Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[::: :::]

Graphic summary of how the spread happened
worth a look if you can

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e=articleShare

[NWFlow]

^That's pretty incredible data visualization.

[jono]

Which means somebody should be working on a filtration method for these folks that does not further impede their breathing.

Available on Amazon. A little expensive and not likely as effective as a PAPR, but available. You could print one.

[Deebased]

Can we (New York State) secede from the Union now? This "United States" thing just is not working out. Please god help us.

You should have done it 2 months ago, when other states (even those horrid red ones) were helping you out and before everyone with >$20 to their name moved out.

[jono]

Couple of issues I had with that study.
1. Serologic markers were a peptide in the C-term of Spike and NP, not the RBD or S1 of Spike, so poor correlates of Ab to protective effect.
2. Their neutralization assay began at a 1:600 dilution, meaning anything less than that was considered negative. Most of the neut assays have a cut off of 1:80.

After spending 15yrs working on preventive Tcell vaccines I am very skeptical that they will work outside of therapy approaches. HIV, TB, Malaria. Flu.

Thanks! Does the cut off change their ability to measure levels above that or just the point at which they are effectively rounding down to zero?

[altasnob]

Haven't heard any chatter about Sweden in a few weeks. Sure, their deaths per capita are amongst the highest in Europe but their numbers appear to be leveling off as opposed to the recent spikes we are seeing in the US. Does this stem from the effects of nearing herd immunity?

And while the confirmed cases are rapidly increasing in the US, we are not seeing the deaths to correlate, or at least compared to the wave that hit NY earlier. Maybe the deaths will come in a few weeks?

And if you want to see a really crazy statistic, Singapore is number 13 on earth for most cases per capita, just below the US. Total deaths in Singapore to date is 22, which puts them at 137 deaths per capita ranking (13 cases per capita ranking vs 137 deaths per capita ranking). Maybe they are capturing nearly all who are truly infected with testing (they are number 20 in tests per capita, ahead of US, who is 26).

[Deebased]

Haven't heard any chatter about Sweden in a few weeks. Sure, their deaths per capita are amongst the highest in Europe but their numbers appear to be leveling off as opposed to the recent spikes we are seeing in the US. Does this stem from the effects of nearing herd immunity?

And while the confirmed cases are rapidly increasing in the US, we are not seeing the deaths to correlate, or at least compared to the wave that hit NY earlier. Maybe the deaths will come in a few weeks?

And if you want to see a really crazy statistic, Singapore is number 13 on earth for most cases per capita, just below the US. Total deaths in Singapore to date is 22, which puts them at 137 deaths per capita ranking (13 cases per capita ranking vs 137 deaths per capita ranking). Maybe they are capturing nearly all who are truly infected with testing (they are number 20 in tests per capita, ahead of US, who is 26).

Check out Belarus if you want to have your mind blown.

[The AD]

Haven't heard any chatter about Sweden in a few weeks. Sure, their deaths per capita are amongst the highest in Europe but their numbers appear to be leveling off as opposed to the recent spikes we are seeing in the US. Does this stem from the effects of nearing herd immunity?

No way. Sweden isn't anywhere close to having herd immunity.

[k2skier112]

Graphic summary of how the spread happened
worth a look if you can

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e=articleShare

Thanks for that

[DJSapp]

COPD or perhaps someone recovered from lung cancer with lobectomy, Cystic Fibrosis, Lung Scaring from smoke inhalation, veteran exposed to agent orange. All high risk for infection and perhaps shouldn't be out and about, but still there are plenty of people with decreased lung capacity.

And I've personally put a lot of folks who fit some part of those descriptions in N95, half face and full face respirators as concrete masons for 8+ hour shifts, 40+ hours a week. There were also some who legitimately couldn't do it and they knew their career as a mason was done, but many more that did. Lots of older folks in the trade with reduced lung function due to 30+ years of silica dust building up just suck it up because it puts food on the table. It's amazing that people will put up with that when it's their paycheck, but they won't on their own time.

