Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[The AD]

Attachment 365095

Can anyone explain me the logic of wearing a mask when standing, but you can take it off when seated? Same air, same aerosols.
What possible basis exists for that seated/standing logic? It’s about breathing the same air, what about being seated stops you from breathing?

Presumably people seated are actively eating or drinking.

[MultiVerse]

No WI spike after Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years or when stupid Green Bay fans packed the Stadium View Bar for playoff games. The decline in hospitalizations including ICU patients has been dropping since November 16th. Only 11 times since November 16th has the number of hospitalizations increased from the previous day.

And yet the virus still surges in Wisconsin. Don't confuse heterogeneous mixing (the infected are not uniformly mixed throughout the population) with herd immunity.


For example, Feb. 25, 2021 :

Wisconsin saw COVID-19 metrics on Thursday like it hasn’t seen in weeks or months.

The Wisconsin Department of Health Services added 52 deaths to COVID-19′s death toll. It’s the most deaths the DHS added in one day in almost a month... More than half of the deaths (32) were in Jefferson County. We don’t have an explanation yet for that surge in their numbers. Other counties reporting deaths were: Brown, Grant, La Crosse, Marathon, Milwaukee (5), Oneida, Outagamie (2), Racine (5), Rock, Waukesha (2) and Waushara.

The state diagnosed 840 more people infected with the COVID-19 virus. It marks the fourth straight day the state has seen that number rise.

https://www.wbay.com/2021/02/25/wisc...ses-and-tests/

[jono]

CA has their own variant, why not WI?

[timackie]

Will probably need to fly late spring or early summer and based on the states timeline I won’t be vaccinated.

What’s the protocol here? Don a N95 at the door and don’t take it off until I get to the parking lot at my destination? Do I need eye protection?

https://www.cdc.gov/hai/pdfs/ppe/ppe-sequence.pdf

This may be helpful for you, or you may think that I’m crazy and excessive. I think that a barrier gown for a flight is excessive, but the rest of the gear plus a long sleeve shirt is how I would roll if not vaccinated and forced to fly. Don’t touch the mask and wipe down glasses upon arrival. FWIW, I use industrial safety glasses for most patient interactions and add a face shield only if covid is suspect or I’m up in their bidness. Don’t reuse the mask as it will be contaminated and is a potential source of infection. Then get naked and wash your hands like you mean it. Consider drinking until you forget the flight.

[old goat]

From this it appears there were spikes in the COVID deaths following those holidays...

I like how the projected deaths go down even as the actual deaths have started to go up.

[MultiVerse]

Thank you for the response.

What is the effect of the new variants on this thinking?

With the caveat a lot could change between now and a few months from now, the B.1.1.7 variant is 50% more transmissible and should rise rapidly in the coming weeks. Even so, masks and vaccines still work against B.1.1.7. The B.1.351 variant appears capable of reinfecting previously infected but doesn't appear to be more transmissible (and vaccines still work against it) so a lot could change if that variant takes hold in the US and if people also skip vaccination.

I guess I'd be a little concerned about an urgent situation that depends on whether Americans continue to be vigilant against the virus. But if people are still wearing masks and getting vaccinated then things should look better in the coming months than they do now.

[old goat]

https://www.cdc.gov/hai/pdfs/ppe/ppe-sequence.pdf

This may be helpful for you, or you may think that I’m crazy and excessive. I think that a barrier gown for a flight is excessive, but the rest of the gear plus a long sleeve shirt is how I would roll if not vaccinated and forced to fly. Don’t touch the mask and wipe down glasses upon arrival. FWIW, I use industrial safety glasses for most patient interactions and add a face shield only if covid is suspect or I’m up in their bidness. Don’t reuse the mask as it will be contaminated and is a potential source of infection. Then get naked and wash your hands like you mean it. Consider drinking until you forget the flight.

Personally I would use a PAPR if forced to fly.

