Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[LongShortLong]

I see that CDC reports 5800 breakthrough infections of fully vaccinated people. What that means is tough to say without a detailed analysis. Here's the relatively useless MSM report. The CDC is even less useful as I cannot find the source report on CDC . A detailed analysis would look at CDCs data and definitions, estimate how many reports are missing, match the reporting population to corresponding unvaxxed populations and their infection rates, accounting for age, date, region and vax status for the reports. So basically, 5800 is a number with no context.

While thinking about the above, I did notice that I had not accounted for the old age bias in the WA data I posted earlier. And changed my opinion to include that the WA data shows vaccines reduce disease severity in addition to infection likelihood.

[gravitylover]

Yeah I'm right there too. Haven't been doing any art (I do fiber art). Throughout the pandemic I've been accumulating supplies but they just sit there because of my funk. I've got a piece I've been working on for a week that should have only taken me a day. That said, reading that article kinda helped. I pulled the cover off my WIP and got a lot done on it yesterday. Will probably finish it this morning and I already have ideas for the next piece.

I've been trying to do more stuff. I'm spending hours each day working around the house and yard. While that's good and its getting me off my ass it's not helping me focus on work that earns me a $.

I haven't picked up a guitar since the pandemic started. I used to play daily. The neighbors appreciate it, since I play electric, and sing.

Lol

[MontuckyFried]

I could've sworn that yesterday (or the day before?) someone here posted a piece about the fact that the Greek "study" from last summer about smokers was debunked. Anybody else remember seeing that? Different thread?

[old goat]

I see that CDC reports 5800 breakthrough infections of fully vaccinated people. What that means is tough to say without a detailed analysis. Here's the relatively useless MSM report. The CDC is even less useful as I cannot find the source report on CDC . A detailed analysis would look at CDCs data and definitions, estimate how many reports are missing, match the reporting population to corresponding unvaxxed populations and their infection rates, accounting for age, date, region and vax status for the reports. So basically, 5800 is a number with no context.

While thinking about the above, I did notice that I had not accounted for the old age bias in the WA data I posted earlier. And changed my opinion to include that the WA data shows vaccines reduce disease severity in addition to infection likelihood.

What it means is this: we need almost everyone to be vaccinated. We will fail to control the pandemic in the long term for the same reason we failed to control it in the short term--Americans' idiocy and pigheadedness.

I found this from the CDC report interesting: "In the coming weeks, CDC will transition from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only vaccine breakthrough infections that result in hospitalization or death. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance." (In other words, "we don't have the resources to investigate everyone, 'cause, you know, Murica.")

In other news--VA study showed 60% higher risk of death within 6 months among nonhospitalized covid patients, from a variety of causes. This is an older, sicker, more male population than the general population and the non-covid VA group the study group was compared to had fewer Black people, so lower risk of death. Still, the study confirms that covid is not just the flu. (Even the flu is not just the flu. Apologies to William Faulkner.)

[gretch6364]

In other news--VA study showed 60% higher risk of death within 6 months among nonhospitalized covid patients, from a variety of causes. This is an older, sicker, more male population than the general population and the non-covid VA group the study group was compared to had fewer Black people, so lower risk of death. Still, the study confirms that covid is not just the flu. (Even the flu is not just the flu. Apologies to William Faulkner.)

Any chance you have a link for this? I see the study for hospitalized patients after release, but my quick google search didn't find what you are referencing. Would like to send study to someone. Thanks

[old goat]

Any chance you have a link for this? I see the study for hospitalized patients after release, but my quick google search didn't find what you are referencing. Would like to send study to someone. Thanks

here's a link to the article in Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s415..._reference.pdf
and to the summary in the NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/h...vid-risks.html

I haven't read the Nature article but there's a lot more in it than the headline in the NYT.

[MTT]

State department raises 80% of the countries in the world to level 3or 4 travel restrictions. In the real world not sure what that means as far as traveling from or to those countries related to the US.
Apparently this happened today

[pureantigravity]

Canada limits flights from India and Pakistan for 30 days. It has already been detected in Quebec, north of Trois-Rivières. So basically, the variant is probably all over the place already.

[huckbucket]

I could've sworn that yesterday (or the day before?) someone here posted a piece about the fact that the Greek "study" from last summer about smokers was debunked. Anybody else remember seeing that? Different thread?

I posted that. Wassup?

https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...38#post6298638

[bennymac]

[Ted Striker]

So not much different from 1912.

[KQ]

So not much different from 1912.

Or 1918.

Honestly you think we'd never been through a pandemic before. That one lasted 2 years and the same mitigation efforts had to be made that we are making today yet somehow people act like this has never happen before.

No lessons learned, no understanding of what needs to be done to get through this and get back to normal. It's as if all the history books were burned.

[old goat]

State department raises 80% of the countries in the world to level 3or 4 travel restrictions. In the real world not sure what that means as far as traveling from or to those countries related to the US.
Apparently this happened today

The State Department travel advisories are just that--advisories, not orders. Level 3 is reconsider travel. Level 4 is do not travel. The rules reflect the fact that a lot of countries seem to be doing worse than the US. More important are various presidential and CDC orders about who may travel where and what precautions people need to take prior to returning to the US. In addition each country will have its own rules about required testing and quarantine prior to entry. US residents returning from abroad have to have a negative test within 3 days of their return flight. Returnees from certain high risk countries--Brazil and South Africa, maybe some others, must quarantine as well. The rules apply to vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The various rules change a lot; probably not worth studying in detail unless you actually plan to travel.

