Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[The AD]

Anyone else notice how many people mispronounce Dr. Birx' name as "Brix?" It's weird.

[Ottime]

and where did you go to school ? laura went to Dartmouth and Virginia law, two of the best in the nation; and I'm pretty sure she got into both on her own merit, I do not know about rudy.

I realize you have personal bents against her, but not dumb. I have bents against maddow, but I do not deny she's wicked smart.

Laura May be smart. But that just makes her a manipulative liar. Maddow May bother you, but she works from the facts.

So is Laura smart, of just plain old dishonest?

I think Rudy’s just has old white man’s pissed at a changing world mind fuck disease. He basically been yelling at clouds for a decade or more now.

[LongShortLong]

Some of that is different definitions for the fatality rate. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the number deaths divided by the number of diagnosed cases whereas the infection fatality rate (IFR) is deaths divided by the number of diagnosed + asymptomatic + estimated undiagnosed.

Currently COVID's U.S. CFR is around 1-to-4% and the IFR 0.3-to-1%. Whereas the flu's CFR is ~0.1% and depending on the season its IFR can be an order of magnitude smaller, somewhere between 0.001-to-0.01%.

As testing improves the IFR for COVID will fall. But from what we've seen elsewhere it is still much more deadly than the flu, both because it is more deadly and because a larger percentage of the population is susceptible.

The good news is COVID is a lot less deadly than a lot people thought early on but the numbers and accounts from health care workers establish this is no ordinary flu.

I don't see it as a lot less deadly. The IFR and CFR numbers you cite are in the same range as the WHO/China report from February. The various popular models use or show similar numbers. If there's adequate healthcare and a lot of testing, CFR is around 1%. IFR is roughly half CFR. If there's inadequate healthcare (Wuhan, Italy, etc), CFR can be much higher, 3-5%. IFR again would be half that. Some people think China undercounts deaths, other think they undercount cases. Propaganda pressure would demand finding all the cases and missing some deaths to produce lower fatality rate.

In theory, a higher CFR is possible if people were intentionally ignorant and refused to lockdown despite warnings, piles of dead, and failing hospitals. So far, most every region has locked down before overwhelming the hospitals, or early enough that hospitals were only overwhelmed for a few weeks.

Some of the recent serology test suggest lower IFR numbers (Stanford, USC, etc.). These studies are easily discredited by looking at NYC's dead vs total population. Currently this sits at 0.17%, rising 0.05% per week (4k dead/week). To get IFR, divide this number by the fraction of NYC's population that's been infected (unknown: 10%? 20%?). So it's safe to say any study citing an IFR below 0.3% is wrong.

Huh. Last paragraph suggests IFR close to or above 1% for NYC. Does anybody think infection is much above 20%?

Using MV's flu IFR, suggests corona is 100x to 1000x worse than flu. Better get some lime

[Core Shot]

I'm against changing thread titles.

But Covfefe Flu would be nice.

Then we can kick this shit flinging thread to polyass and be done with it

[MultiVerse]

Some of the recent serology test suggest lower IFR numbers (Stanford, USC, etc.). These studies are easily discredited by looking at NYC's dead vs total population. Currently this sits at 0.17%, rising 0.05% per week (4k dead/week). To get IFR, divide this number by the fraction of NYC's population that's been infected (unknown: 10%? 20%?). So it's safe to say any study citing an IFR below 0.3% is wrong.

As you noted there are a number of factors like the health care system, demographics too, that affect the outcome so just for perspective we can also extrapolate from NYC even without knowing the number of infected.

Divide NYC deaths by the NYC population multiplied by the U.S. population: (1.5e4 / 8.4e6 ) * 3.3e8 = 590,000. That's a lower bound of around 600K if the U.S. population becomes proportionate with NYC yesterday.

[Deebased]

Laura May be smart. But that just makes her a manipulative liar. Maddow May bother you, but she works from the facts.

Quoted for hilarity.

Thanks OT you brought a smile to my face. Maddow ranks damn close to Hannity in her ability to falsify conclusions and generate fear.

[Ted Striker]

Was thinking similar. Wonder how long until the used car market gets flooded? Have been looking for a 911 but nothing has changed much over the past month as far as pricing and inventory.

I'd pm bobby (seriously)

I received an email this morning offering 0% on a new Volvo.

[twat]

sober rational thought will get you nowhere in this thread....

