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  1. #28551
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    Deaths per cases depends partly on the population driving cases. A younger population was driving cases over the last few months but if an older population (or Jesus) takes the wheel again the likelihood is deaths per cases goes back up.

  2. #28552
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    I think the only thing that might snap people out of their COVID laziness is seeing more people dying, and it's going to happen. Maybe not like in the spring, but with this number of cases lots of people are going to die or at least be seriously ill. If Trump manages to win re-election, shortly thereafter (some) people might realize "huh, seems like Biden (and Fauci) was actually right about coronavirus."
    Only if someone they personally know dies or spends an extended period in the hospital. 700-800 people are dying every day and no one seems perturbed.

  3. #28553
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    Only if someone they personally know dies or spends an extended period in the hospital. 700-800 people are dying every day and no one seems perturbed.
    Correct. It needs to hit home to shake them from their torpor.

  4. #28554
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    Brits are starting vaccine challenge trials
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...bec_story.html
    The first phase of the trial will be giving different doses of virus to young, healthy, on-vaccinated quarantined volunteers to identify the minimum viral load needed to cause infection.
    The second phase will test different vaccines. This part will start in late spring--presumably after there are already vaccines already in use.

  5. #28555
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    I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????

  6. #28556
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    Quote Originally Posted by PB View Post
    I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????
    exactly

  7. #28557
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    I think the only thing that might snap people out of their COVID laziness is seeing more people dying, and it's going to happen. Maybe not like in the spring, but with this number of cases lots of people are going to die or at least be seriously ill. If Trump manages to win re-election, shortly thereafter (some) people might realize "huh, seems like Biden (and Fauci) was actually right about coronavirus."
    Fauci is being gagged right now by the Trump administration so hopefully he is sitting in his office working on the plan what to do next if/when Biden gets in
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  8. #28558
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    Quote Originally Posted by PB View Post
    I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????
    There is none in the history of humanity. Any and all diseases to be snuffed from circulation in people have done so by isolation or vaccination.
    Move upside and let the man go through...

  9. #28559
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    Quote Originally Posted by PB View Post
    I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????
    It's been stated many times that herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine, but unfortunately there's a qualifier that gets left off: it's never happened once a disease was endemic. Diseases with minimal spread can die out very easily. R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.

  10. #28560
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    It's been stated many times that herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine, but unfortunately there's a qualifier that gets left off: it's never happened once a disease was endemic. Diseases with minimal spread can die out very easily. R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.
    But, that's not herd immunity.

  11. #28561
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.
    Fuck that's a stark way to put it. Thanks.

  12. #28562
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    This will sound bad, but the real problem is that people aren’t dying. We’re better at caring for COVID cases and keeping them alive. We have a few people that have been on a ventilator for weeks now and are getting trachs because they’ve been intubated too long. It’s more of a burden than if they just died. The general public only understands death and can’t grasp that caring for these COVID cases is harder on everyone. It really is a Catch-22 with our under educated ignorant population.


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  13. #28563
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Sounds like the US is following the Great Barrington Declaration; allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.

    https://gbdeclaration.org/

    Only US is not really doing much to protect those at higher risk. Counterpoint today in the NYTimes; Public health experts are alarmed by a ‘herd immunity’ theory endorsed by Trump officials:

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...rump-officials

    This might be an okay strategy if it came with a coordinated federal response, clear communication, reasonable precautions like social distancing and masking, PPE fitting and distribution and economic support to the vulnerable, etc.

    Instead we have an uncoordinated shitshow.

    I don't see all of these herd immunity touting people setting up superspreader events so they can guinea pig this idea. I'm mean, unless you count the Whitehouse.

  14. #28564
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    Quote Originally Posted by char_ View Post
    I don't see all of these herd immunity touting people setting up superspreader events so they can guinea pig this idea.
    Look harder. There have been some.

  15. #28565
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn View Post
    This will sound bad, but the real problem is that people aren’t dying. We’re better at caring for COVID cases and keeping them alive. We have a few people that have been on a ventilator for weeks now and are getting trachs because they’ve been intubated too long. It’s more of a burden than if they just died. The general public only understands death and can’t grasp that caring for these COVID cases is harder on everyone. It really is a Catch-22 with our under educated ignorant population.
    Totally disagree. The worldwide number is 1.1 million dead. 1.1 fucking million people. Today. What's that number in 12 months? 2 million? We need a bigger number to incite action? Key-rist! The real problem is that people can't think compassionately about their (global and local) neighbors because we're always looking out for number one.

