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06-04-2020, 08:02 AM #20001Registered User
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Time to get serious on penalties for hacking. Ransom for covid research data? Bullshit... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=hod8KEUY
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06-04-2020, 09:02 AM #20002
This is speculative and highly uncertain at this point: genetic variation, dosage and cross immunity with other coronaviruses etc., some combination of which could mean the percentage of population susceptible to SARS2 is substantially smaller:
- If a person is exposed at a low enough dose some form of “dark matter” be it mucosal antibodies or T-cells or some other genetic factor means never becoming infected
- Studies indicate some form of pre-existing immunity or crossreactive immunity with other coronaviruses
- Super-spreaders, not homogeneous spread among individuals with the same viral load, suggests focusing on clustering events can curtail dangerous community spread
- Geographical partition
- Seasonality
- People voluntarily engaging in avoidance behaviors once they understand the risk
None of this means high percentages are technically immune to SARS2 but it does suggest most people will never develop COVID-19 as long as the disease isn’t running rampant in a given population. From a statistical standpoint is it isn’t necessary to know what all the factors are, the so called “dark matter,” only that the mathematical structure of the phenomenon can be inferred.
All of the above could explain the low number of infected and seropositive cases in relation to fatality rates:
https://medium.com/@karlfriston/immu...r-b48e20bba9ea
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...al-dark-matter
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06-04-2020, 10:38 AM #20003
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06-04-2020, 11:24 AM #20004
Ugh....
Ohio representative Nino Vitale explains why he is opposed to face masks: ‘We’re created in the image and likeness of God. When we think of image, do we think of a chest or our legs or our arms? We think of their faces. I don’t want to cover people’s faces ... That’s the image of God right there and I want to see it in my brothers and sisters.’
A right-wing columnist opines on the president’s refusal to wear a mask: ‘What Trump is really doing is projecting American strength and health at a time when strong leadership is needed ... An image of Donald Trump wearing a protective face mask ... would be a searing image of weakness. It would signal that the United States is so powerless against this invisible enemy sprung from China that even its president must cower behind a mask.’“When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis
Kindness is a bridge between all people
Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism
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06-04-2020, 12:00 PM #20005
Stop lying, she was motionless your entire relationship.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
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06-04-2020, 12:22 PM #20006
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06-04-2020, 12:53 PM #20007
Supposedly no new cases from Lake of the Ozarks party.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/...d0f6510ac.html
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06-04-2020, 01:12 PM #20008
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06-04-2020, 01:29 PM #20009Registered User
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- Aug 2007
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- United States of Aburdistan
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- 7,281
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06-04-2020, 01:31 PM #20010
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06-04-2020, 03:01 PM #20011
Any of the resident experts want to comment on the likelihood that these were not active infections that were detected? Also, is their testing that good at avoiding false positives?
If this data can be believed it would make a really good strategy for the US (if we were fast and responsive and stuff).
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06-04-2020, 04:02 PM #20012
Not sure if posted already (hard to keep up), but this news gives me some hope:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astr...s-vaccine.html
From article -
- AstraZeneca plans to distribute 1 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine to low and middle-income countries, with 400 million available this year.
- In addition, the U.S. and U.K. are set to be sent 400 million vaccine doses between them, starting in September.
- The vaccine, named AZD1222, was originally developed by Oxford University in the U.K.
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06-04-2020, 04:04 PM #20013
High altitude humans may be immune?
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/wor...=MSN_rss_brief
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06-04-2020, 05:16 PM #20014
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06-04-2020, 05:26 PM #20015
From NY Times today:
"On May 30, more new cases were reported in a single day worldwide than ever before: 134,064. The increase has been driven by emerging hot spots in Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East."
"The increases in some countries can be attributed to improved testing programs. But in many places, it appears that the virus has only now arrived with a wide scope and fatal force."
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06-04-2020, 09:14 PM #20016
Fascinating news on the med front, in that both Lancet and NEJM, two of the most respected clinical journals in the world, have retracted published articles on hydroxychloroquine vs. SARS CoV 2. This is due to the fact that, after being challenged, the primary data could not be verified, as it came from a private entity that was unwilling to reveal the full dataset (citing privacy concerns).
