Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[bodywhomper]

I now know 2 peeps that likely got infected recently while wearing kn95 masks. One while traveling by plane and one either at the grocery or the hardware store. Both aware of the concept of mask fit. There’s potential that they caught it outdoors, but have generally been avoiding crowded outdoor areas. The traveler took 4 days of feeling sick before testing positive on a pcr or a RAT; they’d tested using both several times earlier, and they are is still testing positive on day 11 since first positive test - that’s 15 days since symptom onset and still getting (+) on RAT. Also still very fatigued.

[cat in january]

Just added some 3m n95 masks to my Amazon cart. I have been happily maskless having been boosted and subsequently catching Covid. Really thought this time it would recede into the flu category. Bodywhomper’s linked article was concerning. Long Covid has always been the most worrisome outcome.

[LongShortLong]

Just added some 3m n95 masks to my Amazon cart. I have been happily maskless having been boosted and subsequently catching Covid. Really thought this time it would recede into the flu category. Bodywhomper’s linked article was concerning. Long Covid has always been the most worrisome outcome.

I'm surprised how many intelligent people don't seem to get that. Or don't care about long Covid.

[jono]

I'm surprised how many intelligent people don't seem to get that. Or don't care about long Covid.

I'm just surprised how sticky our assessment of "intelligent" proves to be. The last 2 years whenever I have to work with a covidiot I reset expectations up front and plan to fend off emotional reasoning about purely rational problems. They rarely disappoint, but I'm learning a few techniques. Probably good for me in the long run, but I don't have to like it.

[KQ]

BA.5 Will Cause 'Even Greater Surge,' Warns UCSF's Wachter of Highly Infectious COVID Subvariant
Spencer WhitneyNatalia V Navarro
Jul 6

While COVID-19 restrictions have eased around the U.S., experts have discovered a new omicron subvariant, named BA.5, that appears to be more infectious and can evade immune responses.

According to a report from the California Department of Public Health, the statewide positivity rate has jumped to 15% from 13.2% the previous week, making the rate the largest increase seen since January. Counties have begun to feel the surge as well, including San Francisco County, which reported a rate of 51.1 new cases per 100,000 people, making it 11 cases higher than the state average.

New data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows the BA.5 variant is becoming the dominant version of the coronavirus nationwide. BA.5 was identified in South Africa and Europe in February and has been monitored closely by government health agencies since cases started to appear in the U.S.

Bay Area COVID-19 experts say the new BA.5 strain means the region needs to change its thinking on responding to the pandemic. KQED's Natalia Navarro spoke with UCSF’s Dr. Bob Wachter about the new strain and its potential impact on the Bay Area.

This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

NATALIA NAVARRO: What is the latest on BA.5? It is a subvariant of omicron, right?

DR. BOB WACHTER: It is, but it's acting differently enough that it would almost be better if it was given its own Greek letter, so we would treat it with the respect it deserves. It's acting not exactly the same way as we've gotten used tobwith all these other subvariants.

So what exactly does it mean that it's acting differently?

Well, we've gotten used to it after omicron hit in December and January, and I think we all said, including me, "I can't believe how infectious this is. I can't imagine anything more infectious." It turned out there were two or three other subvariants that were about 20% more infectious, but they tended to be reasonably respectful of immunity from both vaccines and boosters as well as prior infection. So they evaded immunity a little bit. But by and large, if you were fully vaccinated and boosted, you were in really good shape. And if you'd had a prior infection with omicron, you weren't going to get a reinfection.

So this one is somewhat different in that it is more infectious than the prior variants, but it's substantially more invasive of the immune system. So your vaccines and yourboosters still work to prevent severe infections, and I highly recommend them. But your prior infection doesn't count nearly as much. So the old saw that "I just had omicron in February, I've got superpowers and I don't need to worry about it" doesn't really work anymore. So even if you had omicron as recently as a month ago, we're starting to see people come back with reinfections with this new variant because it evades the immunity from your prior infections pretty well.

In what circumstances should people be considering a second booster in terms of, in reaction to this new subvariant?

Well, the official recommendation is everybody over 50 should get one. And I have to say, until a few weeks ago, when this BA.5 became a thing, I was a little bit on the fence. I got a second booster. I'm 64 years old. I got one about two months ago, I thought the evidence for people over about 60 was

raised reasonably strong. But for people over 50, let's say, 50 to 60, I said it was sort of dealer's choice. You can wait a little bit and see how things go and maybe the surge will go away and then you'll wait and get maybe a rejiggered booster in the fall.

