Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

**MagnificentUnicorn** · 01-25-2022, 09:42 AM

The ICUs aren’t full like this past fall, the Covid patients on ventilators are unvaccinated though.

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**Benny Profane** · 01-25-2022, 09:48 AM

Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn

Some real world observations. Over the weekend nearly all hospital admissions through the ED were Covid positive regardless of what they showed up for. We’ve got a fair number of hospitalizations that are for Covid and in isolation, around 25. We’ve got 4 in the ICU and they are intubated and unvaccinated. Ages are all over the place. We’ve started adjudication of elective surgeries again because we have no beds. This isn’t entirely Covid related but staffing and taking transfers from other hospitals plays into it. We’ve now got a rolling Covid roll call. Everyone is getting it and it’s 10 days out of work. We’re running low on PCR tests so staff and elective patients are limited to antigen testing. I’m not really seeing the utility of testing at this point, we should just assume everyone has had it, has it or will get it soon. Good luck everyone!

I’m not anti vaccination and agree with a lot of what Benny is posting. The claims of rampant and widespread fraud about Covid deaths and treatment are laughable though. As it stands the pandemic seems over for Americans. I wouldn’t boldly claim that it’s the end of Covid. The pandemic is over because people don’t care and omicron seems relatively harmless. I’m not betting that there won’t be another more dangerous variant though, I’m hopeful though.

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I exaggerate when I say it's over. It will never be over in our lifetimes. But it's becoming endemic. We're out of the real killing phase. Fuck, we still live with strains of the 1918 flu. But, we live in a wonderful world of quickly developed vaccines, that will save millions.

**SumJongGuy** · 01-25-2022, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I exaggerate when I say it's over. It will never be over in our lifetimes. But it's becoming endemic. We're out of the real killing phase. Fuck, we still live with strains of the 1918 flu. But, we live in a wonderful world of quickly developed vaccines, that will save millions.

When it's only killing as many people or less than the seasonal flu it will then be "endemic".. but right now we're at least 10X beyond that level of safety and healthcare system ability to manage things. Get your jabs, keep your mask on in public, and we'll get there. Keep whining about it without doing those things and it will take a LOT longer to get there..

**Benny Profane** · 01-25-2022, 09:52 AM

We'll be there by the summer.

**The AD** · 01-25-2022, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

When it's only killing as many people or less than the seasonal flu it will then be "endemic".. but right now we're at least 10X beyond that level of safety and healthcare system ability to manage things. Get your jabs, keep your mask on in public, and we'll get there. Keep whining about it without doing those things and it will take a LOT longer to get there..

Agreed. I'm hoping that omicron takes us into another phase, but at this point it's wishful thinking. Currently more people than ever are hospitalized and deaths are at 2,000 per day and continuing to climb. Until both those metrics drop significantly and stay that way for months I wouldn't want to say we're out of the woods.

**Adolf Allerbush** · 01-25-2022, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by old goat

The number we are not seeing--or at least I can't find it--is how many of those 2000 deaths per day are vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Lots of anecdotal reports that the ICU's are full of unvaccinated people but no hard national numbers. Here's a conspiracy theory I could believe--that the CDC doesn't want people to know that vaccinated people are dying, because that might discourage some people from getting vaccinated. More likely the data is just not available in the reports from the states.

I saw on the local news, a Sinclair station so grain of salt, that the number of vaccinated in the ICU was almost the same as the number of unvaccinated here in the Portland area. Now, there are a lot of vaccinated folks here so it goes to reason that as most (80% ish) are vaccinated, regardless of the reason, most in the ICU will too be vaccinated. I don't know about on vents tho.

I would like to see vaccinated person who had covid died of XYZ reason...meaning, I'm assuming most of the deaths would happen regardless of their vaccination status, like they died of cancer but were also COVID positive, things like that. Is our way of tracking deaths that nuanced?

**old goat** · 01-25-2022, 09:56 AM

The pandemic will be officially over when Benny can go ski in Italy. Walensky announced it in her news conference this morning.

**SumJongGuy** · 01-25-2022, 10:08 AM

Originally Posted by Adolf Allerbush

I saw on the local news, a Sinclair station so grain of salt, that the number of vaccinated in the ICU was almost the same as the number of unvaccinated here in the Portland area. Now, there are a lot of vaccinated folks here so it goes to reason that as most (80% ish) are vaccinated, regardless of the reason, most in the ICU will too be vaccinated. I don't know about on vents tho.?

