Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[jono]

It's been discussed way, way, back that various countries will hit herd immunity at different % positive, but 60% of the population positive is a general rule of thumb. However, from my understanding, you start seeing the effects of herd immunity well before you hit 60%. So for instance, if 40% of a population has been infected, you will not have herd immunity but the virus will have a harder time spreading than, say, 5% of the population infected. This is what I am wondering. Not saying Sweden (or NYC) has herd immunity. But is the slowing there caused by the effects of herd immunity? Rhetorical question. I don't think anyone on earth knows the answer to this. Just something to think about.

The real question is: how many non-immune people does an infected person contact in the course of an average infection? If 5% of total contacts are immune then that's a 5% reduction in R0. If total humans contacted in TX is 40 and in Sweden it's 20 that has a much bigger impact.

If masks reduce the number of viruses transferred by 70% that's an even bigger impact. Do Swedes complain about their freedumbs or do they see Donald Trump going maskless and put one on to feel superior? Lots of ways to impact this stuff that don't show up in government mandates. Including front-loading death among the most at-risk and most risk tolerant, but how to compare that?

Another advantage for Sweden: what's their incarceration rate?

[huckbucket]

Mofro or anyone else--refresh my memory. Does vaccine effectiveness depend on maintaining constant high antibody levels, or can the antibody levels fall but then rise rapidly when the host is exposed to the antigen again?

Analogy--the great toilet paper shortage, caused by too much commercial TP in giant rolls for offices and not enough for home. Eventually the supply chain was adapted to correct the imbalance. Once the pandemic is over we will need commercial TP again, but when the next pandemic hits we will know how to adapt much more quickly and we should have plenty of TP at home.

Not an immunologist, but the purpose of immunizations is to create memory b-cells that encode antibodies with specificity for the pathogen. There are many states of maturity in the B-cell world, but you only get clonal expansion (and therefore high antibody production) in the presence of antigen. So the memory b cells will remain in circulation until they see antigen again at which point they expand. In the graphic below, think about the "antigen uptake" event on the left as the immunization.

[XXX-er]

Mofro or anyone else--refresh my memory. Does vaccine effectiveness depend on maintaining constant high antibody levels, or can the antibody levels fall but then rise rapidly when the host is exposed to the antigen again?

Analogy--the great toilet paper shortage, caused by too much commercial TP in giant rolls for offices and not enough for home. Eventually the supply chain was adapted to correct the imbalance. Once the pandemic is over we will need commercial TP again, but when the next pandemic hits we will know how to adapt much more quickly and we should have plenty of TP at home.

since I instaled a bidet I will probably still be on that same pack of TP I bought in january

I wonder if the stuff has a shelf life ?

I'm reading that people who had covid are not immmune

[jono]

Not an immunologist, but the purpose of immunizations is to create memory b-cells that encode antibodies with specificity for the pathogen. There are many states of maturity in the B-cell world, but you only get clonal expansion (and therefore high antibody production) in the presence of antigen. So the memory b cells will remain in circulation until they see antigen again at which point they expand. In the graphic below, think about the "antigen uptake" event on the left as the immunization.

So is it more likely that SARS/MERS left behind antigens (or apparent antigens) that kept antibody production up a bit longer than "normal," rather than just that SARS-Cov-2 antibodies fall off at an accelerated rate? (Leaving aside the question of reliability in the one small study, obviously.)

[Benny Profane]

You should have done it 2 months ago, when other states (even those horrid red ones) were helping you out and before everyone with >$20 to their name moved out.

Such an asshole.

[Mofro261]

So is it more likely that SARS/MERS left behind antigens (or apparent antigens) that kept antibody production up a bit longer than "normal," rather than just that SARS-Cov-2 antibodies fall off at an accelerated rate? (Leaving aside the question of reliability in the one small study, obviously.)

No, same for those as well. Data from SARS neutralizing Ab, again on a small population:



Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Mar;11(3):411-6. doi: 10.3201/eid1103.040906.


Notice the fall off in absolute Nab concentration in the day 29-100 period for SARS, but the continued presence over time 201+ days.

This is very much what happens in the context of immunization as well, rapid rise to a peak Ab and then a gradual decline. If the decline is below a level associated with protection, then a booster is needed.

