Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Brock Landers]

In Lone Stars defense, he was quoting AustinFromSA. Who deserved it.

That said, BMills did NOT suck off Sean Hannity. Probably.

[El Chupacabra]

That said, BMills did NOT suck off Sean Hannity. Probably.

I'm sure he'll deny it.

[The Tortoise]

We have surpassed 200,000 cases, double the 100,000 as of March 6th.

So it took two weeks to double.

Flawed math is flawed.

Remove the 80k cases in China that have basically flatlined and look at the the growth in the rest of the world.

Add to that the large number of unconfirmed and untested and you'll find we are doubling worldwide at a rate much faster than every 2 weeks.

Particularly in Florida.

[Danno]

I'm sure he'll deny it.

he also denied beating his kid, so it's just another one of his denials.

[Lone Star]

Anybody who's been paying any attention at all on this site for the past ~15 years knows BMills is not a Hannity guy, or even a political guy at all (on here at least), so kindly fuck off Lone Star.

.....BMills..... ?

[Benny Profane]

As far as non reported deaths, you wonder how many old people living alone are going to be found after all this.

[The Tortoise]

Around 10% of them?

[iceman]

In Lone Stars defense, he was quoting AustinFromSA. Who deserved it.

Ah. Well, that's different.

[iceman]

.....BMills..... ?

Yeah my mistake, sorry. Carry on.

[Lone Star]

That wasn't nice of me to say, anyway. that was all the pent up rage from hearing my fox loving family downplay this for the past month. Sorry, (not sorry), Austin

[jono]

One thing I found at fault with it is that they used 7 deaths for the Diamond Princess. At one point I noticed an Diamond Princess case was counted as an Australian death. I contacted the folks at worldometers and asked about this



Point being, just 1 more death changes the stats completely there and if there were three more deaths uncounted much moreso. Also there are still some not out of the woods yet there.

Additionally, to conclude the US general pop would not exceed 1% mortality he's leaning on the idea that the 700 infected were elderly but ignoring the fact that many were crew and all were at least healthy enough to decide to take a cruise. It's a weird sample in addition to being small (and evidently wrong).

To the point about selection bias among those tested, some stats guy sitting home should look at the mortality rate among all those tested and see how that population's mortality compares to the general population. Could be interesting and requires gathering only data, not physical samples.

[Danno]

curious what stage some of you are?

[old goat]

Mofro, I know you're not an epidemiologist, but I'd be interested in your take on this article that Huckbucket posted a link to. While ge didn't go so far as to say he agreed, he didn't say he disagreed either. fwiw I think it's important https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

It's always great to have accurate and complete information before making a decision, but when it's time to make a decision you make it regardless. If new information changes your mind, you change it. We won't know the true transmissibility and mortality of CoV2 as well as how it behaves in different seasons, climates, etc, for a long time. I don't have a problem with the facts as presented in the article; there is obviously a lot of uncertain about the data and how to interpret it. But I have a problem calling it a fiasco because people are making decisions based on uncertain facts. They have no choice; not taking any action until all the facts are in is a decision too, and one that could have lethal consequences.

My nonprofessional, gut feeling is that we are doing too much--that the social and economic consequences of the lockdown are too great for the threat, that the lockdown can't be sustained for as long as it needs to be to work. Only time will tell. In the meantime I have to accept that our health leaders are making honest decisions based on the facts they have.

[Cono Este]

Georgia hospital says Mexico wants $7 per n95 mask.




Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[XXX-er]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/can...deal-1.5501289

the border is closed now we are safe from America !

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/maga-memo-virus-1.5501024

it was a democratic hoax but now its not ?

[Ottime]

Flawed math is flawed.

Remove the 80k cases in China that have basically flatlined and look at the the growth in the rest of the world.

Add to that the large number of unconfirmed and untested and you'll find we are doubling worldwide at a rate much faster than every 2 weeks.

Particularly in Florida.

That flatline is also assuming the Chinese government is being honest with the public.

[powdork]

We have surpassed 200,000 cases, double the 100,000 as of March 6th.

So it took two weeks to double. Seemed like at the beginning of this, many were saying the cases would double each day, 80% of the world would be infected, millions would die. So far we are at 8,000 deaths.

I understand there are probably a ton of unreported cases, but can't imagine there are many unreported deaths. The article that I read with these stats tried to be all dramatic.."THE NUMBER OF REPORTED CASES HAS DOUBLED IN ONLY TWO WEEKS!"

If in another two weeks we are sitting at 400,000 cases and 16,000 deaths world wide, I would say we are doing pretty good containing it.

Lets talk about the US
First, the number at which the cases double is thought to be between 3 and 4 days. Take a look at deaths in the US. On March 6 we were at 15. March 10 at 30. March 14 at 57. Halfway thru March 18 we are 116 deaths. So doubling every 4 days seems reasonable, and so far we see no effects of the lockdown but that should be several more days to a weak.

2nd-You are adding the timelines of three separate outbreaks (China, Europe, and the US) for your data. if you look at when the Europe outbreak started and then do your math, or when it started in America and then do your math, you will get VERY different results

[BmillsSkier]

That said, BMills did NOT suck off Sean Hannity. Probably.

Definitely.

elbow bumps all around boys.

[jono]

No one has those numbers yet, but no inaccuracy is NOT unique to the CDC test.

I probably should have asked more directly if there's any chance the SK tests are somehow dramatically less likely to produce false positives? Or are they re-testing to weed those out (which one presumes would be true here as well)? My point being their numbers don't support massive false positives being reported as confirmed. (But of course I'll leave it to the polifuckstick brigade to interpret whether that's on Obama or Trump, so really I got nothing.)

[powdork]

Friend I'm going skiing today with has a brother in law in his final throws of brain cancer today in a hospital in Boston. his wife is not allowed to visit him, at all. So fucking sad.

[TAFKALVS]

Can anyone explain why all the yellow mustard at the grocery store was gone, but there was plenty of stoneground and Dijon?

[powdrhound]

All of the money for the $1,000 checks will be borrowed from China.

[rideit]

Because Dijon comes from France, and might be infected.
Duh.

[Deebased]

The quote I read was
“We May never know if taking these precautions was effective...but we would certainly know if not taking these precautions wasn’t”
Or something like that

Seems like a reason to never ski.

We'll never know if that slope will slide but we would certainly know if it avalanches.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Highly recommended, powerful anti-viral and great for social distancing.