Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[rod9301]

I'm pretty confident that the epidemiology of the flu has been studied extensively enough that they aren't simply considering those who went to the doctor when they calculate mortality rates.

How sure are you? You don't think there are politics involved in disclosing the mortality rate?

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[Ted Striker]

we are dumb and bad of course, but that is still a weird choice of countries for comparison. faeroe islands? estonia?

Took the words right out of my typing fingers. Sadly, even without cherry picking, it's ugly.

[Vt-Freeheel]

Looks like you kids are having fun today, as usual it's like stumbling into polyasshole.

[mall walker]

Took the words right out of my typing fingers. Sadly, even without cherry picking, it's ugly.

lol, that's more like it. usa! usa!

[Buster Highmen]

How sure are you? You don't think there are politics involved in disclosing the mortality rate?

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I think he's referring to cumulative flu mortality rates, not just covid.

Never attribute to malice what can be explained by random error or stupidity.

All we need is more data, more transparency, more specification and hopefully the data will start to be meaningful.

[The AD]

I think he's referring to cumulative flu mortality rates, not just covid.

Correct. I'm sure we've got a huge amount of data regarding the flu from many years. Data from COVID-19, on the other hand, is incomplete and scattershot.

[Skidog]

Is everyone still holding to the "no way it was in the US in early January" belief?

Whatever fucked me up for 3 weeks in Jan has caused lung pain and dry cough ever SINCE. It's May. WTF? I am seeing slow slow improvement with bike riding, etc. Just crazy. Nothing in my life ever caused this kind of prolonged lung issues. I doubt my "really bad cold" from over the winter caused this. Call me crazy I guess.

I believe it was here then and likely before. Its hard to track the first few ya know? To most the symptoms would mimic a flu, so maybe even no visit, and a few extreme cases in hospitals at the time of flu season might not raise flags quickly. I mean the WHO didnt really react in great earnest until like end Jan...so....we only know what we know.

[Skidog]

They're definitely claiming that, if you find out you're infected, contact tracers can go and notify everyone who was "exposed" to you that they were exposed. The CDC et all are saying that's being within 6' for some time period iirc. They also claim the app will identify "hot spots" and it has some other features. I don't think the UT govt's intention was nefarious*, I think they're just not very sharp technologically, but it's still going to both not work and be a big privacy risk, imo.

* I certainly do think that if legalized mass GPS collection of individually identifiable citizens by the government becomes routine in the US it will be used nefariously

Funny cause Utah is like a tech hub forever...even bigger now "silicon slopes" and all (thanks for the tax breaks Herbert) but cmon Novell?? The greatest or second greatest Server OS of all time.

[Skidog]

we are dumb and bad of course, but that is still a weird choice of countries for comparison. faeroe islands? estonia?

I know right? Like add up the top few and you've got NYC population

[iceman]

Took the words right out of my typing fingers. Sadly, even without cherry picking, it's ugly.

Charts like that are pretty useless if you ask me. Sure we have a lot more cases than every country on that chart but with the exception of China we also have a lot more people. The numbers look more reasonable when you look at cases per million population and deaths per million population: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (scroll down to the numbers)

I'm not saying we're doing well by any means but graphic representations, especially on a logarithmic scale, can be somewhat misleading.

[Buster Highmen]

Data from COVID-19, on the other hand, is incomplete and scattershot.

Right, that's pretty much why I keep honking that horn: the data is circumspect, the tests reliability and sample framework is all over the map.

I do have faith that eventually we'll get some valid data, it will take time. It would be nice to have some leadership, but hey, we're still rolling and lots of smart, dedicated folks are doing their best.

Condolences to those who have suffered or are suffering.

[bagtagley]

I'm not in any industry, but have gotten access to cell data for research. I wouldn't put a tracking app on my phone either, FTR.

[Skidog]

Right, that's pretty much why I keep honking that horn: the data is circumspect, the tests reliability and sample framework is all over the map.

I do have faith that eventually we'll get some valid data, it will take time. It would be nice to have some leadership, but hey, we're still rolling and lots of smart, dedicated folks are doing their best.

