Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[muted]

Don't get on an airplane unless you absolutely have to. Those filters are only filtering recirculated air.

Why would you HEPA filter fresh air? Recirc through a HEPA makes perfect sense.

Yeah I thought all planes have HEPA filters.

"Most aircraft have robust filter systems. Except for some smaller or much older aircraft, airplanes are equipped with True High-Efficiency Particle Filters (True HEPA) or High-Efficiency Particle Filters (HEPA). These filtration systems then filter and recirculate the air from the cabin and mix it with fresh air."

"In reality, the air is very clean. On all modern aircraft, passengers and crew breathe a mixture of fresh and recirculated air. ... The air circulates until eventually it is drawn into the lower fuselage, where about half of it is vented overboard—sucked out by the pressurization outflow valve."

[LongShortLong]

Even death tolls are incomplete since untested dead go uncounted. And since deaths lag the infection rate, and it's easier to see and understand the geometric nature of the infection rate than death rate, a significant number of people are in denial about exponential growth. The number of discussions I've had with otherwise mentally-grounded individuals who work with math daily but are totally in denial on this has been shocking.

And you're right about the economy, of course. It should be obvious to anyone with a BS meter: no one is offering a quantitative analysis to compare options and concluding that the economy would be better off if we decide to ignore the disease.

The only arguments to "reopen the economy" are qualitative feelings-based nonsense that ignores the inevitable realities of that, both in lives and dollars. You can wish in one hand, hope in the other and crap in the gripping hand and see which one fills up first--just don't touch your face afterwards!

Math individuals in denial...

I was shocked to see WSJ editorials a couple weeks ago suggesting the virus could be ignored because case/death counts were so low. Presumably anyone intelligent enough to write for WSJ has sufficient background in math to understand compounding returns, how it benefits investors, and how it can kill borrowers. The smallest cognitive leap applies the compounding returns concept to corona. They used to have fairly high standards for reason and facts. Did WSJ catch the polyass?

[funkendrenchman]

Math individuals in denial...

I was shocked to see WSJ editorials a couple weeks ago suggesting the virus could be ignored because case/death counts were so low. Presumably anyone intelligent enough to write for WSJ has sufficient background in math to understand compounding returns, how it benefits investors, and how it can kill borrowers. The smallest cognitive leap applies the compounding returns concept to corona. They used to have fairly high standards for reason and facts. Did WSJ catch the polyass?

They need to get some mathematicians on these news shows to call them out on all the bad math going on.

[funkendrenchman]

Today’s Rules

1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.
2. Masks are useless, but maybe you should wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.
3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.
4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.
6. Gloves won't help, but they can still help.
7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it's important to GO OUT.
8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.
9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.
10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms.
12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand and it's better not to go out, well, but no…
13. It's better to get some fresh air, but you get looked at very wrong when you get some fresh air, and most importantly, you don't go to parks or walk. But don’t sit down, except that you can do that now if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).
14. You can't go to retirement homes, but you have to take care of the elderly and bring food and medication.
15. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too?
17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview must start with " I don't want to trigger panic, but…"
18. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.
19. You can walk around with a friend but not with your family if they don't live under the same roof.
20. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.
21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn't say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.
22. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room. In one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.
23. We count the number of deaths but we don't know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that's what they will die of
24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications).
25. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity, so when it circulates… but we must no longer be locked up for that?

[ate'em]

Today’s Rules

Were stupid the last time you posted this.

[jono]

Math individuals in denial...

I was shocked to see WSJ editorials a couple weeks ago suggesting the virus could be ignored because case/death counts were so low. Presumably anyone intelligent enough to write for WSJ has sufficient background in math to understand compounding returns, how it benefits investors, and how it can kill borrowers. The smallest cognitive leap applies the compounding returns concept to corona. They used to have fairly high standards for reason and facts. Did WSJ catch the polyass?

Perfect example, and I've been wondering how the miracle of compound interest crowd has gone so thoroughly daft, too. Might be just another case of pump and dump: the attempt to alter opinion is not so different from hiding masks from the general public.

[Rideski]

April 19: Gilpin County locks doors to outside world. Unless you live there. Then you can go out for a sammich and bring it back.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Yeah I thought all planes have HEPA filters.

"Most aircraft have robust filter systems. Except for some smaller or much older aircraft, airplanes are equipped with True High-Efficiency Particle Filters (True HEPA) or High-Efficiency Particle Filters (HEPA). These filtration systems then filter and recirculate the air from the cabin and mix it with fresh air."