I think now because there's a huge amount of COVID around, BA.5 is going to cause an even greater surge, and some emerging evidence that's come out in the last few weeks says that the mortality rate from COVID for people over 50 is substantially lower if you get the second booster. I think everybody over 50 should get their second booster. It may turn out to be that even if you're under 50, you should get it. But we're still waiting for formal recommendations on that.

How does this change which public health policies should be put in place? Like, is it time to restore mask mandates?

Mask mandates are very controversial. I'm of the mindset that we should reserve them for when we really need them. I realize that there are many people who say there's a ton of cases around now, it's time for mandates. But I think as individuals now, we can keep ourselves safe. I'm in the hospital right now and I wear an N95 when I go see my patients. Even if they have COVID, I'm pretty confident I'm not going to get COVID from them. If you're vaccinated, boosted and wearing a good mask, I think you can keep yourself safe. So I think mandates are appropriate if hospitals are getting overwhelmed.

The only good news right now on the COVID front is, despite a ton of cases, our hospitals are seeing more cases, but they're not yet overwhelmed. At UCSF today, we've got about 45 or 50 COVID patients. In January, we had 150. So we're about a third of our peak in our ICU and we only have five or six COVID patients, which is really light compared to prior stages of the pandemic. I am in favor of people wearing a good mask and being very careful. But I think it's reasonable to make that a personal decision rather than a mandate.

As a region, how is the Bay Area doing in terms of infections?

Not good and almost surprisingly not good because we've been the poster child of COVID response all the way through. We still have by far the lowest per capita death rate from COVID of any large metropolitan area. Our vaccine rate is quite good, but we are seeing a lot of cases now, and I think that's further evidence that your vaccines and boosters are still working really well in terms of keeping you from getting super sick and dying. They don't work nearly as well as they used to in terms of preventing infection.

So in the Bay Area, you have a lot of people vaccinated and boosted, but a lot of people being far less careful than they were, even as recently as six months ago. There's a lot of the virus around and we're seeing a very large number of infections. Everybody knows friends and family that have been fine and COVID-free for two years and have just gotten it in the last month or two.

Bottom line, if someone wants to avoid catching this, what do they need to do right now?

First of all, I recommend that you avoid catching it if you can. I understand that we're all sick of it. I'd love for it to go away, but it's not gone away. I think the main reason to avoid catching it now is long COVID. If you're vaccinated and boosted, you're very unlikely to die of it. But there's still a decent chance that you will get a case of COVID that you will regret having gotten. My wife is 10 weeks out and continues to feel maybe 80% of normal. So what do you do? You should get vaccinated and you should get boosted.

If you're over 50, get your second booster. But there's no sort of skirting around. The only way to prevent getting it is to wear a good mask in crowded indoor spaces and to pay attention to ventilation. I'm not doing indoor dining right now until the case rates come way down. I think if you're going to try to avoid getting it, that is what you need to do. And just being vaccinated and boosted is not good enough to prevent you from getting it.

[skiJ]

Thank you for this post, KQ -

skiJ

[SumJongGuy]

It's definitely not gone. I'm still going to cover up in tight spaces with other people for more than 5 minutes. FIne with walking through a store or whatever.. until the checkout line gets kinda long.. then pulling out the mask..

Not going to sit in a conference room full of work colleagues unmasked for more than 5-10 minutes. IDGAF what the rest of the people there are or aren't doing..

[SumJongGuy]

Hooray, more not-good news!

BA.5, Chapter 2

More junk on the way, yay. Don't know about others but I have a lot of people in my circles who've gotten it again within the past month. fully boosted but quit wearing masks.

Looks like it's keep vaxed to prevent major complications but still mask up everywhere you're sucking in recently used air. EIther suffer under the mask in indoor tight spaces with others or expect to get sick with COVID every other month. Those seem to be the options..

[KQ]

More junk on the way, yay. Don't know about others but I have a lot of people in my circles who've gotten it again within the past month. fully boosted but quit wearing masks.

Looks like it's keep vaxed to prevent major complications but still mask up everywhere you're sucking in recently used air. EIther suffer under the mask in indoor tight spaces with others or expect to get sick with COVID every other month. Those seem to be the options..

