Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Skidog]

The optics of something I didn't know was happening until earlier today. Unlike the optics of indoor events that Trump did repeatedly (and were already inappropriate anyway). Or Sturgis, drawing 3/4 of a million people into a shitty town to fill crappy bars during a pandemic. I really better start watching more fox news so I know what to be outraged about.

I read the article on CNN. Do you actually read any "mainstream" media? This is "THE" vineyard event of likely the century. There will be lots of kissing and hugging and elbow rubbing. As mentioned, the party optics on this just don't look good. I could care less, I had kid parties at the "height" of the pandemic. Not 700ppl but.....



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[LongShortLong]

I just don't understand how people still think it's as simple as people misbehave -> cases go up, people follow the rules -> cases go down. We have seen these surges in cases followed by abrupt falls regardless of any interventions all over the world. It is entirely predictable. The same thing will happen in the US in a few weeks.

Virology 101? A respiratory virus requires people to help it spread. If the people choose not to help, it goes away. Doesn't necessarily have anything to do with rules. Although if we create and follow rules that lead to people not spreading the virus, then it doesn't spread. In that sense having rules helps. Most people see the hospitals fill then change behavior regardless of rules. Weak government driven interventions, as in the US, likely have a small but useful additional effect.

So, Florida as an example occurring right now, I expect to see cases level off and fall in Florida, even though their governor's policies seem to encourage spread. Maybe as soon as this week, surely no later than mid-Aug. A different governor may have taken action a few weeks ago. Regardless, exponential growth means by the time leadership acts, Covid's growth drives the public behavior shift in a week or two anyway.

[ex-powderbroker]

I read the article on CNN. Do you actually read any "mainstream" media? This is "THE" vineyard event of likely the century. There will be lots of kissing and hugging and elbow rubbing. As mentioned, the party optics on this just don't look good. I could care less, I had kid parties at the "height" of the pandemic. Not 700ppl but.....

npr, wsj, nytimes, cbc. i'd say i missed it but there is nothing about it on any of them. is obama's birthday party news or is it newsitainment/gossip/culture war crap? idk. I can't name any "vineyard events", never been there, don't care. it's an island full of red sox fans? meh

[MontuckyFried]

Morons like mounthucky want to open up unless a liberal does it. Your sick dude.

I really better start watching more fox news so I know what to be outraged about.

Who here is "outraged"? Or is about opening up "unless a liberal does it"? I have literally said in my posts about the Obama bash that he deserves it and should totally party. You idiots really take that as being "outraged"? I was mocking guys like YOU. Not Obama. Mocking those who selectively pick and choose what is and isn't a "super spreader event."

Heck. We've seen "studies" published that have said that last years BLM protests actually caused a DECREASE in COVID cases. FFS. Some of you idiots guzzle that drivel right up and determine what is morally right and wrong in regard to COVID. Want US to lock down for eternity and not even be able to visit our friends or family dying in a hospital, but a kick ass Obama party with like 700 people? Pssshhhh. No biggie, right?

Again. I'm totally down with the party. Sounds fun. Just wish some of you could be a bit more consistent with your positions on the matter.

EDIT: Wooley, it's "YOU'RE". Not "your."

[ex-powderbroker]

Sturgis was estimated to cause 250k covid cases. costing how much? please remind me.

[old_newguy]

Oh, now I get that when Montucky was describing REEE he was actually talking about the noise his faux “I’m so outraged about your lack of outrage!” posts make in our brains when we try to read them.

[LongShortLong]

The slides say at current incidence there's an 8-fold reduction in vaxxed vs unvaxxed. Also MA estimates put the crowd at >90% (Ptown 95%, crowd 97%) vaccinated. So when CDC says 74% of cases were vaxxed that's consistent with >80% efficacy against infection with a quick back of the envelope conditional probability of infection for each group.

Indeed. I don't fully trust the CDC to get the right data or draw the right conclusions. Or maybe they do, but the PR people mutilate before it becomes public. So I like to see the data and run some rough checks. Anyway, I crunched some San Diego County (CA) data and came up with 93% efficacy vs infection for 30-49yo, and 97% against hospitalization. Put differently, I see a 13-fold reduction in infection, so I support CDC's 8-fold finding in an environment where people partied hard for 2 weeks straight, giving Covid every chance.

Certainly there could be problems with the data or my interpretation, but the vaccines should work quite well to limit spread, morbidity, and mortality and data supports this.

[MontuckyFried]

I could care less, I had kid parties at the "height" of the pandemic. Not 700ppl but.....

Lemme guess. You must've been trying to kill grandma.

I remember a ton of people here being like "WhY WoN'T YoU ALL StAy ThE FuCK aT HoME?!!! AAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!"

[frorider]

doing lines off strippers asses, etc.

As long as said stripper doesn’t fart at the same time, the COVID risk seems manageable

[skaredshtles]

Lemme guess. You must've been trying to kill grandma.

I remember a ton of people here being like "WhY WoN'T YoU ALL StAy ThE FuCK aT HoME?!!! AAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!"

Well... there *has* been a vaccine released between all that shit and now.

But carry on with the narrative.

[Mofro261]

He said "kid" parties. When you're harvesting adrenochrome you don't let viral pneumonia get in your way.

[ex-powderbroker]

didn’t find any studies saying the blm decreased covid count, montucky. guess it’s easier to be faux outraged when you’re armed with faux facts. but sure, sturgis during a pandemic and an outside birthday part after being vaxxed are the same.

i am not even saying i would go btw. but there’s certainly daylight between the two unless you’re a complete hack

[old goat]

475 confirmed guests and 200 staff...cmon man....really not a great message to be sending. I get it, its a 30 acre estate....its outside, but still very poor optics. He for sure earned it, cause being POTUS i think is a thankless fucking gig, but timing is wrong.

