Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Core Shot]

Never forget that Dr Ben Carson is a fucking idiot

True. Most intercity kids that escape the projects and become brain surgeons are retards

[Kinnikinnick]

go figure you’d be the person to know all about the benefits of swallowing…


guy finds a credible source and all KKK can talk about is the dick he loves to suck…

Well the wife is pretty immune to depression so must be that.

“Credible source?”

Lol just as stupid as he is.



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[Tri-Ungulate]

Some may well ask whoTF this Dr. Noorchashm is.

I remember him from the days when he was advocating against uterine morcellation due to subsequent risks of metastatic leiomyosarcoma. He became politically active because it happened to his wife; I just knew about it because in my old job we were seeing an inordinate number of women with metastatic leiomyosarcoma who had undergone the procedure.

His current campaign/tirade is against vaccination of individuals previously infected with SARS CoV2. He’s pretty vociferous about it, with his rationale being that it’s unnecessary and potentially dangerous.

He definitely appears to enjoy the limelight (with appearances on Tucker Swanson Carlson’s show).

With all due respect to his CT surgery training, neither infectious disease nor epidemiology is directly in his wheelhouse. I do acknowledge his PhD in Immunology, and don't think he is entirely a crank like Stella Immanuel


Lets review his concerns, which are not entirely without merit:

1) Unnecessary: He’s trotting out the argument that immunity acquired from actual SARS CoV2 infection has equivalence to vaccination. For this, he cites the Cleveland Clinic analysis (mentioned earlier in this or the other thread) as well as another recent study out of Israel. Both are preprints in BioRxiv, not yet peer reviewed or vetted/commented on. Both are retrospective observational analyses, a definite weakness in re: strength of evidence, but unfortunately are the best you can do under the circumstances.

The Shrestha Cleveland Clinic study concludes "Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination". This is a strong statement, especially as many would consider their sample size to be underpowered (in terms of their cohort selection, numbers and time followed) in order to make such a definitive conclusion.

The Goldberg Israel study is much more robust, and they make good efforts to address potential shortcomings of their method of analysis. Although they feel their "results question the need to vaccinate previously-infected individuals" they do not blandly state that it is clear that this is absolutely unnecessary. They acknowledge that their data does not take temporal dynamics into account, and indeed do state that "follow-up is currently too short to answer time-dependent questions, but this is a crucial and required next step that can be answered using the national Israeli data in the future."

2) Potentially dangerous: Noorchashm dwells on the possibility that vaccination of previously-infected patients could inappropriately reactivate the immune response, per case reports out of Kaiser

This is a valid concern, but based on very low numbers.


In any case, Noorchashm's concerns are not unwarranted, but my beef with him is how he makes highly publicized sweeping definitive statements with a certainty that overstates the available data, and remains exceedingly confident and outspoken in his opinion despite uncertainties in the field.


But this is not unusual behavior for a surgeon, especially a CT surgeon, eh OG?

[frorider]

Most intercity kids that escape the projects

Those are, what, kids that grow up on the Philly to Boston train?

[KQ]

Not going the way I thought it would............


In June, Walla Walla County had more positive COVID cases than April and May combined.

9 days into July, there have been 37 more cases than there were the first 9 days of June

[old goat]

What's "data" 3ungulate?

My understanding is that a better case can be made that people who have had Covid may only need one shot of an mRNA vaccine. I haven't read anything on this in a few months.
My feeling is that those of us with peripherally related scientific or medical training should confine our comments to fora like this and leave the public commenting to people active in the field in question.
Dr. Noorchashm's immunology PhD is nearly 20 years old and it doesn't sound like he's been active in the field since then.
I tend to be wary of people who posture as iconoclasts. For every Galileo there are dozens of Wakefields. But there are Galileos, so we have to keep an open mind. (Note, though that Galileo did his own research, unlike a lot of cranks who misinterpret other people's work.)

Not everyone with "Dr." before their name or "MD" after it is deserving of attention.

[Tri-Ungulate]

What's "data" 3ungulate?

"Data" is in aggregate, from available published studies. This is constantly evolving, as is most science, and therefore a moving target. And sure, there's gonna be squishiness regarding interpretation of available data. That's science.

