Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[riser4]

Federal government should be collecting the food that is being destroyed and give it to the states to be able to sustain social distancing. That's what a competent government would do.

[gravitylover]

Key word being competent

[iceman]

Model suggests the virus spread widely in the US before detection. I've been banging this drum for a little while, it seemed to me like it had to be true. Part of this goes back to initial introduction/creation/birth if this virus, which I still believe was substantially earlier than we're hearing (even though they keep moving it back): https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/u...gtype=Homepage

[SkiCougar]

Mainly because it doesn't fit my narrative.

well, i'm not about t get in a post fight with you all, but from here: https://bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates?form=COVD07

Arkansas has a fatality rate of 3% and new York state has one of 7% of those infected

I really have no idea if someplace in Arkansas is a hot spot but with 95 fatalities for a state of 3 million, I would not think so

[SkiCougar]

I keep wondering about Sweden's experiment. I am still convinced they are hoping all the brown people let in from the M.E. die from it.

if true, I am liking Sweden more and more !

[huckbucket]

if true, I am liking Sweden more and more !

You never fail to disappoint. Kudos.

[LegoSkier]

This is a nice summary on how this virus operates, and it would behoove those of you seeking clarification on some of the issues raised here to watch the whole thing. Of course, I fully expect that some of you after watching will continue posturing and acting like bitches.

Farzan ought to stay out of politics when talking science.

Hey! Scripps changed its name- when I was there it was The Scripps Research Institute. The logo's different, too. I like the old organic molecule better.

Yeah, aren't these your former people?
Definitely a good basic explainer.

If only there was some technology to screen entire population sets for commonalities in antibodies to this virus and identify the exact antibody genetics and the exact parts of the viral genome they are reacting to...oh wait...nevermind, I should get back to work.

[klauss]

Skip to 5min in.

The doc has me optimistic.


Yet, another "hopeful" treatment?

UofL believes it's made breakthrough in COVID-19 treatment, works to fast-track approval
https://www.wlky.com/article/uofl-be...roval/32240538

In the race to find a treatment, UofL says it has developed a technology believed to block SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, from infecting human cells. They explained it this way: The technology is based on a piece of synthetic DNA, or an “aptamer,” which targets and binds with a human protein called nucleolin.

[Core Shot]

If we get the best and brightest minds together


We might be able to build a fully automatic potato cannon to help with the shortage.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I keep wondering about Sweden's experiment. I am still convinced they are hoping all the brown people let in from the M.E. die from it.

It's confusing things here because some people look at it and assume the Swedes are just operating business as usual and no one is social distancing, wearing masks, doing anything different. That's not what's happening and people are being mislead by their results IMO. Not that their experiment won't be useful from an analysis standpoint, but using it as a road map on how to react is probably not going to work well for other countries for a variety of reasons.

[summit]

Depends on where they tested.

Attachment 326230

Based on 21.2% in NYC testing positive, this implies 1.78 million people are/were infected! The data has yet to be provided though.

Also still puts the CFR between 0.5% and 1%

13.8% of NY has antibodies if the data was perfect and extrapolates perfectly.

That's 2.69 million, almost exactly 10x the number of reported positives.

0.8% IFR, however this is misleadingly low because:

1. Antibody positive rates may be inflated due to false positives because we don't know how specific this test is.
2. Antibodies may be present in cases that have not yet but will develop COVID.
3. Many who have the disease have not yet died while the disease itself is still spreading (remember when SK where testing was super broad had a CFR of 0.85%? Now it's 2.2% because they are far past peak).

I bet IFR settles around 1-1.2%

[Viva]

The doc has me optimistic.

C'est bon! He has a very simple message: 1) this virus is very easy to defeat and 2) the only reason it survives is because it's so fucking contagious.

He spends way too much time talking biologics (Not surprising as that's his bailiwick) while glossing over other effective approaches.