Obama don't care

(And the message he's sending--that you can do it if you do it right--is a good one. As far as optics--I hope there aren't any. It's not news. The only Presidential b'day that's news is Carter's.)

[neufox47]

When in the last 6+ months has anyone been getting outraged about out door events? Also, sounds like the Obama party will require at least one pre-event test, maybe one at the door too. You really owned the libs here dufus.


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[Benny Profane]

I'd say the dude earned it, not that he's my favorite president. (There hasn't been a favorite President in my lifetime.)
What the fuck have you done to earn what you have? Are you going to house all the evicted folks in your basement and garage?

Earned it? How? By being public servant #1 for eight years? Jezuz.
I worked since I delivered papers at 14. All my fucking life. Saving and investing. What did he do? Stand between the pitchforks and the bankers? (You know, he actually said something like that in the bank crisis. To the bankers. Play with me, I got your back.) And then drone faraway brown people to pink mist? All the while telling us schmucks, I can't do shit, the Republicans have me by the balls.

Half the Kennedys would probably get nailed in that Martha's drone hit. At least the ones who still try to power broker. They'll identify them by the teeth. Those Kennedy teeth.

[Skidog]

Lemme guess. You must've been trying to kill grandma.

I remember a ton of people here being like "WhY WoN'T YoU ALL StAy ThE FuCK aT HoME?!!! AAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!"

All the neighborhood old people really, and anyone fat or that had a pre existing conditions.

I've said it before and will repeat. My, and my immediate families habits changed very little during covid aside from what was required. Masks when required, etc..everyone in my family except my son (includes parents, and sister and her family) are all vaccinated. As soon as it's approved for under 12 yrs mine will get it. Never wore an N95, and only one family member got covid, as he had to travel for work, mild case. Don't recall washing hands any more or less, wasn't running around with bleach disinfecting everything in sight. Went to store when I needed or wanted to.

I won't sleep tonight knowing how many I put at risk with my crazy behavior.

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[Skidog]

When in the last 6+ months has anyone been getting outraged about out door events? Also, sounds like the Obama party will require at least one pre-event test, maybe one at the door too. You really owned the libs here dufus.


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Guess we should wait til it's over huh? Tests don't seem to do much at this point. Vaxxed people can test positive, sick people can test negative....on and on. Not trying to "own" anyone.

How bout that crowd at lalapaloosa? Guess since it wasn't a trump rally it won't be a "super spreader".

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[MagnificentUnicorn]

Prolly cuz of the increasing amount of SJW whacko meltdowns we've been seeing ever since Trump got elected:

SEE: Exhibits "A", "B", "C", "D", "E", "F"...


Make more sense now?

That’s the sound that I hear you making when you make your stupid posts


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[MagnificentUnicorn]

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

Who gives a fuck? He’s not the president. You’re an idiot, by all accounts a nice and generous guy, but you’re still an idiot based on the posts you make here


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[k2skier112]

Guess we should wait til it's over huh? Tests don't seem to do much at this point. Vaxxed people can test positive, sick people can test negative....on and on. Not trying to "own" anyone.

How bout that crowd at lalapaloosa? Guess since it wasn't a trump rally it won't be a "super spreader".

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no, just be cautious and avoid crowds

on and on? there is a very small percentage of inaccurate test results, weak sauce dude

nope, any large gathering will spread it, just depends on how many attendees are vaxxed

[skaredshtles]

<snip> only one family member got covid,

I'm just curious... how do you know this?

[Skidog]

Who gives a fuck? He’s not the president. You’re an idiot, by all accounts a nice and generous guy, but you’re still an idiot based on the posts you make here


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See I think most of his posts are clearly stated and well "spoken". I don't agree with everything he says, but he's clearly not alone in what his feelings are, based on news articles, etc.

Just because I disagree with someone doesn't mean I think they are an idiot. Believe it or not this is an ever evolving situation and nobody knows the end game.

Sadly the vax trails were only tested/trailed to reduce death and serious effects, and hasn't been proven to eradicate in any way. Obviously they work. I won't call anyone an idiot for not getting one though. There will always be people who can't or won't take the vax, I guess the idea is if enough do the virus has few places to go.

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[MagnificentUnicorn]

Who here is "outraged"? Or is about opening up "unless a liberal does it"? I have literally said in my posts about the Obama bash that he deserves it and should totally party. You idiots really take that as being "outraged"? I was mocking guys like YOU. Not Obama. Mocking those who selectively pick and choose what is and isn't a "super spreader event."

Heck. We've seen "studies" published that have said that last years BLM protests actually caused a DECREASE in COVID cases. FFS. Some of you idiots guzzle that drivel right up and determine what is morally right and wrong in regard to COVID. Want US to lock down for eternity and not even be able to visit our friends or family dying in a hospital, but a kick ass Obama party with like 700 people? Pssshhhh. No biggie, right?

Again. I'm totally down with the party. Sounds fun. Just wish some of you could be a bit more consistent with your positions on the matter.

EDIT: Wooley, it's "YOU'RE". Not "your."

Nobody said anything about it until you decided to take offense and “mock” us. You can’t mock people that don’t care about this and didn’t know about it. Your post was the first I heard about it. Keep skreeching REEEEE!


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[PNWbrit]

I guess the idea is if enough do the virus has few places to go.

You only guess?

[Skidog]

You only guess?

Well no, I know that's the point. So cool, us vaxxed folk get a rough cold, and the anti vaxxers mostly die off or get natural immunity...win win. I say it's time to let the chips fall where they may.

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