Ya it's meaningless without the REASON the vaxxed and unvaxxed are there in the hospital for.. The ERs have always been full of people before the pandemic. Betting the vast majority of vaxxed are there for non COVID trauma. People are also intubated for a variety of different reasons. What's the % of vaxxed on the vent because of COVID complications? Lies, damned lies, and statistics...

**Kinnikinnick** · 01-25-2022, 10:10 AM

Originally Posted by Adolf Allerbush

I saw on the local news, a Sinclair station so grain of salt, that the number of vaccinated in the ICU was almost the same as the number of unvaccinated here in the Portland area. Now, there are a lot of vaccinated folks here so it goes to reason that as most (80% ish) are vaccinated, regardless of the reason, most in the ICU will too be vaccinated. I don't know about on vents tho.

I would like to see vaccinated person who had covid died of XYZ reason...meaning, I'm assuming most of the deaths would happen regardless of their vaccination status, like they died of cancer but were also COVID positive, things like that. Is our way of tracking deaths that nuanced?

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/D...ase-Report.pdf

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**Benny Profane** · 01-25-2022, 10:42 AM

Originally Posted by old goat

The pandemic will be officially over when Benny can go ski in Italy. Walensky announced it in her news conference this morning.

Funny. That's actually a milestone for me. Next season.

**Benny Profane** · 01-25-2022, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by Kinnikinnick

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/D...ase-Report.pdf

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"Cases of COVID-19 are much more common in unvaccinated4 individuals than in vaccinated individuals (Figure 1). The rate of COVID-19 cases among unvaccinated individuals in the most recent week was nearly 8 times the rate of COVID-19 cases among those who are fully vaccinated. Community spread is extreme throughout the state. As COVID-19 cases have increased across Oregon, vaccine breakthrough cases have also increased, but at a much lower rate than in the unvaccinated. Vaccination, including boosting, remains the most effective tool to reduce the spread of COVID-19."

And, over and over, I fail to read details on severity of illness. A sniffle and a cough? Hospital admission?

Plus, comorbidities, please.

**old goat** · 01-25-2022, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by Kinnikinnick

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/D...ase-Report.pdf

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That's the kind of info I've been looking for. Thanks.
In my age group 2% risk of death from a breakthrough case. Not a huge risk but not trivial. The same as the risk of my open heart surgery.
Another interesting bit from the report is how much lower the case rate is among the vaccinated. It's not just that the vaccinated don't die from covid as often as the unvaccinated; they don't catch covid nearly as often. This is from a time period where omicron was the great majority of cases. So the vaccines do protect against infection, although not as well as for earlier variants.

And AA--as I said before if a death is reported as due to covid it was due to covid. A death from another cause in someone who had tested positive for covid would not be reported as a covid death, although it would be reported as a covid case. A covid case is anyone who tests positive. A covid hospitalization or death is a case where covid was the reason for it.

And this was discussed a while back--the typical death certificate for someone dying of covid might read "acute respiratory failure, due to viral pneumonia, due to covid 19", with each of those diagnoses being on a separate line. The deniers would look at the top line and say "see, they didn't die of covid--they died of respiratory failure" and ignore the other two lines. Typically in a death certificate it's the third line that tells you the underlying cause of death.

And one more thing--if the only thing getting vaxed and wearing a mask to shop does for me is keep me from losing a week of the ski season, it's worth it.
I don't have that many more ski seasons left.

**jono** · 01-25-2022, 11:07 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

"

And, over and over, I fail to read details.

Let's just keep it concise, shall we?

**altasnob** · 01-25-2022, 11:24 AM

Originally Posted by old goat

A covid hospitalization or death is a case where covid was the reason for it.

In regards to hospitalizations of children due to COVID, the NYTimes seems to disagree with you:

"Also complicating the picture: Alarming hospitalization figures can be misleading because they sometimes include all children who have tested positive for the coronavirus upon admission."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/h...lizations.html

**Benny Profane** · 01-25-2022, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by jono

Let's just keep it concise, shall we?

