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  1. #20001
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    Apr 2004
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    Time to get serious on penalties for hacking. Ransom for covid research data? Bullshit... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=hod8KEUY

  2. #20002
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
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    This is speculative and highly uncertain at this point: genetic variation, dosage and cross immunity with other coronaviruses etc., some combination of which could mean the percentage of population susceptible to SARS2 is substantially smaller:

    • If a person is exposed at a low enough dose some form of “dark matter” be it mucosal antibodies or T-cells or some other genetic factor means never becoming infected
    • Studies indicate some form of pre-existing immunity or crossreactive immunity with other coronaviruses
    • Super-spreaders, not homogeneous spread among individuals with the same viral load, suggests focusing on clustering events can curtail dangerous community spread
    • Geographical partition
    • Seasonality
    • People voluntarily engaging in avoidance behaviors once they understand the risk


    None of this means high percentages are technically immune to SARS2 but it does suggest most people will never develop COVID-19 as long as the disease isn’t running rampant in a given population. From a statistical standpoint is it isn’t necessary to know what all the factors are, the so called “dark matter,” only that the mathematical structure of the phenomenon can be inferred.

    All of the above could explain the low number of infected and seropositive cases in relation to fatality rates:

    https://medium.com/@karlfriston/immu...r-b48e20bba9ea

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...al-dark-matter

  3. #20003
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kinnikinnick View Post
    What happened to self reliance in Red State America?

    They got the govt that they wanted, didnt they?
    My bootstrap investments are poised to pay off... BIGLY!

  4. #20004
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
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    EWA
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    22,004
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Ugh....

    Ohio representative Nino Vitale explains why he is opposed to face masks: ‘We’re created in the image and likeness of God. When we think of image, do we think of a chest or our legs or our arms? We think of their faces. I don’t want to cover people’s faces ... That’s the image of God right there and I want to see it in my brothers and sisters.’


    A right-wing columnist opines on the president’s refusal to wear a mask: ‘What Trump is really doing is projecting American strength and health at a time when strong leadership is needed ... An image of Donald Trump wearing a protective face mask ... would be a searing image of weakness. It would signal that the United States is so powerless against this invisible enemy sprung from China that even its president must cower behind a mask.’
    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  5. #20005
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    Feb 2012
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    10,901
    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    No, she was pretty athletic and enjoyed traveling. Odd question.
    Stop lying, she was motionless your entire relationship.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  6. #20006
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    Sep 2001
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    Before
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    A right-wing columnist opines on the president’s refusal to wear a mask: ‘What Trump is really doing is projecting American strength and health at a time when strong leadership is needed ... An image of Donald Trump wearing a protective face mask ... would be a searing image of weakness. It would signal that the United States is so powerless against this invisible enemy sprung from China that even its president must cower behind a mask.’
    I laffed.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
    >>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<

  7. #20007
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    Aspen
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    Supposedly no new cases from Lake of the Ozarks party.

    https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/...d0f6510ac.html

  8. #20008
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    Supposedly no new cases from Lake of the Ozarks party.

    https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/...d0f6510ac.html
    If the shit doesn't hit the fan in a few weeks after these protests, we're safe this summer.

  9. #20009
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    Aug 2007
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    United States of Aburdistan
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    Utah cases are trending up.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  10. #20010
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    Oct 2003
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    Aspen
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casey E View Post
    https://time.com/5847226/wuhan-10-mi...navirus-tests/


    Wuhan Tests Nearly 10 Million People in 19 Days, Finding Just 300 Coronavirus Infections

    “It not only makes the people of Wuhan feel at ease, it also increases people’s confidence in all of China,” Feng Zijian, vice director of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told state broadcaster CCTV.”

    Is that so?
    It identified just 300 positive cases, all of whom had no symptoms. The city found no infections among 1,174 close contacts of the people who tested positive, suggesting they were not spreading it easily to others.

  11. #20011
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    Nov 2005
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    8,318
    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    It identified just 300 positive cases, all of whom had no symptoms. The city found no infections among 1,174 close contacts of the people who tested positive, suggesting they were not spreading it easily to others.
    Any of the resident experts want to comment on the likelihood that these were not active infections that were detected? Also, is their testing that good at avoiding false positives?

    If this data can be believed it would make a really good strategy for the US (if we were fast and responsive and stuff).

