Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[CarlMega]

EDWARDS – A customer at a Colorado grocery store was cited on suspicion of intentionally coughing on another shopper’s items after refusing to comply with social distancing rules, authorities said.

Nathan Herries, 51, of Vail refused to follow a request by an employee at the Village Market in Edwards to stay 6 feet away from customers and employees as required by the store and a county health order, the Eagle County Sheriff’s Office said Monday.

He ranted that the worker was falling for media hype about the coronavirus before getting between a customer and an employee and coughing on the products the other customer was buying, the office said.

Herries was later identified by an anonymous tipster after the Sheriff’s Office shared surveillance images on social media, the office said. He was issued a summons for violating a public health order, disorderly conduct and tampering. He was not arrested.

Herries on Tuesday denied coughing at the store, although he said he may have “breathed hard once as a joke like a teenager might do” after he refused a cashier’s request to step back. Herries believes the virus is similar to the common cold and is part of a “plandemic” by global central bankers to collapse the United States’ currency and bring about a one world government.

He said he thought the one-way aisles in the store and the plastic barriers protecting cashiers were unnecessary overreactions.

“I feel like I am living in the world of absurdity,” Herries said.

For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe life-threatening illness, including pneumonia, and death.

[riser4]

Oh my God. We're going to die.

[Benny Profane]

Well, you know, Vail. Shutdown Vail. Weird.

[Mofro261]

What about the tests?

testy testaments to tardy tests requests.

Tests: Direct Methods- actual detection of live virus (culture), detection of viral nucleic acids (rtPCR), detection of viral proteins (Antigen detection). Antigen detection requires generation of an antibody that will bind a virus target protein within a bodily fluid/tissue. These will take a bit longer due to how the targeting antibodies are generated.

Indirect Methods- these are surrogate markers for infection- Antibody assays IgM/ IgG/IgA. IgM antibodies are a marker of recent infection and fade (generally) fast with time. IgG antibodies are usually long lasting but often do not distinguish current infection from past infection with the same infectious agent. IgA are mucosal antibodies and are (generally) short lived. Cytokine/host marker profiles- elevated /altered cirulating signaling molecules may define a disease state. Indirect assays can also measure host metabolite changes, volatile organic compounds etc.

Interesting run down on all the available tests options by the data geeks at 538 fwiw

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ovid-19-tests/

That sum things up accurately. One can look at which tests have been grant FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)
here https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/...ons#covid19ivd so see which tests have EUA approval. Several where I work should be added to this list by the end of the week.

So far there are 4 antibody tests on the list, 2 are rapid/ what is known as lateral flow assay format and 2 are lab based ELISA format. ELISA is usually more sensitive but takes ~3-4 hours to run with incubation times. Rapid may be completed in as little as 5-15 minutes but lacks sensitivity at lower antibody levels.

Testing- sensitivity (true pos- false negatives) and specificity (true negatives- false positives) of the assay are what drives accuracy of a test.

Now how do we test and who? First, we need to compare a test against known positives by another metric (rtPCR or culture) to determine how sensitive it is within a disease population. We test against known negatives to determine specificity.

But how we select even these populations can skew sensitivity/ specificity. For instance, antibody (again generally) takes 7-10 days to arise post infection or onset of symptoms. rtPCR is more likely to be positive when viral load is higher and begins to decrease around day 10. So antibody tests on people who are between day 0-10 onset of symptoms are more likely to be rtPCR+ and Ab(-) during this time. After day15, most patients will convert to antibody positive but may now be rtPCR negative.

So if we derive sensitivity after day10, the numbers will be higher >95%, than studies when earlier time point samples are included as well.

For specificity, population context is meaningful. Are we testing samples in an area where disease is endemic or non-endemic? Are we testing against other diseases with similar signs and symptoms? Are we testing against related viral infections? The specificity in these populations may be very different.

Serosurveilence requires at least modest sensitivity but very high specificity and is tied to overall prevelance. When prevelence is low say <5%, specificity must be very high and sampling size must be large otherwise the error in the false positive rate becomes large.

[CarlMega]

Oh my God. We're going to die.

I know right? As soon as those global central bankers get their one world government, shit is really going to hit the fan.

[KQ]

I was just thinking about the brotherhood and whether their trip was canceled this year due to the virus. Too bad it wasn't. Shit.

The New Yorker wrote about it at the beginning of month.

Why an Idaho Ski Destination Has One of the Highest COVID-19 Infection Rates in the Nation



Really glad Inslee shut down the state before Spring Release weekend in W2. Could have been a bad game changer for us had people gone through with plans to descend on the valley for wine tasting.

Oh my God. We're going to die.

It's not looking good............

Coronavirus can lead to kidney damage.

[Core Shot]

My wife’s sister just sent this to her from her doctor. I knew they were anti vax but damn this dude has a following I never realized. He utilizes the Santa Clara study of course to say it’s not much worse than flu.

Guys like this are pretty dangerous. MD with Ivy League school.


https://youtu.be/mgXqw0QDXa8

Took me a while to get used to a pediatrician in a Hawaiian shirt.
But he ain’t that nutter. Unless you truly think vitamin c and vitamin d are nutters.