Option #3 - stay home

[Mustonen]

Option #3 - stay home

That’s an interesting future. Not exactly permanent lockdown, but keep our circles smaller and stay home more. Especially with the prospect of long COVID.

The fact that this is happening pretty much right as things like remote work are more possible and connecting with others in virtual reality are pretty much right around the corner sets up a real possibility for a permanent inflection point.

[AdironRider]

That is by far a minority opinion. The vast majority of humans prefer in person interaction.

Maybe no the office because work sucks, but you can't sit there and say the human race was like, I'm good just sitting here at home after the last two years.

[Percy Rideout]

That’s an interesting future. Not exactly permanent lockdown, but keep our circles smaller and stay home more. Especially with the prospect of long COVID.

The fact that this is happening pretty much right as things like remote work are more possible and connecting with others in virtual reality are pretty much right around the corner sets up a real possibility for a permanent inflection point.

Call me crazy, but the isolation of the last 2 years has helped in part create this outrage culture we see today. People are less agreeable than they were in 2020 and before.

Humans are social animals no matter how you try to rationalize it.

[jono]

Humans were not genetically more social when there were less of us. The more of us there are the more effort it takes to keep interaction from becoming constant. More fencing, more walls, more filters. Billions is too many for lots of reasons, viruses just might be the most obvious.

[galibier_numero_un]

Dunbar's number. The actual number is under debate, but the principle seems to be agreed on:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...social%20lives.

... Thom

[riser4]

That’s an interesting future. Not exactly permanent lockdown, but keep our circles smaller and stay home more. Especially with the prospect of long COVID.

The fact that this is happening pretty much right as things like remote work are more possible and connecting with others in virtual reality are pretty much right around the corner sets up a real possibility for a permanent inflection point.

I was probably 11 or 12 and I was shooting the shit with my dad when I came up with an idea that humans should live isolated from each other. Cubicles may or may not have been involved. I have no idea what the context was, I was batting random ideas around and even at that age I was reading a lot of sci-fi. That was about 40 years. Interesting how that one has aged.

[old goat]

I was listening to some anthropologist talking about his stay with some isolated Amazon tribe and what struck him most about those people was that they never stopped talking from the moment they woke up until they went to sleep. I would not like being in that tribe.

[muted reborn]

I was listening to some anthropologist talking about his stay with some isolated Amazon tribe and what struck him most about those people was that they never stopped talking from the moment they woke up until they went to sleep. I would not like being in that tribe.

My 5 year old would fit right in.

[riser4]

I was listening to some anthropologist talking about his stay with some isolated Amazon tribe and what struck him most about those people was that they never stopped talking from the moment they woke up until they went to sleep. I would not like being in that tribe.

Omg. I'd end up murdering someone.

[KQ]

That’s an interesting future. Not exactly permanent lockdown, but keep our circles smaller and stay home more. Especially with the prospect of long COVID.

The fact that this is happening pretty much right as things like remote work are more possible and connecting with others in virtual reality are pretty much right around the corner sets up a real possibility for a permanent inflection point.

That is by far a minority opinion. The vast majority of humans prefer in person interaction.

Maybe no the office because work sucks, but you can't sit there and say the human race was like, I'm good just sitting here at home after the last two years.

Huh. Well I'm one of those that enjoys my own company. I have no problem hanging out on my farm with the animals enjoying the natural world. I don't mind talking to to people, having them stop by for a chin wag once in a while but I have always truly enjoyed my alone time and this has been the case since I was a little kid.

[AdironRider]

That's great, my sister is pretty much the same and if you are happy, then I can't fault you for it.

That said, you cannot say that the majority of society feels this way and is well proven. For me and billions of others, that makes us miserable.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...rvous%20system.

What I have noticed at this point in the Covid saga is the loudest voices for continuing lockdowns, or masking, or any other sort of protocol are the ones who are the most comfortable with isolation. See this thread as just one small example. I think recognition of other people's propensity to sit couped up by themselves and the effects it has on their well being needs to be part of the conversation, notably the effects of social isolation due to covid practices. Two plus years in it is abundantly clear that doesn't work for the vast majority of people.

[jono]

It's interesting that you reference the majority of people feeling a particular way. Do you think you would feel differently about this if you were part of a small minority instead?