"In reality, the air is very clean. On all modern aircraft, passengers and crew breathe a mixture of fresh and recirculated air. ... The air circulates until eventually it is drawn into the lower fuselage, where about half of it is vented overboard—sucked out by the pressurization outflow valve."

When I'm on a plane I'm generally not concerned with the air. Every surface, though..

[funkendrenchman]

Were stupid the last time you posted this.

Don’t know how I possibly could have missed it in this thread. Stupid, but still true. We barely know more now than we did weeks ago.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Math individuals in denial...

I was shocked to see WSJ editorials a couple weeks ago suggesting the virus could be ignored because case/death counts were so low. Presumably anyone intelligent enough to write for WSJ has sufficient background in math to understand compounding returns, how it benefits investors, and how it can kill borrowers. The smallest cognitive leap applies the compounding returns concept to corona. They used to have fairly high standards for reason and facts. Did WSJ catch the polyass?

Speaking of ROI, how many rubles do you think are going into promoting these "Liberate" rallies?

The Russians can sacrifice a million dead people from CV, it's just another chapter in Being Russian, and meanwhile for that and petty cash they can kill thousands of Americans and our governing system at the same time.

[bennymac]

Right now Medicare has determined that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you’ll get paid $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator, you get $39,000; three times as much. Nobody can tell me, after 35 years in the world of medicine, that sometimes those kinds of things [have] impact on what we do.

"Some physicians really have a bent towards public health and they will put down influenza or whatever because that’s their preference," Jensen added. "I try to stay very specific, very precise. If I know I’ve got pneumonia, that’s what’s going on the death certificate. I’m not going to add stuff just because it’s convenient."

How do those charges that the hospital bills the insurance company compare to a non-covid patient with pneumonia needing admission +/- ventilator? Without that info this is just misleading.

The quote about death certificates is also misleading - not at all how that works.

Overall I give this post a 4/10.

[bennymac]

In my little window in the health care world (yes, I was a teenage phlebotomist) the thing that struck me was how much the health system relied on nurses and med techs. Trust them.

Relied on them to function effectively as a system and be a helpful source of info about the patients they are looking after? Yes absolutely 100%.

Relied on them to be a source of valid medical information on a population level? No fucking way. Worse than Karen the hairstylist down the street.

[Buster Highmen]

Relied on them to be a source of valid medical information on a population level? No fucking way. Worse than Karen the hairstylist down the street.

Relative to most of the doctors.

[bennymac]

Relative to most of the doctors.

You have really shitty doctors then

[Core Shot]

How do those charges that the hospital bills the insurance company compare to a non-covid patient with pneumonia needing admission +/- ventilator? Without that info this is just misleading.

The quote about death certificates is also misleading - not at all how that works.

Overall I give this post a 4/10.

Yes. The snopes proved the statement.
But not the covid paranoias
There’s no bonus for Covid.
We agree on that

[Benny Profane]

So, a historical question. I have read that the 1918 flu took down young, healthy people, but was that in both the first and second waves? Did it mutate between those two waves? Was the death demographic different?

[bennymac]

Interestingly one local hospital is resisting vents, and pushing high oxygen as long as possible. And the other hospital is run by a Karen that sedates you and jams a tube down your throat right away because that’s protocol and always has been. Notwithstanding actual feedback from hospitals in the war zones that venting covid is bad.

The jury is still very much out on the “venting covid is bad” - the vast majority of people that die from covid in hospital (excluding those that have a do not intubate wish) are likely gonna die on a ventilator - because that’s the last step in increasingly aggressive care in a person getting worse (ignoring lung bypass machines which are rare)

Does that mean the ventilator killed them?

The debate you are picking up on is around early intubation vs trials of high flow oxygen - which is better and when. Also being debated is ventilator protocols and settings in intubated patients with covid. Those are as complicated a debate as can be had in medicine and cannot be boiled down to “venting covid is bad”. Using inflammatory language like “sedates you and jams a tube down your throat” to make your point is transparent.

[KQ]

So, a historical question. I have read that the 1918 flu took down young, healthy people, but was that in both the first and second waves? Did it mutate between those two waves? Was the death demographic different?

That flu cause a cytokine storm in healthy individuals with strong immune systems.

[bennymac]

So, a historical question. I have read that the 1918 flu took down young, healthy people, but was that in both the first and second waves? Did it mutate between those two waves? Was the death demographic different?

