Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

Well that aside, they are overpriced 4 yr country clubs of dubious educational merit for many kids. Trump and his nonsense aside, it's probably time they had their day of reckoning. A 1 yr welding or plumbing trade school would be a far better use of most parent's funds.

You're not from around here, are you, son?

[muted]

Mustonen is making a simple point, shut the fuck up guys.

[Benny Profane]

Mass burning of books would be much more cost effective than defunding liberal universities

So is Fauci gone ?

He can't fire Fauci. And Fauci has been around. Six Presidents. He has ten times more political skill than Shithead.

[Benny Profane]

This will be my 26th year. I’m in it for 10 more years....Have to do at least 35 years or be close to 60 to retire in PA/school district. I’ll be too young to retire any less than 10 years.....too much negative penalty to my retirement. (unless I die this fall of Covid)

I like what I do...so I would never walk....but it will be interesting start to the year...lol

Strike!

[BC.]

Strike!

Nope..

[Meadow Skipper]

I didn't read the whole paper but I found the abstract interesting. Sorry if it's a re-post.

Working memory capacity predicts individual differences in social-distancing compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../09/2008868117

Here’s some overview on the nature and importance of working memory capacity (WMC). Good info, it explains a lot to me about dumbasses.

[KQ]

'It's the fear factor.' English pub owner installs electric fence to keep customers at a safe distance

[Bunion 2020]

Are you the guy who voted for his cat in 2016?

I believe that was me. And in her defense she would have done a much better job.

[Casey E]

On opening schools, this case study from early in the pandemic may help understand the implications. The U of Chile finally got peer review for their study of the first school outbreak of Covid19 in Santiago, at a private school (Saint George's), with 1,009 students and 235 teachers/workers getting tested.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...iaa955/5869860

My ignorant takeaway is that it spread fast, and mainly from adults to children, starting about the same week the virus was first confirmed in Chile and the schools opened. The timeline of the school opening, starting with teacher-parent meetings, and subsequent PCR positive cases was:



A total of 52 cases had resulted from the SG´s outbreak including 45 amongst the staff and parents, and only 7 students (all PCR). Many parents had symptoms 6-7 days after teacher-parent meetings. The antibody study began 2 months after the first case. The tests were sent by courier with the results submitted online. They indicated:

* 10% of the students were infected, and 21% of the teachers (17% of total staff)
* The student infection rate varied from 6% in the 4 high school years, to 12% in preschool.
* 40% of students infected were asymptomatic, while 18% of the teachers/staff were.
* It is believed that transmission started in pre-school teachers meetings, and followed in parent-teacher meetings, as the school opened only 9 days before having to close again.

Lots of demographic type detail, including symptoms, are in the study, if you have the time.

[old goat]

Depends on HS....trades are huge here in PA.....those kids have apprentice work while in HS...graduate and do real well here in our area. (We have auto, building, plumbing, electrical). Our auto trades is a national powerhouse in their competitions....those kids get set up with great opportunities.

Trades are definitely pushed in our district..(Wallenpaupack Area SD)...kids get to choose their program/academy.....but I assume that’s not the normal around the country.

I think it was a mistake when they started to put every kid in a college prep curriculum. I was in college prep at a HS in Detroit that had 22 curricula--auto mechanics, aeronautical mechanics, drafting (that one is probably gone), music, there was a large room where they were building a small house. When we added a second story our plumber was a young guy who was working summers as a plumber's helper while he put himself through dental school--decided he liked plumbing better.
Around here the building trades are heavily Latino.

[huckbucket]

Wonder how many small business owners are anti-mask ...

[old goat]

I'm not sure what you mean specifically by "the AC theory," especially since this thread has had a lot of AC speculation at various points. But you got me looking again, and certainly not all AC theories are de-bunked. On the contrary, I'm seeing ASHRAE-published guidelines for HVAC design and CDC and others pointing out the dangers of recirculated air. I'd be at the front of the line to say "indoor air" rather than blaming AC specifically. Obviously that differs from outdoor in ambient UV as well as air currents and recirc, but all of those factor in.

One little graphic from ASHRAE's position paper on infectious aerosols:

Attachment 334567

Long and wonky, but lots of good stuff in there, including references (and evidence) for optimal RH (40-60%) and what comes across as almost pleading for UVC lights (200-280 nm) as an air cleaner (actually shows up twice in the recommendation list, and in this context I put that on the same level of seriousness as the former cop saying "don't talk to cops!")

https://www.ashrae.org/file%20librar...osols_2020.pdf

ETA: wow. I got distracted reading what the experts had to say and missed the whole drift of the thread here. I'm not sure whose point that proves, but I'm curious to find out.

Indoor air I certainly buy--but I think we're talking more about the indoor air in bars and the like. With coronavirus spiking around the country, though, it's spiking in places where people spend more time outdoors in the summer (like here) as well as places where they stay indoors. (I spent a year in Tucson and I spent plenty of time outdoors when I wasn't working all year. The gatherings I went to were outdoors, even in the summer.) And if people are staying indoors specifically for the AC they're generally doing it at home. Sorry, but I'll stick with the idiocy theory. (When this thing first started people were speculating that it would go away in the summer like the flu because people spent more time outdoors.)