  12. #20012
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    Aug 2015
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    231
    Not sure if posted already (hard to keep up), but this news gives me some hope:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astr...s-vaccine.html


    From article -


    • AstraZeneca plans to distribute 1 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine to low and middle-income countries, with 400 million available this year.
    • In addition, the U.S. and U.K. are set to be sent 400 million vaccine doses between them, starting in September.
    • The vaccine, named AZD1222, was originally developed by Oxford University in the U.K.

  13. #20013
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    Oct 2003
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    High altitude humans may be immune?

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/wor...=MSN_rss_brief

  14. #20014
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    Jan 2010
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    In the swamp
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    11,124
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    If the shit doesn't hit the fan in a few weeks after these protests, we're safe this summer.
    Yep. Between Mem Day, fairly quick reopening and the protests. We should know a lot in a few weeks.

  15. #20015
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
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    Keep Tacoma Feared
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    5,266
    From NY Times today:

    "On May 30, more new cases were reported in a single day worldwide than ever before: 134,064. The increase has been driven by emerging hot spots in Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East."

    "The increases in some countries can be attributed to improved testing programs. But in many places, it appears that the virus has only now arrived with a wide scope and fatal force."

  16. #20016
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    Sep 2004
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    4,054
    Fascinating news on the med front, in that both Lancet and NEJM, two of the most respected clinical journals in the world, have retracted published articles on hydroxychloroquine vs. SARS CoV 2. This is due to the fact that, after being challenged, the primary data could not be verified, as it came from a private entity that was unwilling to reveal the full dataset (citing privacy concerns).

    Several of the authors themselves requested the retraction, stating that they "could no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” This is a big deal in the academic medical field, but just goes to show how crazy things are that such a staid backwater can get stirred up by the current crisis.

    I commented on the Lancet article earlier in this thread. Upshot is that the risk vs. benefit equation re: HCQ is back up in the air again. Preclinical (cell culture and animal) models seem to indicate it might be useful, some small and sloppy studies from France and China indicate a potential benefit, verdict is still out. My own feeling is that the signal, if any, is still pretty weak in terms of benefit but definitely a possibility. Risks are fairly well established.

    Also mentioned upthread, Vitamin D data is looking intruiging, and it is generally safe, at least when not taken in megadoses.

  17. #20017
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    Oct 2006
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    Bellevue
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tri-Ungulate View Post
    Fascinating news on the med front, in that both Lancet and NEJM, two of the most respected clinical journals in the world, have retracted published articles on hydroxychloroquine vs. SARS CoV 2. This is due to the fact that, after being challenged, the primary data could not be verified, as it came from a private entity that was unwilling to reveal the full dataset (citing privacy concerns).

    Several of the authors themselves requested the retraction, stating that they "could no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” This is a big deal in the academic medical field, but just goes to show how crazy things are that such a staid backwater can get stirred up by the current crisis.

    I commented on the Lancet article earlier in this thread. Upshot is that the risk vs. benefit equation re: HCQ is back up in the air again. Preclinical (cell culture and animal) models seem to indicate it might be useful, some small and sloppy studies from France and China indicate a potential benefit, verdict is still out. My own feeling is that the signal, if any, is still pretty weak in terms of benefit but definitely a possibility. Risks are fairly well established.

    Also mentioned upthread, Vitamin D data is looking intruiging, and it is generally safe, at least when not taken in megadoses.
    I saw that. This concern from the open letter seems like a pretty unlikely situation:

    Data from Africa indicate that nearly 25% of all COVID-19 cases and 40% of all deaths in the continent occurred in Surgisphere-associated hospitals which had sophisticated electronic patient data recording, and patient monitoring able to detect and record ‘nonsustained [at least 6 secs] or sustained ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation.’ Both the numbers of cases and deaths, and the detailed data collection, seem unlikely.

  18. #20018
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Matchbox 20
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    2,313
    Why wouldn't the majority of Covid victims be vitamin D deficient?
    They spend most of their days indoors in nursing homes with no sunlight.
    Their diets are probably deficient and their metabolisms wonky.
    It would be interesting to see how they adjusted for that in the studies.

  19. #20019
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    Jun 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    High altitude humans may be immune?

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/wor...=MSN_rss_brief
    They also might be socially distanced already.

