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  1. #15076
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    49,550
    Quote Originally Posted by BmillsSkier View Post
    The secondary market for flowered Tommy Bahama shirts is going to crater.
    Nice. I've been waiting for my cue to pounce.

  2. #15077
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Where bankers' bankers breed
    Posts
    2,433
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    At least I'll be able to score a nice used Vette in six months.
    Was thinking similar. Wonder how long until the used car market gets flooded? Have been looking for a 911 but nothing has changed much over the past month as far as pricing and inventory.
    All the years combine
    they melt into a dream

  3. #15078
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    13,140
    People figuring that it's just a matter of time before a vaccine eliminates the problem should consider that--
    There are a number of viral diseases where the immune system is not able to clear the virus--HIV, Hepatitis C, varicella/zoster (chickenpox/shingles) are examples. Despite decades of work there is no vaccine for the first two. (Hepatitis C can be cleared by an antiviral drug in most cases. Zoster can be prevented from causing clinical shingles by a vaccine). The point being that the immune system is not all-powerful and that we cannot assume there will be a vaccine. Making a vaccine is easy, making one that works isn't.

    Newscasters, including on PBS, interviewing scientists frequently allude to the "fact" that it will take a year to 18 months to develop a vaccine, when in truth that is the minimum time it will take, if the effort is ever successful. Lies and false assurances, assuming the public can't handle the truth harms credibility in the long run and leads to widespread backlash when the promised breakthrough fails to materialize. If we had been told the truth about masks from the beginning we wouldn't have airplanes with half the people not wearing masks. If we had told from the beginning that stay at home might need to last for months and had Congress begun providing relief to business and the unemployed from the beginning we would not be having the protests and premature reopenings now. I remember thinking when schools were closed "for two weeks" that the people in charge had to know that 2 weeks would not be nearly enough. Even now, stay at home orders are extended for short periods of time when they should be indefinite.

    Cuomo, on The Daily Show the other night, made the point that he was honest about how bad the pandemic would be from the beginning so that New Yorkers would comply with stay-at-home, since he knew that the order couldn't be enforced without voluntary compliance. Now New York has declining cases while other places with less severe outbreaks have still-growing cases.

  4. #15079
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,762
    Quote Originally Posted by St. Jerry View Post
    Was thinking similar. Wonder how long until the used car market gets flooded? Have been looking for a 911 but nothing has changed much over the past month as far as pricing and inventory.
    Too lazy to find a link, but I read that the huge auctions at the wholesale level that sell rental and fleet vehicles are flooded right now.

    Now that a lot of those grown up boys with toys are home on weekdays up here in the woods, they're taking their Porsches and Ferraris out on nice weekdays. I see them a lot on my road rides. So, ironically, high end mileage is up while everyone else is down.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  5. #15080
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    49,550
    I'd bet the free places to sell a car (like Craigslist) would be a good place to look. Maybe not for 911's though. But if you have to sell your ride because you're broke you probably don't want to have to pay somebody to do it.

  6. #15081
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    452
    I heard (cannot find the source anymore, must have vanished from the internet) emtbers are at a higher risk level, cause the frequencies from the bikes are similar to 5g towers.
    Just figured it out by myself !dont tell anybody!
    if you wrap the battery and motor with tinfoil you can minimise the risk.
    LIVE IS NOT A CHAIRLIFT

  7. #15082
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    ?
    Posts
    6,105
    Really hoping that Inslee doesn't allow construction to resume prior to May 4.
    I remember a bottomless freedom...

  8. #15083
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    northern BC
    Posts
    20,379
    Imagine ^^ how many more thousand Americans would be alive if you had president Cuomo

    instead of Trump
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  9. #15084
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    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    We draw the line at Italians.

  10. #15085
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    Sep 2006
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    4,871
    Click image for larger version. 

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  11. #15086
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    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    See what I mean about the Italians?

  12. #15087
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,762
    Somewhere a Kennedy nods.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  13. #15088
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
    Posts
    4,504
    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    Really hoping that Inslee doesn't allow construction to resume prior to May 4.
    you have no construction.

    that's the one thing I see in Houston working daily myself, road and housing construction; no sure how road construction is exempt, you cannot exactly social distance working with concrete and you have the public passing you all day long, many with windows down.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  14. #15089
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    SLC
    Posts
    1,748
    The Ingraham Guiliani combo is something to behold. Two of the dumbest cunts to ever walk this earth combining their brain powers on-air to out-stupid even the ginger waffle himself. If there was a fucking god you know he'd have smitten these 2 twats already. Good thing idiocy doesn't kill or the population of this country would drop to 150MM real fast.

