Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[iceman]

In Massachusetts wearing a mask is a legal requirement to enter a business and I'm not seeing any pushback at all around here. Outdoors it's quite rare to see somebody wearing one and I don't either.

[::: :::]

New cases/day is pretty much bumping along in the 10-30k range nationwide and has been in this range for over 2 months.

Steady new cases = a graph of volume of cases steadily increasing, an upward slope

I know you know this, so it’s not a gotcha as much as trying to point at perceptions of the virus progress

[east or bust]

In Arizona, maybe 10% of the population is wearing masks. Couple that with the fact that we're 100% open...

[Benny Profane]

Maybe we're learning why the '18 flu and some others die down in warm weather - people spend much more time outside, and even some small to medium sized social gatherings are much safer. Trump's indoor rallies are going to be a real test.

[rod9301]

Neither one of those graphs is anywhere near correct. New cases/day is pretty much bumping along in the 10-30k range nationwide and has been in this range for over 2 months. There's no real trend up or down on a national basis. Distribution of cases has drastically changed though.

True, but if you take out ny and nj, where the new cases are dramatically lower, the rest of the country is trending up.

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[Ted Striker]

The charts are wrong, but the idea is dead on.

[iceman]

Steady new cases = a graph of volume of cases steadily increasing, an upward slope

I know you know this, so it’s not a gotcha as much as trying to point at perceptions of the virus progress

I do understand it but the y axis of the graphs are labeled "new cases per day" and they don't show that. They don't actually seem to have any grounding in reality at all. Yes the cumulative number of cases is rising in a fashion that's something like the bottom graph.

[::: :::]

I do understand it but the y axis of the graphs are labeled "new cases per day" and they don't show that. They don't actually seem to have any grounding in reality at all. Yes the cumulative number of cases is rising in a fashion that's something like the bottom graph.

what is missing too is the data on "cases resolved per day"
my pretend "volume" graph is increasing if we never account for how many cases drop out of the data table by people getting better
we are still fumbling in the dark to understand this thing and there's a fatigue of it; folks want to just go back to "normal"

[old goat]

what is missing too is the data on "cases resolved per day"
my pretend "volume" graph is increasing if we never account for how many cases drop out of the data table by people getting better
we are still fumbling in the dark to understand this thing and there's a fatigue of it; folks want to just go back to "normal"

I agree. It would be nice for the experts to give us an idea of how many active (ie potentially contagious) cases there are at any given moment. I made a guess earlier but I'm sure someone who knows what they're talking about could do better. The number of active cases circulating in public is what drives the rate of spread, not the total number of cases. One problem is that it isn't clear how long people stay infected and potentially infectious and it seems to vary a lot. People we know were testing positive for over a month.

[MultiVerse]

There was question asked earlier about whether masks creates a "false sense of security" causing people to let their guard down in other ways. A new study says seeing someone in a mask is a reminder to social distance and even wearing one is a reminder to social distance. Masks change human behavior in a way that is safer, while counter-intuitively not wearing a mask drew people closer together even at the height of the pandemic:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf


Along those lines, when considering the entire population in an area, urban BLM protests increased social distancing resulting in a net decrease of the spread of SARS2 relative to areas without protests. The most visible portion of the population is not always the primary driver of the outcome of interest:

https://cheps.sdsu.edu/docs/CHEPS-Wo...ne-12-2020.pdf

[Benny Profane]

There was question asked earlier about whether masks creates a "false sense of security" causing people to let their guard down in other ways. A new study says seeing someone in a mask is a reminder to social distance and even wearing one is a reminder to social distance. Masks change human behavior in a way that is safer, while counter-intuitively not wearing a mask drew people closer together even at the height of the pandemic:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf


Along those lines, when considering the entire population in an area, urban BLM protests increased social distancing resulting in a net decreasing of the spread of SARS2 relative to areas without protests. The most visible portion of the population is not always the primary driver of the outcome of interest:

https://cheps.sdsu.edu/docs/CHEPS-Wo...ne-12-2020.pdf

I walked into a small cafe the other day and a woman came in a few minutes after me basically shouting at everyone through her mask. Just, generally, a loud and Gabby person. To me, that just defeats the whole purpose. STFU or tone it down.

[MultiVerse]

^ Yeah, when running or riding people have been really good about giving other people room to pass on a trail but inevitably they give a loud boisterous greeting or if they have dogs with them they shout at the dogs running up to greet a stranger which kinda defeats social distancing. None of it bothers me because I'm not concerned about fleeting encounters outdoors, but it's amusing and illustrates safety measures are always going to be imperfectly adopted. A measure doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be good enough.

[splat]

Benny -
I do believe that's the exact purpose for masks - spit talkers and mouth breathers. They're not a fashion accessory.

[Ted Striker]

In Seattle proper and the tony suburbs, mask wearing is the norm. Social distancing, gating access to stores, PPE, directional aisles, people are making an effort.