So i am on a Sterilium trip tonight.... ask me tomorrow for my sober rational thoughts

[Mazderati]

Everything I've read about the car market and covfefe suggests consumer car pricing will continue to decline; especially used cars. The collector market has remained reasonably strong to this point but with big auctions and shows being cancelled or postponed that may change.

https://www.autoweek.com/car-life/cl...sic-car-world/

[Conundrum]

Next time I'm by the coop, I'll ping you.

Please do.

[twat]

Italy 25549 60359456 0,000423281 0,04%
Lombardia 12940 10060574 0,001286209 0,13%
San Marino 40 33031 0,001210984 0,12%

USA 50372 328000000 0,000153573 0,02%
NYC 15740 8399000 0,001874033 0,19%
Washington 682 7615000 8,95601E-05 0,01% (state)


Austria 510 8859000 5,75686E-05 0,01%
Tirol 101 754705 0,000133827 0,01%
Landeck 14 7618 0,001837753 0,18% (ischgl/st.anton cluster)

Sweden 2152 10230000 0,000210362 0,02%

all numbers are from google and i don´t see any errors for now as my sterilium just kicked in
i also thought about x-raying myself but i cant find a 2ndhand machine on craigslist

so sweden is as close to herd immunity as the unitedstates????

[frorider]

The details behind Bleachgate are similarly amusing: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mp-coronavirus

[grinch]

If democracy wasnt dead id vote for the title change. It has to have a certain level concern evey time an asian board member reads it, or anyone concerned with racism. Most likely an equivalent ratio to the level of racism they are facing.. at this point everyone should know it shouldnt be tolerated. Its the least thing we can do to change a stupid title

Sent from my SM-G950W using TGR Forums mobile app

[cat in january]

By default there’s a bunch of politics in this thread, but there’s a whole bunch more good information and sure hope it doesn’t go to polyass.

Maine craigslist has had a big uptick n classic cars listed. Prices for most are way high.

[glademaster]

Well, back to work as usual on Monday morning. Fuck that shit, I'm quitting.

[LeeLau]

Chinese are way more rascist than white people eh

my sister ( not that azn looking/ doesnt speak it ) met the mother of her long time BF a little old east Vangroovy chinese matriarch of the family who didnt speak engrish, she took a look at sis and repeated Gwei lo Gwei lo !

Sis mentions this to my 1/2 chinese mom who tells her that she was being called " white ghost "

you gotta laugh at this shit eh

lee lau is equal opertoonity ... he make joke on everbody

I'd say orange Putih gemuk dan mabuk. Maybe that'll get a better reaction although I'm not sure there's a wiki entry for that.

Whatever. Wait till I tell SkiCougar I despoiled the pure Aryan race by marrying a white person. That'll get his white hood in a knot

[Viva]

As other countries have shown this thing is beatable and so our war is not so much with an unseen enemy, but a challenge to American society.

Nicely stated, and I agree.

It's easy to see why government agencies at various levels approached this problem the way they did initially. There was no data to digest, only models. But we now know that SARS-CoV-2 is too contagious to attempt containment regardless of scale- national, state, county, or city-wide. It’s gonna spread no matter what distancing doctrine we practice. Recent studies (USC and Stanford) corroborate this.

The most vulnerable members of our population, and those with the highest mortality rates, are the easiest to identify: the fatties, diabetics, frail old geezers, those with respiratory derangement, organ transplant recipients or otherwise immuno-compromised, et al. These are the folks who die following infection from this thing. We can protect them through isolation /distancing.

But everyone else infected presents something similar to the flu, or mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all. Of course, they’re still vectors for the virus and will spread it. But isolating not-at-risk people from other not-at-risk people is dumb. Herd immunity is likely the best bet to overcome the current epidemic in a timely fashion (i.e., before college football starts). As long as we protect our vulnerable, let this bitch run its fucking course.

Vaccines exist, but they won't become available until the epidemic has passed or is waning.

What’s the upshot if we allow this? People and businesses recover financially. People won’t starve (So far not a danger, but I'm reading that this is an increasing concern in the ag industry). No rioting (have you followed what’s been going on in France?). Although the current epidemic will pass, likely with some degree of herd immunity, we ought to be looking beyond infectious disease paranoia. We may very well end up losing more lives to misguided, reactionary policy decisions than to the consequences of the actual viral infection.