  15. #15090
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    3,284
    I said it back 300 pages or so ago - our “vaccine” is gonna be drinking a less virulent form of covid (or butt chugging it) - thereby inducing a hopefully mild infection and then at least some length of time with “immunity”. Drive-up enema stations could be an option. Get a free car wash and detailing coupon can be a loss leader.

  16. #15091
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    you have no construction.
    Uh, what?

    I think construction work is a great breeding/point of transmission for the virus. I also don't think there is anything even remotely essential about Toll Brothers building a bunch of $900,000 McMansions on 1/6 of an acre lots. That shit can fucking wait.

    There's minimal sanitation, you have large numbers of people sharing vehicles, and you have subs from a wide geographic area driving all over the region to various job sites, where they interact with a bunch of people, shit in a port-a-can that doesn't have any hand sani in it and gets used by 100 people a week, then go out to the grocery store to grab lunch and a dart, back to the jobsite, then into a dirty truck with 3 other dudes, repeat.
    I remember a bottomless freedom...

  17. #15092
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Funkytown
    Posts
    167
    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Fred Hutch scientist Trevor Bedford, who is cited a lot for his genetic mapping of the virus, says a lack of genetic diversity suggests an emergence in Wuhan, China sometime in Nov 2019. If it was earlier than that, we would see more mutations and more genetic diversity.

    https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c...:B1&r=division
    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    The error built into the early assessments gave a range October 7 to Dec 15, with a likelihood of Nov17. Some studies push this back 2 to 3 more weeks into early November with a range Sept 15-23 to Dec 1 for the earliest likelihood.

    Thanks guys, makes sense.
    I won't sweat them finding a genome sample from before December 10, or refining their estimates of circulation before the first sample.

    I also like his FAQs,
    https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/ce...r-bedford.html





    70 vaccines in development, in all categories. Wow.
    My main takeaway is that the human immune system is really, really complicated.
    Maybe an antibody only vaccine will work.
    Maybe some of them will turn out to give protection to people who would have little to mild symptoms.
    At around 18:38 this guy replies that, "... a lot of us think that having a T cell response is really critical to have along with the antibody response."
    https://medicine.uiowa.edu/microbiol...tanley-perlman
    https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-602/
    Seems like a reasonable guess that it'd be important given immunosenescence,
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunosenescence
    Immunosenescence and human vaccine immune responses
    https://immunityageing.biomedcentral...979-019-0164-9


    I'll be watching the race between,
    antivirals + masks + testing + contact tracing + some population immunity
    and
    a safe and effective vaccine
    Last edited by Bozo T. Clown; 04-24-2020 at 02:29 PM.

  18. #15093
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
    Posts
    4,504
    Quote Originally Posted by Boissal View Post
    The Ingraham Guiliani combo is something to behold. Two of the dumbest cunts to ever walk this earth combining their brain powers on-air to out-stupid even the ginger waffle himself. If there was a fucking god you know he'd have smitten these 2 twats already. Good thing idiocy doesn't kill or the population of this country would drop to 150MM real fast.
    and where did you go to school ? laura went to Dartmouth and Virginia law, two of the best in the nation; and I'm pretty sure she got into both on her own merit, I do not know about rudy.

    I realize you have personal bents against her, but not dumb. I have bents against maddow, but I do not deny she's wicked smart.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  19. #15094
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    908
    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    Uh, what?

    I think construction work is a great breeding/point of transmission for the virus. I also don't think there is anything even remotely essential about Toll Brothers building a bunch of $900,000 McMansions on 1/6 of an acre lots. That shit can fucking wait.

    There's minimal sanitation, you have large numbers of people sharing vehicles, and you have subs from a wide geographic area driving all over the region to various job sites, where they interact with a bunch of people, shit in a port-a-can that doesn't have any hand sani in it and gets used by 100 people a week, then go out to the grocery store to grab lunch and a dart, back to the jobsite, then into a dirty truck with 3 other dudes, repeat.
    My bet is he opens it up Monday, May 4th with restrictions like hot water washing stations, hand sanitizer, and mandatory masks. A few of my projects were considered "essential" and have continued through the shutdown with these provisions in place. Also limited number of crews on site.

    Who knows what he will say, but owners are losing money and we know that means pressure on people making these decisions. My life won't change as I'm going to remote work as long as possible to keep danger to my family low.

  20. #15095
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    SLC
    Posts
    5,282
    what is everyone making of these antibody studies in NY / CA suggesting a real fatality rate of more like 0.1-0.5%?

