Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[bodywhomper]

Glad to hear that. I finally got it last May and despite being fully vaxxed (though about a year out and no booster) my ass was kicked for 2 weeks and I didn't feel 100% for at least 6 weeks.

I bet it was a bit stressful taking so long to feel recovered.

Have several close friends that had similar experiences. For a few, it took over a month to fully run through their house (family) to first positive RAT to last RAT. And now, I see them in town in “back to normal” mode. One of them is a GP/PCP.

It is most surprising to me to walk into a doctors office and observe staff. Some staff and doctors are in tight fitting kn95/n95, some are in lose fitting surgical masks, some are spending most of their time w/o masks. At my GP, some of the exam rooms have hepa filters and some do not. I noticed that at least one of the doctors that always wears a kn95 mask also has a hepa filter in their exam room.

[bennymac]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2802161

Question: Do the symptom profiles among children with SARS-CoV-2 infection evaluated in tertiary care emergency departments differ by variant type?

Findings: In this multicenter Canadian cohort study of 1440 children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, those with Alpha variant infection reported the fewest core COVID-19 symptoms, while those with Omicron variant infection reported more fever, lower respiratory tract, and systemic symptoms than those infected by other variants. Hospitalization and intensive care admission rates were comparable across variants.

Meaning: Although the characteristics of presenting symptoms have changed as the SARS-CoV-2 virus has evolved, the proportions of infected children experiencing undesirable outcomes has remained stable.

"the rates of hospitalization, ICU admission, and total health care provider revisits did not differ between variants. Thus, unlike in adults, it does not appear that children are being less severely affected by emerging variants, and understanding the clinical presentation of COVID-19 in children is needed to design therapeutic trials on this population."

--

Study showing that, even though covid became less "potent" for adults as each variant showed up that idea may not hold true for kids.

Smrtr people here can chime in if I'm reading this wrong.

[twat]

And apparently a wet market treat(!) that may have spread the cooties.

Interesting article on “normalcy bias.”
“Normalcy bias is going to play a defining role in our culture going forward, as the threats we’ve been warned about for decades become daily realities. The mainstream news will keep coming up with cute ways to spin the latest supply chain crisis or epic disaster, right before redirecting our attention to the latest vacation deals. We’re going to see a lot of strange behavior. We’re going to see a lot of people who don’t seem to have any survival instincts at all.”

https://jessicawildfire.substack.com...utm_medium=web

So cute and so deadly. Like in an horror movie.

[old goat]

And apparently a wet market treat(!) that may have spread the cooties.

Interesting article on “normalcy bias.”
“Normalcy bias is going to play a defining role in our culture going forward, as the threats we’ve been warned about for decades become daily realities. The mainstream news will keep coming up with cute ways to spin the latest supply chain crisis or epic disaster, right before redirecting our attention to the latest vacation deals. We’re going to see a lot of strange behavior. We’re going to see a lot of people who don’t seem to have any survival instincts at all.”

https://jessicawildfire.substack.com...utm_medium=web

True, and has always been so. That's why soldiers, first responders, etc train, why they drill kids in California what to do in an earthquake--not just o know what to do in an emergency but to recognize it and react. The reason most people stand around when someone is trying to die is not cowardice or indifference--it's because people can't believe something bad is happening. Many years ago I was at the beach ont eh American River and a drowning guy floated by. Despite having lifeguard training I didn't appreciate what was going on. Fortunately someone else did and saved the guy.

[bodywhomper]

Yes. It was interesting to me to see it spelled out by the different types of responses correlating to % of population, which I was not aware of, “30 percent respond well.
10 percent freak out.
10 percent minimize.
50 percent go into sheep mode.” I didn’t think the blog accounted for the government spinning of information and misinformation (and the reasons for why they are doing it). It almost feels like they are pushing for more people to be in “sheep mode.”

[old goat]

I think a lot depends on the nature of an emergency and how expected or unexpected it is. If your condo building decided to collapse without warning it would probably take too long to realize what was happening and leave. Unless you live in FL.

