Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Lvovsky]

Things are getting weird on the PPE and ventilator front.

Days after the Trump admin asserted that federal medical supplies are "our stockpile" and "not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use", both states and companies (Kaiser, in particular) are claiming that the feds are intercepting their shipments.

This could be a good thing, depending on how much we trust the Trump crew to manage supplies effectively. Or, you know, maybe it's just the next chapter in an epic clusterfuck.

Wait for the red states getting slammed AND get full support of trump government. Yes, he is that kind of guy.

[SkiCougar]

Agreed, after this epidemic, let us become people with the ability to remember

I am curious as to how people will react once given the all clear. are people going to mostly stay in, fill stadiums and will vacation hotspots remain mostly empty, if the infection numbers pick up a week or ten days later will restaurants close again. I can envision it being a year before things are even 75% what they were in January.

[bodywhomper]

If I understood correctly that chart & UI, the estimation for "Sweden" was on (7th April) 67, Swedish government just announced 114 (DN.se).
So, about 60% increase from yesterday (77)?

There is some additional information here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

My initial take away is that they are predicting high mortality per total population, when compared to a place like California.

I’m not sure about the EU projections, but the group’s model projections for the US assumed that strong mitigation measures would be implemented within the week if they had not already been implemented.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I love reading how Trump did not close the borders soon enough.




Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Why? You get that he didn't actually cease travel to/from China right?

[altasnob]

Today’s update to healthdata.org includes modeling output for different countries, including Sweden.

Situation doesn't look good in UK

[LeeLau]

I am curious as to how people will react once given the all clear. are people going to mostly stay in, fill stadiums and will vacation hotspots remain mostly empty, if the infection numbers pick up a week or ten days later will restaurants close again. I can envision it being a year before things are even 75% what they were in January.

Many people have their asses so economically penetrated by the triple headed black mamba without lube they won't be in any shape to spend any decent amount of $. The same goes for business. I'd say you're about right

[Core Shot]

Since this thread has gone totally pollyasshat, Trump didn't get himself elected, Steve Bannon did. Trump just spewed bullshit for months are idiots lapped it up. His campaign was a joke, his stump speech was shit, but between Bannon, Russia and Facebook weak minded people are it up.

Muh Russia and muh Facebook fixed the erection?
Lol

But yeah. Steve bannon tapped into the angry middle class and put words in trumps mouth

Trump is an idiot. But his fake message spoke to the middle class.

[MultiVerse]

I am curious as to how people will react once given the all clear. are people going to mostly stay in, fill stadiums and will vacation hotspots remain mostly empty, if the infection numbers pick up a week or ten days later will restaurants close again. I can envision it being a year before things are even 75% what they were in January.

My hope is we become really good at testing and tracing ahead of a vaccine. Maybe track and trace allows restaurants to reopen but baring a vaccine or a really good treatment, it's going to be a while before we fill stadiums.

I don't think there is a master plan for an all clear other than betting on human ingenuity. Even so called herd immunity strategies would take time. We've all seen the infection/death charts which create an impression that things will progress along a continuum but the reality is something more like peaks and waves repeatedly crisscrossing a country. I think we need to accept for the time being that nobody completely understands the coronavirus, nobody knows where the off ramp is.

[The AD]

I am curious as to how people will react once given the all clear. are people going to mostly stay in, fill stadiums and will vacation hotspots remain mostly empty, if the infection numbers pick up a week or ten days later will restaurants close again. I can envision it being a year before things are even 75% what they were in January.

I bet if new cases drop to close to zero you'll see people going out almost immediately. It will take some time before things are back to where they were, but herd mentality is powerful.

[Benny Profane]

Many people have their asses so economically penetrated by the triple headed black mamba without lube they won't be in any shape to spend any decent amount of $. The same goes for business. I'd say you're about right

But, but, ...1200 dollars!

[Benny Profane]

I bet if new cases drop to close to zero you'll see people going out almost immediately. It will take some time before things are back to where they were, but herd mentality is powerful.

Watch Italy.

[hutash]

Judging by the Chinese, we will flock to place and quickly show we ar the social species we evolved to being. We have gathered in together, in ever larger crowds since we came down out of the trees, and for 99.999% of the time it served us fine. We will go back to football games, concerts bars, etc. like nothing ever happened (it will take a while, but not much.) If we learned anything from this is that pandemic planning (and public health in general), is worth spending money.

[Benny Profane]

Muh Russia and muh Facebook fixed the erection?
Lol

But yeah. Steve bannon tapped into the angry middle class and put words in trumps mouth

Trump is an idiot. But his fake message spoke to the middle class.

Steve Bannon hasn't been around for a long time, but Trump is still King. That drunk gets more credit than he deserves.

