Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

Ya wonder how many kids waiting around for the inheritance are saying, "Mom, it's ok, you can go to the supermarket. No, you don't need a mask, that's silly. And don't wash your hands so much, your skin will dry up."

[bobz]

California's governor Newsom is proposing an interstate consortium for procuring PPE supplies, rather than states competing against each other. Of course, the federal government is supposed to be the sort of "union of states" concept that would serve that need, but, you know, Invisible Hand cult wanted to drown it in the bathtub, and so here we are.

Honestly, at this point (and I'm not just talking about the Covid response), interstate compacts may be the way forward from here; let the red states drag their knuckles to their hearts' content, while the librul states that happen to have strong economies operate together functionally.

[LongShortLong]

Why does anyone continue to believe it might be seasonal?

Countries close to the equator continue to be ravaged. Perhaps at a slightly slower pace or perhaps because they started later on the curve.

Same reason they believe it's a hoax. They don't want to believe something bad is happening. I've experienced the feeling, not wanting to believe some terrible happening. Maybe you have too.

Ecuador's doing poorly.

[highangle]

That explains why I saw so many letters for the mailman on my neighbors' mail boxes while walking the dogs: Return to sender.

Notice how it's blue? You see that color a lot in insurance ads. It's supposed to convey "Trust".

[east or bust]

I think they're both valuable. How else can we really get a good handle on the extent of this outbreak? You can't just test people who are sick and hope to get the big picture.

Why?

It will tell us the number of asymptomatic carriers which is important for modeling the increase in cases which is important in obtaining and allocating resources (as if we had any resources). It is also important in convincing people to wear masks. And it is important in devising a testing strategy--if it turned out that the number of asymptomatic carriers is very low than a policy of only testing people would make sense. If there are a lot of aysmptomatics than a policy of testing asymptomatic contacts would make sense--which means a lot more expense and effort.
An antibody test would be nice too.

Let's just recap the post I responded to:

Ohio is going to start random sampling of the population for the cv19.

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Do we really think a random sampling is the answer here? If it was a systematic sampling of all Ohio citizens that's a different story and one that would make more sense to me. Basically I have a shit load of questions in regards to what type of testing Ohio is planning to implement, since that info is currently not readily available with an online search.

What are the parameters of testing?
What test are they performing - the 15 minute test or the ~4-5 day test? What's the accuracy of the tests?
What happens when a person tests negative, they're off the hook free to go back to their normal routine? (obviously not, but you know that's the attitude thousands of people are going to have)
Are they repeating tests for negative results? Negative test, come back in a week and get retested?

There are a lot of holes with testing the general no symptom/asymptomatic population. What, a week ago we didn't even have the ability to test people with minor symptoms. Maybe we should start there instead of administering tests to people with no symptoms at all. We need that antibody test now. At least that provides a baseline for who should be getting tested repeatedly.

TLDR: my two major beefs with random testing the population is the potential positive feedback loop it will create with people thinking they're in the clear and the pulling of resources from where they need to be focused. I could be wrong on point two, but like I said, literally a week ago we had a problem testing people with actual symptoms. Maybe that's changed by now.

[MultiVerse]

Same reason they believe it's a hoax. They don't want to believe something bad is happening. I've experienced the feeling, not wanting to believe some terrible happening. Maybe you have too.

Ecuador's doing poorly.

Seasonality does not mean a virus disappears. Instead, what it means is a warmer more humid climate, for example, plays a role. It just means a virus transmits more efficiently in winter than summer, not that it doesn't transmit.

Climate affects droplet spread and viral titer decay, but direct contact is still direct contact. Even in hostile conditions, the virus can still spread easily from direct contact or survive on surfaces indoors in conditioned spaces.

All the other factors don't magically go away. A virus newly introduced into a population behaves differently than one that have been in the population for a long time. Infected people traveling to a region can still cause fresh outbreaks regardless of climate.

[Core Shot]

Although I think that is more about alcoholism.

Isn’t rat flu quarantine about alcohol?

[Mr. Mike]

Hah, hah

Yeah right. So TN in its unsurpassed leadership on medicine and smart people is going to drive the fatality rate to less than 1% when no other place in the world has been able to do so.

Red state dolts


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Well, the projections (from a source unaffiliated with TN by the way), do show Colorado with a lower deaths per 100,000 residents, so there is at least one factor that you can continue to feel smug about.

[Ted Striker]

Notice how it's blue? You see that color a lot in insurance ads. It's supposed to convey "Trust".

Never knew that, but now that I think about it, yeah most of my junk mail from insurance companies and banks are blue.

The one thing trump knows is marketing.

[rideit]

It just goes to show you should vote for team blue, duh

[Ted Striker]

Peter Navarro has a long history of always being wrong about everything, but he’s making a strong push for lifetime achievement for the Dunning Kruger award

Peter Navarro: Batman's a scientist.

[Buster Highmen]

Isn’t rat flu quarantine about alcohol?

I tried...I tried.

[bobz]

Do we really think a random sampling is the answer here? If it was a systematic sampling of all Ohio citizens that's a different story and one that would make more sense to me.