[uglymoney]

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/no...bZu35Z5BNBC1M8

[Benny Profane]

I think this is a big part of it. The initial hit on nursing homes is probably largely over. Now the new infections are being driven by younger people who are back out congregating. That's driving up infection rates but keeping death rates low, but that could change because eventually these younger folks are going to infect more at risk individuals.

There's a ton of older people around here that are still self isolating.

[seano732]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1275854598146871296

Meanwhile in FL.



More:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1275918237218353154


You cannot escape GAWD!!!!

https://twitter.com/umussbekidding/s...391331334?s=21

[KQ]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1275854598146871296

Meanwhile in FL.



More:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1275918237218353154


You cannot escape GAWD!!!!

I can imagine that a huge dust cloud from Africa turning the sky dark over FLA could really send those nutjobs over the edge with their god fearin' ways.

Historic Saharan dust plume that could turn skies milky will move into the US today

[jono]

No, same for those as well. Data from SARS neutralizing Ab, again on a small population:



Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Mar;11(3):411-6. doi: 10.3201/eid1103.040906.


Notice the fall off in absolute Nab concentration in the day 29-100 period for SARS, but the continued presence over time 201+ days.

This is very much what happens in the context of immunization as well, rapid rise to a peak Ab and then a gradual decline. If the decline is below a level associated with protection, then a booster is needed.

Thanks, that graph clarified it a lot for me.

[bodywhomper]

It's been discussed way, way, back that various countries will hit herd immunity at different % positive, but 60% of the population positive is a general rule of thumb. However, from my understanding, you start seeing the effects of herd immunity well before you hit 60%. So for instance, if 40% of a population has been infected, you will not have herd immunity but the virus will have a harder time spreading than, say, 5% of the population infected. This is what I am wondering. Not saying Sweden (or NYC) has herd immunity. But is the slowing there caused by the effects of herd immunity? Rhetorical question. I don't think anyone on earth knows the answer to this. Just something to think about.

The mid-May reporting about Sweden was that at the end of April, they expected Stockholm to have 20% of the population to have antibodies, their testing showed that they were only at 7.5%, which opened up a range of questions.

Aren’t a lot of Swedes now living in their rural homes and outside the denser cities?

[The SnowShow]

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/no...bZu35Z5BNBC1M8

Ugh, I read that shit and it makes me not want to do anything with friends, kids or family.

The one older woman was infected, even though she stayed out on the porch?

[old goat]

Not an immunologist, but the purpose of immunizations is to create memory b-cells that encode antibodies with specificity for the pathogen. There are many states of maturity in the B-cell world, but you only get clonal expansion (and therefore high antibody production) in the presence of antigen. So the memory b cells will remain in circulation until they see antigen again at which point they expand. In the graphic below, think about the "antigen uptake" event on the left as the immunization.

so the disappearance of circulating Ab in the small Chinese study--assuming it is concerned--doesn't mean those people aren't immune, since they have memory B cells which will produce Ab when needed. Is that correct?
The other implication of the study is that if we want to use antibody level as a sign of previous infection and MAYBE immunity, we have to test fairly soon after the infection. If we wait too long the Ab might be gone. Which also means that antibody tests might underestimate the prevalence of previous infection in the population.

BTW--the good news about the surge in cases is that there should be no trouble finding populations in the US to test a vaccine on.

[Rideski]

Not sure who or how would accomplish it. But from my layman’s perspective, the two barometers we have (infected and dead) aren’t enough. Seems like there could be a “really fucking sick and surprised I made it through” with or without hospitalization.

[altasnob]

The mid-May reporting about Sweden was that at the end of April, they expected Stockholm to have 20% of the population to have antibodies, their testing showed that they were only at 7.5%, which opened up a range of questions.

Aren’t a lot of Swedes now living in their rural homes and outside the denser cities?

When the NYC study said on May 2, 19.9% had antibodies, anyone who wanted to argue against the herd immunity approach focused on the margin of error of the test to bring the number down. So you can use that same argument to bring the Sweden 7.5% number up. And Sweden's top doc contends the 7.5% was in mid-April. Obviously much higher today. How much higher? We need a new serology test.