[GeezerSteve]

I am curious as to how people will react once given the all clear. are people going to mostly stay in, fill stadiums and will vacation hotspots remain mostly empty, if the infection numbers pick up a week or ten days later will restaurants close again. I can envision it being a year before things are even 75% what they were in January.

Too soon to predict the next year, but yeah, it'll take awhile for crowd levels to ramp up to pre-Covid-19 levels.

Long term, we children of Great Depression era parents are looking through a different prism than younger folks. I will not be surprised if there's a trend towards less petty consumption of shit we don't need. I hope.

I expect significant flight of 55+ y.o. boomers out of the cities via earlier-than-planned retirements and some resultant softening of big city residential RE markets.

A big chunk of brick & mortar retail will never come back. That trend was happening. Covid-19 will greatly accelerate it.

And more masks during future flu seasons.

[bodywhomper]

Situation doesn't look good in UK

Per healthdata.org projection today, mortality by early August at a country level as % of population:
Sweden: 0.04%
UK: 0.1%
Germany: 0.01%
Italy: 0.03%

[schuss]

I thought the RESPONSE of the current administration has been so incompetent--even malicious--and so exhaustively documented as to not need mentioning. But the lack of PREPAREDNESS goes back a long way. And just one example of something that can't be blamed entirely on Trump--the testing fiasco. The CDC was tasked with turning out tests on a scale it did not have the experience or infrastructure for. Adding to the stockpile has been neglected longer than Trump has been in office. It's important that we not blame Trump for the whole fiasco because there's a good chance the same thing will happen with the next pandemic, no matter who is President.

As a leader you own it all, and the concentration of incompetent lackies means there's no one in the room to say "that's bullshit, we aren't waiting, let's get the other tests".

[altasnob]

Per healthdata.org projection today, mortality by early August at a country level as % of population:
Sweden: 0.04%
UK: 0.1%
Germany: 0.01%
Italy: 0.03%

Ya, IHME model has more dead in UK than Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, combined. And not far off total deaths in US.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

[evdog]

I'm not sure anyone else would have restricted travel from China sooner. Despite warnings this thing crept up on everyone. I don't blame Trump for that. But rather than stick their heads in the sand I think most presidents not named Trump would have moved faster on certain steps like social distancing like Governors of Ohio, CA, etc and much of the country would be a lot better off that it currently is.

As for recovery, it will be interesting. Too many people are clueless and entitled, I think people will be back swarming beaches and public spaces as soon as they are allowed to. I can see a rush to visit vacation destinations while they are quiet before everyone else rushes back to visit them, especially if lots of people are out of work. Time to take a break and go find yourself! I think companies will be more conservative and it will take longer to resume the same levels of corporate travel, conferences, etc. Financial distress of many companies will definitely hold back recovery. I just hope it doesn't lead to mass turnover of family/independent business to large corporations.

[topwater]

Just the other day I read a first person account of flying home from Hong Kong to Atlanta, which is a 24 hour experience, and not once after the east was anybody concerned if this person could be a carrier of the virus. This was just about six days ago. It's pretty shocking to read that stuff. Many accounts of just walking through customs at JFK, Hi, Bye, where's my Uber?

Oh, but, I just remembered I read an account of a British guy and his Chinese wife who flew back to the mainland about 10 days ago, and, hoo boy, were they checked every step of the way, and, of course, quarantined for 14 days at the end.

There were plenty of stories right after the European Travel Ban about citizens returning from hot zones in Europe, letting Customs know they had been in Northern Italy and the response being "Welcome home".

Hell, after cancelling my flight the night of the travel ban announcement I was returning back to NC from Newark and there was a guy four rows ahead bragging about being in Northern Italy that morning and that he wasn't going to self-isolate.

[SkiCougar]

https://www.wired.com/story/the-asia...o-do-it-again/

and the rebound:
"The Asian Countries That Beat Covid-19 Have to Do It Again"

"Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan had flattened the curve. Then travelers from the US and Europe began reimporting the virus."

some areas that have opened up may have to close again when travelers come in.

[Casey E]

Winning the EC -- while losing the popular vote by 3 million -- by running as a compulsive lying divisive demagogic xenophobe?

The history books will decide whether Trump achieved success as POTUS. I suggest taking the short position on that.

The term is now Hocus Potus.

[highangle]

Chokus IMPOTUS imopascens

[riser4]

And the fix is in. We are going to wake up from this wondering where all the money went. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/polit...nds/index.html

[Deebased]

bill gates gave back

trump doesn't donate a dime

You forgot he donated his salary :-0

Trumps an asshole.

[Mofro261]

Hey Covid-19.