Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[XXX-er]

WTF?????
That seems to actually make sense.

I know, especialy if you share a border with a war like country full of non-distacing religious fanaftics, none of whom believe in science and its all run by a pussy grabbing game show host showing early onset dementia or maybe its just brain damage from the syphilis

Trudeau is actualy getting way better press than pre Covid, Doug Ford also getting great press showing he has a human side so these guys are stepping up and leading

and you folks, you have trump ... thots and prayers i guess

[bennymac]

Re:intubation

In a functioning system there will be a lot of communication between ER and intensive care regarding overall protocols and individual cases - any covid patient who is potentially a candidate for those types of decisions isn’t leaving the ER to go home

[The Tortoise]

WTF?????
That seems to actually make sense.

Mostly because all of the provinces have been doing a good job of managing it.

[altasnob]

Belgium has highest death rate adjusted by population. Population 11.4 million and 6,262 deaths.

6,262 : 11,400,000 = 0.00054929824

But this is only because their data includes deaths suspected of being linked, whether the victim was tested or not.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...rusliveupdates

[zion zig zag]

Well, as though you didn't know already, we're pretty much fucked for some time. Just watched the mayor of Las Vegas argue with Anderson Cooper on CNN that her town should just open up without any sort of safety plan. It was like watching two people poke each other with sharp sticks. Trump has done it, he's killed thousands in late May/June. Opening up the national parks should kill maybe a thousand alone. I've pulled whatever money I have in equities and stashed it away safely, because it won't be pretty soon. I predict a supermarket looted in 4-3-2-.... By gunpoint, of course.

Dude, go outside and get some sunshine and exercise. Don't check this thread for 3 days.

[twat]

Was great to ski with you; I hope I can get back to Yurp next year. If not, then the year after.

Right, but google does not have enough context, numbers can mean different things. I'm not confident those number are well defined. Math major hangups y'know.

Asian countries have been through this (SARS) and generally have better social consciousness. eg. no phones on the trains in Japan.

New Yorkers can be surprisingly fit, but are among the most socially dysfunctional beings on earth, as demonstrated by some. Couple N00 Yawker brashness with population density and it's a heavenly environment for contagion.

The poor in the USA are going to get hit hard and the irony lies deep in the Trump and Republicans among them.

Incredibly shitty situations. My mom passed in September, I now have no known blood relatives other than my kids.

things are very relaxed here, everybody is happy, quarantine is over and hospitals still have capacity for now.
they are easing the lock down week by week.
opening shops, opening schools soon etc

my calculations are like this:
austria 8,9mil 510 death
NYC 8,3mil 10.000 death

with the factor of 0,3% deathrate on total population NYC is 20.000 death away from total and austria is 29.500 away from target.
in austria:
so now we have flattened the curve very successful but this means nothing has happened here in the big picture.
i guess governments need to tell public the truth. if you go out there to a restaurant or church you can get sick and die, do only what is necessary and behave.
if your kids go to school they can bring back home disease the risk of going there.

[Name Redacted]

Dude, go outside and get some sunshine and exercise. Don't check this thread for 3 days.

No shit, I think sometimes I check this thread to make sure Bunny is still alive.

[mcski]

Mofro - any insight to the claims from Sweden by their epidemiologist that things are going great and he expects some “herd immunity” in the coming weeks?

[Benny Profane]

Dude, go outside and get some sunshine and exercise. Don't check this thread for 3 days.

Most of the talk in this thread is technical. I'm watching our federal government actually encourage dangerous behavior for the past week. I can do the math, it's easy. Atlanta and Nashville are fucked in a month, just like NY metro has been for a while, the place I've been locked in to for a while and will be for a while. Humans are fucked up beasts, and we're starting to see the worst in our hallowed USA. You dont think it's going to get worse? Maybe not in your white privilege bubble that TGR seems to exist in, Zooming your cube work and then hitting an MTB trail, but, in case you haven't noticed, there's mile long food lines out there ALREADY, and this shit has just started. I mean, just think of where we were just six weeks ago. I was planning a cross country drive to the Rockies, hanging out with other upper white class people skiing in all the cool places. Now I have to suck it up and put on a mask just to go shop for food. This isn't the end. There's a ton of people out there with jack for cash in the bank, and maybe 400 million guns. Bad combo. And it's too late just to say, whatever, all over, back to normal. No fucking way. That ain't happening for maybe two years. I seriously doubt a lift serviced ski season will exist next year. Well, maybe 20%, catering to drive up locals. But no skiing is the ultimate first world problem. In a way, I dont blame that mayor of Las Vegas. It's her hail Mary. What does she have to lose? It's a ghost town, except the zombies are all stuck inside their mortgaged homes running out of food. In the end, its stupidly because who will actually fly to Vegas and gamble (with no money), but, here we are. It's not going to be pretty.

What are the states of grief? Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acc eptance. We're now jumping into anger, big time. It won't work, of course, but, life, you know, it's such a rich pageant. History rhymes. Good luck.

[Core Shot]

No shit, I think sometimes I check this thread to make sure Bunny is still alive.

I stop in to see what soup he had today. Hope there wasn't any Rat in it.

[DBdude]

things are very relaxed here, everybody is happy, quarantine is over and hospitals still have capacity for now.
they are easing the lock down week by week.
opening shops, opening schools soon etc

my calculations are like this:
austria 8,9mil 510 death
NYC 8,3mil 10.000 death

with the factor of 0,3% deathrate on total population NYC is 20.000 death away from total and austria is 29.500 away from target.
in austria:
so now we have flattened the curve very successful but this means nothing has happened here in the big picture.
i guess governments need to tell public the truth. if you go out there to a restaurant or church you can get sick and die, do only what is necessary and behave.
if your kids go to school they can bring back home disease the risk of going there.