[Percy Rideout]

Yes. It was interesting to me to see it spelled out by the different types of responses correlating to % of population, which I was not aware of, “30 percent respond well.
10 percent freak out.
10 percent minimize.
50 percent go into sheep mode.” I didn’t think the blog accounted for the government spinning of information and misinformation (and the reasons for why they are doing it). It almost feels like they are pushing for more people to be in “sheep mode.”

[old goat]

How the White House stifled CDC messaging in the early days of the pandemic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/h...smid=url-share

[LongShortLong]

How the White House stifled CDC messaging in the early days of the pandemic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/h...smid=url-share

I apologize for ridiculing the CDC. Some of that ridicule belongs to the administration.

[bodywhomper]

I suppose some of the current ridicule of current cdc covid shit can also be attribute to the current administration, but the current director is very foolish and tone deaf. She is admitting that covid cannot be controlled and to give up. She demonstrated how to take sick leave when you’re infected and had to take 3 weeks off work, as if every American has that luxury. Her children attend schools where the school district has implemented infrastructure of highly improved air ventilation and filtration (Jha’s children are in the same district). She is the mouthpiece of the elite telling people to get back to work while the elite take precautions to minimize their exposure/risk and pretend that there is nothing to be concerned about.

[SumJongGuy]

Current CDC policy is not 3 weeks of isolation.. it's 5 days. Stay home 5 days then wear a mask out and about for another 5 days. People driving your uber and serving your food will still be saying fuck that, I can't afford it though.

When the first wave hit our household my employer was amazingly generous with the time off, and not impacting my pto/vacation balance. That isn't the case now and most Americans are totally screwed when it happens to them. So, not everyone discloses it or bothers to test if they suspet they have it.. because it's a big financial hit and even a risk of losing that low wage job.

[bodywhomper]

Current CDC policy is not 3 weeks of isolation.. it's 5 days. Stay home 5 days then wear a mask out and about for another 5 days. People driving your uber and serving your food will still be saying fuck that, I can't afford it though.

When the first wave hit our household my employer was amazingly generous with the time off, and not impacting my pto/vacation balance. That isn't the case now and most Americans are totally screwed when it happens to them. So, not everyone discloses it or bothers to test if they suspet they have it.. because it's a big financial hit and even a risk of losing that low wage job.

Yeah. The 5-day thing was the cdc policy when the director had covid. She did not follow her agency’s recommendation. She had the luxury. Shouldn’t everybody?

[old goat]

I hate to break it to you but whoever runs the CDC or the NIH or the FDA is going to be a member of the "elite". Or do we give the jobs to bus drivers, cops, and teachers?
FWIW Walensky was still testing positive after the 5 days and taking Paxlovid, which is why she stayed home longer. (I'm sure she was working from home.)
The CDC's recommendation for ending isolation is more complicated than just 5 days.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ear%20a%20mask.

Contrary to what bodywhomper said--the CDC is not pushing people to go back to work. They got a lot of flak for the 5d home/10d mask recommendation being too lenient but it was made because of the practicality of people not being able to afford to be off for weeks and the damage to businesses and the economy when peope are off for weeks. I don't see the harm in someone staying off longer if they can afford to, can work priductively from home etc. I stayed off for the full 10 days. (Because I didn't need to shop and I didn't want to sit on a chair lift with a mask on. My "job" is skiing when I feel like it.) It's interesting what they say about testing--testing is to determine not when you can end isolation but if you can stop masking before 10 days.

There's a lot of the usual veiled misogyny in the criticisms of Walensky. She is certainly doing a much better job than her predecessor Redfield--who was a mouthpiece for Trump but who got minimal flak.

[whyturn]

On day 2-3 now or trying to recover after positive test. What day is it? It was rough mainly fever at almost 103 and headache and cough. But the tired weakened state was terrible. Steer clear if you can. Back to 99 temp and feeling a little stronger today. What day is it?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[LongShortLong]

Good news! The current admin says the pandemic is over - "mission accomplished." And our local metrics show case counts are indeed way down from the peak. However, local metrics (measured by sewer) also show community prevalence is currently half the peak.

https://covid19.sccgov.org/covid-cases-wastewater

In other words, despite CDC's and other government platitudes, there's a shitton of covid and the pandemic rages.