[joetron]

Last Weds one of my employees called in to say he had a feverish night and had just tested positive. He worked the day before with myself and 3 others. This is at a small bike shop, we keep doors /windows open and ceiling fan on, but we’re generally in close contact with each other all day. We don’t see a ton of tourists - don’t do rentals and are primarily a service shop. But we’re in Durango and the majority of our town’s visitors are from TX, NM and AZ. As a bike shop, our customers do tend to be on the healthy side.
Those of us who worked with him masked up and monitored for symptoms the rest of the week.
Despite no symptoms, I took a rapid test Sat pm, 5days from contact, just in case I was asymptomatic. Negative, same with my other staff that had worked that Tuesday.
We’re still all healthy.
What does this mean? I have no idea, just figured I’d provide another anecdote to the mess.
This is the closest confirmed fly-by I’ve had since Aug 2020. Masks have gone on and off based on the reco of the local health dept.
FWIW, I start the day with an EmergenC packet, and a zinc and vitamin D supplement. I have no idea if this has any effect, but I haven’t “officially” caught the Covid yet. I did catch some nasty bug in early Feb 2020 when I lived in Ketchum…I still think that might have been the ‘Rona. (Vaxxed 3/21 - boosted 10/21 - furiously knocking on wood). I’ve tried to balance hermit/social life, but the reality is that I work retail and interact with people at the shop 6 days a week to make a living. I eat out regularly, but avoid really crowded, stuffy places. YMMV


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[mb6f50]

That's great, my sister is pretty much the same and if you are happy, then I can't fault you for it.

That said, you cannot say that the majority of society feels this way and is well proven. For me and billions of others, that makes us miserable.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...rvous%20system.

What I have noticed at this point in the Covid saga is the loudest voices for continuing lockdowns, or masking, or any other sort of protocol are the ones who are the most comfortable with isolation. See this thread as just one small example. I think recognition of other people's propensity to sit couped up by themselves and the effects it has on their well being needs to be part of the conversation, notably the effects of social isolation due to covid practices. Two plus years in it is abundantly clear that doesn't work for the vast majority of people.

What about people who have seen first hand the effects of covid on our most vulnerable populations?

I fucking hate covid and masking and social distancing and isolation.

I also fucking hate people dying unnessicarily.

I also fucking hate when people use inflammatory words like "lockdowns" because lock downs never happened in the United States and I dont think anyone beyond a few rare outliers are seriously advocating for lockdowns at all.

I think people should wear masks in places where its unreasonable to expect someone to avoid. Doctors offices, hospitals, public transit, government buildings, grocery stores, pharmacies.

I think this should be based on the levels of covid in the community at a given time, so when cases are low, no need to mask. When they start to rise, we mask again.

I think people should just be willing to do it because of a basic concern for others. I dont think we should need mandates, but we do.

I dont give a fuck about bars, restaurants concerts, sporting events, etc because nobody has to go to those places/events until/unless case numbers and hospitalizations are high enough to cause problems in the community.

Meaning, if hospitals are having trouble caring for covid patients and are having to cancel other procedures because of high numbers of covid patients then large super spreading events shouldn't happen. Again, I don't think this should have to be mandated I think people should just do it as part of the basic social contract of caring for each other but they don't, so here we are.

[AdironRider]

You do you, but you cannot seriously argue that is the majority opinion currently.

[oldnew_guy]

That's great, my sister is pretty much the same and if you are happy, then I can't fault you for it.

That said, you cannot say that the majority of society feels this way and is well proven. For me and billions of others, that makes us miserable.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...rvous%20system.

What I have noticed at this point in the Covid saga is the loudest voices for continuing lockdowns, or masking, or any other sort of protocol are the ones who are the most comfortable with isolation. See this thread as just one small example. I think recognition of other people's propensity to sit couped up by themselves and the effects it has on their well being needs to be part of the conversation, notably the effects of social isolation due to covid practices. Two plus years in it is abundantly clear that doesn't work for the vast majority of people.

The documented learning loss with hybrid or remote school is another reason to figure out better solutions than just isolation.

I think the current approach of reducing social contact and protective masking during periods of high transmission in combination with vaccination, HVAC solutions and better boosters is probably the best we can do based on our response to date.

The people who think we all need to be forced back to the office are straight up crazy though. Remote or hybrid is here to stay and is way way better for life balance than commuting to a cubicle to do the same thing.

There is a certain subset of people that want everyone back in the office to meet their socialization needs -> via dropping by my desk to chat about some bullshit I don’t care about.