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10-20-2020, 11:15 AM #28576Registered User
- Join Date
- Mar 2008
- Location
- northern BC
- Posts
- 30,879
if no body had done anything i wonder what the death tolls would be world wide ?
I got the flu shot yesturday, one of the first in townLee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know
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10-20-2020, 11:31 AM #28577
Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey
Where does it say it became less deadly?
We have influenza outbreaks every year, we have vaccines that work and/or mitigate the effects of illness along with better therapeutic treatment and things like isolating coughs and hand washing. People still get seasonal influenza and require hospitalization and some die.
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10-20-2020, 11:56 AM #28578AF
- Join Date
- Jul 2008
- Location
- Sandy by the front
- Posts
- 2,345
Here are US influenza deaths for the past nine flu seasons.
2010-2011 37,000
2011-2012 12,000
2012-2013 43,000
2013-2014 38,000
2014-2015 51,000
2015-2016 23,000
2016-2017 38,000
2017 -2018 61,000
2018-2019 34,157
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10-20-2020, 11:56 AM #28579
Not an immunologist, but the definition of herd immunity is not simply R0<1. Herd immunity only refers to a sufficient percentage of individuals becoming immune to a virus through vaccination or previous infection. SARS was not contained through herd immunity, neither are Ebola outbreaks.
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10-20-2020, 12:15 PM #28580
Obviously that's not the whole definition of herd immunity, but if R0>1 you have exponential growth, aka not herd immunity. It's been illustrated in several articles discussed here in the past that the level of personal immunity in a population required to achieve R0<1 varies depending on numerous factors. In an extremely cautious/low contact society COVID might achieve herd immunity with as little as 20% infection rates for Americans to achieve that while changing nothing about our lifestyles (ha) we would need ~70%.
R0<1 means outbreaks die out. So it certainly feels like cheating to call all cases of R0<1 "herd immunity" but in the case of this disease I think that definition serves the discussion better, since we're definitely not talking about a disease with zero immunity in the population. If we could simply start from that common understanding I think the discussion would be less speculative.
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10-20-2020, 12:15 PM #28581
FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission
https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...h.guml01vbysm4
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10-20-2020, 01:11 PM #28582
So apparently the first lady didn't rank high enough to get the same treatment of her husband and Chris Christie.
Melania Trump cancels plans to attend Tuesday rally citing Covid recovery
(CNN)Melania Trump is canceling her first campaign appearance in months because she is not feeling well as she continues to recover from Covid-19.
She had been set to join President Donald Trump's rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, but she has decided not to go.
"Mrs. Trump continues to feel better every day following her recovery from Covid-19, but with a lingering cough, and out of an abundance of caution, she will not be traveling today," said Stephanie Grisham, the first lady's chief of staff.“When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis
Kindness is a bridge between all people
Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism
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10-20-2020, 01:17 PM #28583
I know that's the standard explanation for what happened with SARS--that it disappeared because of epidemiological measures. I wonder if there isn't a virological explanation--but I'm neither a virologist nor and epidemiologist so pure unfounded speculation on my part. There is one known biologic difference that I know of--much longer period of asymptomatic spread for SARS-CoV-2. (Does SARS have any significant asymptomatic spread?)
SARS-CoV-2 seems to have hit the sweet spot for an epidemic. If it were as deadly as SARS everyone would understand the need for strict control measures. If it were no more deadly than the flu we could go about our lives with an acceptable mortality, especially if, like the flu, it didn't have long term sequelae. But it's rate of spread and mortality are such that effective control measures are too draconian while going about our lives is too deadly.
Almost seems like it was designed . . . I'd better stop before I go down the conspiracy theory rat hole.Last edited by old goat; 10-20-2020 at 05:52 PM.
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10-20-2020, 02:18 PM #28584
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10-20-2020, 02:24 PM #28585
North Dakota
Please be advised: NDDoH and local public health units are currently experiencing a backlog of COVID-19 case investigations, causing a delay in calls. If you have tested positive for COVID-19, please isolate and inform any close contacts you've had that they should get tested!
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10-20-2020, 02:26 PM #28586Banned
- Join Date
- Sep 2020
- Posts
- 626
Oh! You're right! I was looking at August numbers, not September numbers.
Congratulations! Nashville is now #1.
It has had 29,000 cases since the start of the epidemic, out of a population of 695,000. Giving it a rate of 41.8 confirmed cases per 1,000 residents. El Paso is the next closest at 33.9.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...or-u-s-cities/
With Portland, San Francisco and Seattle all landing in #27-#31 range, it would seem that low cases numbers correlate strongly with being an anarchist jurisdiction. (NYC is #11 but it could be argued that their early case numbers in March/April skew the data).
Also: Memphis is #3, not far behind Nashville. TN sucks with the exception of Derrick Henry.
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10-20-2020, 02:30 PM #28587
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10-20-2020, 02:32 PM #28588
San Francisco on Tuesday became the first major jurisdiction in California to advance into the state’s least-restrictive yellow reopening tier in one of a series of updates from Dr. Mark Ghaly, a top state health official.
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10-20-2020, 04:05 PM #28589
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10-20-2020, 04:17 PM #28590
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10-20-2020, 04:44 PM #28591
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10-20-2020, 06:11 PM #28592
X
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10-20-2020, 09:28 PM #28593Banned
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- Sep 2020
- Posts
- 626
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10-20-2020, 09:54 PM #28594
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10-20-2020, 10:51 PM #28595
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10-20-2020, 11:14 PM #28596
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10-20-2020, 11:20 PM #28597glocal
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- May 2002
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- 33,440
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10-20-2020, 11:21 PM #28598
I don’t live in the South and don’t have family there. But I know people that live there and I probably like them more than you.
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10-20-2020, 11:22 PM #28599Banned
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- Sep 2020
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- 626
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10-20-2020, 11:26 PM #28600
"… we’re rounding the turn of the pandemic. 56%, and it’s a record. Epic job growth, safe vaccines that quickly end the pandemic. It’s ending. Normal life, that’s all we want. You know what we want? Normal life. Normal life will finally resume and next year will be the greatest economic year in the history of our country."
Turns out the pandemic is ending? I'm guessing it's because we have safe vaccines?
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