Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[hutash]

While I don't disagree with that piece, he leaves open some real scary possibilities. While Omicron is likely to leave us with a reasonable immunity and new variants are likely to be less virulent, there is still a real significant chance that it all goes south again. The next variant could be (but
"probably" won't be) really nasty. Again, only time will tell, so instead of sound the all clear sign we need to stay vigilant for both the short term and long term. Trump could have been right, as might you, but if we assume you are and let down our guard, as we did spring of '20, we could be in for bigger problems.

[Benny Profane]

Why do you think you are such an expert?

In my field, I am involved with people from both worlds and I think you are wrong regarding the majority (no doubt a few isolated examples can be found to support your opinion.)

So, you're trying to tell me that, to be successful and survive in academia requires the same approach and defenses as working in the private sector? To start, there is no tenure in real life.

[altasnob]

Any kind of COVID laws, rules, restrictions should exactly match COVID cases in real time. So I don't see any harm in lifting all restrictions and laws when cases plummet in a couple weeks. It's unlikely that any new COVID variant emerges from the wealthy, highly vaccinated world. If it comes, it is likely coming from the poor, unvaccinated world. Cautious optimism is the perfect term to summarize how we should go forward. Let society get back to normal when new cases fall. But warn the public that the good times might not last forever.

[::: :::]

Any kind of COVID laws, rules, restrictions should exactly match COVID cases in real time.

only someone posting on the internet could think it's that easy

[The AD]

While Omicron is likely to leave us with a reasonable immunity and new variants are likely to be less virulent, there is still a real significant chance that it all goes south again. The next variant could be (but "probably" won't be) really nasty. Again, only time will tell, so instead of sound the all clear sign we need to stay vigilant for both the short term and long term. Trump could have been right, as might you, but if we assume you are and let down our guard, as we did spring of '20, we could be in for bigger problems.

Yeah, considering mutation is random viruses are unpredictable by nature.

[::: :::]

So, you're trying to tell me that, to be successful and survive in academia requires the same approach and defenses as working in the private sector? To start, there is no tenure in real life.

according to this link, tenure only exists for a quarter of university teaching staff

https://www.newfacultymajority.info/...bout-adjuncts/
[i can't vouch for the link per se, but it came up fairly quickly in the search...]

[Benny Profane]

according to this link, tenure only exists for a quarter of university teaching staff

https://www.newfacultymajority.info/...bout-adjuncts/
[i can't vouch for the link per se, but it came up fairly quickly in the search...]

I didn't say everybody has it, but, I can pretty much assure that most everyone aspires to it. Wouldn't you? So, saying and doing the wrong things is pretty dumb pre tenure, and, who knows, these days if you use the wrong word for a confused gender student, after.

[altasnob]

Yeah, considering mutation is random viruses are unpredictable by nature.

But statistically speaking, it is highly unlikely that any new variant comes from the wealthy, vaccinated world, where nearly 100% of immunocomprised individuals (where variants most likley will come from) are vaccinated. Statistically speaking, it is much more likely that a new variant comes from the poor, unvacinated world, where 3 billion people have had no shots and only ten percent have received at least one shot.

That's why the best way the wealthy world can prevent new variants is not endlessly debating trivial things like vaccine passports to sports ball games and whether bar fly John Stockton should be banned from his alma matter for not wearing a mask, and instead focus all their efforts on getting the poor countries vaccinated. But no one cares about this and politicians only care about what the people care about.

[altasnob]

only someone posting on the internet could think it's that easy

It is that easy, just not in the US with our entrenched partisanship. Here's a good article on why Japan has fared so well, written by the guy who came up with Japan's COVID strategy. No lock downs, no shut schools, no mandates, no vaccine passports, not mask rules. Instead, a very basic concept: People should avoid the three C’s, which are closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings. All voluntary, and it is have proven to work:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/o...pan-covid.html

[The AD]

But statistically speaking, it is highly unlikely that any new variant comes from the wealthy, vaccinated world, where nearly 100% of immunocomprised individuals (where variants most likley will come from) are vaccinated. Statistically speaking, it is much more likely that a new variant comes from the poor, unvacinated world, where 3 billion people have had no shots and only ten percent have received at least one shot.

That's why the best way the wealthy world can prevent new variants is not endlessly debating trivial things like vaccine passports to sports ball games and whether bar fly John Stockton should be banned from his alma matter for not wearing a mask, and instead focus all their efforts on getting the poor countries vaccinated. But no one cares about this and politicians only care about what the people care about.

Why can't we do both? You act like this is some kind of zero sum game.

[altasnob]

Because we spend resources worrying about our own population rather than worry about Africa's population. The money we are spending on testing, sending free tests and masks to people, should all be going to Africa to get them vaccinated as quickly as possible. All the stimulus and bail out money we spend would be better spent getting Africa vaccinated. This problem should be front page of every paper in America, every single day. Instead, it occasionally rears it's head buried deep down on the NYTimes. The WHO is screaming to help Africa and it appears to me world leaders are ignoring the cries. It's the gated Beverly Hills conundrum. The wealthy world feels safe behind their closed gates with their top of the line vaccine, so fuck the rest of the world.

[The AD]

Because we spend resources worrying about our own population rather than worry about Africa's population. The money we are spending on testing, sending free tests and masks to people, should all be going to Africa to get them vaccinated as quickly as possible. All the stimulus and bail out money we spend would be better spent getting Africa vaccinated.

Fair enough. You should have said that in the first place rather than mentioning John Stockton or requiring vaccines to get into sporting events.

