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  1. #28576
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    Mar 2008
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    northern BC
    Posts
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    if no body had done anything i wonder what the death tolls would be world wide ?

    I got the flu shot yesturday, one of the first in town
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  2. #28577
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Wenatchee
    Posts
    14,601

    Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Swine flu H1N1 became less deadly over time, correct? From the cdc:

    "(H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year."
    Where does it say it became less deadly?

    We have influenza outbreaks every year, we have vaccines that work and/or mitigate the effects of illness along with better therapeutic treatment and things like isolating coughs and hand washing. People still get seasonal influenza and require hospitalization and some die.

    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  3. #28578
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Sandy by the front
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    2,345
    Here are US influenza deaths for the past nine flu seasons.

    2010-2011 37,000
    2011-2012 12,000
    2012-2013 43,000
    2013-2014 38,000
    2014-2015 51,000
    2015-2016 23,000
    2016-2017 38,000
    2017 -2018 61,000
    2018-2019 34,157

  4. #28579
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    slc
    Posts
    17,889
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Isn't it? If R0 falls below 1 and the disease dies out then for that herd at that time the level of immunity was adequate. The point being, R0 changes based on many factors and the idiots keep acting like individual immunity is the only one that matters when in reality it might be the least important. It certainly should be the least important, because of all the factors it's the one that comes with the biggest downsides.

    At the extreme, of course, a disease with a miniscule spread might actually have nothing whatsoever to do with individual immunity numbers, but even SARS probably wasn't that small. In the context of COVID-19 individual immunity will obviously play some role, so herd immunity can be defined as R0<1. Given that, any covidiot that thinks herd immunity is best achieved by maximizing R0 has already spent too much time practicing doublethink.
    Not an immunologist, but the definition of herd immunity is not simply R0<1. Herd immunity only refers to a sufficient percentage of individuals becoming immune to a virus through vaccination or previous infection. SARS was not contained through herd immunity, neither are Ebola outbreaks.

  5. #28580
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    8,318
    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    Not an immunologist, but the definition of herd immunity is not simply R0<1. Herd immunity only refers to a sufficient percentage of individuals becoming immune to a virus through vaccination or previous infection. SARS was not contained through herd immunity, neither are Ebola outbreaks.
    Obviously that's not the whole definition of herd immunity, but if R0>1 you have exponential growth, aka not herd immunity. It's been illustrated in several articles discussed here in the past that the level of personal immunity in a population required to achieve R0<1 varies depending on numerous factors. In an extremely cautious/low contact society COVID might achieve herd immunity with as little as 20% infection rates for Americans to achieve that while changing nothing about our lifestyles (ha) we would need ~70%.

    R0<1 means outbreaks die out. So it certainly feels like cheating to call all cases of R0<1 "herd immunity" but in the case of this disease I think that definition serves the discussion better, since we're definitely not talking about a disease with zero immunity in the population. If we could simply start from that common understanding I think the discussion would be less speculative.

  6. #28581
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    8,963
    FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...h.guml01vbysm4

  7. #28582
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    EWA
    Posts
    22,004
    So apparently the first lady didn't rank high enough to get the same treatment of her husband and Chris Christie.

    Melania Trump cancels plans to attend Tuesday rally citing Covid recovery

    (CNN)Melania Trump is canceling her first campaign appearance in months because she is not feeling well as she continues to recover from Covid-19.

    She had been set to join President Donald Trump's rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, but she has decided not to go.

    "Mrs. Trump continues to feel better every day following her recovery from Covid-19, but with a lingering cough, and out of an abundance of caution, she will not be traveling today," s
    aid Stephanie Grisham, the first lady's chief of staff.
    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  8. #28583
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    truckee
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    It's been stated many times that herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine, but unfortunately there's a qualifier that gets left off: it's never happened once a disease was endemic. Diseases with minimal spread can die out very easily. R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.
    I know that's the standard explanation for what happened with SARS--that it disappeared because of epidemiological measures. I wonder if there isn't a virological explanation--but I'm neither a virologist nor and epidemiologist so pure unfounded speculation on my part. There is one known biologic difference that I know of--much longer period of asymptomatic spread for SARS-CoV-2. (Does SARS have any significant asymptomatic spread?)

    SARS-CoV-2 seems to have hit the sweet spot for an epidemic. If it were as deadly as SARS everyone would understand the need for strict control measures. If it were no more deadly than the flu we could go about our lives with an acceptable mortality, especially if, like the flu, it didn't have long term sequelae. But it's rate of spread and mortality are such that effective control measures are too draconian while going about our lives is too deadly.

    Almost seems like it was designed . . . I'd better stop before I go down the conspiracy theory rat hole.
    Last edited by old goat; 10-20-2020 at 05:52 PM.

  9. #28584
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    funland
    Posts
    5,250
    ^^^^ you might have heard of the ideas Charles Darwin and the next seven generations of his colleagues have been working on?