So anybody, be they self-proclaimed "gondola-cable Technoking" or someone with at least some medical chops like Noorchaschm, making definitive statements where significant uncertainty remains (what with ongoing developing data collection, analysis and interpretation), is foolish. At least IMO.

And totally you agree with you on

Not everyone with "Dr." before their name or "MD" after it is deserving of attention.

[bennymac]

Someone can be a doctor and still be a total idiot. I mean a doctor married Core Shot…what more proof do we need?

[MagnificentUnicorn]

I stand corrected on that. Moderna started in March 2020

You should start a thread titled “I stand corrected on any stupid, disingenuous or ignorant post I’ve made in any thread on TGR ever”. That should cover every post you’ve made here.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Most smart people are actually quite tolerant and patient and respectful of even the lowest idiots.

Well, people are actually pretty patient and tolerant of your posting. Trying again and again to explain something you lack the ability to understand. At least you’re achieving some level of self awareness.


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[MagnificentUnicorn]

Went to the doctor today - masks all around.

Ran errands after that...post office, grocery store, roastery....I was one of very few wearing a mask.

It's all so weird and confusing.

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but CDC guidelines say everyone wears a mask in healthcare settings.


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[Tri-Ungulate]

But that's 'fringin' on mah freedumbz!

...so tired of dealing with family members who put their immunocompromised so-called loved ones at risk by refusing vaccination, and threaten and complain when we tell them they can't come into the hospital unmasked.

[KQ]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but CDC guidelines say everyone wears a mask in healthcare settings.

Yeah, I get that. It was just a strange juxtaposition. Such a bizzaro world right now.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

I’m beginning to think that having to wear a mask as a fully vaccinated healthcare worker is a pc response so that all the mouth breathing anti vaxers don’t feel discriminated against. Patients and staff

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[MESH]

Doctors offices look a little different when the patients aren't around.

[old goat]

Went to the dentist the other day. No magazines. How am I supposed to read about the Super Bowl? (LI that is).
And thanks to the dentists and their staffs for working through the pandemic--without the praise HCW's got. Mine missed a month or two at the beginning I think. My hygienist did get Covid--when she went to AZ to care for her mother who broke her hip.

[pureantigravity]

Some may well ask whoTF this Dr. Noorchashm is.

I remember him from the days when he was advocating against uterine morcellation due to subsequent risks of metastatic leiomyosarcoma. He became politically active because it happened to his wife; I just knew about it because in my old job we were seeing an inordinate number of women with metastatic leiomyosarcoma who had undergone the procedure.

His current campaign/tirade is against vaccination of individuals previously infected with SARS CoV2. He’s pretty vociferous about it, with his rationale being that it’s unnecessary and potentially dangerous.

He definitely appears to enjoy the limelight (with appearances on Tucker Swanson Carlson’s show).

With all due respect to his CT surgery training, neither infectious disease nor epidemiology is directly in his wheelhouse. I do acknowledge his PhD in Immunology, and don't think he is entirely a crank like Stella Immanuel


Lets review his concerns, which are not entirely without merit:

1) Unnecessary: He’s trotting out the argument that immunity acquired from actual SARS CoV2 infection has equivalence to vaccination. For this, he cites the Cleveland Clinic analysis (mentioned earlier in this or the other thread) as well as another recent study out of Israel. Both are preprints in BioRxiv, not yet peer reviewed or vetted/commented on. Both are retrospective observational analyses, a definite weakness in re: strength of evidence, but unfortunately are the best you can do under the circumstances.

The Shrestha Cleveland Clinic study concludes "Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination". This is a strong statement, especially as many would consider their sample size to be underpowered (in terms of their cohort selection, numbers and time followed) in order to make such a definitive conclusion.

The Goldberg Israel study is much more robust, and they make good efforts to address potential shortcomings of their method of analysis. Although they feel their "results question the need to vaccinate previously-infected individuals" they do not blandly state that it is clear that this is absolutely unnecessary. They acknowledge that their data does not take temporal dynamics into account, and indeed do state that "follow-up is currently too short to answer time-dependent questions, but this is a crucial and required next step that can be answered using the national Israeli data in the future."