As I read ourworldindata.org, Covid killed 150k Americans in the last year, so that's an improvement. Drops it down to #3 killer. If the deceasing death trend continues, that's actually good news.

[bennymac]

Good news! The current admin says the pandemic is over - "mission accomplished." And our local metrics show case counts are indeed way down from the peak. However, local metrics (measured by sewer) also show community prevalence is currently half the peak.

https://covid19.sccgov.org/covid-cases-wastewater

In other words, despite CDC's and other government platitudes, there's a shitton of covid and the pandemic rages.

As I read ourworldindata.org, Covid killed 150k Americans in the last year, so that's an improvement. Drops it down to #3 killer. If the deceasing death trend continues, that's actually good news.

Progress!

[bodywhomper]

I do not see how my statements about the cdc director are misogynistic. They have been fucking up. The criticism that I am making and have been seeing do not seem to consider gender.


Doesn’t Walensky’s family own a pharma or biotech company? She is part of the elite.

The continual guidance to get people back to work, guidance to wear a mask for a certain # of days after testing positive, just get a vaccine, masks are not necessary unless you’re in that window of testing positive, make your individual decision about your risk, etc. was not based on available science and was not geared toward prevention of the spread of disease. Some states and local governments had policies and guidance based on available science that contradicted the cdc. How many days of work have been loss because of people following the cdc guidance and infecting coworkers? How many have contracted long covid as a result of following those guidance? What’s the loss to the economy from those sick days or disability? I know Forbes has published some analysis.

The director of the cdc has stated multiple times that the spread of covid cannot be prevented. Is that a science-based statement?

When the world economic forum met this winter, it was test to enter, masking for workers, high ventilation and filtration in meeting areas, etc. those methods for mitigating the spread of covid were “following the science.” The film industry has similar procedures.

The cdc still first describes hand washing in its list for preventing catching/spreading covid. There is still emphasis on catching your cough if you’re sick or exposed.

Personally, I have witnessed several well educated and cautious people/friends/family that have now caught mild covid at least once and follow the cdc guidance as the gold standard. Some have had very severe other diseases (odd fungal infection, severe bacterial pneumonia of a teen who had the sniffles before dramatically crashing, bad RSV) that could likely be due to immune dysfunction during the longer term immune system recovery after a covid infection. Know another who had a brainscan for another reason and the neuro team found evidence of a small undetected stroke that wasn’t a represent 2 years before (no red flags that they could be susceptible to stroke). Several have had covid 2 or 3 times in a year.

[MontuckyFried]

Wow. Somebody needs a good old fashioned beat down...

Moderna CEO brazenly defends 400% COVID shot price hike, downplays NIH’s role
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023...00-price-hike/

Much to his great credit, Senator Sanders tried his best to take this asshole to task, but I'm sure in the end nothing will change.

[mcski]

Get Dolly on his ass.

[old goat]

The CDC's current 5d/10d recommendation is a) a cynical ploy to force people back to work too soon for the benefit of their employers , b) a cruel policy to keep people off work who can't afford 5 days off sick ,c) both d) neither

Bodywhomper--if by fucking up you mean some scientists (and a shitload of people who aren't qualified to have an opinion) wiill disagree with everything the CDC does then it's impossible for it to not fuck up. Right now in the US people of all sides of the political spectrum are constiitutionally unable to believe anything govt says, credit anything it does. It's not hard to understand why after all the lies we have heard over the decades but the fact is that govt often gets it right, which is surprising given that we are an ungovernable people.

The one indisputble fuck up from the CDC IMO is the early testing fiasco. It would be interesting to know more about the internal politics that caused it to release a bad test, especially since good tests were available.