    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...h.guml01vbysm4
    THIS IS AWESOME. The perfect amount of technical for a nerd that is not a physicist or doctor.

  10. #28585
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,810
    North Dakota

    Please be advised: NDDoH and local public health units are currently experiencing a backlog of COVID-19 case investigations, causing a delay in calls. If you have tested positive for COVID-19, please isolate and inform any close contacts you've had that they should get tested!

  11. #28586
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    626
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Mike View Post
    Source for that statistic? Asking because it is inaccurate.
    Oh! You're right! I was looking at August numbers, not September numbers.
    Congratulations! Nashville is now #1.
    It has had 29,000 cases since the start of the epidemic, out of a population of 695,000. Giving it a rate of 41.8 confirmed cases per 1,000 residents. El Paso is the next closest at 33.9.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...or-u-s-cities/

    With Portland, San Francisco and Seattle all landing in #27-#31 range, it would seem that low cases numbers correlate strongly with being an anarchist jurisdiction. (NYC is #11 but it could be argued that their early case numbers in March/April skew the data).

    Also: Memphis is #3, not far behind Nashville. TN sucks with the exception of Derrick Henry.

  12. #28587
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    Jan 2019
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    59715
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    So apparently the first lady didn't rank high enough to get the same treatment of her husband and Chris Christie.
    Wasn't in her contract.

  13. #28588
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,810
    San Francisco on Tuesday became the first major jurisdiction in California to advance into the state’s least-restrictive yellow reopening tier in one of a series of updates from Dr. Mark Ghaly, a top state health official.

  14. #28589
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,145
    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...h.guml01vbysm4
    Thank you for posting this. Everyone should take 5 minutes of their internet time to look at this.

  15. #28590
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the swamp
    Posts
    11,124

    Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

    Quote Originally Posted by mfcf13 View Post
    Oh! You're right! I was looking at August numbers, not September numbers.
    Congratulations! Nashville is now #1.
    It has had 29,000 cases since the start of the epidemic, out of a population of 695,000. Giving it a rate of 41.8 confirmed cases per 1,000 residents. El Paso is the next closest at 33.9.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...or-u-s-cities/

    With Portland, San Francisco and Seattle all landing in #27-#31 range, it would seem that low cases numbers correlate strongly with being an anarchist jurisdiction. (NYC is #11 but it could be argued that their early case numbers in March/April skew the data).

    Also: Memphis is #3, not far behind Nashville. TN sucks with the exception of Derrick Henry.
    Amazing because my friend has posted a number of times recently at packed music bars in Nashville with no masks or distancing at all. Just stick head in sand.

  16. #28591
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
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    23,111
    Quote Originally Posted by Lone Star View Post
    ^^^^ you might have heard of the ideas Charles Darwin and the next seven generations of his colleagues have been working on?



    I've heard of Darwin. What's your point?

  17. #28592
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    X

  18. #28593
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    626
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    X
    So the two regions with the highest obesity rates, the most republican politicians and the weakest economies are also the two regions that are most likely to become leper colonies in coming months?

  19. #28594
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Tetons
    Posts
    6,384
    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...h.guml01vbysm4
    Thanks for posting this. Good info without a lot of news bullshit attached.

  20. #28595
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,388
    Quote Originally Posted by mfcf13 View Post
    So the two regions with the highest obesity rates, the most republican politicians and the weakest economies are also the two regions that are most likely to become leper colonies in coming months?
    As I’ve said before, there’s good people all over this country and all over the globe, so you're probably a selfish piece of shit.

  21. #28596
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    PNW
    Posts
    7,364
    Quote Originally Posted by Rideski View Post
    As I’ve said before, there’s good people all over this country and all over the globe, so you're probably a selfish piece of shit.
    So it's more of a confederacy thing that the south is doing so poorly containing SARS-CoV-2? Or is it the Republican Governors?

  22. #28597
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Posts
    33,440
    Quote Originally Posted by mfcf13 View Post
    So the two regions with the highest obesity rates, the most republican politicians and the weakest economies are also the two regions that are most likely to become leper colonies in coming months?
    Who will be cast as Father Damian?
    Fauci?

  23. #28598
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,388
    I don’t live in the South and don’t have family there. But I know people that live there and I probably like them more than you.

  24. #28599
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    626
    Quote Originally Posted by Rideski View Post
    As I’ve said before, there’s good people all over this country and all over the globe, so you're probably a selfish piece of shit.
    Actually, I feel really bad for the good people in those two regions. The good people in the south/midwest are negatively affected by the majority of the people around them; those who dismiss the effectiveness of masks and vote for shitty politicians.

  25. #28600
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    11,145
    "… we’re rounding the turn of the pandemic. 56%, and it’s a record. Epic job growth, safe vaccines that quickly end the pandemic. It’s ending. Normal life, that’s all we want. You know what we want? Normal life. Normal life will finally resume and next year will be the greatest economic year in the history of our country."

    Turns out the pandemic is ending? I'm guessing it's because we have safe vaccines?

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