2) Potentially dangerous: Noorchashm dwells on the possibility that vaccination of previously-infected patients could inappropriately reactivate the immune response, per case reports out of Kaiser

This is a valid concern, but based on very low numbers.


In any case, Noorchashm's concerns are not unwarranted, but my beef with him is how he makes highly publicized sweeping definitive statements with a certainty that overstates the available data, and remains exceedingly confident and outspoken in his opinion despite uncertainties in the field.


But this is not unusual behavior for a surgeon, especially a CT surgeon, eh OG?

Good treatment. Thanks. Although it does sound just a weee bit prejudicial against the old fellow. I'm not sure the sample set is so small as there are studies in many countries now that would seem to support confidence in the immune systems of recovered people.

Thinking out loud (dangerous I know!) ... In the shoes of a probabilistic statistician, it would seem that any vaccine, unless proven otherwise, would (1) be no more effective long term than natural immunity and (2) have future immunity trend toward the trend of most vaccines (whatever that is I can't say).

As per #1, consider the human system a machine learning AI. As such it is optimized genetically (and maybe even enviro/socially/economically) using a huge historic database (thousands+ years). If this is compared with the (unnatural) vaccine immunity process, it just hasn't had the same time frame and diverse sample set to integrate evolutionary genetic machine learning.

As per #2, consider Law of Ludicrous Large Number theory that suggests that although during P1 a vaccine may prove even more effective than natural immunity, over P2...Pn it wanes to the typical effectiveness of vaccines in general. Hence why the flu shot isn't super-effective (albeit very useful). And likewise, natural immunity develops in P2..Pn from repeat infections ,low level exposures, etc., making it as robust as naturally acquired immunity has proven to be.

If I was a betting man, I'd bet on bona fide recovered patients having better immunity and less asymptomatic low-level cases as compared to the vaccine-only group just from a probability perspective.

That being said, in the shoes of a probabilistic statistician, I'd suggest everyone get vaccinated that hasn't already and even if they have been infected already. There just isn't any reason not to at this point. In any case thanks 3ungulate for the backgrounder on said Dr..

[pureantigravity]

Additional areas of interest:

A Real-World Look at COVID-19 Vaccines Versus New Variants
https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/0...-new-variants/

"Interestingly, the evidence showed that these breakthrough infections with the B.1.1.7 variant occurred slightly more often in people after the first vaccine dose compared to unvaccinated people. No evidence was found for increased breakthrough rates of B.1.1.7 a week or more after the second dose."

So that IS unexpected But maybe related to the this below:


On a similar note of knowns, unknowns, etc., there is this on cellular responses to the vaccine and potential cautions since "Cytokine responses to certain stimuli were reduced following vaccination":

Research suggests Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine reprograms innate immune responses
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...responses.aspx

This "The effect of the BNT162b2 vaccination on innate immune responses could also interfere with the responses to other vaccinations" being the part that should promote further inquiry.





And for the record, I agree with goat about the whole Dr. designation. Although Dr. Goldfinger would make a very good name for a urologist.

[Core Shot]

Although Dr. Goldfinger would make a very good name for a urologist.

Proctologist

Are you using the whole fist doc?
Mooooooon River

[jono]

I'll rephrase PG: If you look south through your window and see a bear, go to the opposite side of the house and look south and see another bear, the bears are brown and black because statistically those are the most common bear colors.

[MTT]

Not going the way I thought it would............


In June, Walla Walla County had more positive COVID cases than April and May combined.

9 days into July, there have been 37 more cases than there were the first 9 days of June

Everyone crowded together in air conditioning because it’s so freaking hot? Just thinking out loud

[MTT]

I realize I have let up on my hand washing. Need to get back to that

[muted reborn]

Everyone crowded together in air conditioning because it’s so freaking hot? Just thinking out loud

You are actually typing, fyi.

[riser4]

I realize I have let up on my hand washing. Need to get back to that

One of the benefits is supposed to be no longer having to wash hands after going to the bathroom.

[MTT]

You are actually typing, fyi.

Yea but I have become one of those old dude’s who talks to himself while walking down the road
Communication lines officially blurred
And remember when you see that old dude sitting under a tree talking to no one you can see
It’s me remember what I was. And throw me the other half of your samich
It’s always appreciated.