Condolences to those who have suffered or are suffering.

WELL PUT...

[IVplay]

Correct. I'm sure we've got a huge amount of data regarding the flu from many years. Data from COVID-19, on the other hand, is incomplete and scattershot.

While the fatality rate of COVID can be deliberated on, its ability to overwhelm hospital systems beyond the worst flu systems - even in the face of social distancing - cannot.

[iceman]

speaking of plagues

[LeeLau]

I guess I could consider myself "in the industry" as an RF Engineer designing cellular networks and hardware for 25 years now. I would not sign up for active tracing like this, but I guess my point is that if you have a mobile it's already too late and you're already signed up.

I'm in the industry not in the technical sense that you are but I do have a handle on security, privacy, basic DBA, and did work on some of the hardware end back when differential GPS was a thing. I would agree with the statement "if you have a mobile it's already too late and you're already signed up"

[bodywhomper]

At the time I went into the Doctor (mild fever, bad very dry chest cough, NO sinus anything, very sore throat, terrible body aches). She gave me a strep test (negative) and didn't see any reason to do a flu test for some reason.

Whatever it was it sucked, but I worked through it and never took a sick day......it was hell. I would have taken a sick day or 10, but the only other employee at the company was so sick that he ended up in the hospital twice. Somebody had to work.

Who the fuck knows.

i've had viral bronchitis that mimics what you've described (and other moderate respiratory infection symptoms). about 12 years ago. it sucked. lasted almost 6 weeks with lingering for more than a month after that. a few of us in my office had it. it lasted longer for me because my first doctor was too aggressive in treatment and put me on a steriod too soon. for some, they fought it off more quickly. i was in my early 30's and in very good health. one of my coworkers was in his 50's and only moderate health. he was sick the longest and slowest to recover. luckily, none of us developed pneumonia, but my second care giver at the Dr's office (an NP), called and checked in on me every day for about a week.

[greg]

Charts like that are pretty useless if you ask me. Sure we have a lot more cases than every country on that chart but with the exception of China we also have a lot more people. The numbers look more reasonable when you look at cases per million population and deaths per million population: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (scroll down to the numbers)

I'm not saying we're doing well by any means but graphic representations, especially on a logarithmic scale, can be somewhat misleading.

Well yeah, that is not true. If you drop a bacteria on the breeding ground of a petridish the culture will grow just as fast no matter how big the petridish is. Only the point in time when the bacteria doesn’t find any more material to breed on (herd immunity) will differ depending on the size of the dish. But most likely none of the countries you are looking at have reached that point.

Let’s say you have a virus or bacteria that infects 1 person per day. And you have two communities, one with 10 people and one of 100 people. Starting out with one infected person, the community with 10 people will have 50% of its population infected after 5 days, the population with 100 people only 5%. Does that mean the community of 100 people has taken more appropriate measures to stop the desease? It doesn’t.

What makes a difference in the example of the petridish is if you have bacteria dropped in one place at the beginning or in two places. The petridish with two points of outbreak will have twice the growth rate compared to the petridish with only one point of outbreak. That is why testing, tracing and tracking is so important. Social distancing is just the Stone Age method that you have to solely rely on if you don’t know what is going on.

That is also why a second outbreak could be more desastrous than the first outbreak if you didn’t use the time of distancing to figure out what is going on. Thanks to the distancing the virus has slowed its spreading, but it’s still spreading. So if you just stop the distancing without knowing who is infected, it could start to grow from many more points which effectively could result in a much higher growth rate.

[Ted Striker]

Charts like that are pretty useless if you ask me. Sure we have a lot more cases than every country on that chart but with the exception of China we also have a lot more people. The numbers look more reasonable when you look at cases per million population and deaths per million population: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (scroll down to the numbers)

I'm not saying we're doing well by any means but graphic representations, especially on a logarithmic scale, can be somewhat misleading.

I was just filling in the blanks on the chart above, but yeah that view is designed to elicit a certain response.