But seriously, let's talk about gloves. HCW's use gloves which they put on before seeing a patient and take off immediately afterwards. Wash their hands. Then put on a new pair before the next patient. (This for pandemics or when patients have known communicable diseases like MRSA--for ordinary patient care just hand washing.) For the general population wearing gloves makes absolutely zero sense. Gloves are no cleaner than your hands, unless you change them each time you touch anything. Wearing a pair of gloves for a whole trip you would still need to wash them as often as you would wash your hands if you weren't wearing them.

[KQ]

Things are looking good in W2 - only 75 active cases.

Good gawd, just looked at the vaccination phase chart for Washington and people in my age group/health category aren't even listed. All it says is "future phases will be announced in the Summer/Fall."

[char_]

With the caveat a lot could change between now and a few months from now, the B.1.1.7 variant is 50% more transmissible and should rise rapidly in the coming weeks. Even so, masks and vaccines still work against B.1.1.7. The B.1.351 variant appears capable of reinfecting previously infected but doesn't appear to be more transmissible (and vaccines still work against it) so a lot could change if that variant takes hold in the US and if people also skip vaccination.

I guess I'd be a little concerned about an urgent situation that depends on whether Americans continue to be vigilant against the virus. But if people are still wearing masks and getting vaccinated then things should look better in the coming months than they do now.

Thanks. I have the option to drive, but this is a two day drive. Short flights plus a couple nights in a hotel seems preferable.

I’m not in an age group that has a high incidence of serious symptoms, I just don’t want to get it.

[HappyCamper]

I recently asked a small restaurant owner whether they’ve explored an insurance claim, they stated they have prioritized their time to apply for grants and haven’t yet explored the potential for filing a claim. Curious if this is happening anywhere in the US.

Yes, but with mixed results - insurance carriers have denied the claims by restaurants and other businesses for “business interruption” coverage. Courts are agreeing with insurance companies - but not all. Not likely a fast resolution unfortunately.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/co...uits-an-41312/

[bodywhomper]

Yes, but with mixed results - insurance carriers have denied the claims by restaurants and other businesses for “business interruption” coverage. Courts are agreeing with insurance companies - but not all. Not likely a fast resolution unfortunately.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/co...uits-an-41312/

Thx for the response and link. I only have very limited knowledge about what occurred in the UK a month or two ago, and the publicly announced filing by AECOM, which is far from a small biz.

[jono]

Will probably need to fly late spring or early summer and based on the states timeline I won’t be vaccinated.

What’s the protocol here? Don a N95 at the door and don’t take it off until I get to the parking lot at my destination? Do I need eye protection?

$85 and apparently available (lifetime purchase?)

https://narwallmask.com/

If you hook the intake to your seat's overhead air please post pics.

[bodywhomper]

$85 and apparently available (lifetime purchase?)

https://narwallmask.com/

If you hook the intake to your seat's overhead air please post pics.

Holy sheep shit!!

[jono]

It's been a minute since the pic of the Chinese dude wearing a maxipad got all the attention, huh?

[bodywhomper]

Could be extra fun on a powder day!

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[riser4]

I'd buy a Narwall except I wear glasses and I have a beard.

[bigdude2468]

From this it appears there were spikes in the COVID deaths following those holidays...

WI deaths are not reported accurately. County coroners for the most part do not issue death certificates on weekends so deaths get reported early in the week which results in wild swings. Often the State dashboard will show 0 or 1 death on a Sunday and then a big number on Monday / Tuesday. For example

1-9-21 36 deaths
1-10-21 2 deaths
1-16-21 128 deaths
1-17-21 1 death
2-1-21 1 death
2-2-21 48 deaths

Have not figured out to cut & paste the graph for hospitalizations from the WI dashboard but the graph is very steady in a steep decline starting mid November.

[huckbucket]

JNJ vaccine approved.

