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  1. #36526
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    And given the accusation of gain of function research, the fact that this one doesn't have a furin cleavage site still leaves the lab in the sights, too, right?

    And if they find actual SARS-CoV-2 in the bats, can't that just mean they caught it from some humans and we'll never know?
    We can probably say with some certainty SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 originated in a bat host.

    We also know the intermediate host for SARS was the palm civet and the camel for MERS. The intermediate host for SARS-CoV-2 in which additional mutations such as a furin cleavage might have happened is still unknown. It took 14 years to nail down the origin of the SARS epidemic.

    So to answer the questions 1) a lab leak is always possible even if entirely zoonotic in origin, lab engineered maybe less so now but still possible 2) finding actual SARS-CoV-2 in bats shouldn't change anything either way because the evolutionary arrow of causality would be clear if that were to happen.

  2. #36527
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    Assuming the virus arose in nature and was collected by the Wuhan lab which scenario is more likely--the virus leaked from a level 4 biocontainment lab or was spread by one or more poor Laotian guano collectors or miners, in a remote part of Laos without the capacity to recognize a novel disease?

  3. #36528
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Assuming the virus arose in nature and was collected by the Wuhan lab which scenario is more likely--the virus leaked from a level 4 biocontainment lab or was spread by one or more poor Laotian guano collectors or miners, in a remote part of Laos without the capacity to recognize a novel disease?
    ya but where is the conspiracy
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  4. #36529
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    I got your conspiracy. Clearly those dastardly* Wuhan virologists created human SARS2, then created several bat variant precursors, and released them all. Or maybe it was the Russians, releasing it in China. Or... it was the Clintons did it with the Soros money in Laos.

    * Since we make other unfounded accusations, anything goes.

  5. #36530
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    I knew we could get there. High5!

  6. #36531
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    Half effort to make up for shitposting today. Though arguably it's still a shitpost as there's 1000s of studies and I'm not qualified to pick one. I saw this on TWiV
    https://web.cels.anl.gov/~cgraziani/vax_vs_delta.pdf
    The Delta Variant Had Negligible Impact on COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in the USA

    This study uses several public datasets to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against PCR-diagnosed infection over time. They find VE around 90% in mid-May, dipping to around 80% by mid-July, then rising back to 90% in mid-Sept. They speculate on a number of possible causes, and call for more data with more granularity to investigate further. They suggest some of the VE rebound may be due to younger people joining the vaccinated cohort, though other factors such as behavior change could be equally important.

    Any way, similar results from a half-dozen counties and a half-dozen states, and amazingly includes recent data.

    Some of these datasets are the same ones I've looked at to "check" the official numbers. I haven't tried to square why some other countries (UK and Israel come to mind) report more VE drop and no rebound.

  7. #36532
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    ^ The takeaway from the paper: the rapid growth of the Delta variant in the U.S.A. from near-zero prevalence to near-dominance has had a negligible impact on vaccine efficacy.

    Instead, the “wave” behavior or drop and rebound of vaccine effectiveness has more to do with a transfer of demographic risk factors such as age, comorbidities, and other clinical vulnerabilities, between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups as vaccination rates increased in various demographic cohorts.

    In other words vaccine demographics, not variants, is what matters. The proportion of vaccinated people matters, but who they are and how they cluster also matters. All three US vaccines remained relatively stable and quite well-performing, despite the dramatic concurrent rise of the Delta variant.

  8. #36533
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    ^
    In other words vaccine demographics, not variants, is what matters. The proportion of vaccinated people matters, but who they are and how they cluster also matters.
    Also the demographics of who gets tested and how often, which changes over time. There are many possible ramifications of this. One example--younger unvaccinated people get test more because their job requires either vaccination or testing, so more asymptomatic cases among the unvaccinated are detected. There are many other ways in which testing could influence the results--in both directions.

  9. #36534
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    Yeah the data collected on humans is messy and complicated and that can give us misleading numbers. A lot of the studies especially early in the Delta wave that came out of Israel were too messy to be useful. The ones that weren't messy don’t show meaningful waning against disease, yet.

  10. #36535
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Yeah the data collected on humans is messy and complicated and that can give us misleading numbers. A lot of the studies especially early in the Delta wave that came out of Israel were too messy to be useful. The ones that weren't messy don’t show meaningful waning against disease, yet.
    OTOH the data on hospitalizations vs vaccine status seems pretty clear cut and shows the same thing.

  11. #36536
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    Nov 2005
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    Is there any known data on the difference in second shot side effects between those that took mRNAs at the minimum schedule vs. longer interval, like in Canada/UK? I've come up empty on side effects for the second shot--looks like maybe they're lower for a third, though. TIA

  12. #36537
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    This explains so much these days!


