Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[tetzen]

J&J says it will have 20 million doses through March and 100 million doses through June 2021 delivered. Seems like it's on track to put 25 million/month out. That will be a nice boost to numbers.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-...lobal-pandemic

[old goat]

And yet they continue breathing!

Not if they eat at Trini and Carmen's near Pontiac MI. 58 botulism cases. That was in 1977 but they're still in business.

[tetzen]

Minor complaint today regarding what I am assuming is a local change due to Covid. There is a fish hatchery nearby that I occasionally visit with some open pools that have monster trout in them. These trout are as big as my leg. The trout have gotten so large because nearby there's a dispenser that you can buy a large handful of fish pellet food for a quarter. Went there as recently as last April and fed the fish while having a nice time relaxing outside under the initial Covid lockdown.

I was driving by today and decided to visit again. I came up to the pool with the dispenser and the food pellet machine was gone. I've known this thing has been there for years, anchored into the brick wall. My assumption is the local authorities removed it because they were worried about a shared use of it being a vector for Covid spread. I'm not 100% on this, but if so, seems like an overreaction to this damn disease. Feeling mildly annoyed by it all today.

[MakersTeleMark]

Your annoyed because you can't feed some caged fish? Go feed some pigeons. Jebus.

[neufox47]

And the insurance providers are not collapsing in the Europe model because? Thanks in advance.

The first ruling was barely a month ago, barely any money has been paid out. Everything else is still TBD. Depending on the extent and terms of the rest of the rulings we may see insurance companies start to become insolvent. At least 370,000 potential BI claims in the UK. If each of them are worth an average of $100,000 that’s $37,000,000,000. US economy is about 8 times bigger. The entire insurance industry has about $2T of assets.

The modern reinsurance industry means companies almost all share in the risk. Which means the industry can absorb massive blows until the whole thing collapses. Insurance has long been seen as a relatively stable investment that doesn’t correlate to stock performance, so lots of pension funds, fixed income, etc have reinsurance exposure. It’s not my area but a payout across the major economies could easily lead to a collapse that looks like a repeat of 08.

That said I get paid to handle the claims - it’ll work out great for me, so burn it down I guess?

[ill-advised strategy]

Not if they eat at Trini and Carmen's near Pontiac MI. 58 botulism cases. That was in 1977 but they're still in business.

Well, yeah...that’s one of many reasons I always pack plenty of tater tots in my cargo pants if I have to go downstate.

[ill-advised strategy]

Your annoyed because you can't feed some caged fish? Go feed some pigeons. Jebus.

That’s one of many reasons I always pack plenty of fish pellets in my cargo pants when I go to the fish park.

[old goat]

Most likely they removed the fish food dispenser because the fish were getting too fat which makes them much more likely to die of Covid.

[bodywhomper]

The first ruling was barely a month ago, barely any money has been paid out. Everything else is still TBD. Depending on the extent and terms of the rest of the rulings we may see insurance companies start to become insolvent. At least 370,000 potential BI claims in the UK. If each of them are worth an average of $100,000 that’s $37,000,000,000. US economy is about 8 times bigger. The entire insurance industry has about $2T of assets.

The modern reinsurance industry means companies almost all share in the risk. Which means the industry can absorb massive blows until the whole thing collapses. Insurance has long been seen as a relatively stable investment that doesn’t correlate to stock performance, so lots of pension funds, fixed income, etc have reinsurance exposure. It’s not my area but a payout across the major economies could easily lead to a collapse that looks like a repeat of 08.

That said I get paid to handle the claims - it’ll work out great for me, so burn it down I guess?

Thx for the additional details!

Good times ahead.

[bigdude2468]

And yet the virus still surges in Wisconsin. Don't confuse heterogeneous mixing (the infected are not uniformly mixed throughout the population) with herd immunity.


For example, Feb. 25, 2021 :

Wisconsin saw COVID-19 metrics on Thursday like it hasn’t seen in weeks or months.

The Wisconsin Department of Health Services added 52 deaths to COVID-19′s death toll. It’s the most deaths the DHS added in one day in almost a month... More than half of the deaths (32) were in Jefferson County. We don’t have an explanation yet for that surge in their numbers. Other counties reporting deaths were: Brown, Grant, La Crosse, Marathon, Milwaukee (5), Oneida, Outagamie (2), Racine (5), Rock, Waukesha (2) and Waushara.



The state diagnosed 840 more people infected with the COVID-19 virus. It marks the fourth straight day the state has seen that number rise.

https://www.wbay.com/2021/02/25/wisc...ses-and-tests/

As I said before the deaths as reported by the WI Dept of Health is unreliable on a daily basis. BTW, nice cherry picking the highest number of deaths (52) in over a month. 52 deaths were reported on February 25th. Let's look the at the number of deaths for the four previous days and the three days after the 25th.