Several have suggested Sweden's summer homes to explain the drop in infection rate. I did a quick google search to see how many Swedes actually are wealthy enough to spend their summers in a second home and found roughly 50% either own, or have access to a second home (don't know how accurate this is). Pretty high compared to, say, the US. But Sweden, just like other wealthy countries, still has their poor minority laborers crammed away in close quarters in the city riding crowded public transportation. So I don't think the Swede's propensity for second homes explains everything.

It's a very real possibility that of all major metro areas on earth, NYC has the highest percentage of immune in their population. And the rate of new infection/death in NYC has been super low for the last several weeks.

[altasnob]

CDC says between 5 percent and 8 percent of Americans have been infected to date.The number of Americans who have been infected with the coronavirus is most likely about 10 times higher than the 2.3 million cases that have been reported.

[AK47bp]

My neighbor’s parents back in NY got Covid and his grandma died.

Both parents tested positive and the grandma was positive before she died.

His parents took antibody tests 2 months after they recovered and both had no Covid antibodies.

Hopefully a testing error on both but still a little concerning if the antibodies go away that fast.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[pureantigravity]

Some people on sailing channels I follow got it when they went dockside.
They seemed healthy apart from being in their 70's.
One (he) died.
Sad.

They used to call Pneumonia 'old mans gift' because it saved the infirm elderly from a long period of suffering - usually from all other sorts of less pleasant maladies like slow organ failure, cancers, amputations, etc.. I didn't know that until my dad mentioned it. Not that I wish anyone to get sick. For sure, some of the dead are far better off now than in the intolerable conditions they were kept in terribly managed old age "'care"' homes.

[bodywhomper]

California looks like it’ll flex it $$ power with mask wearing, threatening to not provide COVID emergency $$ to cities and counties that cannot demonstrate compliance the the mask wearing ordered by the governor.

[smmokan]

California looks like it’ll flex it $$ power with mask wearing, threatening to not provide COVID emergency $$ to cities and counties that cannot demonstrate compliance the the mask wearing ordered by the governor.

California has money? Who knew.

[Benny Profane]

When the NYC study said on May 2, 19.9% had antibodies, anyone who wanted to argue against the herd immunity approach focused on the margin of error of the test to bring the number down. So you can use that same argument to bring the Sweden 7.5% number up. And Sweden's top doc contends the 7.5% was in mid-April. Obviously much higher today. How much higher? We need a new serology test.

Several have suggested Sweden's summer homes to explain the drop in infection rate. I did a quick google search to see how many Swedes actually are wealthy enough to spend their summers in a second home and found roughly 50% either own, or have access to a second home (don't know how accurate this is). Pretty high compared to, say, the US. But Sweden, just like other wealthy countries, still has their poor minority laborers crammed away in close quarters in the city riding crowded public transportation. So I don't think the Swede's propensity for second homes explains everything.

It's a very real possibility that of all major metro areas on earth, NYC has the highest percentage of immune in their population. And the rate of new infection/death in NYC has been super low for the last several weeks.

That's because nobody has been working or socializing together.

[old goat]

Not sure who or how would accomplish it. But from my layman’s perspective, the two barometers we have (infected and dead) aren’t enough. Seems like there could be a “really fucking sick and surprised I made it through” with or without hospitalization.

Useful in a descriptive way to let people know the risk they take by dismissing the virus but not practical to use in a statistical sense because it would be very difficult to specify what qualifies as "really fucking sick". Even hospitalization is subjective since there are fixed criteria for who is hospitalized.

[KQ]

Lots of wine tourist in DT W2 today and it's only Thursday.







60% of US states are reporting increases in new cases

At least 30 states across the US — 60% — are reporting an increase in new coronavirus cases in the past week, compared to the previous week.

Of those states, 13 are reporting a 50% or greater increase.

New cases are trending down in 11 states, while nine are seeing steady numbers.

Here's a look at where things stand:

[glademaster]

That's because nobody has been working or socializing together.

This. My parents are still functioning the same way they were at the height of the "lockdown" in the tri-state area. One trip per month to the grocery/liquor store, N95 and eye protection any time you're in public, no going out to eat or drink, etc.