  20. #20020
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    Sep 2006
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    6,388
    I suppose I should move all the skis out of my kitchen.

  21. #20021
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    truckee
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    23,111
    Quote Originally Posted by Tri-Ungulate View Post
    Fascinating news on the med front, in that both Lancet and NEJM, two of the most respected clinical journals in the world, have retracted published articles on hydroxychloroquine vs. SARS CoV 2. This is due to the fact that, after being challenged, the primary data could not be verified, as it came from a private entity that was unwilling to reveal the full dataset (citing privacy concerns).

    Several of the authors themselves requested the retraction, stating that they "could no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” This is a big deal in the academic medical field, but just goes to show how crazy things are that such a staid backwater can get stirred up by the current crisis.

    I commented on the Lancet article earlier in this thread. Upshot is that the risk vs. benefit equation re: HCQ is back up in the air again. Preclinical (cell culture and animal) models seem to indicate it might be useful, some small and sloppy studies from France and China indicate a potential benefit, verdict is still out. My own feeling is that the signal, if any, is still pretty weak in terms of benefit but definitely a possibility. Risks are fairly well established.
    OTOH there's no decent study that shows it works, despite something like 158 studies undertaken or planned. Hard to talk about risk vs benefit when no one has demonstrated a benefit yet.

  22. #20022
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    Watching over the valley
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    4,996
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    That's a pretty good read. We have an American virus alright. It's called trumpism.
    There you go. Full polyass.

    sent from Utah.
    sigless.

  23. #20023
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
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    Upstate
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    9,674
    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    OTOH there's no decent study that shows it works, despite something like 158 studies undertaken or planned. Hard to talk about risk vs benefit when no one has demonstrated a benefit yet.
    Yup. This came out around the same time as the retractions;

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

    Clearly described, placebo controlled, randomized study shows that HCQ used after exposure to SARS-Cov2 does NOT work. We need to move on.

  24. #20024
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    Jan 2007
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    Upstate
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    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....31.20114991v1

    This is a fascinating new study. Genome wide association of roughly 2,000 infected people from Spain and Italy attempting to connect genetic variation across the whole genome with susceptibility for the development of respiratory failure in Covid-19. They found two significant variants in the vicinity of two genes with seemingly rational relatedness to the Covid biology.

    The first is near a gene called SLC6A20 which encodes a known interaction partner with angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). The second and potentially more interesting one is in the ABO blood group locus. They then go on to perform a blood-group-specific analysis of the patient data and a higher risk for A-positive individuals (OR=1.45, 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.75, P=1.48x10-4) and a protective effect for blood group O (OR=0.65, 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.79, P=1.06x10-5).

    We've seen this hypothesis before:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20031096v2
    Note that in that study is was "associated risk of acquired infection" and not "respiratory failure."

    Why might this be?

    ABO blood groups are caused by different sugar groups that decorate the outside of your red blood cells. A and B have extra sugars (called fucose) on them, which are missing in group O. The A blood group antigen structure resembles another sugar group called “alpha-gal” that humans lack but every other species possesses (because we deleted the enzyme alpha-galactosyl transferase) very early in evolution. It was published in the late 90s that everyone has natural antibodies to alpha-gal as a result (because it’s foreign to us but present everywhere in our environment) - and it was predicted that these antibodies played an important role as first-line defense vs infection. It was then shown that people with A blood group have much lower levels of anti-alpha gal natural antibodies, particularly IgG2 class. Why? Because anti-alpha gal cross-reacts to A blood group antigen - so gets deleted in early life in A individuals to prevent autoimmunity. The authors proposed that O blood group was therefore a positively-selected trait with a survival advantage versus A under high infectious load. The suggestion is that the #COVID19 data is showing us that effect in action. The effect isn’t binary (O people still can get disease) but the level of thus front-line protection will reduce the apparent dose of virus received when exposed - so “left shift” the severity curve.

    Bottom line: ABO blood group antigens are complex carbohydrates, and they change the landscape of natural anti-carbohydrate antibodies present at high levels in everybody’s blood. These antibodies play a key role in defense against against pathogens. Not sure how to leverage this information, but

  25. #20025
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    Apr 2004
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    "These antibodies play a key role in defense against against pathogens. Not sure how to leverage this information, but..."

    Great post Huck.

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