Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[jono]

As has been discussed, deaths are not showing as a lagging indicator. Go look it up yourself.
" testing maybe isn’t a good thing?"
vis a vis from where do you get that from?

Are you arguing that lag of deaths are showing as a leading indicator of stupid behavior as a leading indicator of infections as a leading indicator of hospitalizations as a leading indicator of deaths? Because I could totally get on board with that.

OTOH, deaths are on the rise and the charts you showed do not indicate above-average testing in the places reporting the most new cases. So a few of your statements might bear an edit or two.

[smmokan]

As has been discussed, deaths are not showing as a lagging indicator. Go look it up yourself.

Yeah, you're probably right. Definitely go look up Arizona, California, Florida, and South Carolina. They most certainly don't have increasing deaths three weeks after their cases started rising. Maybe you need to take a graph-reading class?

[jono]

I’m still confused whether asymptomatic people are contagious or not. Seems like it’s changed multiple times.

There are a few unfortunately-placed voices still trying to push that kind of nonsense (for the CCP? Possibly in bad faith?) But come on, you are still confused? I don't believe that. The rapid, silent spread of the virus ahead of the disease should tell you that. The world is not a controlled experiment, but the shear size of the sample should tell you something at this point, even if you don't pay enough attention to see recent studies on that subject.

[pureantigravity]

Are you arguing that lag of deaths are showing as a leading indicator of stupid behavior as a leading indicator of infections as a leading indicator of hospitalizations as a leading indicator of deaths? Because I could totally get on board with that.

OTOH, deaths are on the rise and the charts you showed do not indicate above-average testing in the places reporting the most new cases. So a few of your statements might bear an edit or two.

LOL. Sure. It's the sickle of life!

deaths are on the rise.
not really. not like before. and very very delayed if so.
perhaps this shows the HUUUGEE correlation you speak of.
please save me explaining this again.

[jono]

LOL. Sure. It's the sickle of life!

deaths are on the rise.
not really. not like before. and very very delayed if so.
perhaps this shows the HUUUGEE correlation you speak of.
please save me explaining this again.

Dude. "Before" we were overwhelming hospitals and killing the most vulnerable. If we get back to "before" it will be a failure almost as great as the one in January when we did nothing and let everyone without a Chinese passport just wander through customs. It sure as hell had better be different this time. But if the 3 to 4 week lag I'm seeing on those graphs continues we might just manage it.

Hint: deaths are up about a third in the last week vs the low. Find the place on the infection graph where daily infections was up about a third and you'll be looking at the 3-4 week lag.

[KenJongIll]

Did she ever have a fever? It seems that the current recommendation is that you wait three days after the fever has gone to re-enter the world.

Don’t think so..

[KenJongIll]

There are a few unfortunately-placed voices still trying to push that kind of nonsense (for the CCP? Possibly in bad faith?) But come on, you are still confused? I don't believe that. The rapid, silent spread of the virus ahead of the disease should tell you that. The world is not a controlled experiment, but the shear size of the sample should tell you something at this point, even if you don't pay enough attention to see recent studies on that subject.

You really can’t see why people would be confused with the waffling of experts? This was shouted everywhere on June 8th.

https://time.com/5850256/who-asymptomatic-spread/

“So it came as a surprise when Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) technical lead for COVID-19, said at a press briefing on June 8 that asymptomatic transmission appears to be “very rare.”


https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/...read-covid-19/

[XXX-er]

This is the problem we've been talking about in this thread forever. Why is it that a large segment of the population believes some bullshit that some friend "heard" over the opinions posited by experts? It makes no sense. I'm sure there's some psychological explanation for this.

The lawyer I used to ski with talked about this, he said that time after time instead of taking the advice given in an initial consult the prospective client would listen to the guy at the mill in the lunch room,

The client fails to deal with his problem, 6 month later is really in shit so they book another meeting, half way thru meeting client gets up to plug the parking meter, buddy law would say " wait a minute IF you get a ticket its only 10$ and I'm charging you 300$ an hr "

[Mofro261]

As has been discussed, deaths are not showing as a lagging indicator. Go look it up yourself.
" testing maybe isn’t a good thing?"
vis a vis from where do you get that from?

Hi Purigravity, people who get tested TODAY 07/16 are not the same batch that are dying TODAY 07/16. From onset of symptoms to death, has an average of 14+ days. The average delay in reporting deaths until othey show up in the data, is 7 days. So TODAY's death numbers for 07/16 are on average from people who developed symptoms 21 days ago and were tested thereafter. Outliers certainly exist where people die both prior to 14 days, usually from the result of blood clots and brain aneursyms, or much longer than 14 days after weeks of hospitalization on a vent, but that 14 day to death and 21 days until it shows up in the data are the averages we have in the US after 3.6 million cases and 140,000 deaths.

[Mustonen]

Here's what we don't know.
Where the deaths are low, and cases are low,
less people actually get tested.
It isn't necessarily because there are not so many people infected or newly infected.
Panic and pandemonium and the impetus to test
can also be a bad thing.

As has been discussed, deaths are not showing as a lagging indicator. Go look it up yourself.
" testing maybe isn’t a good thing?"
vis a vis from where do you get that from?

The impetus to test can be a bad thing. Why?