0
0
33
25
52
5
0
0

Eight day average of 14 deaths per day.

[tetzen]

Most likely they removed the fish food dispenser because the fish were getting too fat which makes them much more likely to die of Covid.

Who knew that fish could get obese? I suppose it's like fattening the veal. I'm surprised some enterprising local hasn't come and snagged one these miniature whales out of the little pool they're in.

[splat]

Things are looking good in W2 - only 75 active cases.

Good gawd, just looked at the vaccination phase chart for Washington and people in my age group/health category aren't even listed. All it says is "future phases will be announced in the Summer/Fall."

I can drive over to SF and get vaccinated in a heartbeat, using my friend's address.
Here, I'm over 65 and waiting...

[Timberridge]

I can drive over to SF and get vaccinated in a heartbeat, using my friend's address.
Here, I'm over 65 and waiting...

Yeah but legally can he play blackjack and hire hookers?

Priorities.

[splat]

Yeah but legally can he play blackjack and hire hookers?

Priorities.

Since the economy went down the toilet, we just play blackjack for hookers now.
Alternative currency

[MultiVerse]

Eight day average of 14 deaths per day.

I snipped your post because the point wasn't a high death toll on a particular day, the point is the virus still spreads in Wisconsin.

Even though Wisconsin is back to September levels of cases and deaths that just means the spike is the story, not the decline. That's not the same thing as herd immunity. The virus is still active in Wisconsin.

The good news is the future looks good for Wisconsin because cases and deaths will fall further faster thanks to vaccines.

[bodywhomper]

I just learned that WI has 8-day weeks. I was always a little suspicious.

[Timberridge]

I just learned that WI has 8-day weeks. I was always a little suspicious.

[skaredshtles]

I just learned that WI has 8-day weeks. I was always a little suspicious.

Maths are hard.

[LongShortLong]

Can anyone explain me the logic of wearing a mask when standing, but you can take it off when seated? Same air, same aerosols.
What possible basis exists for that seated/standing logic? It’s about breathing the same air, what about being seated stops you from breathing?

Same logic that keeps non-essential businesses open during a pandemic. A large portion of the country does not care if you die or become disabled. Some don't care if same happens to themselves. Didn't Fauci or CDC recently admit the strategy has been to keep the rate of dying below the rate hospitals can provide care? (maximize herd stupidity without pushing the death rate absurdly high) CDC also updated its guidance to include grocery stores as a common source of transmission, something obvious from the start.

Advisors can stray only a little from the politicians who appoint them. Politicians can stray only a little from the voters and campaign donors. Seated/standing masking policy is a fig leaf. The enemy is us.

I’m so sick of the bullshit

Several countries to the west have figured this out. NZ may have the best combination of mountains and acceptable governance. And ski season begins in a few months.

[BmillsSkier]

Since the economy went down the toilet, we just play blackjack for hookers now.
Alternative currency

Must be harder to stack than chips, but hey.

[old goat]

Who knew that fish could get obese? I suppose it's like fattening the veal. I'm surprised some enterprising local hasn't come and snagged one these miniature whales out of the little pool they're in.

Another place I used to go with giant fish--the Sinks of the Popo Agie River outside Lander WY--the river goes underground and remerges a few hundred yards downstream and there were monster trout in the pool where it emerges. Wonder if it's still like that--it's been a long time.

[PB]

Who knew that fish could get obese? I suppose it's like fattening the veal. I'm surprised some enterprising local hasn't come and snagged one these miniature whales out of the little pool they're in.

Oh, I'm sure it's been tried/done. Speaking of whaley fish, in my previous incarnation I worked a lot with sturgeon: caught some thieves trying to steal one of our research broodstock. After about three steps running away with their prize, fish goes nuts and beats them to a pulp. No way they were going to get it over the security fence anyway.

[bigdude2468]

I just learned that WI has 8-day weeks. I was always a little suspicious.

No reference made to a weekly count, average deaths per day.

Guess what, WI reported zero deaths today. I can just about guarantee that tomorrow the deaths will be 30 plus because they don't get reported accurately on weekends. Coroners will get them out today and they will show up tomorrow.

[bodywhomper]

Eight day average of 14 deaths per day.

No reference made to a weekly count, average deaths per day.

You described an 8-day average. I thought that was weird and funny. it should be solely reserved for holding and loving and nothing else.

[tetzen]

Oh, I'm sure it's been tried/done. Speaking of whaley fish, in my previous incarnation I worked a lot with sturgeon: caught some thieves trying to steal one of our research broodstock. After about three steps running away with their prize, fish goes nuts and beats them to a pulp. No way they were going to get it over the security fence anyway.

I can only imagine the process by which a fish out of water kicked the shit out that thief.