Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[hutash]

I imagine you as one of those angry older white guys with a grey goatee and a gut that just thinks the world screwed him.

Funny, that is exactly how I imagine you.

[huckbucket]

No, dude, unless one is born of money and has some in the bank at the level of, you know, fuck you money at least where one doesn't have to worry about living comfortably until the last day and make the family's life comfortable, one has to learn early to walk the line and not do and say stupid shit that really doesn't matter except making a point. You know, everybody has to work for a living, up to a certain point.

In that, you just try to deliver the best level of "competence" you can.

We live in a time when some people's lives are destroyed in days when they get canceled. Orwellian.

At least your consistent. Consistently myopic and pessimistic. FWIW, I've been a paid scientist for 23 years, almost all of that time in industry and I've worked with plenty of people who say stupid shit and don't "walk the line." In fact, many of the brightest people I've known didn't "walk the line." How long have you worked in science (academic, industry, etc)?

[old goat]

Like who? I've been following Trevor Bedford's twitter (Fred Hutch mathematician/epidemiologist) during the entire pandemic and found it to be invaluable. Same for Ashish K. Jha. I've read numerous opinion pieces by Ezekiel Emanuel, Michael Osterholm, Marc Lipsitch, and Neil Ferguson. Some of these opinion pieces have been completely counter to what the government was pushing at the time. Should all these people just shut up and let the government control our thought?

What I find most frustrating about the COVID media experience is you have your dumbed down NYTimes takes. And you have like 100,000 peer reviewed scientific papers on COVID, and there isn't much in the middle. I greatly appreciate the scientists who chose to share their knowledge for the masses on places like twitter, particularly since this stuff changes so fast. I never read twitter in my life until COVID came along.

I pay attention to mainstream media--like the NYT--for news, and then I try to find the primary source. I don't pay any attention to the opinion pieces unless they're by a scientist I trust, but that doesn't happen much. It amuses me that people who spend their opining on politics think they're qualified to opine about covid. Mostly they're not qualified to discuss politics--see 2016--but that's another story for another forum.

Benny fantasizes about meadowskipper, Hutash fantasizes about Benny. All this going on around me and I was totally oblivious. Wow.

[bodywhomper]

gotta use long term sick leave but that’s what it’s for

I was thinking I might go back early if I feel good but that’s really only going to be a day or two so why bother?

if I feel better I’ll go do some touring for exercise

Hope you feel better soon. Not feeling good would be my reason for not reporting to work unless I’m in a dire situation with a fucked up job.

Supposedly, the research data for omicron indicates that a negative antigen test after many days of known infection indicates that you’re past the contagious stage.

[ex-powderbroker]

[Percy Rideout]

You’d be wrong - I’m really happy, no goatee, and I’m rich and a 150 pound hardbody. I’m living the dream, and glad I’m not like you at all.

You’re really flailing these days.

[altasnob]

Trevor Bedford estimates that between 36-46% of the US will have been infected by Omicron by mid-February. That's over a span of only eight weeks. To put this in perspective, the flu can infect 10% of the US population over the course of 16 weeks. Bedford says he can't think of any modern precedent for a disease to spread so fast across humanity and he doesn't know if this will be a yearly thing, or every decade thing.

If you are wondering how Bedford gets to the above, there has been 15 million confirmed Omicron cases in the US by Jan 17, the peak of the Omicron wave across the US. Just as many cases occur after the peak as before, so double that 15 million. And then he believes only 1 out of 4 or 1 out of 5 cases are actually tested and confirmed (he has a thread where he explains why he uses these ratios).

https://twitter.com/trvrb?ref_src=tw...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[MagnificentUnicorn]

From what I understand, most scientist think that if Omicron is it, and no other immunity evading variant comes out of the woods, then more shots will not be necessary. But no one can realistically forecast whether Omicron is it. There seems to be a lot of cautious optimism going around though.