This is how I see it. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

[Bunion 2020]

But everyone else infected presents something similar to the flu, or mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all.

Everyone eh?

[Core Shot]

So i am on a Sterilium trip tonight.... ask me tomorrow for my sober rational thoughts

Made me google it. Hah.

Is that the shit Drumpf wants us to inject?

[iceman]

Italy 25549 60359456 0,000423281 0,04%
Lombardia 12940 10060574 0,001286209 0,13%
San Marino 40 33031 0,001210984 0,12%

USA 50372 328000000 0,000153573 0,02%
NYC 15740 8399000 0,001874033 0,19%
Washington 682 7615000 8,95601E-05 0,01% (state)


Austria 510 8859000 5,75686E-05 0,01%
Tirol 101 754705 0,000133827 0,01%
Landeck 14 7618 0,001837753 0,18% (ischgl/st.anton cluster)

Sweden 2152 10230000 0,000210362 0,02%

all numbers are from google and i don´t see any errors for now as my sterilium just kicked in
i also thought about x-raying myself but i cant find a 2ndhand machine on craigslist

so sweden is as close to herd immunity as the unitedstates????

I'm not gonna check your math but all your numbers are "so far" and with countermeasures of varying degree in place. Even Sweden is not as wide open as is generally reported, people take it seriously there even if the government hasn't. So your numbers may be true but they're useless because we don't know the numbers of those who have been infected.

[Mofro261]

so sweden is as close to herd immunity as the unitedstates????

I know this is hard for some to understand, appologize in advance to those that grasp this already. USA is a BIG country. Sweden is a SMALL country. In the USA, New York has a LARGE densely pacted population; Montana has a SMALL mostly dispersed population. A better phrased question might have been, "Does all of Western Europe have herd immunity similar to the USA?."

Fun with fractions is cute and all, but tell me how lethal any Flu looks when you sum the cases from the first 6 weeks of the season and then pass it off as a years worth of data.

Fyi- a recent report from France suggests 5% of the country will have been infected by May 11.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...413v1.full.pdf

We find that the basic reproductive number R0prior to the implementation of the lockdown was 3.31 (95% CrI: 3.18-3.43). At a national level, thelockdown resulted in a 84% reduction in transmission, with the reproduction number R dropping to0.52 (95% CrI: 0.50-0.55). We forecast that by the 11th May, 3.7 million (range 2.3 - 6.7, whenaccounting for uncertainty in the probability of entering ICU) people will have been infected,representing 5.7% (range 3.5 - 10.3) of the French population (Figure 3E). This proportion will be12.3% (range 7.9-21.3) in Ile-de-France, which includes Paris, and 11.8% (range 7.4-20.5) in GrandEst, the two most affected regions of the country. (Figure 3D, Figure S5). Assuming a basicreproductive number of R0=3.3, it would require around 70% of the population to be immune for theepidemic to be controlled by immunity alone. Our results therefore strongly suggest that, without avaccine, herd immunity on its own will be insufficient to avoid a second wave at the end of thelockdown. Efficient control measures need to be maintained beyond the 11th May

[XXX-er]

I'd say orange Putih gemuk dan mabuk. Maybe that'll get a better reaction although I'm not sure there's a wiki entry for that.

Whatever. Wait till I tell SkiCougar I despoiled the pure Aryan race by marrying a white person. That'll get his white hood in a knot

so I tried it and no go but Tong Sampa will bring up a bunch of garbage cans with wheels

[Core Shot]

Fear and loathing is a nice touch

And if you ever read homers odyssey,
We are between Scylla and Charybdis

Well done OP on the thread re-title

[AdironRider]

That would be reasonable, given the pressure I'm sure he's under. I just hope he doesn't waver and say that things can resume 4/27, which is what everyone in office is assuming is going to happen. My boss already asked me to prepare to resume normal field and office work as of that date, so we'll see.

Damn near everyone is losing money right now, I have zero sympathy for anyone working in any construction related field who is clamoring to get back to work instead of doing what is in the best interest of public safety. Those folks can lose every cent they have and drop dead.

Spoken like a true employee of the planning department. You are like a walking stereotype sometimes.

[glademaster]

Spoken like a true employee of the planning department. You are like a walking stereotype sometimes.

You get jaded when you're exposed to the construction industry, which is populated entirely by pathological liars, master manipulators, and charlatans who view their employees with the same respect that was paid to feudal serfs.