Here are some current (and interesting) numbers:

It is estimated that there will be 220M doses of MRNA and PFE distributed by April 22 (this includes supply distributed to date)
I personally estimate that the initial demand for vaccination will be around 150 to 170 million Americans (I don't have much to back that up, sorry).
SO demand will continue to outpace supply into the end of April, but it's pretty darn close. After that, we'll be mopping up late adopters and will have excess supply with JNJ in the pipeline (and more MRNA and PFE). Then we turn to variants. Both MRNA and PFE have already submitted their application to the FDA for "boosters" and are projecting to have data by mid-summer. MRNA is exploring a few options;

- variant-specific booster mRNA-1273.351 (against South Afr. variant) at 50µg & lower. Bancel is confident that lower dosing is possible here given prior vaccination for the parent.
- multivalent booster mRNA-1273.211 = mRNA-1273+mRNA-1273.351 in a single vaccine at 50µg dose & lower
- 3rd dose of mRNA-1273 at 50µg dose (dosing already in pts)

Regardless, the message is clear from anyone and everyone with a worthy voice. All three approved vaccines lower infectious event rate, hospitalization and death with minimal safety risk. Get the first shot you can get your hands on.

Notable exception is children. We will not/cannot dose under 16 years of age until trials in those populations conclude. End of the year/beginning of 2022 for children per Fauci.

[jono]

Notable exception is children. We will not/cannot dose under 18 years of age until trials in those populations conclude. End of the year/beginning of 2022 for children per Fauci.

Is there actually a trial underway for children or is that the soonest it could happen if they start one? Can't tell if this is priorities or trying not to state the obvious and hoping a bifurcated strategy plays well with variants.

[bodywhomper]

Is there actually a trial underway for children or is that the soonest it could happen if they start one? Can't tell if this is priorities or trying not to state the obvious and hoping a bifurcated strategy plays well with variants.

According to this article, end of year is optimistic and reliant on success by Pfizer

https://youtu.be/fh1jwDBUUy4

[jerlane]

Is there actually a trial underway for children or is that the soonest it could happen if they start one? Can't tell if this is priorities or trying not to state the obvious and hoping a bifurcated strategy plays well with variants.

I think they are just in the process of starting a trial on younger children in Europe right now. Teen studies are already happening.


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[jerlane]

I think they are just in the process of starting a trial on younger children in Europe right now. Teen studies are already happening.


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https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6532/874


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[neufox47]

Yes, but with mixed results - insurance carriers have denied the claims by restaurants and other businesses for “business interruption” coverage. Courts are agreeing with insurance companies - but not all. Not likely a fast resolution unfortunately.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/co...uits-an-41312/

Yea and those cases that have went in favor of businesses will likely lose on appeal. The US insurance policies typically contain a virus exclusion (which the Missouri judge (federal court) managed to stand on his head and say didn’t apply). Even those that don’t require “physical loss or damage”.

Policies in the UK are worded very differently. Virus exclusions are almost non-existent and many policies explicitly covered loses due to a government authority closing a location due to infectious disease. Because most of the world is insured on UK worded policies many insurers will owe in Europe, Australia, and maybe Asia. Maybe South America and Latin America and who knows in the Middle East and Africa.

Freakonomics covered this in a podcast a bit ago and the Chairman of Lloyd’s of London talked about how the regulatory environment in the US (each state has to approve forms used by admired carriers) kept US carriers from broadening their coverage and likely saved them from owing for most Covid caused Business Interruption losses. I have seen a number of policies that do explicitly respond but those were very expensive endorsements that typically had low sub limits.

We did some back of the napkin calculations and if blanket coverage for Covid losses was extended it would result in the liquidation/ insolvency of virtually every insurer. Then the admitted insurers are backed by the State’s, so your state would suddenly owe businesses tens or hundreds of billions. The insurance industry would completely collapse and it would likely be next to impossible to get any coverage for a period. As almost all mortgages require coverage (or they can place their own coverage) things would get extremely messy.

[wooley12]

And the insurance providers are not collapsing in the Europe model because? Thanks in advance.

[ill-advised strategy]

Presumably people seated are actively eating or drinking.

And yet they continue breathing!