Here is something to chew on. Switzerland recently became one of the first nations to separate deaths into three categories; unvaccinated, vaccinated, and vaccinated plus booster. How you interpret the data depends on what you are trying to argue. The difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated/booster is huge. The difference between vaccinated and vaccinated plus booster, not that huge. This doesn't say boosters are not needed (they certainly help). But it also shows how effective the original two dose vaccine is.

To get to my point, what do we hope to accomplish with the vaccine? If the goal is to prevent serious illness and death, we may have already achieved that with what has already been administered. If the goal is to prevent any symptomatic infection, then we will need more shots.

Flogging a dead horse. Keep bloviating, nothing you post is enlightening or original in content.


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[SumJongGuy]

I imagine you as one of those angry older white guys with a grey goatee and a gut that just thinks the world screwed him.

I would put good money on Meadow Skipper against you in just about any physical conditioning challenge.

[altasnob]

Netherlands announces they will be easing COVID related restrictions despite the fact that cases are increasing. Netherlands was quite restricted relative to other places on earth previous to this, so it is not too surprising they are choosing to ease those restrictions. But it is telling that they are choosing to do so at the same time cases are going up, not down.



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60129830

[MagnificentUnicorn]

I’m not sure what you mean.

Neither is Benny. He’s just spouting nonsense. Old man yelling at clouds.


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[Percy Rideout]

I would put good money on Meadow Skipper against you in just about any physical conditioning challenge.

Time for a ski off. Where and when?

[altasnob]

nothing you post is enlightening

Switzerland being the first to separate out data for vaccinated, vaccinated plus booster, and unvaccinated is not something that interests you or you think is important? Is there another country out there doing this? Why do you not find this data interesting?

[SumJongGuy]

Someone needs to change this to Bernny Wants to Ski Italy..

[SumJongGuy]

Time for a ski off. Where and when?

Italy!

[altasnob]

The WHO is still sounding the alarm of the unvaccinated poor countries. From NYTimes today:

Although vaccine shortages are easing, only about 62 percent of the world’s population has received at least one shot, and a striking divide between the rich and poor regions of the world remains. In low-income countries, only 10 percent of the population has received at least one dose. In high- and upper-middle-income countries, 78 percent have received at least one dose.

The potential consequences of the vaccine gap have been underscored by Omicron, which was first identified in southern Africa. Low vaccination coverage creates conditions for widespread virus circulation and with that the possibility of new variants emerging.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the W.H.O., said “It’s dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame. On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge.”

In my opinion, this is where 100% of our efforts, and every wealthy country on earth's efforts, should be at this point.

[jono]

The WHO is still sounding the alarm of the unvaccinated poor countries. From NYTimes today:

Although vaccine shortages are easing, only about 62 percent of the world’s population has received at least one shot, and a striking divide between the rich and poor regions of the world remains. In low-income countries, only 10 percent of the population has received at least one dose. In high- and upper-middle-income countries, 78 percent have received at least one dose.

The potential consequences of the vaccine gap have been underscored by Omicron, which was first identified in southern Africa. Low vaccination coverage creates conditions for widespread virus circulation and with that the possibility of new variants emerging.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the W.H.O., said “It’s dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame. On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge.”

In my opinion, this is where 100% of our efforts, and every wealthy country on earth's efforts, should be at this point.

Yesterday you promised me a 6 month window. How am I supposed to know what to do if you researchers keep changing your minds all the time??

[altasnob]

I wouldn't call it a promise. It's a prediction that very likely will be true. Here's what Neil Ferguson, arguably the top epidemiologist on planet earth, has to say about this:

“I am optimistic that the bulk of the pandemic, in terms of deaths and hospitalisations, is behind us. Though we should still be prepared for some possible bumps on the road,” he said, adding that any new variants – which were highly likely to arise – may have a less dramatic impact than Omicron.

“The very high level of immunity in the UK population – acquired via both vaccination and infection – means that the risk of a new variant causing unmanageable levels of healthcare demand is much reduced,” he said. “An additional positive is that if any new variant arises from Omicron – not a certainty – there is a fair chance it will retain the reduced severity of that strain.”

