Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[skaredshtles]

Ya, except I most of my sense of smell years before covid-19 hit.

Can you still smell weed?

If not, maybe go tangle with a skunk?

[MultiVerse]

So what in your estimation is the infection rate of the US populace?

It's an interesting discussion in the right context. So to be clear my beef is not the wide range of estimates. It's using the 90% asymptomatic number to argue it's "no worse than the flu" as part of a disinformation campaign to say the disease is already widespread. It goes hand in hand with so called herd immunity strategies.


With that out of the way, if you take the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) as an example asymptomatic rate estimates (a component of the infection rate) vary through time. Initial reports said the number was 80%, then 60%, with the final tally after interviewing the sailors ending up around 20% asymptomatic. A meta-analysis of studies using antibody testing and polling techniques puts the number around 40%. When people are interviewed and asked if they had a loss of smell and taste or body aches, for example, the number is much lower.

Innate immunity at lower doses also appears to be a factor where people are exposed but do not develop antibodies. Innate immunity should not be confused with acquired immunity, however, because at higher doses the virus appears more than capable of getting past the body's innate defenses.

[old goat]

If anyone is interested in a reasoned critique of Fauci's often too public decision making process surrounding masks, 1 v 2 doses, etc. you're encouraged to read this op-ed and then form an opinion. Not saying I agree completely with the author, I simply recognize that the author has nicely articulated his points. May be paywalled but should work incognito.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/90445

I take issue with this statement: "Experts are not inherently smarter, more analytical, or logical than members of the lay public. Perhaps in the past, they preferentially had access to certain types of insider information. In the modern world, due to the internet, this information gap no longer exists. This dramatically changes the game."

It is one thing to have access to information, it is another to understand it, interpret it, see it in context, as has been repeatedly demonstrated in this forum.
That's why we do better going to the doctor than treating ourselves by reading Wikipedia, or god forbid TGR. And why a doctor right out of training might have the most up to date information (at least until tomorrow) but we might do better going to a doctor with a little more experience.
The guy who wrote that article is an MD MPH. I think he may be out of touch with just how ignorant the average American is (even though we're all above average).

Regarding delaying second doses--I sure hope they aren't considering that for front line HCW's. That would be criminal IMO. If Americans insist on partying themselves into the ICU, the people who work there have the right to be fully protected. If I were working in an ICU and they told me I wasn't going to get a second dose, I would be organizing a strike.

[jono]

I take issue with this statement: "Experts are not inherently smarter, more analytical, or logical than members of the lay public. Perhaps in the past, they preferentially had access to certain types of insider information. In the modern world, due to the internet, this information gap no longer exists. This dramatically changes the game."

It is one thing to have access to information, it is another to understand it, interpret it, see it in context, as has been repeatedly demonstrated in this forum.

I like experts who haven't stripped the threads torquing down their halos. Gotta give him some credit on that point, at least.

[truckeelocal]

Trump has access to information and doesn't even need the internet. Yet he'd have us injecting bleach. Experts know which information sources to leverage. Non-experts struggle to make coherent connections and end up in conspiracies.

[bodywhomper]

I spent a chunk of yesterday as an official mask wearing enforcer at the ski hill. A fair bit of nose dicking, but all were complaint with my friendly request/reminders. Glad the skiing wasn’t that great. The whole pre/post-day locker room briefing is a little concerning, but we’re doing our best to keep it brief, everybody is masked with more than just a thin single-layer buff, and the only door next to the meeting area stays open.

I’ve been quarantining at my house. We’ve just assumed my wife had it as well. Haven’t masked, been sleeping in the same bed, even smoking together.

Took her to get tested yesterday. Results came back this morning, negative. This is some weird stuff.

I started to feel better and now going backwards a bit. I can feel it building in my lungs, pulse oximeter still shows 98% so all is good so far.

Your wife could still be in “incubation” from her exposure (your theory was that it was Dec 25), which could result in a negative test, depending on the type of test. (Somebody please correct me if that’s wrong). Regarding the oximeter, there is supposed to be variability of accuracy based on color of skin. Idk your skin color.

[Ted Striker]

I take issue with this statement: "Experts are not inherently smarter, more analytical, or logical than members of the lay public. Perhaps in the past, they preferentially had access to certain types of insider information. In the modern world, due to the internet, this information gap no longer exists. This dramatically changes the game."

It is one thing to have access to information, it is another to understand it, interpret it, see it in context, as has been repeatedly demonstrated in this forum.
That's why we do better going to the doctor than treating ourselves by reading Wikipedia, or god forbid TGR.

Easy access to information is the problem. To paraphrase Asimov, my google is just as good as your knowledge. And it's not the dullards; it's the slightly clever. Just look at this forum for numerous examples.

[JKnight]

It's an interesting discussion in the right context. So to be clear my beef is not the wide range of estimates. It's using the 90% asymptomatic number to argue it's "no worse than the flu" as part of a disinformation campaign to say the disease is already widespread. It goes hand in hand with so called herd immunity strategies.


With that out of the way, if you take the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) as an example asymptomatic rate estimates (a component of the infection rate) vary through time. Initial reports said the number was 80%, then 60%, with the final tally after interviewing the sailors ending up around 20% asymptomatic. A meta-analysis of studies using antibody testing and polling techniques puts the number around 40%. When people are interviewed and asked if they had a loss of smell and taste or body aches, for example, the number is much lower.