[PNWbrit]

The State Department travel advisories are just that--advisories, not orders. Level 3 is reconsider travel. Level 4 is do not travel. More important are various presidential and CDC orders about who may travel where and what precautions people need to take prior to returning to the US. In addition each country will have its own rules about required testing and quarantine prior to entry. US residents returning from abroad have to have a negative test within 3 days of their return flight. Returnees from certain high risk countries--Brazil and South Africa, maybe some others, must quarantine as well. The rules apply to vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The various rules change a lot; probably not worth studying in detail unless you actually plan to travel.

This. My Wife just had to travel to the UK for a funeral. UK requires 3 day negative test before travel 10 day minimum stay confirmed preordered test on day 2 and day 10 of stay. Travel from certain red list countries requires 14 day stay in a quarantine hotel. (US not on red list)

US return requires neg test within 3 days of travel

This warning is just the same as those to where you get "expect petty street theft" "fake currency proliferates" "political instability"

[Benny Profane]

Or 1918.

Honestly you think we'd never been through a pandemic before. That one lasted 2 years and the same mitigation efforts had to be made that we are making today yet somehow people act like this has never happen before.

No lessons learned, no understanding of what needs to be done to get through this and get back to normal. It's as if all the history books were burned.

There's many a book on the topic. One major difference is that we were actually still at war. Obviously the return of three million soldiers spread the hell out of it, but, it was also a time when three million men suddenly came back into the economy and had to get back to work. I think that immediate post war period also brought on a bad recession, which made most more desperate. No safety nets. The science was hardly as advanced, which slowed responses.

[MontuckyFried]

I posted that. Wassup?

https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...38#post6298638

Ah HA! Thanks, mang. Couldn't find it for some reason. Search function obviously useless as usual. Haha.

Remember that study showing smokers caught CV19 at a lower rate than non-smokers? Big study out of Greece. Well, turns out the authors failed to disclose they are funded by tobacco. Bzzzt. Retracted.

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/57/3/2002144

The journal essentially said their mission is to promote lung health and they do not publish studies from people who have relationships with the tobacco industry. Also, the authors hid that fact.

So yeah. About that. I remember a few of us calling bullshit on that study way back when. Others were blindly guzzling that news puke being like "Yup. Shore is a weird virus, huh?"

This, folks. This is why it's ok to be skeptical about "teh SciENce" sometimes.

[XXX-er]

Canada has got so bad that its infection rate per million is worse than America

big change from 1 year ago

[MTT]

Canada has got so bad that its infection rate per million is worse than America

big change from 1 year ago

Anyone want to speculate as to why that might be

[Thaleia]

Canada has got so bad that its infection rate per million is worse than America

big change from 1 year ago

Don't worry, we made Premier Ford cry today so at least there's that.

[XXX-er]

Even tho the republican types are refusing the Vax America is ahead on vax procurement & getting shot in arms which i think has made a difference already especially with the 3rd wave hitting

the provinces gave in to the filthy lucre and opened up too early, i think the scientists could have told you what was gona happen and it did

I AM curiuos to see how the % of pop vaxxed in both countries ends up

we don't have republicans but we still got dumb people

i got pfizered 1 week ago but I havent changed anything, still locked down in a very small bubble

[The SnowShow]

Talked with some Indian friends today who are doctors in LA and have family back in India who have gotten sick from the triple variant there. They are very concerned it’s going to get here easily (no travel bans) and spread like wildfire. And the current vaccines don’t cover it. Made me very depressed today.

[MTT]

I don't think anti vax lines up with gop support. In my little part of the world it seems more a don't trust, will not conform view. Alot of different demographics land there. For completely different reasons.

[XXX-er]

Don't worry, we made Premier Ford cry today so at least there's that.

And all them god-heads in Kenny's Alberta UCP are in open revolt

a year ago i was driving trucks full of food into fire & forestry camps, there were zero cases in the narth, right now there are 9 cases just in this small town alone and no fucking way i am gona do that job

the tree planters are going to try and pull off completely covid free camps in the bush and make the big money like they did last year which should be interesting to see if they can pull it off again, they mask & distance don't share reefers or bottle of fireball and end up completely free of diseases after 14 days

[XXX-er]

I don't think anti vax lines up with gop support. In my little part of the world it seems more a don't trust, will not conform view. Alot of different demographics land there. For completely different reasons.

really ?

must just be opportunistic journalists drawing false correlations then

but that why i wana see how many people vax on either side of the 49th

[huckbucket]

Ah HA! Thanks, mang. Couldn't find it for some reason. Search function obviously useless as usual. Haha.


So yeah. About that. I remember a few of us calling bullshit on that study way back when. Others were blindly guzzling that news puke being like "Yup. Shore is a weird virus, huh?"

This, folks. This is why it's ok to be skeptical about "teh SciENce" sometimes.

If you use these sorts of examples as proof that science is not trustworthy than I sincerely doubt you understand how science works. Science moves on a continuum where evidence is directly proportional to confidence. In other words, one-off or new observations require corroboration and/or supporting data before they can move to a place where people gain confident of their reality. This isn't about skepticism. Instead it's a respect for the process and a recognition that early findings can be wrong for a million reasons (some of them nefarious). You were right to question the inverse relationship between smoking and covid. However, rather than vilify all of "SciENCE" you should praise the process that revealed the truth.