Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Rideski]

The lilies come out at night. And I can see why Danno is fascinated about this phenomenon of basic math.

If you owned 360 lily pads and wrote a check for 231 lily pads, but they waited 45 days to cash the check, how many lily pads would you own on day 37?

[BigDaddy]

This thread has jumped the lily pad...

[MakersTeleMark]

If you owned 360 lily pads and wrote a check for 231 lily pads, but they waited 45 days to cash the check, how many lily pads would you own on day 37?

Depends on how many you smoked already.

[toast2266]

What if the Lilly pads are in an airplane on a treadmill?

Is the airplane on a treadmill in Georgia?

If so, you're fucked.

[Rideski]

Depends on how many you smoked already.

42

[jono]

Yes. If one only samples at 24 hour intervals, the usual claim is wrong.

This seems to have more of a parallel in the rat flu data than it got credit for.

[Buster Highmen]

This seems to have more of a parallel in the rat flu data than it got credit for.

Shhhhh!

[MakersTeleMark]

42

318 left to go then.

[old goat]

The lily pad thing may make sense mathematically but biologically it's impossible for lily pads to multiply that fast.

[Rideski]

The pond is in Chernobyl.

[MakersTeleMark]

The lily pad thing may make sense mathematically but biologically it's impossible for lily pads to multiply that fast.

Hater's gotta hate.

[splat]

Lions to the white courtesy phone. Lions? Lions to the white courtesy phone, please.

Exactly. They're building a new stadium in Vegas. Looks like the Coliseum to me.

And they still have Sigfried and Roy. (Are they both still alive or did Roy die?) What a show it could be.

[Core Shot]

[jono]

Good info thanks. I mentioned coffee filter because he said readily available and disposable. And I’ve been out of paper towels for a month.

I’m making masks for myself for grocery trips made of cloth though. I read an article this morning comparing types of shirt materials but I lost track of it. Obv more layers the better. But I recall it said woven far superior to knit. Therefore tshirt isn’t the best an definitely not just one layer. I would think this would mean most buffs aren’t going to do a ton of good. Still way better than nothing imho.


Here’s an article for med people in an N95 crunch.
https://www.childrenshospital.org/re...ion-fellowship

That video looks awesome for anyone with access to those parts.

My readings also agree that cotton>poly. One found decent results from 8 layers of fully shrunk Haynes T-shirt material in case that's handy. But the usual problem is studies' applicability since most follow some earlier outbreak with different pathogens. Irritatingly, they all seem to use very small sets of samples, too, judging from the noisy results.

You can probably cut quite a few filters from one HEPA house filter. If it doesn't come apart at the cut edges. Maybe that's a job for cotton, too?

Keeping virus from leaving with speed/size is much easier so a buff as a muffler is probably at least somewhat useful. Not as good at scaring the passersby as a Darth Vader mask, but probably decent at that, too.

[Rideski]

#buffmuffler

I made a mask in about 30 seconds from a T-shirt, good enough to knock down the giant grasses in my yard. Might make a vid if I get super motivated. Not sure why people are messing with rubber bands. Just leave long strips of cotton and tie behind your head. Rubber bands around the ears looks like the suck.

[XXX-er]

Ultra orthodox are that stupid

my buddy went to a service, said buddy is up there reading the sermon but kids are laughing, people are talking 2 guys in the back are arguing heatedly over business ... it's a tribe not a religion

[LeeLau]

I'm no mathematician but 1300 people died yesterday and 900 the day before. Seems like 100k is not far away.

8500 fatalities increasing average of 25%/day ie doubling every 3.2 days.

135,000 in 16 days

[rideit]

my buddy went to a service, said buddy is up there reading the sermon but kids are laughing, people are talking 2 guys in the back are arguing heatedly over business ... it's a tribe not a religion

That sounds way more like reform than ultra-orthodox.

[huckbucket]

8500 fatalities increasing average of 25%/day ie doubling every 3.2 days.

135,000 in 16 days

This site says 6300 fatalities in the US doubling between 2 and 3 days. Even if it's three, that puts 100K dead in 12 days.

http://18.216.124.216:3838/COVID-Tracker/

We're splitting hairs. It sucks all the way around.

The thing that I think is hard to understand is that 21 days from now if we're still doubling every three days, that number is 800,000 dead. That's April April 26th.

[SirVicSmasher]

This site says 6300 fatalities in the US doubling between 2 and 3 days. Even if it's three, that puts 100K dead in 12 days.

http://18.216.124.216:3838/COVID-Tracker/

We're splitting hairs. It sucks all the way around.

The thing that I think is hard to understand is that 21 days from now if we're still doubling every three days, that number is 800,000 dead. That's April April 26th.

I hope your wrong.

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[KenJongIll]

This site says 6300 fatalities in the US doubling between 2 and 3 days. Even if it's three, that puts 100K dead in 12 days.

http://18.216.124.216:3838/COVID-Tracker/

We're splitting hairs. It sucks all the way around.

The thing that I think is hard to understand is that 21 days from now if we're still doubling every three days, that number is 800,000 dead. That's April April 26th.

I started a keeping track of confirmed of cases a month or so ago, assuming a doubling every 4 days. Obviously it’s very wrong because so few are tested...but my prediction for today was 344,000 cases in the US. , which would be 1.3 million by April 13.
Not that any of this even matters or is accurate. Just something I started a while back.

[Patarero]

8500 fatalities increasing average of 25%/day ie doubling every 3.2 days.

135,000 in 16 days

Can't keep increasing exponentially forever. (I hope)

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[BGnight]

Very interesting. ICU doctor in NYC just posted these messages the last two day. He says he thinks the way doctors are using respirators is actually killing patients. He thinks pressurizing the lungs is a huge mistake. He's really trying to get the word out:

[LeeLau]

Can't keep increasing exponentially forever. (I hope)

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I said that back in mid January when cases were confined to Wuhan. Yet it still grows at quite the rate

At some point in the future enough people are immune or die that the exponential growth is reduced.

[Core Shot]

Very interesting. ICU doctor in NYC just posted these messages the last two day. He says he thinks the way doctors are using respirators is actually killing patients. He thinks pressurizing the lungs is a huge mistake. He's really trying to get the word out:

Wow. Interesting.
This rat flu is different for sure