Innate immunity at lower doses also appears to be a factor where people are exposed but do not develop antibodies. Innate immunity should not be confused with acquired immunity, however, because at higher doses the virus appears more than capable of getting past the body's innate defenses.

Does the assumption that asymptomatic/symptomatic responses are of static metrics hold water? Immune response varies depending on the season, whether someone is run down, or exposed to toxins/pollution. And how many of those sailors have caught it again after the decline of acquired immunity? Without the vaccines, herd immunity is a joke.

[old goat]

I spent a chunk of yesterday as an official mask wearing enforcer at the ski hill. A fair bit of nose dicking, but all were complaint with my friendly request/reminders. Glad the skiing wasn’t that great. The whole pre/post-day locker room briefing is a little concerning, but we’re doing our best to keep it brief, everybody is masked with more than just a thin single-layer buff, and the only door next to the meeting area stays open.

Wearing goggles you can't always tell if your mask is over your nose.
The design of currently popular masks is a problem. Ear loop masks are much more likely to drop below the nose than surgical style masks that tie behind the neck and over the crown of the head.

[splat]

Quick refresher... The discussion is why people are so reluctant to take the vaccine.

Pro Tip: There's a thread for that, Schrödinger's Douchebag.

[Bunion 2020]

Quote Originally Posted by Deebased View Post

Quick refresher... The discussion is why people are so reluctant to take the vaccine.

And here I was thinking it was Debflection claims Fauci is a lying liar.

[Deebased]

And here I was thinking it was Debflection claims Fauci is a lying liar.

Short term dementia setting in eh?

Here's the post that got it started

nteresting quote, but ignores the reality of govts intentionally presenting falsehoods or misrepresenting information to cover up for their own ineptitude.


Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

[CarlMega]

I take issue with this statement: "Experts are not inherently smarter, more analytical, or logical than members of the lay public. Perhaps in the past, they preferentially had access to certain types of insider information. In the modern world, due to the internet, this information gap no longer exists. This dramatically changes the game."

It is one thing to have access to information, it is another to understand it, interpret it, see it in context, as has been repeatedly demonstrated in this forum.

For realz. It's boggling to even tease that idea in the current climate. It's clear that the public are poor arbitrators of information. Objectivity is all but forgotten. Cherry picking and misrepresentation to satisfy confirmation bias is widespread. Just having a health advocate who is not YOURSELF advising on these matters is the minimum firewall to work around our own blindspots and lack of objectivity.

[Bunion 2020]

if I fool me once shame on me, if I fool me twice shame on me 2x.

You must be very strong to carry that much shame.

[bodywhomper]

Wearing goggles you can't always tell if your mask is over your nose.
The design of currently popular masks is a problem. Ear loop masks are much more likely to drop below the nose than surgical style masks that tie behind the neck and over the crown of the head.

Yes. Agree on all accounts. We keep it friendly. Nobody aggro like Summit’s experience with his lift riding partner.

[Meadow Skipper]

lol. I can't believe people are still falling for Deebased....

I can’t believe people are still paying any attention to Deebased.

[skaredshtles]

I can’t believe people are still paying any attention to Deebased.

Seems strange to me, as well...

[stuckathuntermtn]

Easy access to information is the problem. To paraphrase Asimov, my google is just as good as your knowledge. And it's not the dullards; it's the slightly clever. Just look at this forum for numerous examples.

Yeah, the whole "everyone's opinion is equal and should be treated with respect" thing is bullshit. Some of the drivel being spewed can't even really count as an opinion, just nonsense and word salad. It is not automatically due any respect.

Vibes, BobMc. Hope you come out ok.

[stuckathuntermtn]

Wasn't Deebased the one arguing Planned Parenthood should go away because it's a "dinosaur"?

[Meadow Skipper]

Yeah, the whole "everyone's opinion is equal and should be treated with respect" thing is bullshit.

+1,000,000. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t moronic.

[garyfromterrace]

Yeah, the whole "everyone's opinion is equal and should be treated with respect" thing is bullshit. Some of the drivel being spewed can't even really count as an opinion, just nonsense and word salad. It is not automatically due any respect.

Vibes, BobMc. Hope you come out ok.

A(fucking)men.

[k2skier112]

I heard a new one at the grocery store today. I was passing an employee in the isle and made small small talk, she starts bitching about her mask, then she tells me she got meningococcal pneumonia from wearing her mask. I said I've never heard of that before, she said "I got it so I know it's true". She goes on to start telling me how this whole thing is made up BS...I had to tell her to shut up, multiple times. A couple 3 searches later and 5, 6 web sites looked at, her "facts" held as much water as Q and stop the steal does. We're fuct, too many are brainwashed by fearmongering propaganda in a cult believing a desperate lying POTUS

[stuckathuntermtn]

Crazy how when you gut education so many people come out fucked. Who could have seen that coming?

[Ted Striker]

Just smart enough to run the machines

[Deebased]

Seems strange to me, as well...

Me too

Its telling to.watch how.closely people adhere to their indoctrination whilst bemoaning a side they view as adversaries.

There's something to.be said about.super positioning over empty sets.