[Percy Rideout]

Because we spend resources worrying about our own population rather than worry about Africa's population. The money we are spending on testing, sending free tests and masks to people, should all be going to Africa to get them vaccinated as quickly as possible. All the stimulus and bail out money we spend would be better spent getting Africa vaccinated. This problem should be front page of every paper in America, every single day. Instead, it occasionally rears it's head buried deep down on the NYTimes. The WHO is screaming to help Africa and it appears to me world leaders are ignoring the cries. It's the gated Beverly Hills conundrum. The wealthy world feels safe behind their closed gates with their top of the line vaccine, so fuck the rest of the world.

We talk about reservoirs for potential variants for 200+ pages and our global vaccine rollout 2+ years after the start of the pandemic is.............(fill in the blank)

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-c...ut-and-access/

Looking at the globe, I'm pleasantly surprised by the high vaccination rates in South America. Africa on the other hand...

Meanwhile the WHO is begging for help daily and we barely see it in the news.

[The AD]

Over 60% of the world's population has now received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. Is that bad? I agree it could be better, but that doesn't seem terrible to me. More than ten billion doses have been administered worldwide even with a significant proportion of people being vaccine hesitant. There are lots of counties in the U.S. that are still less than 50% vaxxed. That's a significant problem, too.

[bennymac]

Yes more should be done to help other countries get vaccinated.

Why this has to come at the cost of reducing testing/access to free tests is where you and Ass are wrong.

[SumJongGuy]

So tell me again how we are supposed to be helping third world nations halfway around the globe the globe when we can't even get 90% of our own citizens to agree to take the vaccines? We're not exactly leading by example.. And this is coming from the same crowd who screams that we shouldn't be helping other countries when we have our own homeless and disabled veterans who need the assistance more..

Pretty rich LOL! Also, isn't capitalism supposed to be the perfect system and 'Murikan way? Shouldn't it be Big Pharm that handles all that philanthropy? What's stopping them??

[ex-powderbroker]

So tell me again how we are supposed to be helping third world nations halfway around the globe the globe when we can't even get 90% of our own citizens to agree to take the vaccines?

We give them vaccines and the smart people take them. Doesn't it handle itself?

[::: :::]

It is that easy, just not in the US with our entrenched partisanship. Here's a good article on why Japan has fared so well, written by the guy who came up with Japan's COVID strategy. No lock downs, no shut schools, no mandates, no vaccine passports, not mask rules. Instead, a very basic concept: People should avoid the three C’s, which are closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings. All voluntary, and it is have proven to work:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/o...pan-covid.html

"People should..."

We haven't demonstrated that we can take care of our own house, and you think we can affect others? Or that we having standing to tell others how it's done?

I understand the interest in moving on, but we aren't there yet.

[SumJongGuy]

We give them vaccines and the smart people take them. Doesn't it handle itself?

[SumJongGuy]

So, you're trying to tell me that, to be successful and survive in academia requires the same approach and defenses as working in the private sector? To start, there is no tenure in real life.

Golden parachutes and stock options are the private sector version of tenure..

[hutash]

A lot is being done by other countries and the US to get third world vaccines. Enough, probably not near enough. but still a lot. Would stopping testing, free masks, et al, free enough money to solve "the Africa problem"? I doubt.

Not to make it political, but the pandemic response certainly political.

Solving the vaccine issue in other country is foreign aid. Is it beneficial to us? Sure, but which political party has fought foreign aid, in just about any form, excepting anything military?

[KQ]

Whatched a re-run of Castle last night where someone was planning on releasing a highly contagious variant of the H1N1 virus. The police chief exclaimed: "Do you know what the could do? It could start an epidemic!"

I stared at the TV thinking "that's just crazy talk"

[huckbucket]

It is that easy, just not in the US with our entrenched partisanship. Here's a good article on why Japan has fared so well, written by the guy who came up with Japan's COVID strategy. No lock downs, no shut schools, no mandates, no vaccine passports, not mask rules. Instead, a very basic concept: People should avoid the three C’s, which are closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings. All voluntary, and it is have proven to work:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/o...pan-covid.html

I'm sure it's mentioned in the article (paywalled) but NOT mentioned in your summary that Japan is ~80% vaxxed, people wear masks literally everywhere they go and they tightly control their borders and enforce quarantines for people coming in. Conveniently missed by you.

[jono]

For the cockapoos who can't be bothered to do their own research, read this before any more whining about a lack of American efforts to vaccinate the world:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corbevax

[LongShortLong]

Of course. Who do you think the world leaders are? But I don't want retired Old Goat to be the same guarded doctor as practicing Old Goat. I want you to spill your guts. This place (TGR) is the comment section after that NYTimes op-ed. Where the dirt comes out.

We're talking about COVID being done (for at least the next six months). What scientist is not thinking this right now? But they aren't 100% sure so they are keeping their mouth shut. That is where Benny and I come in. We don't care if we're wrong.

All the scientists not wearing the rose-colored blinders. Probably most scientists looking at the data disagree. As you reported upthread, UK cases are falling 46% every two weeks. Current case 7 day average rate there is 135/100k daily cases. If we project that forward 6 weeks to early March, UK will see about 20/100k daily cases. Health officials in my area use 10/100k as the maximum restrictions threshold (threat level purple). By that metric, UK will still have an extraordinarily high rate of Covid infections in 6 weeks.

Also worth noting that since BoJo's outburst, UK cases are no longer falling. Could be a meaningless blip in the downward trend, too early to tell. I think the death and injury rates remain too high to call this over, but that's my value judgment.