Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[dan_pdx]

I've traveled in China a few times over the last 5 years or so and the infrastructure difference between here and there is staggering. They built 10k miles of high speed rail in something like 10 years and the train stations and airports even in second tier cities are beautiful and modern. Look at the NYC airports for a study in contrasts. We haven't been willing to invest in ourselves for a long time and the difference shows. Sad!

[Toadman]

Yep. sucks.

Newshour today mentioned that the federal stockpile of vax that was being released never existed....

Would have loved to have been a Pence fly on the head of Azar as he is being told the cupboards are bare. What a bunch of totally incompetent Aholes.

[bennymac]

I've traveled in China a few times over the last 5 years or so and the infrastructure difference between here and there is staggering. They built 10k miles of high speed rail in something like 10 years and the train stations and airports even in second tier cities are beautiful and modern. Look at the NYC airports for a study in contrasts. We haven't been willing to invest in ourselves for a long time and the difference shows. Sad!

But the helmet a F35 pilot wears costs $400,000 so infrastructure week is now infrastructure weak.

[dan_pdx]

But the helmet a F35 pilot wears costs $400,000 so infrastructure week is now infrastructure weak.

Yeah...and probably wouldn't work without chips that can only be manufactured in China and/or Taiwan. We should probably make Taiwan the 51st state.

[funkendrenchman]

Biden adviser says variants could turn the pandemic into a situation "unlike anything we’ve seen yet"


Michael Osterholm, a coronavirus adviser to President-elect Joe Biden and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said on CNN’s New Day Tuesday, that he worries that in the coming weeks, the coronavirus pandemic will turn into something unlike anything seen before, and most people don’t realize that yet.

“We’re going to suddenly see these variants come to play that based on the experience we’ve seen in Europe, in particular, South Africa, these variants can substantially increase the number of cases,” Osterholm said.
“I worry desperately in the next six to 12 weeks we’re going to see a situation with this pandemic unlike anything we’ve seen yet to date,” Osterholm said. “And that is really a challenge that I don’t think most people realize yet.”

When asked by CNN’s Alisyn Camerota if there was anything that the Biden administration could do to prevent this, Osterholm said the first step is “to get people to understand: This will happen, we are going to see a major increase in cases, the challenge is how many.”

Secondly, he said “we can’t make the vaccine go much faster than it is right now,” adding that while he knows the Biden administration will do everything it can to move vaccine out, other actions are needed now.

“The difference is going to be, are we going to react now or later,” Osterholm said. Like other places, he said that the US will take “dramatic steps” to deal with the variants, but “the question is how soon will we do it? Do we put the brakes on after the cars wrapped around the tree, or we try to put the brakes on before we leave the intersection?”

“That’s the challenge,” he said. “I just don’t know if we’re really prepared to even have that discussion yet.”

[Toadman]

Is this where things go South and we start turning into Zombies?

[Boissal]

My sister tested positive yesterday after a couple days of feeling abnormally tired. She works in the in-patient service at the hospital and despite all the precautions they're taking she knew it was a matter of time.
She's in France where things have been on lock down for some time (they have a fucking curfew in place) so it's pretty much a certainty her husband is also infected. They have a 6 months old baby. My parents got tested today as they spent some time with them last weekend. Grandparents who are old and frail and have been hiding in their appartement for the best part of the last year are getting shot #1 tomorrow, apparently just in time.
Meanwhile my SIL and her husband who both tested positive following an extended period of being dumb fucking assholes who were asking for it are continuously posting on social media about how well they're doing while in quarantine. We get a very different story when SIL calls Ms Boissal and freaks out on the phone while her husband is moaning in the background. They had the audacity to ask her not to tell their parents that they were sick...

[pureantigravity]

"Data on 200,000 elderly Israelis suggests that the first shot alone only lowered infections by 33 per cent—about a third of the roughly 90-per-cent rate that many experts around the world have predicted."

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-v...isor-1.5275234

What's up?

[jono]

Old people have poor immune systems. Still says nothing about 1st shot immunity on day 28, unfortunately.

[MultiVerse]

Yeah, I've had a couple of older relatives who were given the vaccine say they didn't feel a thing and had zero side effects. That's why the vaccine dose is as high as it is, to help spur old immune systems into action.



From the other thread, the positive news coming from the same Israeli study suggests 98% have sterilizing immunity after receiving the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Meaning they will most likely not become carriers and can't infect other people. Those who are given the vaccine develop 6-20 times more antibodies than patients who recovered from the disease.

https://www.ynetnews.com/health_scie...icle/H1jaK7mkd

Edit: fixed link

[old goat]

Yeah, I've had a couple of older relatives who were given the vaccine say they didn't feel a thing and had zero side effects. That's why the vaccine dose is as high as it is, to help spur old immune systems into action.



