Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[The SnowShow]

Isn’t travel to Mexico from the US closed? Someone I know has been posting pics from Mexico surfing and I’m wondering if I missed something.

[tetzen]

Got some good news from the in-laws today. FIL and SIL both heading home as they have tested negative for the Covid. Oxygen levels starting to return to normal, so they can recover from pneumonia at home. Finally breathing a sigh of relief around here.

Remdesivir showed up late on Saturday, but they decided to hold off on using it for now. Hoping the MIL doesn't catch it and need it.

[m2711c]

that is good news! i hope things keep getting better.

[teledad]

Isn’t travel to Mexico from the US closed? Someone I know has been posting pics from Mexico surfing and I’m wondering if I missed something.

Travel over the land border is closed (with exceptions), air travel is allowed.

[The SnowShow]

Got some good news from the in-laws today. FIL and SIL both heading home as they have tested negative for the Covid. Oxygen levels starting to return to normal, so they can recover from pneumonia at home. Finally breathing a sigh of relief around here.

Remdesivir showed up late on Saturday, but they decided to hold off on using it for now. Hoping the MIL doesn't catch it and need it.

Great news.

[The SnowShow]

Travel over the land border is closed (with exceptions), air travel is allowed.

Ah. Didn’t realize that was open to non essential travel.

[altasnob]

Tourism is 8.5% Mexico's GDP versus around around 2% for Canada and 2.8% for US. Main reason why Canada is still keeping US out and Mexico aint.

[Deebased]

Has anyone been so bold as to estimate a relationship between rate of positivity and undetected cases?

between 10/90 and 50/50 in April. Early antibody tests were showing a similar range.

[ill-advised strategy]

Well, now I live in one of the most infectious places in the country.

Our local news always stretches to find a way to downplay it. The numbers have been going higher and higher. From when most days had nothing new and it was surprising to see 7 or 8 in a day to now 100+ daily, 200+ sometimes. Yesterday the news wouldn’t report the infection numbers, saying there was a problem with the numbers...but really it was just that there’s now like 500 new cases in our local prison and 250 new in the community...so their eyes just couldn’t believe the numbers, so they assumed the numbers weren’t right and reported “we’re waiting on the corrected numbers” instead.

My employer and coworkers have become fatigued with cleaning and masks. They never adopted masks in the office, only when out in public or when there was a board member or media or whatever around. The elderly and vulnerable coworkers who had been staying home in spring and summer when we had no cases are showing up to work again at the worst possible time.

I pick up employees from the hospital, they say it’s totally full in there.

A dialysis patient booked a ride from his luxury condo to dialysis today. Because you can’t safely get a bus to his condo, my dispatch decided to order me to go with a minivan. We haven’t been using those since covid, for obvious distancing reasons. I said no fucking way am I doing that...are you out of your god damn minds? Instead of correcting the minivan idea, they decided the problem was me, and they just sent our bus-cleaning janitor with the minivan instead. I saw her tonight walking around the bus garage just open-coughing, mask on her chin, no hand over the mouth, just open hacking for like 20 seconds. That’s the person they put in a minivan with a dialysis patient, that’s the person who walks through every bus “cleaning” while she hacks away open-coughing. It’s astonishing.

Every day at my wife’s work they lose more people to positive tests and quarantining...they’re running out of people to staff the store. Employees are almost surely coming in sick because they need the money.

There were two different people unmasked at the grocery store tonight.
We’re fucked here. It’s all going to shit.

[Mazderati]

Lots of areas still easing restrictions while cases increase. Like, here's your opportunity to re-evaluate. Maybe scale back and get in front of it instead of feign surprise when a bigger bag of shit hits the fan. Dumb dumbs.

[altasnob]

Sounds like the US is following the Great Barrington Declaration; allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.

https://gbdeclaration.org/

Only US is not really doing much to protect those at higher risk. Counterpoint today in the NYTimes; Public health experts are alarmed by a ‘herd immunity’ theory endorsed by Trump officials:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...rump-officials

[XXX-er]

Tourism is 8.5% Mexico's GDP versus around around 2% for Canada and 2.8% for US. Main reason why Canada is still keeping US out and Mexico aint.

you don't think it has anything to do with the fact you have 4% of the worlds population and have booked 20% of the dead possibly because the commander in chief is possibly a fucking idiot ?

[bodywhomper]

Another story providing counterpoint to GB declaration

https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=I...&v=V0MamflGLlM

And GB’s take: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...NxVY1KVWxOYCZM

[Mr. Mike]

Nashville comes in second in the country for Covid cases (behind Vegas).

Oh, and Bobby Stainless is an easily offended Nashvillian who sometimes comes on this forum and pretends he is a skier.

Source for that statistic? Asking because it is inaccurate.

[Mr. Mike]

When the flight fro Zurich landed at O'Hare, there was an incredible force of people in hazmat suits, taking the temperature of everyone getting off the plane and redirecting them through a maze of response tents and interviewers. Since I displayed no fever or symptoms, I just answered a few questions and was let through for my connecting flight.

So, given my purely anecdotal experience, there was a fantastic response at O'Hare on March 20th. Then, yes, I quarantined in my own house sun room for 2 weeks.