Given that there no longer appear to be excess deaths compared to historically expected seasonally adjusted averages; that cases, deaths, and hospitalizations continue to fall and there has been no winter spike; that there is effective treatment for high risk patients, that the pathogenicity of the current variant appears to be lower--whether due to inherent characteristics or a high level of immunity--the CDC's current recommendations re isolation, immunization, and masking appear reasonable to me. Assuming the lack of excess deaths continue then yes--the "pandemic" is over. This doesn't mean covid is over, but it determines the level of countermeasures that are appropriate. In any case, the outcome of Covid is not determined by the CDC, it's determined by what the citizens choose to do.

[bodywhomper]

YLE just laid out the current excess death, a graph from the “Northeast” that shows the extent/severity of cases of the January 2023 spike (there was a similar spike in the Bay Area), and a description of how mortality is still above “endemic levels.” https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...-march-21-2023

If you read how the cdc developed its guidance for stopping isolation based on symptoms, it was based on statistics and probability rather than RAT results, which were available for free at the time and were far more accurate than relying on averages from older variants.

Here’s a current example. The cdc description of how to avoid getting long covid:
“The best way to prevent Post-COVID Conditions is to protect yourself and others from becoming infected. For people who are eligible, CDC recommends staying up to date on COVID-19 vaccination, along with improving ventilation, getting tested for COVID-19 if needed, and seeking treatment for COVID-19 if eligible. Additional preventative measures include avoiding close contact with people who have a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 illness and practicing hand hygiene, which means washing with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...cts/index.html

The best way to protect yourself and others from getting infected is to wear a fucking respirator mask in indoor public places. It’s not mentioned once on that entire page about long covid.

Cdc director has gone from describing how to stop the spread of covid: https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/stat...Mbjk5ElmdWLRnQ

To saying that we can’t stop the spread of covid: https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/stat...912155648?s=12

Of course, adding to the poor communication and odd policy, the cdc community metrics were related to keeping hospitalization numbers from spiking rather than preventing the spread of disease.

This is all low hanging fruit.

[old goat]

YLE just laid out the current excess death, a graph from the “Northeast” that shows the extent/severity of cases of the January 2023 spike (there was a similar spike in the Bay Area), and a description of how mortality is still above “endemic levels.” https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...-march-21-2023

If you read how the cdc developed its guidance for stopping isolation based on symptoms, it was based on statistics and probability rather than RAT results, which were available for free at the time and were far more accurate than relying on averages from older variants.

Here’s a current example. The cdc description of how to avoid getting long covid:
“The best way to prevent Post-COVID Conditions is to protect yourself and others from becoming infected. For people who are eligible, CDC recommends staying up to date on COVID-19 vaccination, along with improving ventilation, getting tested for COVID-19 if needed, and seeking treatment for COVID-19 if eligible. Additional preventative measures include avoiding close contact with people who have a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 illness and practicing hand hygiene, which means washing with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...cts/index.html

The best way to protect yourself and others from getting infected is to wear a fucking respirator mask in indoor public places. It’s not mentioned once on that entire page about long covid.

Cdc director has gone from describing how to stop the spread of covid: https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/stat...Mbjk5ElmdWLRnQ

To saying that we can’t stop the spread of covid: https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/stat...912155648?s=12

Of course, adding to the poor communication and odd policy, the cdc community metrics were related to keeping hospitalization numbers from spiking rather than preventing the spread of disease.

This is all low hanging fruit.

Regarding excess deaths--your source is talking about excess respiratory infection deaths compared to adjusted seasonal averages. I'm talking about total excess deatths, which have been 0 since the beginning of February. (The most recent weeks are not accurate because the deaths may not have been reported yet. Excess deaths were 0 last spring as well, so things could spike again.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm scrol about 2/5 of the way down.

This does not mean that no one is dying of covid. Far from it. But it does mean that the number of covid deaths is not enough to raise the overall death rate in the country (if the trend persists) and that would seem to be a reasonable time to no longer recommend precautions beyond the 5d/10d isolation/masking and getting vaccinated. Stricter precautions would further reduce covid illness and death. The Chinese proved that; they also proved it was not sustainable, even in the most controlled and surveilled authoritarian country in the world. Short of total lockdown covid containment will always be a tradeoff. Some may prefer practices stricter than the CDC recommends, some may prefer looser. These are grounds for debate, not "fuckups".