  16. #28566
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn View Post
    T. The general public only understands death

    It really is a Catch-22 with our under educated ignorant population.
    yeah quality of life, you could be talking about Covid OR the obesity problem
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  17. #28567
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Brits are starting vaccine challenge trials
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...bec_story.html
    The first phase of the trial will be giving different doses of virus to young, healthy, on-vaccinated quarantined volunteers to identify the minimum viral load needed to cause infection.
    The second phase will test different vaccines. This part will start in late spring--presumably after there are already vaccines already in use.
    Why don't we start doing this in the US? I realize there are ethical implications to purposely infecting people with the virus, but that is essentially what our government is doing to us right now without our consent. Start getting this ball rolling worldwide.

  18. #28568
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    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    Totally disagree. The worldwide number is 1.1 million dead. 1.1 fucking million people. Today. What's that number in 12 months? 2 million? We need a bigger number to incite action? Key-rist! The real problem is that people can't think compassionately about their (global and local) neighbors because we're always looking out for number one.
    It's a lot of people in raw numbers, but when you consider there are close to 8 billion people on Earth it's peanuts. The upshot is that most people still don't personally know anyone who has died due to COVID.

  19. #28569
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    There is none in the history of humanity. Any and all diseases to be snuffed from circulation in people have done so by isolation or vaccination.
    Isn't there some truth that coronaviruses and influenzas currently in circulation likely started out much more deadly and with time, became less deadly? In other words, while these viruses were not eliminated from earth, they did become tolerable by doing absolutely nothing?

  20. #28570
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    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    Totally disagree. The worldwide number is 1.1 million dead. 1.1 fucking million people. Today. What's that number in 12 months? 2 million? We need a bigger number to incite action? Key-rist! The real problem is that people can't think compassionately about their (global and local) neighbors because we're always looking out for number one.
    I totally agree with you, but the vast majority of people are too selfish and ignorant to understand that deaths aren’t the only metric that matters. I constantly hear, even from coworkers, that it’s not that bad because deaths aren’t too bad. Meanwhile we’re doing a trach on a patient that’s been intubated for 15 days because of a raging COVID infection. It’s bad and will get worse.

    Everything that was predicted about this pandemic has come true. Spikes after relaxing restrictions and large gatherings, a resurgence in the fall, etc.

    We’re too myopic and selfish to see this though.


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  21. #28571
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots.
    If SARS was an infectious and less-deadly as COVID-19, it would have likely become endemic just like COVID-19. Modern humanity has never encountered a virus with the same traits as COVID-19.

  22. #28572
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    But, that's not herd immunity.
    Isn't it? If R0 falls below 1 and the disease dies out then for that herd at that time the level of immunity was adequate. The point being, R0 changes based on many factors and the idiots keep acting like individual immunity is the only one that matters when in reality it might be the least important. It certainly should be the least important, because of all the factors it's the one that comes with the biggest downsides.

    At the extreme, of course, a disease with a miniscule spread might actually have nothing whatsoever to do with individual immunity numbers, but even SARS probably wasn't that small. In the context of COVID-19 individual immunity will obviously play some role, so herd immunity can be defined as R0<1. Given that, any covidiot that thinks herd immunity is best achieved by maximizing R0 has already spent too much time practicing doublethink.

  23. #28573
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    Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Isn't there some truth that coronaviruses and influenzas currently in circulation likely started out much more deadly and with time, became less deadly? In other words, while these viruses were not eliminated from earth, they did become tolerable by doing absolutely nothing?
    Even coughing into your elbow and washing your hands are a form of mitigation(isolation). Influenzas aren’t less deadly we are just better at treating the sickness they cause.


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  24. #28574
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn View Post
    Even coughing into your elbow and washing your hands are a form of mitigation(isolation). Influenzas aren’t less deadly we are just better at treating the sickness they cause.
    Is this all there is to it or have humans built up some modicum of immunity due to exposure to flu viruses over hundreds of years?

  25. #28575
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn View Post
    EInfluenzas aren’t less deadly we are just better at treating the sickness they cause. TGR Forums
    Swine flu H1N1 became less deadly over time, correct? From the cdc:

    "(H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year."

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