  13. #36538
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    Big in Japan
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    X

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  14. #36539
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    truckee
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    Wearing a mask in the car is easier than cleaning the rotting food and dead rodents out of my car. And cheaper than buying a little bag of potpourri or hanging a pine tree from my mirror,

  15. #36540
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    Dec 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Wearing a mask in the car is easier than cleaning the rotting food and dead rodents out of my car. And cheaper than buying a little bag of potpourri or hanging a pine tree from my mirror,
    I laffed. And threw up a little in my mouth.

  16. #36541
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    EWA
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    So annoying!

    Went to the butcher and no one was wearing masks - not the person behind the counter and no other customers except for one guy who came in after me. After one more maskless person came in I said to myself "fuck this" and left and the only other masked person followed right behind me.

    I'm not going to patronize your business if you don't care about me or your community (or following the statewide mask mandate). You're not the only butcher in town.
    Last edited by KQ; 10-01-2021 at 08:17 PM.
    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  17. #36542
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    Dec 2004
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    Where the sheets have no stains
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    Ya know, even without fucking Covid doesn't it make some sense to wear a mask when you are cutting up and wrapping somebodies food?
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

  18. #36543
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    Ya know, even without fucking Covid doesn't it make some sense to wear a mask when you are cutting up and wrapping somebodies food?
    This thought has occurred to me also.

    Yanno, I don't even notice I have a mask on anymore.
    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  19. #36544
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    This thought has occurred to me also.

    Yanno, I don't even notice I have a mask on anymore.
    You might feel differently if you had to wear one at work all day.

    I went in a fish shop yesterday, nobody wearing masks except my 89 yo dad. We ordered a pound of smoked ciscoes and left, took about five minutes. Risk assessment low.

  20. #36545
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    I was at the Coach in Wilson, I had just come down from a hot pass lap, and instinctively went inside without a mask, yeah, my bad. Before I could even turn around, (I was still wearing a full face helmet) the dick working the liquor store yelled at me to mask up…he wasn’t wearing a mask, either.
    WTF
    Forum Cross Pollinator

  21. #36546
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    Ya know, even without fucking Covid doesn't it make some sense to wear a mask when you are cutting up and wrapping somebodies food?
    I'd worry a lot more about the E coli etc on the meat.

  22. #36547
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    Absolute must read (too long to c&p)

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ge-of-monsters
    Forum Cross Pollinator

  23. #36548
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    Goulder
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    I was at the Coach in Wilson, I had just come down from a hot pass lap, and instinctively went inside without a mask, yeah, my bad. Before I could even turn around, (I was still wearing a full face helmet) the dick working the liquor store yelled at me to mask up…he wasn’t wearing a mask, either.
    WTF
    Holy hell, shit like this has nearly made me an antimasker.

    I had an experience on the slopes where someone yelled at me from the chair when I pulled my buff down to cheer my kids on a jump.

    Luckily, the mask madness has chilled out in my neck of the woods.
    the drugs made me realize it's not about the drugs

  24. #36549
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    Jun 2021
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    221
    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    You might feel differently if you had to wear one at work all day.

    I went in a fish shop yesterday, nobody wearing masks except my 89 yo dad. We ordered a pound of smoked ciscoes and left, took about five minutes. Risk assessment low.
    I wear an kn95 all day at work and I dont notice it anymore. I actually kinda like it when its cold out.

    I pretty much always mask up for indoor or close proximity things even though I'm vaxxed and even it it seems low risk just because I have to ask people to put their masks on or pull them over their noses all day long and it sucks. We've been doing this for over a year and people act like its a brand new rule that I, personally made up and implemented.

    I dont go directly to verbally telling them. I start by making eye contact and touching my mask. If that doesn't work I ask. If that doesn't work I tell them they have to. About 60% of the people cop an attitude.

  25. #36550
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    Sep 2009
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    N side, Terrace, BC
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    Quote Originally Posted by KQ View Post
    So annoying!

    Went to the butcher and no one was wearing masks - not the person behind the counter and no other customers except for one guy who came in after me. After one more maskless person came in I said to myself "fuck this" and left and the only other masked person followed right behind me.

    I'm not going to patronize your business if you don't care about me or your community (or following the statewide mask mandate). You're not the only butcher in town.
    FKNA KQ. When those batshit crazy A Holes see money walking out the door...
    Hit the idiots where it hurts - their wallet.
    “I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.”
    ― Kurt Vonnegut, A Man Without a Country

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