The UV-C idea is interesting --I guess it's thought it doesn't cause cancer like A and B do.

Certainly air exchanges with filtration in public indoor spaces--whether it is cooling, heating, or temperature neutral makes good sense.

Not really scientifically relevant but during the polio epidemic of the early 50's it was outdoors, especially swimming pools that people avoided. Not relevant because polio is fecal-oral, not respiratory.

[goldenboy]

Wonder how many small business owners are anti-mask ...

Lots of them. Everyone deserves the freedumb to spew patriot particles unencumbered.

I wish I could claim credit for "patriot particles", but that belongs to Denver news dude Kyle Clark. He's a funny fucker.

[concretejungle]

My place of employment will be going to masks are mandatory tomorrow. Hopefully the city does as well, they decide tomorrow.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[pureantigravity]

If increased testing was the cause of the increasing case numbers and "panic and pandemonium and the impetus to test" the percentage of positive tests would not be increasing. If panicked people at low risk were running out to get tested the percent of positives would go down.

What about hypochondriac early infection statistical dynamics (HEISD*)?


Here's a scenario:

(1) People in high risk jobs and situations do wear masks and distance and not pick noses without washing hands first.

(2) Jobs like in #1 are targeted by testing (we've seen where only testing is for select populations).

(3) There are others, some among #1 and yet more that are just hypochondriac and get tested. But these hypochondriacs are actually already taking precautions, wearing masks, not spending time face to face with anti-maskers, etc. So .. they also have a very low incidence of actual infection even though they present at hospitals with a myriad of symptoms.

As such, with low testing, the infection rates could remain low because the people in #1 are not actually infected since they do take precautions, and the people from #3 are not infected because they are not actually infected very much, so much as very diligent to assuage their longing to have a swap inserted into their deep brain nasal cavity.

That doesn't change the fact that among the non-hypochondriac crowd, and the non-cautions low risk crowd, that the infection rates of asymptomatic people are generally high.

Now, testing is thrown open wide and encourage testing and only the people that 'might think that they could potentially be infected' subject themselves to hospital facial recognition systems and get a giant Q-tip jammed up their schnoz.



With HEISD, what do we find?

(1) We find that every one that isn't taking precautions has got it.
(2) We find that the great majority are asymptomatic.
(3) We find that rates are increasing.
(4) We find that some deaths eventually increase.

If you look at the deaths and cases in Florida, there is a disconnect. It is not 100% clear that even a 3 or 4 week gestation period explains the stats.
Deaths are not increasing as cases increase like one would think.

As for the belief that Floridians are all squeezing the fresh juice and then sucking from the same straw,
that might be the situation in places where the sweltering heat and humidity is a going concern.
And they might be mask wearing ... but it takes a lot more paranoia to wear a mask in 100 degree humidity than it does where cool ocean breezes blow.
I just think we can't dis the south and their collective behavior until the summer is over, the fall is here and everyone has accepted that a real round 2 is among us.


*HEISD (the 's' is silent) facilitating the virus' most dangerous quality known as ...
heisd and seek.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Um... sounds reely awesum. You oughta do a study and post it up on Medrxiv. Or better yet, get a former gameshow host to endorse your conclusions.

[KQ]

Anyone else watch the Betsy Devos interview yesterday? She is a fucking muppet. Just kept repeating the lines she was instructed to say and couldn't give any facts. We are so fucked.

Pressley hits DeVos over reopening schools: 'I wouldn't trust you to care for a house plant let alone my child'

Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) swiped at Education Secretary Betsy DeVos on Sunday after the Trump administration official doubled down on her push for students to return to school.

In a tweet knocking DeVos on Sunday afternoon, the first-term lawmaker directly called her out, writing, “@BetsyDeVosED you have no plan. Teachers, kids and parents are fearing for their lives.”

“You point to a private sector that has put profits over people and claimed the lives of thousands of essential workers. I wouldn’t trust you to care for a house plant let alone my child,” she continued.

[Rideski]

There was a little chatter several days back about kn95, I missed most of it was busy. According to this, seems they are very similar? I thought I heard people in here saying not as good and or questionable construction etc.

https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/...classes-tb.pdf

I bought some cheapy surgical mask with earloop type and they are way better for casual interaction outdoors, easy on easy off etc.

For supermarkets, Home Depot, and working with nasty particulates like concrete I’m still wearing my same n95, but it’s got a few dozen days on it and beat. Shit you not, someone sneezed with no elbow (or hand) over the mouth and no mask at Lowe’s today. Ridiculous.

Anyone test drive some kn’s?
Best deal on amazon? There’s page after page to filter (ha) through.