I get that they may need to take it off from time to time, but I'm already sick of the number of entitled people already running to their Dr. for an exemption and then flaunting it because their super thin mask is itchy or irritates their skin. Maybe try a bit harder. Wear it as long as you can handle it, pull it down somewhere out of the way and recollect yourself, pull it up and continue. Get a different material. Your shirt and pants don't irritate your skin, cut one of those up. JFC people. Just try.

[Mofro261]

Thanks! Does the cut off change their ability to measure levels above that or just the point at which they are effectively rounding down to zero?

Normally, a neutralization assay involves a 2-fold serial dilution of sera mixed with virus (or pseudotyped virus), and several of the other assays I have seen report neutralizing Ab's over several orders of magniutude across their patient populations, with positve NT50's as low as 1:80. They didn't do that- they took a static 1:600 and then calculated a % netralization at 2 seperate time points. So if the nuet titer didn't reach at least a 1:600 -fold dilution, it was considered negative. Moreover, the reduction in neutralization was much weaker than the reported fall in IgG titer:

The median percentage of decrease was 8.3% (range, 0.5–22.8%) for neutralizing serum antibodies in the asymptomaticgroup, whereas the median percentage of decrease was 11.7% (range, 2.3–41.1%) in the symptomatic group (Fig. 3d).

Anyway, possibly important in the context of Asym Ab responses being lower, but still a single study on small populations.

[Deebased]

No way. Sweden isn't anywhere close to having herd immunity.

So you're saying you don't believe the transmission rates?

[altasnob]

Why are Sweden and NYC's rate of infection lowering while Houston is rising? The virus is in Sweden, NYC, and Houston today, so why does it increase faster in some places than others? Why do pandemics come in waves at all? Seasonal variance promotes the waves to some extent. But I assume one reason Sweden and NYC have a low rate of infection is because there are less never had corona people there, as a percentage of total population, than in Houston, which is fertile ground. Not saying Sweden has full herd immunity but I don't understand why, if you haven't locked things down, you would start seeing a reduction in infection rate. Why has NYC numbers not increased dramatically now that they are opening back up? One explanation for this is that as more and more people are infected, the virus has a harder time spreading (so you start seeing the effects of herd immunity before you are actually at herd immunity).

Oh, and Belerus is interesting. 60,382 cases, 367 deaths.

[bodywhomper]

So you're saying you don't believe the transmission rates?

Has there been an update since Sweden performed their antibody study in Stockholm at the end of April. Google is telling me “no.”

[altasnob]

Not aware of update on Sweden antibody studies but just check out the wiki page. You can critique Sweden for much higher number of deaths. But recently, the rate of increase of deaths is extremely low. Why is this if they have not locked down and are out and about today?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...emic_in_Sweden

[CarlMega]

at some point, you've already killed off the most vulnerable. Also - as time passes - hopefully you've learned the best treatments to avoid death. However, if you overwhelm systems - people who would have ordinarily survive - might die. That's one reason flattening the curve is important. /old news.

[Bunion 2020]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/co...9Dp?li=BBnb7Kz

Coronavirus may have infected 10 times more Americans than reported, CDC says

WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.

To add a little fear....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...HaF?li=BBnb7Kz

These States May Face 'Apocalyptic' COVID-19, Says Virologist

Just a month ago, many Americans believed that the worst was over in regards to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, over the last few weeks, major infection surges in some of the country's most populous states have proved that we are just getting started. And, according to one of the nation's top infectious disease experts, the potential result could be "apocalyptic."

The three most populous states in the country—Texas, Florida, and California—home to more than 27.4% of the population are experiencing record breaking cases of the highly infectious and potentially deadly virus. CNN reports that Florida and Texas topped 5,000 new COVID-19 cases the prior day, while California recorded more than 7,000.

[bodywhomper]

Not aware of update on Sweden antibody studies but just check out the wiki page. You can critique Sweden for much higher number of deaths. But recently, the rate of increase of deaths is extremely low. Why is this if they have not locked down and are out and about today?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...emic_in_Sweden

My understanding is that a large number of Swedes have dispersed to their rural summering residents.