  21. #15096
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    ?
    Posts
    6,105
    Quote Originally Posted by SorryBro View Post
    My bet is he opens it up Monday, May 4th with restrictions like hot water washing stations, hand sanitizer, and mandatory masks. A few of my projects were considered "essential" and have continued through the shutdown with these provisions in place. Also limited number of crews on site.

    Who knows what he will say, but owners are losing money and we know that means pressure on people making these decisions. My life won't change as I'm going to remote work as long as possible to keep danger to my family low.

    That would be reasonable, given the pressure I'm sure he's under. I just hope he doesn't waver and say that things can resume 4/27, which is what everyone in office is assuming is going to happen. My boss already asked me to prepare to resume normal field and office work as of that date, so we'll see.

    Damn near everyone is losing money right now, I have zero sympathy for anyone working in any construction related field who is clamoring to get back to work instead of doing what is in the best interest of public safety. Those folks can lose every cent they have and drop dead.
    I remember a bottomless freedom...

  22. #15097
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,762
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    and where did you go to school ? laura went to Dartmouth and Virginia law, two of the best in the nation; and I'm pretty sure she got into both on her own merit, I do not know about rudy.

    I realize you have personal bents against her, but not dumb. I have bents against maddow, but I do not deny she's wicked smart.
    Did you bang your head on your crib headboard a lot as an infant? Or were you just dropped daily?

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  23. #15098
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    General Sherman's Favorite City
    Posts
    20,584
    Quote Originally Posted by St. Jerry View Post
    Was thinking similar. Wonder how long until the used car market gets flooded? Have been looking for a 911 but nothing has changed much over the past month as far as pricing and inventory.
    I usually take a look at BaT; ebay motors and the like once or twice a week just to see what things are going for in the Pcar world. I have noticed zero drop in price since this started.

    Will that change? I don't know, but I bet Bobby Stainless could tell us.
    I still call it The Jake.

  24. #15099
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    41,762
    Too early. Denial is the first stage of grief.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  25. #15100
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    EWA
    Posts
    16,881
    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    People figuring that it's just a matter of time before a vaccine eliminates the problem should consider that--
    There are a number of viral diseases where the immune system is not able to clear the virus--HIV, Hepatitis C, varicella/zoster (chickenpox/shingles) are examples. Despite decades of work there is no vaccine for the first two. (Hepatitis C can be cleared by an antiviral drug in most cases. Zoster can be prevented from causing clinical shingles by a vaccine). The point being that the immune system is not all-powerful and that we cannot assume there will be a vaccine. Making a vaccine is easy, making one that works isn't.

    Newscasters, including on PBS, interviewing scientists frequently allude to the "fact" that it will take a year to 18 months to develop a vaccine, when in truth that is the minimum time it will take, if the effort is ever successful. Lies and false assurances, assuming the public can't handle the truth harms credibility in the long run and leads to widespread backlash when the promised breakthrough fails to materialize. If we had been told the truth about masks from the beginning we wouldn't have airplanes with half the people not wearing masks. If we had told from the beginning that stay at home might need to last for months and had Congress begun providing relief to business and the unemployed from the beginning we would not be having the protests and premature reopenings now. I remember thinking when schools were closed "for two weeks" that the people in charge had to know that 2 weeks would not be nearly enough. Even now, stay at home orders are extended for short periods of time when they should be indefinite.

    Cuomo, on The Daily Show the other night, made the point that he was honest about how bad the pandemic would be from the beginning so that New Yorkers would comply with stay-at-home, since he knew that the order couldn't be enforced without voluntary compliance. Now New York has declining cases while other places with less severe outbreaks have still-growing cases.



    This old town is filled with sin it'll swallow you in
    If you've got some money to burn
    Take it home right away, you've got three years to pay
    But Satan is waiting his turn

    This old earthquake's gonna leave me in the poorhouse
    It seems like this whole town's insane
    On the thirty-first floor a gold-plated door
    Won't keep out the Lord's burning rain

    The scientists say it'll all wash away
    But we don't believe anymore
    'Cause we've got our recruits and our green mohair suits
    So please show your I.D. at the door

    This old earthquake's gonna leave me in the poorhouse
    It seems like this whole town's insane
    On the thirty-first floor a gold-plated door
    Won't keep out the Lord's burning rain

    A fool came around tried to clean up this town
    His ideas made some people mad
    He trusted his crowd so he spoke right out loud
    And they lost the best friend they had

    On the thirty-first floor your gold-plated door
    Won't keep out the Lord's burning rain
    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

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