Here's the per-million deaths. The labels are a little funny. Top down: Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, USA

[Buster Highmen]

Well yeah, that is not true. If you drop a bacteria on the breeding ground of a petridish the culture will grow just as fast no matter how big the petridish is. Only the point in time when the bacteria doesn’t find any more material to breed on (herd immunity) will differ depending on the size of the dish. But most likely none of the countries you are looking at have reached that point.

Let’s say you have a virus or bacteria that infects 1 person per day. And you have two communities, one with 10 people and one of 100 people. Starting out with one infected person, the community with 10 people will have 50% of its population infected after 5 days, the population with 100 people only 5%. Does that mean the community of 100 people has taken more appropriate measures to stop the desease? It doesn’t.

What makes a difference in the example of the petridish is if you have bacteria dropped in one place at the beginning or in two places. The petridish with two points of outbreak will have twice the growth rate compared to the petridish with only one point of outbreak. That is why testing, tracing and tracking is so important. Social distancing is just the Stone Age method that you have to solely rely on if you don’t know what is going on.

That is also why a second outbreak could be more desastrous than the first outbreak if you didn’t use the time of distancing to figure out what is going on. Thanks to the distancing the virus has slowed its spreading, but it’s still spreading. So if you just stop the distancing without knowing who is infected, it could start to grow from many more points which effectively could result in a much higher growth rate.

That is one bad example.

Bacteria have little mobility, don't go out for coffee, dinner or a show. Bacteria may have tits, but I doubt it.

Their activity is not a function of their wealth.

Growth in a petri dish is a lousy model for the spread of a virus.

It might be better if one varied the density or availability of agar/bacteria food and drink or shows in a variety of dishes. Can bacteria pole dance?

The bacterial model has nothing to do with density whereas viral spread does.

Not to say the US hasn't suffered from a lack of leadership in dealing with the virus.

[Ted Striker]

Plus the bacteria aren't sentient. They don't get bored, decide to go climbing, fall, and get airlifted to the local hospital.

But his greater point isn't wrong. Not knowing who is infected is a big impediment to returning to normal any time soon.

[Buster Highmen]

Plus the bacteria aren't sentient. They don't get bored, decide to go climbing, fall, and get airlifted to the local hospital.

Or get horny and head to the titty bar.

Sheesh, this place has slowed.

[greg]

Well I was trying to give a simple example why looking at population/infected is not a meaningful indicator in a pandemie. Do you agree? Of course the petridish is a simplification to make a point. I didn’t say we were all living in petridishes.

[Tips^Up]

Update: my little family (wife, 9 month old, myself) are about 14-16 days out. Respiratory coughs, headaches, body aches, high fevers for all 3 of us. I took baby girl in to the respiratory clinic, they would not test her or me because 1) it sucks to test babies, 2) we're low risk, 3) tests suck - not very accurate, 4) it doesn't matter.

Now we're looking to put her back into daycare next week, as we get back to more typical work schedules. We had postponed her 9-month checkup until we were in the clear. We all still have persistent coughs but mostly feeling great. Her appointment is Monday, we have requested antibody tests. I've spoken with 2 different nurses and finally the doctor called me directly. He says the antibody test is crap. It was rushed through, tests positive for 5 alternative flus as well as covid-19, the test is highly inaccurate, and, even if our results were correct, there's no proof the antibodies stick around. So I guess nobody knows nothing.

The doc said we're basically all doomed to get it eventually, until a vaccine comes out (which, based on the test for covid, and the antibody test...my confidence levels for being an early vaccine adopter are very low), just hope when it hits you, you're in good health and your local hospital has vacancy.

Short story long, we're fucked and nobody knows anything about this.

[Benny Profane]

I think I've talked about this, but I've worked with cell phone location data. Data provided by OS and/or carrier, not third party apps. Unless you always have your location turned off (I do most of the time), your location is constantly being collected and is probably being sold. It's anonymized, but we've shown that it's not terribly difficult to determine individuals behind all those coordinates.

Yeah. Hasn't this data been used in prosecutions a lot?