By the natural variabiity of small numbers there will be periodic spikes and periodic lulls in various parts of the country. If thee shift from place to place then should be considered part of the statistical noise and ignored in favor of the country wide numbers. If the same places have persistent spikes then it is reasonable to consider stronger measures in those places.

Regarding the second tweet from Walensky you linked, it was in the context of allowing unvaccinated people to fly from China to the US with a negative preflight test. She was echoing what almost every scientist has said -- that Covid will not be eradicated, that it will remain in the community and that people will continue to contract it. Admittedly I have not read statements from every scientst but I have not yet come across anyone saying that they think the virus can be eradicated. The policy re travel from China seems reasonable given that a) Chinese vaccines suck so it wouldn't do much good to require them b) our vaccines don't seem to stop transmission of the current variants, and c) the virus and its various strains are already here; the experience with this virus has shown that you can't stop it from going from place to place and it's already here by the time you try ,

[LongShortLong]

I don't envy the CDC. They have to balance politics and science. I agree it would be nice if they'd tell us the science, but also see the difficulty they face.

E.g. Wearing a respirator mask indoors to prevent long Covid. I'd add avoiding indoors to the extent possible. So far, most of my close circle has avoided Covid infection with those two simple rules. And most who've caught it also broke the rules.

Trouble is, as a national policy, wearing a respirator indoors would end the restaurant and bar industry. Avoiding indoors puts a crimp on most industry. And most people don't want to wear a mask. CDC also has the problem that the mask studies are a mixed bag on whether they are effective (aside - I'd guess due to people taking them off to eat). I think these issues make it difficult for CDC to say much about mask wearing to prevent Covid/long Covid. It's a big ask to shut industry for a few weeks, and they did that. It's hard to justify policy that would kill an industry, and restrict most industry long term. So even if the high-level CDC bureaucrats believe wearing respirator masks prevents long Covid, I can see it getting dropped from the recommendations.

[LongShortLong]

Regarding the second tweet from Walensky you linked, it was in the context of allowing unvaccinated people to fly from China to the US with a negative preflight test. She was echoing what almost every scientist has said -- that Covid will not be eradicated, that it will remain in the community and that people will continue to contract it. Admittedly I have not read statements from every scientst but I have not yet come across anyone saying that they think the virus can be eradicated. The policy re travel from China seems reasonable given that a) Chinese vaccines suck so it wouldn't do much good to require them b) our vaccines don't seem to stop transmission of the current variants, and c) the virus and its various strains are already here; the experience with this virus has shown that you can't stop it from going from place to place and it's already here by the time you try ,

I can see why she got slammed for that. As phrased it appears to be racist (or political) singling out Chinese travelers, but only if they aren't citizens or immigrants (same as the original Trump admin nonsense). And maybe travelers from China should have been singled out due to China's sudden decision at that time to let it rip, all travelers. However, when I click through to the actual order, there's no change from 8 months earlier, and the requirement is for a negative test prior to boarding, which I believe is the standard everyone has to meet for international travel.

There's also some bullshit concern in there about new variants from China. Since we don't have a zero-Covid policy, rigorous travel quarantines, etc, that's straight racism. Those variants were gonna get here regardless of our China travel policies.

And farking hell, some twits in the comments are sexist shitheads.

[SumJongGuy]

The expert/authority figures can't win. Whatever recs they issue will be vehemently opposed by a lot of people as too strict or not strict enough. I just wish everyone would test if the suspect they were exposed or feel symptoms .. AND wear a mask wherever they go out of their own house for 10 days if they come back positive. I'd prefer they stay home but agree we can't "make" them without paying them.. Now that the hospitals are keeping up it's hard to justify forcing people to stay home..

Bigger question, should it be a crime to KNOWINGLY expose other people?? i.e.. you know you are positive but go out and about unmasked anyway?? Isn't a crime to have unprotected sex without telling your partner when you know you have a STD??