That's a pretty odd thing to say. The whole point of random sampling is to derive a statistically valid representation of all citizens. Done properly, scientists obtain the same information, but testing fewer people is far less expensive.

The reason not to have done this sooner is that the US was asleep at the wheel on testing, and so there weren't enough tests available for anything but active diagnoses.

If we're going to assume that this pandemic is important to address, then understanding it better would seem to me a good idea. Part of that understanding would include getting accurate estimates of the no-symptom and low-symptom presence of the virus in the overall population.

[Benny Profane]

Same reason they believe it's a hoax. They don't want to believe something bad is happening. I've experienced the feeling, not wanting to believe some terrible happening. Maybe you have too.

Ecuador's doing poorly.

Thus, a 1200 plus rally in stocks today.

[4matic]

Don't touch your face!

[Benny Profane]

Boris Johnson in the ICU. Looks like the stupid and weak one was picked off from the fringes of the herd.

[altacoup]

Ya wonder how many kids waiting around for the inheritance are saying, "Mom, it's ok, you can go to the supermarket. No, you don't need a mask, that's silly. And don't wash your hands so much, your skin will dry up."

Don’t be asshole. Nobody liked assholes. Or maybe you’re just speaking from experience?

[Benny Profane]

Betcha a lot of the TGR collective secretly nodded. Lots of second homes up in ski country.

And my mother is dead, you bastard.

[Benny Profane]

https://mobile.twitter.com/yashalevi...70565123633153

[glademaster]

Don’t be asshole. Nobody liked assholes. Or maybe you’re just speaking from experience?

You know Benny is right though. There are sure shit people out there thinking and doing exactly what he posited for the exact reason he mentioned. Just because a statement is reprehensible doesn't make it less true.

He's not wrong, he's just an asshole. Let he who has never been an asshole cast the first unlubed fist.

[frorider]

In other news, I'm 99% sure one of my next door neighbors has COVID-19 and is self-isolating from his family in a travel trailer he's parked on the street and hooked up to power and water. Either that or someone in the house has it, because he puts gloves and an N-95 mask on on the rare occasions when he does go inside.

Obviously I hope there’s no exposure for you, but I’m glad to see your neighbors are taking it seriously. Yesterday I read about a family using an RV like this, which is arguably a really effective separation method, and the fucking HOA was trying to put a stop to it.

[glademaster]

Obviously I hope there’s no exposure for you, but I’m glad to see your neighbors are taking it seriously. Yesterday I read about a family using an RV like this, which is arguably a really effective separation method, and the fucking HOA was trying to put a stop to it.

I'm not worried about my exposure, I live in a residential neighborhood in a town, but the travel trailer is probably 75-80 feet from the closest window in my house, if not slightly further.

I'm glad they're taking it seriously too, although I am a little miffed that they didn't move their cars into the street to park the trailer in their driveway. Having a big extension cord and a hose draped over the public sidewalk 24/7 is just begging for a trip and fall lawsuit, IMHO. Plus, occupying a trailer that's parked in the city-owned ROW is a major faux pas. The city I live in does allow you to occupy one parked on private property for up to 90 days, so they could have easily done it in full compliance.

I'm not filing a complaint because where they have it parked now is further from my house than if it was in their driveway.

[Casey E]

Same reason they believe it's a hoax. They don't want to believe something bad is happening. I've experienced the feeling, not wanting to believe some terrible happening. Maybe you have too.

Ecuador's doing poorly.

The cardboard coffin stopgap in Guayaquil is now up to 4,000, with the army picking up the bodies from homes, streets, and hospitals.

https://www.elmundo.es/internacional...e638b45ae.html

A wood coffin, if you can find it, now goes for $600, double pre-covid19. They had to go pick up 100 bodies from private homes just yesterday. Nowhere is more hot and humid than that, except maybe Miami in the summer.....

This "El guionista chileno Sebastián Arrau y su experiencia con Covid-19 en Miami: “Estados Unidos es un desastre”
https://www.latercera.com/la-tercera...e5e8b0791e8619
is the tale of a Chilean screenwriter, who travelled from Madrid to New York for a week mid-March, and then on to Miami, where he arrived sick and was tested 2 days later. His exam, done against the advice of the locals, was ready 14 days after being taken, on April 4. After this process, and observing the behaviour of people in Miami, he says the "USA is a disaster", figures he was infected from the Madrid airport on, and found out his roommates in NY got it too later. He does not have kind words for Donald Trump....

"El presidente (Donald Trump) se dio cuenta que con los contagios en la tv gana más puntos, y se pone a hablar él en vez de dejar espacio a los especialistas, y trata de quitarle gravedad al asunto en vez de tratar de ser serio y hablar desde los datos. Por eso creo que acá está muy mal hecho. Todos los días habla Trump, no le ha dado la importancia que tiene y el peligro que tiene, y la gente no siente que es peligro”.

[Bunion 2020]

I have had the summer flu and know plenty of others as well who have also had it. Just less common.

To recap, some are holding out hope this disappears with the onset of warmer weather. It will only be in hiding.

I think everyone agrees that until there are effective treatments and an eventual vaccine that mass testing and separation for those who test positive is our best hope to contain this.

[bennymac]

Bojo moved to intensive care - his odds of surviving covid just got a lot worse