From the other thread, the positive news coming from the same Israeli study suggests 98% have sterilizing immunity after receiving the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Meaning they will most likely not become carriers and can't infect other people. Those who are given the vaccine develop 6-20 times more antibodies than patients who recovered from the disease.

https://www.ynetnews.com/health_scie...icle/H1jaK7mkd

WTF!! THE VACCINE CAUSES STERILITY???!!! I KNEW IT WAS A CHINESE PLOT TO WIPE US OUT!!!!!

(I'm getting a 404 with your link. According to this post from the world's leading medical journal--Yahoo!News--the study assumes sterilizing immunity based on the high level of antibodies, not based on direct evidence. Wouldn't it make more sense to do PCR tests on nasal swabs on the subjects to see if any were carriers? Wonder why they didn't do that. Or maybe they did and it didn't make it into the web post.)

[DeathRaven]

Oddly, just hours after the installation of the Xoe Bideng regime the WHO announces that the 'gold standard' PCR test is bullshit. Anyone with half a brain has been saying this for >6mos. The current (soon to be previous to allow a MIRACULOUS downturn in covid numbers) testing threshold results in a positive if you've had the common cold in the past year. The scientists who created the test say the high cycle threshold being used currently has "no diagnostic value".

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-...-users-2020-05

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2

Date: 13 January 2021

WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2

Target audience: laboratory professionals and users of IVDs.

Purpose of this notice: clarify information previously provided by WHO. This notice supersedes WHO Information Notice for In Vitro Diagnostic Medical Device (IVD) Users 2020/05 version 1, issued 14 December 2020.

Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.

Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.

WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

Shocked, I am not.

[jono]

Shared that password with Ron Johnson. Super shocking.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Uh, MethRaver/SharinNeedlez/steepconcrete, SARS CoV2 PCR tests are not bullshit.

Your ability to understand and interpret the WHO information release is pretty shitty, though.

Basically they're adding nuance to test interpretation. This happens all the time with any number of medical tests, as clinical experience increases amongst the medical/lab community.

[splat]

Someone smart here told me to check out bambam when I was sure I caught the covid.

Turns out, bambam could really be the shit for knocking down infection rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/h...section=Health

[old goat]

Someone smart here told me to check out bambam when I was sure I caught the covid.

Turns out, bambam could really be the shit for knocking down infection rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/h...ge§ion=Health

I think it's pretty well established that monoclonal antibodies can abort an early Covid infection. If the prophylaxis study pans out after peer review, it seems like the treatment would also be useful for people who have a time-limited, high risk exposure--like taking a morning after pill--but not for someone in an ongoing high risk situation, unless people were prepared to give them a new infusion every few weeks, since the antibodies only last that long. And in that situation we already have vaccines.

[Rideski]

[Thaleia]

Where the hell did you guys see an article saying Canada bought too many vaccines?! I'm in Ontario and we're desperately trying to source more.

[riser4]

I'm in Ontario

So sorry about that.

[bennymac]

Where the hell did you guys see an article saying Canada bought too many vaccines?! I'm in Ontario and we're desperately trying to source more.

they’ve ordered and I think prepaid for the doses in advance of receiving them.

Since no one could predict which company’s vaccine would get approved the government ordered from many different potential suppliers. In theory if every order gets filled there will be a surplus in the end - but not currently.

[Bunion 2020]

Question for the epidemiologist dentites here.

Sister and BIL were in a room with a marriage councilor 9 days ago. Everyone was masked and 6 feet apart, 50 minutes.

The Councilor called today to let them know that she found out she had been exposed the day before and tested positive today and contacted all her client that she had seen after the exposure.

BIL wants to get tested. I told my sister that it was probably a waste of time and that going in for a test puts them at some risk of another exposure.

Thoughts?

[mfcf13]

they’ve ordered and I think prepaid for the doses in advance of receiving them.

Since no one could predict which company’s vaccine would get approved the government ordered from many different potential suppliers. In theory if every order gets filled there will be a surplus in the end - but not currently.

On the other hand, Trump administration turned down the opportunity to purchase more Pfizer doses. Which is not shocking of course, but still pathetic.

[wooley12]

@Bunion.

Going for a test is more risky than staying in the house and less risky than going into a store or office. I'd vote to get tested if testing is available. Seems we've skipped the mass testing part of fighting the virus. Dumb IMO.

[jono]

Bunion's question feels uniquely American. IANAE, but I think there are logical arguments both ways. But there may be an emotional reason to get the test and not wonder if one of them has it and the other doesn't (yet).

[Bunion 2020]

@Jono,

Yeah, purely emotional and more than a little odd. Sis is the one usually prone to freak out and BIL is usually steady Eddie. In this case the positions are reversed and there are wild cards.

My oldest sister (68) lives near by and is special needs. Both of them spent a lot of time with her this week and are worried about passing it along to her. She would not do well with her pre-exists.

And to throw the other Joker, all 3 had their 1st shots on the 14th (Moderna), exposed the next day.

@Wooley, ya think? The utter failure to have easily available and inexpensive testing is infuriating. Somehow the last Administration has been given a pass on that one. BTW they are in Metro-Atlanta.