[Deebased]

It looks like you misinterpreted what was being said, "The results of the study indicate that this test reliably confirms exposure to SARS-CoV-2 twenty days after the onset of symptoms."

Their statement is not in conflict with Mofro's statement: "Antibodies in symptomatic people have been noted as early as day 1 onset of symptoms. Between day 1 and day 7 antibodies are seen in ~45% of people, by day 10 its 90% and by day 20 100% will be IgG positive,"

Note the difference, on day 20 100% will be IgG positive and not "antibodies take several weeks after symptom onset to generate" They explicitly mention the uncertainties, including the time to develop immunity. Instead of jumping to conclusions those uncertainties become part of the distribution or "variability," 5.5% (3.3-to-7.7%).

Sure did. Happy to admit when wrong. Presents a pretty interesting model for the ~95% who may have been asymptomatic but only 45% likely to test positive for antibodies.

[huckbucket]

13.8% of NY has antibodies if the data was perfect and extrapolates perfectly.

That's 2.693 million, almost exactly 10x the number of reported positives.

0.6% IFR.

I hate lumping NYC with the rest of the state given the large difference in positivity.

[Deebased]

Nah, why on earth would anyone derive a sense of purpose from willingly allowing themselves to be enslaved? There's nothing normal about the way our current economy and society are structured, humans aren't meant to be wage slaves.

SRS question. What are they meant to be?

[Core Shot]

SRS question. What are they meant to be?

Glade master is dreaming of an autonomous collective

[summit]

I hate lumping NYC with the rest of the state given the large difference in positivity.

21.1% of NYC has antibodies if the data was perfect and extrapolates perfectly.

That's 1.76 million, about 11x the number of reported positives.

0.84% IFR (vs 0.8% for NYS)

Again those are misleadingly low

[Ottime]

Maybe Montana is doing its best to convince Bay Area and Seatle folks to work from home from their home state and not from Montana. Not that I have that option, but I'm not looking for property in Bozeman right now.

I understand the exposure risk, but the math only works when we have actual numbers of confirmed cases to base them off of. Testing in Montana is completely fucked. That is well known and recognized. It seems irresponsible to be making a decision to open thing back up without a semblance of the actual number of cases.

Maybe I’m being more nervous than I should be, it just seems like a smart move to hold off until we have our ducks in row concerning testing. At work we have been talking a lot about risk informed decisions, worthy conversations, but in order for them to be effective the ‘informed’ part needs to be there. Without it, it’s just a risky decision. This is when we need to rely on science/fact and not just a gut feeling.

[Benny Profane]

Nah ... I just love the Quayle relevance to anything potatoe

Obscure 80s reference.

[Benny Profane]

So sad. How can there not be demand for potatoes? Basic food staple. The government can’t figure out how to pick them up and take them to shelters? Spend billions on bombs but not a few grand on feeding starving people. Humans are doomed.


Lol shitless and I both put the ixnay on uailqae

French fries. With the fast food restaurant industry shut down, no need. There are massive farms just to feed the FF demand.

[m2711c]

How long can you warehouse taters before they rot?

[skaredshtles]

well, i'm not about t get in a post fight with you all, but from here: https://bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates?form=COVD07

Arkansas has a fatality rate of 3% and new York state has one of 7% of those infected

I really have no idea if someplace in Arkansas is a hot spot but with 95 fatalities for a state of 3 million, I would not think so

"Never trust anyone that uses Bing for internet searches"

-Abraham Lincoln

[Bunion 2020]

"Never trust anyone that uses Bing for internet searches"

-Abraham Lincoln

From Bing....

[Benny Profane]

How long can you warehouse taters before they rot?

It's probably like the oil situation. The frozen fries are filled to capacity in refrigerated storage, and now the new crops are worth less than zero.

The potatoe cannon is a great idea. I'm so bored, that would easily kill an afternoon.

[riser4]

Obscure 80s reference.

Need a serving of government cheese.