[Rideski]

And then for good measure an article on aerosols popped into my newsfeed
https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...t-transmission

[splat]

Turns out that asthmatics might not be as susceptible to the worst results as previously thought.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-COVID-19.aspx

[jono]

Indoor air I certainly buy--but I think we're talking more about the indoor air in bars and the like. With coronavirus spiking around the country, though, it's spiking in places where people spend more time outdoors in the summer (like here) as well as places where they stay indoors. (I spent a year in Tucson and I spent plenty of time outdoors when I wasn't working all year. The gatherings I went to were outdoors, even in the summer.) And if people are staying indoors specifically for the AC they're generally doing it at home. Sorry, but I'll stick with the idiocy theory. (When this thing first started people were speculating that it would go away in the summer like the flu because people spent more time outdoors.)

The UV-C idea is interesting --I guess it's thought it doesn't cause cancer like A and B do.

Certainly air exchanges with filtration in public indoor spaces--whether it is cooling, heating, or temperature neutral makes good sense.

Not really scientifically relevant but during the polio epidemic of the early 50's it was outdoors, especially swimming pools that people avoided. Not relevant because polio is fecal-oral, not respiratory.

Oh, so you're thinking the AC theory is that Arizonans actually aren't idiots? I've only ever spent a few weeks there, but I can't take the other side of that bet. I was just thinking AC-season compounds it. But given the timing of the surge some future decrease in stupidity would easily eclipse all other factors. If it happens. (ASHRAE does cite the study that showed increased infectiousness due to reduced function of mucus membranes in low humidity, though, so I'm feeling pretty smug about that. Also since that's my favorite feature of masks.)

As I understand it, UVC is mostly only going to penetrate the eyes, so maybe some polycarbonate lenses. But for many settings you don't actually have to let it hit you directly anyway, just shine it on the ceiling or park it in a duct etc if going for passive. Also encouraging that they list UVC as having the highest level of evidence, even if it's mostly thanks to TB studies. I think I'm going to dig in and figure out which one to buy for my wife; Amazon pricing looks cheaper than liability. I guess if she gets a tan we'll make a shade for it (or switch her to a polycarbonate face shield).

[jono]

Anyone test drive some kn’s?
Best deal on amazon? There’s page after page to filter (ha) through.

My wife was using those for a month or two and I dug in to that same 3M statement and a couple other things. Seems like they're basically equivalent on paper, unless they gap. So whether they fit and/or hold up as well is a bigger deal and individual, of course. Some liked them better, she found them to be a little less durable than some others, but better than a 3M that's poorly fitted. Gotta try to know. Still on disposables in July. Ridiculous.

[Rideski]

Noted thanks.
And yeah how we haven’t put 3m in wartime footing I don’t know.

[old goat]

What about hypochondriac early infection statistical dynamics (HEISD*)?


Here's a scenario:

(1) People in high risk jobs and situations do wear masks and distance and not pick noses without washing hands first.

(2) Jobs like in #1 are targeted by testing (we've seen where only testing is for select populations).

(3) There are others, some among #1 and yet more that are just hypochondriac and get tested. But these hypochondriacs are actually already taking precautions, wearing masks, not spending time face to face with anti-maskers, etc. So .. they also have a very low incidence of actual infection even though they present at hospitals with a myriad of symptoms.

As such, with low testing, the infection rates could remain low because the people in #1 are not actually infected since they do take precautions, and the people from #3 are not infected because they are not actually infected very much, so much as very diligent to assuage their longing to have a swap inserted into their deep brain nasal cavity.

That doesn't change the fact that among the non-hypochondriac crowd, and the non-cautions low risk crowd, that the infection rates of asymptomatic people are generally high.

Now, testing is thrown open wide and encourage testing and only the people that 'might think that they could potentially be infected' subject themselves to hospital facial recognition systems and get a giant Q-tip jammed up their schnoz.



With HEISD, what do we find?

(1) We find that every one that isn't taking precautions has got it.
(2) We find that the great majority are asymptomatic.
(3) We find that rates are increasing.
(4) We find that some deaths eventually increase.

If you look at the deaths and cases in Florida, there is a disconnect. It is not 100% clear that even a 3 or 4 week gestation period explains the stats.
Deaths are not increasing as cases increase like one would think.

As for the belief that Floridians are all squeezing the fresh juice and then sucking from the same straw,
that might be the situation in places where the sweltering heat and humidity is a going concern.
And they might be mask wearing ... but it takes a lot more paranoia to wear a mask in 100 degree humidity than it does where cool ocean breezes blow.
I just think we can't dis the south and their collective behavior until the summer is over, the fall is here and everyone has accepted that a real round 2 is among us.


*HEISD (the 's' is silent) facilitating the virus' most dangerous quality known as ...
heisd and seek.

Apply Occam's razor. More people testing positive for coronavirus means more people have cornonavirus. QED

[pureantigravity]

Apply Occam's razor. More people testing positive for coronavirus means more people have cornonavirus. QED

Occam's Razor doesn't work well in biology, or statistics.
If you said "We have a good history of data from randomized testing in the general population,
and now more are testing positive" ..
then sure, more people have it.
Does Florida do properly administered randomized testing?


Miami-Dade County and the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine announce initial findings
https://www.miamidade.gov/releases/2...ng-results.asp

So ... the levels of infection were already well established before the increases in actual voluntary testing.
Hence ... there was always a shitload of infections. It is just that now we have that shitload showing up in the general testing results.