Fine. Focus. Facts. Who's sick, and how sick? How old are they? What other pre existing conditions contribute? Fat? Diabetic? Cancer? Not this generalized, "everybody hide!" Shit. Or maybe pay attention to the inequality of treatment, too. The kids at Princeton are triple vaxxed and restricted in movement, when the chance of 99% of them getting sick is super low, while ghetto kids are getting tossed in the trash, as usual.

**mcphee** · 01-25-2022, 11:30 AM

Maybe give your podcasts another listen. Jot down the names of the experts. Look up their own published works and the sources they’ve cited to reach their conclusions. In other words, do your own fucking research. Dipshit.

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**mcphee** · 01-25-2022, 11:31 AM

.

**The AD** · 01-25-2022, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

The kids at Princeton are triple vaxxed and restricted in movement, when the chance of 99% of them getting sick is super low

Yes, their risk is low, but their risk of infecting others is at least as high as older people's. That's the point. The #1 response has to be putting in measure to limit the spread of the virus, not gauge how likely an individual is to get sick.

**altasnob** · 01-25-2022, 11:45 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

We'll be there by the summer.

I don't know if COVID is done for good because of possible new variants, but I think it is safe to say by March 1st, COVID will be done in the US (for at least the next six months). UK's 14 day rate of new cases is -46% right now. Omicron will go away as fast as it came. So if you have been waiting for the last two years to do anything, you have your six month window to do it starting in March, maybe even mid-February.

**Kinnikinnick** · 01-25-2022, 11:51 AM

Originally Posted by altasnob

I don't know if COVID is done for good because of possible new variants, but I think it is safe to say by March 1st, COVID will be done in the US (for at least the next six months). UK's 14 day rate of new cases is -46% right now. Omicron will go away as fast as it came. So if you have been waiting for the last two years to do anything, you have your six month window to do it starting in March, maybe even mid-February.

Listen to a lawyer for medical advice?

LOL!!!

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**schuss** · 01-25-2022, 11:55 AM

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

Ya it's meaningless without the REASON the vaxxed and unvaxxed are there in the hospital for.. The ERs have always been full of people before the pandemic. Betting the vast majority of vaxxed are there for non COVID trauma. People are also intubated for a variety of different reasons. What's the % of vaxxed on the vent because of COVID complications? Lies, damned lies, and statistics...

Not to mention total population of vaxxed and unvaxxed, as even on the surface it seems to be 4X worse for unvaccinated folks.

**altasnob** · 01-25-2022, 11:59 AM

Originally Posted by Kinnikinnick

Listen to a lawyer for medical advice?

Point me to anything, I mean ANYTHING, that says my take is wrong.

The reason the UK has declared COVID over* isn't just because BoJo wants a diversion. Everyone there either is vaccinated or has immunity through natural infection. The US lags the UK because we have a lower vaccination rate, less of our population has been naturally infected with COVID, and we were hit by Omicron after the UK. But all of that just means we will lag UK by a few weeks.

*no one can declare COVID over for good because of unknown variants but it is safe to say society will have widespread immunity for at least the next six months.

**mcphee** · 01-25-2022, 12:01 PM

Originally Posted by altasnob

Point me to anything, I mean ANYTHING, that says my take is wrong.

You really are Benny’s son.

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**rod9301** · 01-25-2022, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by altasnob

Point me to anything, I mean ANYTHING, that says my take is wrong.

The reason the UK has declared COVID over* isn't just because BoJo wants a diversion. Everyone there either is vaccinated or has immunity through natural infection. The US lags the UK because we have a lower vaccination rate, less of our population has been naturally infected with COVID, and we were hit by Omicron after the UK. But all of that just means we will lag UK by a few weeks.

*no one can declare COVID over for good because of unknown variants but it is safe to say society will have widespread immunity for at least the next six months.

Yeah, uk is trending down.

Butt how about France and Germany?

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**altasnob** · 01-25-2022, 12:09 PM

Originally Posted by rod9301

Yeah, uk is trending down.

Butt how about France and Germany?

Omicron hit UK first of all nations on earth outside of Africa. So France and Germany are more like the US (lagging a bit). Wait three weeks and you will see the same phenomenon there.

The place in the US that was first hit by Omicron and most closely mirrors the situation in the UK in real time today? NYC. And cases are plummeting there.