But once one goes North of Edmonds, the mask usage drops dramatically. In rural Snohomish and Whatcom counties, it's Corona -what?

Did you jump over Skagit County Dukes of Hazard style?


Snohomish doesn't look good.



Up here in Whatcom it's a mixed bag. Responsible behavior doesn't seem to be following urban/rural, political, or age group lines (except gender). Women are generally doing it better. Very few people are walking around outside wearing a mask, yet when picking up food/beer/etc curbside many are. But indoors still isn't at 100% compliance. The BLM rally that 1 out of every 10 people in B'ham attended will definitely cause a spike, as did Easter, Mother's Day, and Memorial Day.

We're only just starting "phase 2" and many businesses haven't opened yet, so the canary's fate is still unknown, but the ones that are taking it seriously are doing it right. Others simply unlocked the door and flipped the light switch.

In the win column, there are two women in town making masks and giving them away for free.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

I think Buster really meant Cascappalachia, which might as well be West Virginia.


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[Ted Striker]

There was question asked earlier about whether masks creates a "false sense of security" causing people to let their guard down in other ways. A new study says seeing someone in a mask is a reminder to social distance and even wearing one is a reminder to social distance. Masks change human behavior in a way that is safer, while counter-intuitively not wearing a mask drew people closer together even at the height of the pandemic:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf

Thanks for that. I've been saying that wearing a mask is a social signal as much as anything else. Even if a person questions the efficacy of it, they should wear one as a show of 'hey, I give a shit about you'.

[old goat]

^ A measure doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be good enough.

worth repeating. A measure doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be good enough.

[KQ]

Thanks for that. I've been saying that wearing a mask is a social signal as much as anything else. Even if a person questions the efficacy of it, they should wear one as a show of 'hey, I give a shit about you'.

It still surprises me the snickers and snerks I get from non-mask wearing people.

I have a friend who runs a rather big farm stand. Really sweet caring person. She and her family are always posting pics on their business FB page and never do you see any social distancing or masks in the photos. It's totally weird. They are staunch Adventist and maybe they think they've got the Jesus protection thing going on. I've never said anything to her and have resisted replying to her posts with a question about masks etc. instead I've decided to just stay away from their farm stand esp. since I know someone in their circle of friends had Covid. Maybe they think it makes for better pics sans masks but if that is their reasoning it sends the wrong message IMO.

[Benny Profane]

Benny -
I do believe that's the exact purpose for masks - spit talkers and mouth breathers. They're not a fashion accessory.

From what I understand, they aren't perfect, either transmitting viruses or protecting somebody from them. And shouting in a small room has to definitely increase the ability to spread junk. Shhhh...

[old goat]

From what I understand, they aren't perfect, either transmitting viruses or protecting somebody from them. And shouting in a small room has to definitely increase the ability to spread junk. Shhhh...

Shouting in a small room is obnoxious virus or no virus.

[hutash]

From what I understand, they aren't perfect, either transmitting viruses or protecting somebody from them. And shouting in a small room has to definitely increase the ability to spread junk. Shhhh...

Don't let perfect get in the way of good. Sure it would be better if she STFU, but you are better off with her in a mask then without regardless of her loud mouth.

[hutash]

worth repeating. A measure doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be good enough.

Apparently this needs to be repeated again, for Benny's benefit.

[spanghew]

It still surprises me the snickers and snerks I get from non-mask wearing people.

I have a friend who runs a rather big farm stand. Really sweet caring person. She and her family are always posting pics on their business FB page and never do you see any social distancing or masks in the photos. It's totally weird. They are staunch Adventist and maybe they think they've got the Jesus protection thing going on. I've never said anything to her and have resisted replying to her posts with a question about masks etc. instead I've decided to just stay away from their farm stand esp. since I know someone in their circle of friends had Covid. Maybe they think it makes for better pics sans masks but if that is their reasoning it sends the wrong message IMO.

Klickers?


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[XXX-er]

It sounds like the decision to use a mask is politcal down thar ?

[KQ]

Klickers?

Frog Hollow Farm. Great place. Great people. I highly recommend them. They've had a tough year so far - were hit by floods not once but twice (the second time shortly after they had reclaimed their fields from all the river rock and dead heads the river had deposited). I think they'll pull out of this just fine as they have a huge following.

It sounds like the decision to use a mask is politcal down thar ?

Was that directed to me? Yes we are a purple county split pretty much down the middle. LOTS of Trump supporters and a good share of anti-vaxxer/chemtrail types. I've never had anyone say anything to me about wearing a mask but my friend who is a local contractor has had friends mask shame him.

I would say mask compliance is probably at 50% possibly higher. Sometiimes I go to the store and everyone is wearing a mask. Other times I'm close to the only one. It's kinda wierd. At HD yesterday there was a group of people standing around just outside the entrance catching up, gabbing about this and that. No SD. No masks. Group of about 8.