I returned one day after Tri and 4-5 after buster and I had the same experience as tri. Was asked before boarding if I had been in Iran or China. Replied no and that was it. No questions or any other evaluation upon arrival in New York. Things changed a lot in those few days. Zurich airport was a zoo when I was leaving and buster posted pics of an empty airport on his departure. Too little too late.

[jono]

between 10/90 and 50/50 in April. Early antibody tests were showing a similar range.

I actually meant a relationship between the rate of percent positive tests and the probable real infection rate. I think it's assumed that some common positivity rates in some places correlate with a ~10:1 ratio of actual infections to confirmed positive tests. And also that very low percent positive correlates with a lower ratio (and higher with higher) since "over-testing" the population should result in more of the actual cases being detected/less of them going undetected. Hence the goals of low positivity relative to tests given. But has anyone tried to quantify the relationship so we could guess, say, that a 30% positivity rate in a given place indicates ~15:1 real cases to detected cases vs. say, 10:1 at 10%?

[cdlv]

Nevada at 37% but still having MAGA rallies:

Don't know where you're pulling 37% as it's not true at all.

[garyfromterrace]

Well, now I live in one of the most infectious places in the country.

Our local news always stretches to find a way to downplay it. The numbers have been going higher and higher. From when most days had nothing new and it was surprising to see 7 or 8 in a day to now 100+ daily, 200+ sometimes. Yesterday the news wouldn’t report the infection numbers, saying there was a problem with the numbers...but really it was just that there’s now like 500 new cases in our local prison and 250 new in the community...so their eyes just couldn’t believe the numbers, so they assumed the numbers weren’t right and reported “we’re waiting on the corrected numbers” instead.

My employer and coworkers have become fatigued with cleaning and masks. They never adopted masks in the office, only when out in public or when there was a board member or media or whatever around. The elderly and vulnerable coworkers who had been staying home in spring and summer when we had no cases are showing up to work again at the worst possible time.

I pick up employees from the hospital, they say it’s totally full in there.

A dialysis patient booked a ride from his luxury condo to dialysis today. Because you can’t safely get a bus to his condo, my dispatch decided to order me to go with a minivan. We haven’t been using those since covid, for obvious distancing reasons. I said no fucking way am I doing that...are you out of your god damn minds? Instead of correcting the minivan idea, they decided the problem was me, and they just sent our bus-cleaning janitor with the minivan instead. I saw her tonight walking around the bus garage just open-coughing, mask on her chin, no hand over the mouth, just open hacking for like 20 seconds. That’s the person they put in a minivan with a dialysis patient, that’s the person who walks through every bus “cleaning” while she hacks away open-coughing. It’s astonishing.

Every day at my wife’s work they lose more people to positive tests and quarantining...they’re running out of people to staff the store. Employees are almost surely coming in sick because they need the money.

There were two different people unmasked at the grocery store tonight.
We’re fucked here. It’s all going to shit.

That's horrid. Shit Ill, good luck and try to stay safe. Other than that I'm speechless.

[huckbucket]

Don't know where you're pulling 37% as it's not true at all.

Agreed that it's not 37%, but it's hard to use any other adjective than the word "mess." "Mess" because of the complete lack of test volume and "mess" because the data they have is pointing to infection rates that easily support spread and not containment.

Second to last column is the percent positive among tests conducted. Last column is the total number of tests over the last three days.

[The AD]

I think the only thing that might snap people out of their COVID laziness is seeing more people dying, and it's going to happen. Maybe not like in the spring, but with this number of cases lots of people are going to die or at least be seriously ill. If Trump manages to win re-election, shortly thereafter (some) people might realize "huh, seems like Biden (and Fauci) was actually right about coronavirus."

[altasnob]

Deaths didn't spike dramatically when cases spiked over the summer. Yes, people will continue to die, but I am not sure that enough people will die to change peoples' opinion. Deaths are currently flat. And yes, they lag, but will they really spike? It will take bodies in the street to change peoples' ingrained opinion.

[gravitylover]

My neighbor was squawking about how people aren't dying so the whole thing is just bullshit.

[cdlv]

Agreed that it's not 37%, but it's hard to use any other adjective than the word "mess." "Mess" because of the complete lack of test volume and "mess" because the data they have is pointing to infection rates that easily support spread and not containment.

Second to last column is the percent positive among tests conducted. Last column is the total number of tests over the last three days.

Not denying that it's a complete shit show, numbers have been steadily rising since reopening the bars in Clark Co.

[The AD]

Deaths didn't spike dramatically when cases spiked over the summer. Yes, people will continue to die, but I am not sure that enough people will die to change peoples' opinion. Deaths are currently flat. And yes, they lag, but will they really spike? It will take bodies in the street to change peoples' ingrained opinion.

Yes, in this country there will be plenty of people who will absolutely not change their minds. It's like global warming: no amount of evidence will ever convince them that it's something they need to worry about.

I do think deaths will increase substantially as we head into winter. Our current new cases trajectory doesn't show any evidence of flattening and we're only now getting into fall. I really don't see how we won't be at 100k cases per day within a few weeks.

[huckbucket]

My neighbor was squawking about how people aren't dying so the whole thing is just bullshit.

Again with the binary point of view. You either die or it's no big deal and there's nothing in between. No longer term health consequences. No burden to the healthcare system. No increased exposure to the vulnerable. So myopic.