It did mutate but people that had first type remained immune. Doesn’t mean same thing happens in covid or other pandemics with mutation. Good question though about whether or not the demographics of deaths were different in round two. That could be affected by a lot of the youth getting the first type during the war deployment.

[KQ]

How do those charges that the hospital bills the insurance company compare to a non-covid patient with pneumonia needing admission +/- ventilator? Without that info this is just misleading.

The quote about death certificates is also misleading - not at all how that works.

Overall I give this post a 4/10.

What's True
It is plausible that Medicare is paying hospital fees for some COVID-19 cases in the range of the figures given by Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota state senator, during a Fox News interview.

What's False
However, Medicare says it does not make standard, one-size-fits-all payments to hospitals for patients admitted with COVID-19 diagnoses and placed on ventilators. The $13,000 and $39,000 figures appear to be based on generic industry estimates for admitting and treating patients with similar conditions.


https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/me...ovid-patients/

[huckbucket]

That flu cause a cytokine storm in healthy individuals with strong immune systems.

Considering the first cytokine (interferon alpha) wasn't discovered until 1957, I doubt that anybody really knows if that's how people died of the Spanish flu.

Benny ... that's the theory. CV19 doesn't mutate at the same rate as influenza.

[Core Shot]

The jury is still very much out on the “venting covid is bad” - the vast majority of people that die from covid in hospital (excluding those that have a do not intubate wish) are likely gonna die on a ventilator - because that’s the last step in increasingly aggressive care in a person getting worse (ignoring lung bypass machines which are rare)

Does that mean the ventilator killed them?

The debate you are picking up on is around early intubation vs trials of high flow oxygen - which is better and when. Also being debated is ventilator protocols and settings in intubated patients with covid. Those are as complicated a debate as can be had in medicine and cannot be boiled down to “venting covid is bad”. Using inflammatory language like “sedates you and jams a tube down your throat” to make your point is transparent.

No.
The debate I’m “picking up on” is what my md bride tells me after hours and hours of online forums of frontline workers and her own experience.
And the current consensus is if they’re still breathing, let them breathe even if their sats are low. Survival rate is better without the tube.
Obviously if you ain’t breathing you gets the tube.

And yes I used inflammatory language.
You don’t gets the vent without being sedated.
And yes it gets jammed down your vocal chords and into your lungs.

“Ventilator” sounds so soothing.
In reality it’s a shit show.

[KQ]

Considering the first cytokine (interferon alpha) wasn't discovered until 1957, I doubt that anybody really knows if that's how people died of the Spanish flu.

Benny ... that's the theory. CV19 doesn't mutate at the same rate as influenza.

Cytokine storm is now seen as a likely major cause of mortality in the 1918-20 "Spanish flu" -- which killed more than 50 million people worldwide -- and the H1N1 "swine flu" and H5N1 "bird flu" of recent years. ... "That was really the first demonstration that inhibiting the cytokine storm is protective," said Teijaro.Feb 27, 2014

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0227142250.htm

[bennymac]

No.
The debate I’m “picking up on” is what my md bride tells me after hours and hours of online forums of frontline workers and her own experience.
And the current consensus is if they’re still breathing, let them breathe even if their sats are low. Survival rate is better without the tube.
Obviously if you ain’t breathing you gets the tube.

And yes I used inflammatory language.
You don’t gets the vent without being sedated.
And yes it gets jammed down your vocal chords and into your lungs.

“Ventilator” sounds so soothing.
In reality it’s a shit show.

You said “no” and then proceeded to agree with me.

I know how intubation works.

And I understand how “current consensus” works. And that is changing daily. And it can’t be boiled down to simply “venting covid is bad”.

Say that to a frontline doctor or resp tech that is up to speed on covid and they understand the inherent nuances and background information surrounding what you are really saying. Say “venting covid is bad” to someone who isn’t involved (or married to someone who is) at that level of knowledge is misleading.

Same with “survival rate is better without the tube”. On the surface that is misleading unless you have accounted for all other similarities and differences in each case you are comparing. It’s akin to saying “people who have heart attacks but didn’t need CPR do better - therefore CPR is bad and shouldn’t be done”. It’s never that simple.

[Buster Highmen]

You have really shitty doctors then

I worked in a hospital for 2 years. In my experience 2/3 of the doctors couldn't give a rats ass about the patients or their work.

I apologize to doctors who give a shit, but most of them didn't.

In my personal care, both personal physicians I had sucked. One wouldn't refer me for seizures I get and another didn't know that espresso can distort cholesterol tests. The best care I've gotten is in emergency rooms and an ICU experience I had after a seizure.