[jono]

You really can’t see why people would be confused with the waffling of experts? This was shouted everywhere on June 8th.

https://time.com/5850256/who-asymptomatic-spread/

“So it came as a surprise when Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) technical lead for COVID-19, said at a press briefing on June 8 that asymptomatic transmission appears to be “very rare.”


https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/...read-covid-19/

Notice how that was described as "a surprise?" Because it was bullshit and everyone knew that. The unfortunately well-placed voices to which I referred are almost all goons at the WHO.

[LegoSkier]

I will say Seattle does have their shit together for testing. Went through the North Seattle drive-through operation on Monday. Made an appointment, uploaded a pic of my insurance. Showed up at the set time at the former state emissions testing place. 4 lanes all drive through. Easy peasy 10 minutes in line then a fireman in full gear stuck the swab halfway up my brain. Was sort of like going through the Canadian border on a very empty day. Results back two days later (negative). All free, all run by the city, UW, & Seattle FD. This is the way this shit should be run nation-wide.

[Meadow Skipper]

This is the problem we've been talking about in this thread forever. Why is it that a large segment of the population believes some bullshit that some friend "heard" over the opinions posited by experts? It makes no sense. I'm sure there's some psychological explanation for this.

Well, there’s Confirmation Bias, which covers a lot of this. Some people tend to believe what they want to believe.

[CarlMega]

but if it happened to you, would you then dismiss it as a narrative or would you also find it odd?

That's gold right there. But it didn't happen to *you* or even someone you know. It's some rando-telling you, some other rando's story and now you are here telling a thrice removed story. It's not even anecdotal at that point but a gossip, telephone game without an unidentifiable subject - told by people who already have a preferred narrative.

[The Tortoise]

Things are fine in Florida. Nothing to see here.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...d-19-1.5651649

It's going to get a lot worse there before it gets better.

[KenJongIll]

Notice how that was described as "a surprise?" Because it was bullshit and everyone knew that. The unfortunately well-placed voices to which I referred are almost all goons at the WHO.

Goons at the WHO. Certainly agree with that! They’ve been goons from the get go.
But when that statement came out...every news outlet trumpeted it.

[Benny Profane]

I will say Seattle does have their shit together for testing. Went through the North Seattle drive-through operation on Monday. Made an appointment, uploaded a pic of my insurance. Showed up at the set time at the former state emissions testing place. 4 lanes all drive through. Easy peasy 10 minutes in line then a fireman in full gear stuck the swab halfway up my brain. Was sort of like going through the Canadian border on a very empty day. Results back two days later (negative). All free, all run by the city, UW, & Seattle FD. This is the way this shit should be run nation-wide.

Except for the insurance part.

[Kevo]

I had a realization today that I haven't been sick all year. I used to travel 30+ weeks a year for work. All the time on planes meant I was constantly getting sick, but since I've been working from home since Feb I haven't gotten sick once. It's been really, really nice.

[Ted Striker]

The "my neighbor's co-worker..." start puts it under suspicion from the get go.

Ah the ol'neighbor's co-worker. So many strange yet narratively convenient things seem to happen to them.

MontuckyFried always knows someone who...

nothing he likes better than telling a good story...

First time you tell the story: I heard about this guy...

Third time you tell the story: My friend...

Fifth time you tell the story: I...

[jono]

Goons at the WHO. Certainly agree with that! They’ve been goons from the get go.
But when that statement came out...every news outlet trumpeted it.

When the WHO says something that nonsensical it's news. You can't not report it. But you know better than to take everything at face value. It's not like your neighbor can vouch for that.

If only there were some other example of how proper filtration can help prevent dangerous stuff from getting through and reeking all sorts of havoc.

[LegoSkier]

Except for the insurance part.

They (UW) bills your insurance if you have it, otherwise they bill the feds (federal uninsured COVID testing fund). So, no, no one tested receives a bill.

[jono]

Well, there’s Confirmation Bias, which covers a lot of this. Some people tend to believe what they want to believe.

Confirmation bias is so rampant as to be undeniable these days. I think what's harder to pin down is why do people want to believe something. I'm thinking fear-based denial, mostly. Unable to accept reality, they seek alternate explanations.

[huckbucket]

Things are fine in Florida. Nothing to see here.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...d-19-1.5651649

It's going to get a lot worse there before it gets better.

Waiting for the Dump argument that eventually FL will run out of people to infect and then the virus will disappear. One day, it will be like magic. No one could have imagined.

[Flounder]

I had a realization today that I haven't been sick all year. I used to travel 30+ weeks a year for work. All the time on planes meant I was constantly getting sick, but since I've been working from home since Feb I haven't gotten sick once. It's been really, really nice.

I know. Pretty awesome isn't it. I'd slowed down travel the past couple of years but still about once a month. I was so used to having a post travel cold that if I didn't get sick it was a surprise.

[Meadow Skipper]

Confirmation bias is so rampant as to be undeniable these days. I think what's harder to pin down is why do people want to believe something. I'm thinking fear-based denial, mostly. Unable to accept reality, they seek alternate explanations.

It’s interesting. My reading seems to lead me to people wanting to have the world make sense according to their desires. Why/how their desires are formed...I haven’t gotten to that yet. I sometimes suspect that instantaneous gratification plays a part, and things like 24/7 media and internet access just exacerbate the whole issue.

People are prone to believe what they want to believe.

Confirmation bias occurs from the direct influence of desire on beliefs. When people would like a certain idea or concept to be true, they end up believing it to be true. They are motivated by wishful thinking.

The Confirmation Bias: Why People See What They Want to See