Several of the authors themselves requested the retraction, stating that they "could no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” This is a big deal in the academic medical field, but just goes to show how crazy things are that such a staid backwater can get stirred up by the current crisis.
I commented on the Lancet article earlier in this thread. Upshot is that the risk vs. benefit equation re: HCQ is back up in the air again. Preclinical (cell culture and animal) models seem to indicate it might be useful, some small and sloppy studies from France and China indicate a potential benefit, verdict is still out. My own feeling is that the signal, if any, is still pretty weak in terms of benefit but definitely a possibility. Risks are fairly well established.
Also mentioned upthread, Vitamin D data is looking intruiging, and it is generally safe, at least when not taken in megadoses.
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06-04-2020, 09:25 PM #20017
I saw that. This concern from the open letter seems like a pretty unlikely situation:
Data from Africa indicate that nearly 25% of all COVID-19 cases and 40% of all deaths in the continent occurred in Surgisphere-associated hospitals which had sophisticated electronic patient data recording, and patient monitoring able to detect and record ‘nonsustained [at least 6 secs] or sustained ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation.’ Both the numbers of cases and deaths, and the detailed data collection, seem unlikely.
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06-04-2020, 09:36 PM #20018
Why wouldn't the majority of Covid victims be vitamin D deficient?
They spend most of their days indoors in nursing homes with no sunlight.
Their diets are probably deficient and their metabolisms wonky.
It would be interesting to see how they adjusted for that in the studies.
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06-04-2020, 09:37 PM #20019
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06-04-2020, 09:38 PM #20020
I suppose I should move all the skis out of my kitchen.
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06-04-2020, 10:39 PM #20021
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06-04-2020, 11:35 PM #20022
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06-05-2020, 04:43 AM #20023
Yup. This came out around the same time as the retractions;
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
Clearly described, placebo controlled, randomized study shows that HCQ used after exposure to SARS-Cov2 does NOT work. We need to move on.
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06-05-2020, 05:09 AM #20024
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....31.20114991v1
This is a fascinating new study. Genome wide association of roughly 2,000 infected people from Spain and Italy attempting to connect genetic variation across the whole genome with susceptibility for the development of respiratory failure in Covid-19. They found two significant variants in the vicinity of two genes with seemingly rational relatedness to the Covid biology.
The first is near a gene called SLC6A20 which encodes a known interaction partner with angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). The second and potentially more interesting one is in the ABO blood group locus. They then go on to perform a blood-group-specific analysis of the patient data and a higher risk for A-positive individuals (OR=1.45, 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.75, P=1.48x10-4) and a protective effect for blood group O (OR=0.65, 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.79, P=1.06x10-5).
We've seen this hypothesis before:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20031096v2
Note that in that study is was "associated risk of acquired infection" and not "respiratory failure."
Why might this be?
ABO blood groups are caused by different sugar groups that decorate the outside of your red blood cells. A and B have extra sugars (called fucose) on them, which are missing in group O. The A blood group antigen structure resembles another sugar group called “alpha-gal” that humans lack but every other species possesses (because we deleted the enzyme alpha-galactosyl transferase) very early in evolution. It was published in the late 90s that everyone has natural antibodies to alpha-gal as a result (because it’s foreign to us but present everywhere in our environment) - and it was predicted that these antibodies played an important role as first-line defense vs infection. It was then shown that people with A blood group have much lower levels of anti-alpha gal natural antibodies, particularly IgG2 class. Why? Because anti-alpha gal cross-reacts to A blood group antigen - so gets deleted in early life in A individuals to prevent autoimmunity. The authors proposed that O blood group was therefore a positively-selected trait with a survival advantage versus A under high infectious load. The suggestion is that the #COVID19 data is showing us that effect in action. The effect isn’t binary (O people still can get disease) but the level of thus front-line protection will reduce the apparent dose of virus received when exposed - so “left shift” the severity curve.
Bottom line: ABO blood group antigens are complex carbohydrates, and they change the landscape of natural anti-carbohydrate antibodies present at high levels in everybody’s blood. These antibodies play a key role in defense against against pathogens. Not sure how to leverage this information, but
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06-05-2020, 05:46 AM #20025Registered User
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"These antibodies play a key role in defense against against pathogens. Not sure how to leverage this information, but..."
Great post Huck.
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