Per worldometer, Sweden has recorded ~64,000 cases in total and ~50,000 of them are still active. June 24th resulted in the highest # of recorded cases thus far.

[::: :::]

when everybody has the virus =//= herd immunity

[The AD]

at some point, you've already killed off the most vulnerable.

I think this is a big part of it. The initial hit on nursing homes is probably largely over. Now the new infections are being driven by younger people who are back out congregating. That's driving up infection rates but keeping death rates low, but that could change because eventually these younger folks are going to infect more at risk individuals.

[jono]

Not aware of update on Sweden antibody studies but just check out the wiki page. You can critique Sweden for much higher number of deaths. But recently, the rate of increase of deaths is extremely low. Why is this if they have not locked down and are out and about today?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...emic_in_Sweden

Out and about? From your link:

Following agency advice, the government has passed legislation limiting freedom of assembly by temporarily banning gatherings of over 50 individuals, banning people from visiting nursing homes, and physically closing secondary schools and universities. Primary schools have remained open, in part to avoid healthcare workers staying home with their children.

The Public Health Agency issued recommendations to: if possible, work from home; avoid unnecessary travel within the country; engage in social distancing; and for people above 70 to stay at home, as much as possible. Those with even minimal symptoms that could be caused by COVID-19 are recommended to stay home. The karensdag, or initial day without paid sick-leave, has been removed by the government and the length of time one can stay home with pay without a doctor's note has been raised from 7 to 21 days.

Individual decisions by Swedes are not as government mandated as in other places, but they're much more free to make smart decisions there (like staying home with pay for 21 days) than we are in the US. Here the PPP loans are leveraged to push employers to bring employees back ASAP and we have no plan whatsoever to enable any high risk population except the independently wealthy to self isolate without starving. The Swedes have attained heard immunity = I heard it on the internet, it must be true.

[old goat]

Can we (New York State) secede from the Union now? This "United States" thing just is not working out. Please god help us.

Sure, just don't expect any statues.

[bennymac]

COPD or perhaps someone recovered from lung cancer with lobectomy, Cystic Fibrosis, Lung Scaring from smoke inhalation, veteran exposed to agent orange. All high risk for infection and perhaps shouldn't be out and about, but still there are plenty of people with decreased lung capacity.

Sure - that’s a list of people with lung damage - they are gonna have reduced ability to move oxygen into their bloodstream - but that happens deep inside their lungs. Is there truly a reduction in oxygen flow into the lungs seen in someone wearing a mask? There is of course going to be a spectrum of disease impact here - someone with really shitty lung function is gonna be impacted by the small increase in effort needed to breath through a mask. But that’s the most severe cases.

Millions of people have COPD and are not on supplemental oxygen and otherwise go about their day with minimal restriction in functioning. Wearing a cloth mask is not going to impact the vast majority of them from a lung function standpoint in my opinion.

[old goat]

Mofro or anyone else--refresh my memory. Does vaccine effectiveness depend on maintaining constant high antibody levels, or can the antibody levels fall but then rise rapidly when the host is exposed to the antigen again?

Analogy--the great toilet paper shortage, caused by too much commercial TP in giant rolls for offices and not enough for home. Eventually the supply chain was adapted to correct the imbalance. Once the pandemic is over we will need commercial TP again, but when the next pandemic hits we will know how to adapt much more quickly and we should have plenty of TP at home.

[altasnob]

The Swedes have attained heard immunity = I heard it on the internet, it must be true.

It's been discussed way, way, back that various countries will hit herd immunity at different % positive, but 60% of the population positive is a general rule of thumb. However, from my understanding, you start seeing the effects of herd immunity well before you hit 60%. So for instance, if 40% of a population has been infected, you will not have herd immunity but the virus will have a harder time spreading than, say, 5% of the population infected. This is what I am wondering. Not saying Sweden (or NYC) has herd immunity. But is the slowing there caused by the effects of herd immunity? Rhetorical question. I don't think anyone on earth knows the answer to this. Just something to think about.