Colloidal silver has been used for centuries. I’ve used it for sinus issues.
Didn’t realize it was available to be used in a nebulizer.

The melatonin angle for immunity was new to me.

Homeopathy used to be a thing. But big pharma hates it because the margins are thin.

YMMV.

[CarlMega]

Homeopathy used to be a thing. But big pharma hates it because the margins are thin.

Thanks for reminding us that you're a nutty anti-vaxxer loon. Now fuck off.

[Core Shot]

Thanks for reminding us that you're a nutty anti-vaxxer loon. Now fuck off.

Bend over and take it in the ass like an obedient serf

[CarlMega]

Bend over and take it in the ass like an obedient serf

Oh my! that came naturally and quick! You spend time in the navy? You can tell me, no secrets between sailors.

[Ted Striker]

Oh my God. We're going to die.

Indisputably yes.

[Core Shot]

At the end of his life, Pasteur is said to have recognized the importance of what Bernard had been trying to tell him, remarking, “Bernard avait raison. Le germ n’est rien, c’est le terrain qui est tout.”

My wife’s sister just sent this to her from her doctor. I knew they were anti vax but damn this dude has a following I never realized. He utilizes the Santa Clara study of course to say it’s not much worse than flu.

Guys like this are pretty dangerous. MD with Ivy League school.


https://youtu.be/mgXqw0QDXa8

Weird. Claude Bernard references in both.

Louis Pasteur is a hero.
But today we do know more about the biome.

Bernard and Pasteur can coexist.

[klauss]

I regret giving that guy a view. I hope he keeps the views low or he could kill tens of thousands of people

Yeah, he's apparently got a huge following and right here in our backyard. Guys like this, an actual MD from a respected school, and to a lesser extent the "Dr." Shiva nut that went to MIT and got a Phd and claims to have invented email, are dangerous. And attract the kooks

[Lvovsky]

Listened to some doctor/virologist dude on NPR yesterday during a risky grocery run. It didn't sound good on getting to the level of accurate testing needed to open things up. maybe by June they will be less than half way to where this doctor thinks things need to be on the testing level. Lots of bottle necks.
Not enough people to run the tests.
Not enough people perform the tests.
Not enough people to read the tests.
Not enough tests being produced. Don't ask about the vaccine thingy. That sounded depressing.

The real problem is that there is no unified strategy for the country. There is no thinking ten steps ahead. There are 50 states playing checkers the best they can.

[huckbucket]

My wife’s sister just sent this to her from her doctor. I knew they were anti vax but damn this dude has a following I never realized. He utilizes the Santa Clara study of course to say it’s not much worse than flu.

Guys like this are pretty dangerous. MD with Ivy League school.


https://youtu.be/mgXqw0QDXa8

I fully expect to get that link from my mother in the next week.

[Lvovsky]

The greatest example of Darwinism in the human race to date? Low IQ people are gonna go about their business and die off in droves and those who use their brains are gonna continue to social distance and display self control? Isn't that what's happening here?

the jackasses already procreated probably so no darwinism unfortunately

[KQ]

Yeah, he's apparently got a huge following and right here in our backyard. Guys like this, an actual MD from a respected school, and to a lesser extent the "Dr." Shiva nut that went to MIT and got a Phd and claims to have invented email, are dangerous. And attract the kooks

Quackwatch

[Core Shot]

Quackwatch

Wow. That guy is a hell of a swimmer.
But an MD shrink? The least sciency of all MDs.
his CV screams of narcissism.
And he thinks chiropractic is quackery.
Chiropractors don’t cure cancer but they have their place.

[mcski]

Tonight’s FRONTLINE episode on PBS is on the progress status for development of the Cofeve vaccine. Should be interesting

[klauss]

Hi Boise


https://www.facebook.com/sherry.dean...9858541686982/

[Lvovsky]

I for one welcome our new global central bankers world government overlords.

[huckbucket]

Hi Boise


https://www.facebook.com/sherry.dean...9858541686982/

file under "people are stupid"

[Rideski]

Why I might skip ventilator option if it comes down to it
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-long-recovery

[Core Shot]

Why I might skip ventilator option if it comes down to it
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-long-recovery

Hopefully if you get hospitalized they are able to high flow oxygen. No one wants a vent. Holding off on ventilators is the current consensus.
You’re fucking drugged up and paralyzed. And flipped over several times a day like a rotisserie pig.

If you have elder parents or grandparents, DNR is not the same as DNI.

[Tippster]

Took me a while to get used to a pediatrician in a Hawaiian shirt.
But he ain’t that nutter. Unless you truly think vitamin c and vitamin d are nutters.

They are if you think they'll cure anything. There are also many different degrees of Vitamin absorption - IE. for Vitamin D simply exposing skin to sunlight is far more effective than taking a supplement in pill form.

Colloidal silver has been used for centuries. I’ve used it for sinus issues.

We used to use Cocaine in cough syrup. Your point escapes me. Do you burn a lot of sage?

The melatonin angle for immunity was new to me.

The actual medical community agrees with you since there is no known benefit other than possible restlessness mediation for oral intake of melatonin.

Homeopathy used to be a thing. But big pharma hates it because the margins are thin.

Bloodletting used to be a thing too. Stop being a moron.