is such a good weekend to ski in bounds in Tahoe. I'm torn.

[kootenayskier]

With 6” of new snow, unseasonably cold temps, the border effectively closed, all events cancelled, but with our old school chairs still turning, it’s a return to quieter simpler times here.

[Bunion 2020]

Enjoy, and wash your hands young man....

[Core Shot]

It’s fucking jay. They always get more snow.

I’m guessing it’s the border crossing that did them in. Not enough canucks.

Yup

The most recent tipping point for us was the announcement by the Quebec government to limit entry into the United States and similar restrictions placed on travelers from our Ontario markets. Given that we are about to welcome thousands of Ontario guests onto our campus, most of them returning friends and repeat vacationers, saying we are disappointed feels like the understatement of the century.

[Shorty_J]

check this out, decide for yourself
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

That article is terrifying.

If I understand the chart correctly they're suggesting that intervening today will still result in about 300,000 deaths in the USA alone?

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[Doremite]

That article is terrifying.

If I understand the chart correctly they're suggesting that intervening today will still result in about 300,000 deaths in the USA alone?

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Model actually more like 3x that (1M) through next summer if we stay the course we are on and warmer temps don’t knock this thing down.

[old goat]

p a y w a l l

Allow me to summarize: we're all gonna die.


You're welcome.

[bigdude2468]

check this out, decide for yourself
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

Absolutely necessary to be very worried, couple of points about the NY Times Editorial. They state they have made many assumptions, one being is no additional steps are taken including more testing. "Any disease model is only as good as the assumptions programmed into it, and there is so much uncertainly about the coronavirus that we shouldn't see this model as a precise prediction" Being published yesterday morning they were unaware of the emergency declaration and the (hopefully) large increase in testing. One thing I noticed was moving the graph bar to today (kind of a best case as this reflects strong invention & testing) showed 3.1 million infections and 320,000 deaths in the U.S., that's a mortality rate of 10%. I have not seen any numbers close to this. As of this morning Johns Hopkins reported 147,000 cases and 5,539 deaths worldwide, that's 3.7%. That number is quite a bit higher than we have had in the US, 2100 cases and 47 deaths, 2.2%. All but ten of the 47 (37) deaths occurred in Washington State, 13 at the nursing home.

Just over 80% of the cases are mild and some are asymptomatic. In the case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship 380 of the 691 people tested positive showed no symptoms. If and when the testing kicks in if we find many more cases we will have a better idea of the mortality rate. Also those individuals can self quarantine / get the care they need. Would be interesting to see the profile of the 47 deaths and how many were elderly with underlying issues or immuno compromised. (NY just reported their first death, 82 yo women with emphysema).

I am not trying to paint a rosy picture this is scary. But some of what the NY Times Editorial states seems to not match with other data.

[prsboogie]

Absolutely necessary to be very worried, couple of points about the NY Times Editorial. They state they have made many assumptions, one being is no additional steps are taken including more testing. "Any disease model is only as good as the assumptions programmed into it, and there is so much uncertainly about the coronavirus that we shouldn't see this model as a precise prediction" Being published yesterday morning they were unaware of the emergency declaration and the (hopefully) large increase in testing. One thing I noticed was moving the graph bar to today (kind of a best case as this reflects strong invention & testing) showed 3.1 million infections and 320,000 deaths in the U.S., that's a mortality rate of 10%. I have not seen any numbers close to this. As of this morning Johns Hopkins reported 147,000 cases and 5,539 deaths worldwide, that's 3.7%. That number is quite a bit higher than we have had in the US, 2100 cases and 47 deaths, 2.2%. All but ten of the 47 (37) deaths occurred in Washington State, 13 at the nursing home.

Just over 80% of the cases are mild and some are asymptomatic. In the case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship 380 of the 691 people tested positive showed no symptoms. If and when the testing kicks in if we find many more cases we will have a better idea of the mortality rate. Also those individuals can self quarantine / get the care they need. Would be interesting to see the profile of the 47 deaths and how many were elderly with underlying issues or immuno compromised. (NY just reported their first death, 82 yo women with emphysema).

I am not trying to paint a rosy picture this is scary. But some of what the NY Times Editorial states seems to not match with other data.

The problem with asymptomatic or mild symptoms is people do not sequester themselves and this virus is extremely communicable. It's just a matter of time before more susceptible individuals contract it. By no means am I an alarmist but precautions do need to be adhered to.

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[Shorty_J]

The article actually says 3.1 million people infected at one time during the peak, the total number of infected people is the area under the curve... way more than 3.1 million.

I.e. the earlier graph "if we stay on the current track, this model predicts that roughly a third of americans - more than 100 million people - could become infected (including more than 9 million at one time)... one million could die."

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[ill-advised strategy]

Allow me to summarize: we're all gonna die.


You're welcome.

I guess I should just pay for it then. can't take it with ya

[Vt-Freeheel]

This FB weather kook, skiology matt, is calling for every ski resort in North America to close for the season no later than Sunday. Tomorrow Sunday.

[powdork]

Absolutely necessary to be very worried, couple of points about the NY Times Editorial. They state they have made many assumptions, one being is no additional steps are taken including more testing. "Any disease model is only as good as the assumptions programmed into it, and there is so much uncertainly about the coronavirus that we shouldn't see this model as a precise prediction" Being published yesterday morning they were unaware of the emergency declaration and the (hopefully) large increase in testing. One thing I noticed was moving the graph bar to today (kind of a best case as this reflects strong invention & testing) showed 3.1 million infections and 320,000 deaths in the U.S., that's a mortality rate of 10%. I have not seen any numbers close to this. As of this morning Johns Hopkins reported 147,000 cases and 5,539 deaths worldwide, that's 3.7%. That number is quite a bit higher than we have had in the US, 2100 cases and 47 deaths, 2.2%. All but ten of the 47 (37) deaths occurred in Washington State, 13 at the nursing home.

Just over 80% of the cases are mild and some are asymptomatic. In the case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship 380 of the 691 people tested positive showed no symptoms. If and when the testing kicks in if we find many more cases we will have a better idea of the mortality rate. Also those individuals can self quarantine / get the care they need. Would be interesting to see the profile of the 47 deaths and how many were elderly with underlying issues or immuno compromised. (NY just reported their first death, 82 yo women with emphysema).

I am not trying to paint a rosy picture this is scary. But some of what the NY Times Editorial states seems to not match with other data.

They used an R0 of 2.3, and mortality rate of 1%

This model is based on a “replication rate,” or R0, of 2.3, meaning that, on average, 2.3 people are infected by each infected person. But we can reduce R0 with steps we take. The aggressive intervention as modeled here includes widespread drive-through testing; an end to large gatherings, including for concerts, movies, sports events and public assemblies; closures of schools in affected areas; efforts to encourage people to work from home and limit public transportation use; guaranteed sick pay; investments in supply chains for personal protective equipment; and major logistical support for hospitals that will be under enormous stress. The moderate intervention in this model includes a reduction in large gatherings; some school closures; promotion of work from home; and efforts to support hospitals and diagnostic testing. The mild intervention as modeled here is where we are now in the United States: It is a status quo in which some gatherings are canceled and there is promotion of social distancing and work from home, but with inadequate testing and unaddressed supply shortages.

The case fatality rate in this model is about 1 percent; this is affected by the age of the population and whether the hospitals are strained beyond capacity. The model does not take into account the possibility that warmer weather will reduce infections.