“Restrictions are always a trade-off between infection control and economic cost,” he said. “However, given that case numbers are in decline in all regions and that hospitalisations are starting to drop, I don’t think lifting restrictions poses a large risk of causing a major resurgence. Though obviously trends will need to continue to be monitored closely.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-neil-ferguson

[Kinnikinnick]

The WHO is still sounding the alarm of the unvaccinated poor countries. From NYTimes today:

Although vaccine shortages are easing, only about 62 percent of the world’s population has received at least one shot, and a striking divide between the rich and poor regions of the world remains. In low-income countries, only 10 percent of the population has received at least one dose. In high- and upper-middle-income countries, 78 percent have received at least one dose.

The potential consequences of the vaccine gap have been underscored by Omicron, which was first identified in southern Africa. Low vaccination coverage creates conditions for widespread virus circulation and with that the possibility of new variants emerging.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the W.H.O., said “It’s dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame. On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge.”

In my opinion, this is where 100% of our efforts, and every wealthy country on earth's efforts, should be at this point.

You said it was over “March 1”




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[altasnob]

You said it was over “March 1”

I said it was over for six months starting March 1. And now that Trevor Bedford explained to me that the US Omicron wave peaked on January 17, that date it is "over" moves forward to mid-February, when new cases will be nearly non-existent. And again, it is for six months. It might be forever, but six months looks very, very, likely.

[Benny Profane]

At least your consistent. Consistently myopic and pessimistic. FWIW, I've been a paid scientist for 23 years, almost all of that time in industry and I've worked with plenty of people who say stupid shit and don't "walk the line." In fact, many of the brightest people I've known didn't "walk the line." How long have you worked in science (academic, industry, etc)?

My point is that the academic industry and private industry are two entirely different worlds of employment, and you should know that.

[hutash]

The WHO is still sounding the alarm of the unvaccinated poor countries. From NYTimes today:

Although vaccine shortages are easing, only about 62 percent of the world’s population has received at least one shot, and a striking divide between the rich and poor regions of the world remains. In low-income countries, only 10 percent of the population has received at least one dose. In high- and upper-middle-income countries, 78 percent have received at least one dose.

The potential consequences of the vaccine gap have been underscored by Omicron, which was first identified in southern Africa. Low vaccination coverage creates conditions for widespread virus circulation and with that the possibility of new variants emerging.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the W.H.O., said “It’s dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame. On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge.”

In my opinion, this is where 100% of our efforts, and every wealthy country on earth's efforts, should be at this point.

...and this is why your cock sure predictions may very well be wrong. I do think it is a reasonable possibility, but am far from convinced. As long as the third world is incubating new variants we could be in for more waves of pandemic, some possibly extremely serious. We just have to wait and see, but in the mean time hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

You sound like Trump, "This will be gone by Easter." This may be the last wave, but many thought that of Delta as well. Time will tell.

[hutash]

My point is that the academic industry and private industry are two entirely different worlds of employment, and you should know that.

Why do you think you are such an expert?

In my field, I am involved with people from both worlds and I think you are wrong regarding the majority (no doubt a few isolated examples can be found to support your opinion.)

[funkendrenchman]

BA.2?

[altasnob]

...and this is why your cock sure predictions may very well be wrong.

You sound like Trump, "This will be gone by Easter."

Read Ferguson's comments above. Very unlikely that a variant that comes from Omicron will cause us problems (I haven't read anyone too concerned with the BA.2 variant above). AD mentioned awhile back that each COVID wave has been associated with a new variant that becomes dominant. I think he is right about this. So in other words, Omicron is old news and not a concern anymore. Also very unlikely that we will see any variant that has such a dramatic effect that Omicron had. Again, Trevor Bedford notes Omicron's spread was unprecedented in recorded history. With Omicron the dominant variant on earth and the world gaining immunity to this, we have time. We should bask and enjoy our Omicron immunity while it lasts. And finally, the vaccines, even just the two dose vaccine without booster, has proven to be effective against severe disease to all variants thrown at it, to date.