I am not arguing with you but take into consideration that austria doesn't have the population density NYC does. this bugs feeds off of people being close together.

if you compare NY State covid deaths to population you get:
10,022 to 19.45 Million

vermont
37 to 625,000

[skifishbum]

Most of the talk in this thread is technical. I'm watching our federal government actually encourage dangerous behavior for the past week. I can do the math, it's easy. Atlanta and Nashville are fucked in a month, just like NY metro has been for a while, the place I've been locked in to for a while and will be for a while. Humans are fucked up beasts, and we're starting to see the worst in our hallowed USA. You dont think it's going to get worse? Maybe not in your white privilege bubble that TGR seems to exist in, Zooming your cube work and then hitting an MTB trail, but, in case you haven't noticed, there's mile long food lines out there ALREADY, and this shit has just started. I mean, just think of where we were just six weeks ago. I was planning a cross country drive to the Rockies, hanging out with other upper white class people skiing in all the cool places. Now I have to suck it up and put on a mask just to go shop for food. This isn't the end. There's a ton of people out there with jack for cash in the bank, and maybe 400 million guns. Bad combo. And it's too late just to say, whatever, all over, back to normal. No fucking way. That ain't happening for maybe two years. I seriously doubt a lift serviced ski season will exist next year. Well, maybe 20%, catering to drive up locals. But no skiing is the ultimate first world problem. In a way, I dont blame that mayor of Las Vegas. It's her hail Mary. What does she have to lose? It's a ghost town, except the zombies are all stuck inside their mortgaged homes running out of food. In the end, its stupidly because who will actually fly to Vegas and gamble (with no money), but, here we are. It's not going to be pretty.

What are the states of grief? Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acc eptance. We're now jumping into anger, big time. It won't work, of course, but, life, you know, it's such a rich pageant. History rhymes. Good luck.

so your unprepared?
and angry
thank god you don't have guns and years of angry cloud yelling experiance
glad my last day skiing was with maggots
back in the bump elbow days

and im 100% sure maggots will share turns with maggots at some point next season
and birds for bun buns will fly
its a tradition now bro

unplug for a day old man read a couple books
shit ill send ya one
pretty interesting Utah has a 85% contact tracing rate
govs planning opening up elective surgeries despite some health care practioners concerns may 1

[SkiCougar]

"The entire population is considered at risk" during a normal flu season? That's not right for obvious reasons.

In contrast, absent control measures nearly the entire population is at risk from SARS2 except for low single digit percentages in most places and maybe 25-30% in NYC.

well, if that is not true for the flu; then what % is at risk for corona ?

seems also not the total population given it has been worldwide and only 2% infected; 98% of the world are not shut in. you can make it less or more serious just by adjusting your population pool.

[Benny Profane]

Hey, I'm fine hippie. Better prepared than 90%. And not angry. Almost at acceptance. But I have plenty of food and two road bikes. Good luck in the Wild Wild West.

[MultiVerse]

Mofro - any insight to the claims from Sweden by their epidemiologist that things are going great and he expects some “herd immunity” in the coming weeks?

Hopefully Mofro will weigh in. In the meantime, there was a study released in Sweden saying the ratio of confirmed to infected is 1:999. That's almost a thousand people undetected for every one detected. If true 600,000 people in Stockholm will be infected by the end of the month.

It doesn't seem realistic.

well, if that is not true for the flu; then what % is at risk for corona ?

seems also not the total population given it has been worldwide and only 2% infected; 98% of the world are not shut in. you can make it less or more serious just by adjusting your population pool.

There's a flu vaccine and people in previous years often have some carryover immunity depending on the strain. There's no vaccine and limited herd immunity with corona.

In theory we can make it less or more serious by adjusting the population pool, and it might come to that, but in practice protecting the vulnerable hasn't worked out. Sweden, for example, readily admits their plan of protecting the vulnerable didn't work.

[Deebased]

Stop with the herd immunity. You don't know what you're talking about. First, it's not even clear reaching herd immunity is possible. We don't know how long acquired immunity lasts so your plan just kills more people if the time to reach whatever percentage of infected is greater than the acquired immunity.

Herd immunity is S=1/R0. If R0=2.5 the number infected is 60%, if R0=5.7 the number infected is 84%. Those are huge percentages and people aren't going to allow a linear increase up to 80% of the population. The economy will shut down on its own no matter what the government says.

But even if the population just allowed to the epidemic to wash over them like a wave, that wave doesn't stop with the herd immunity number. It has dynamic momentum. That momentum is called overshoot. It takes time for infected people to develop immunity and they keep infecting people well beyond static herd immunity. The overshoot number is huge for a highly infectious virus like SARS2, something like 30%, so that means you end up with 90% of the population infected.

A herd immunity approach won’t work. It won't stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

While I was poking fun at you initially (particularly since they're clear 5.5% is the MINIMUM and you abused the extrapolation of those numbers in the study pretty dramatically.

Perhaps you overlooked "The results of the study indicate that this test reliably confirms exposure to SARS-CoV-2 twenty days after the onset of symptoms". What was the confirmed covfefe case load for Geneva in late March?

Given the duration from infection to symptoms (4-14 days) + the aforementioned 20 days to seroprevalence. You should have compared the known infection # for Geneva in mid to late March (sub 1000 depending on the date you choose) resulting in a much higher range of 27+.1 ratio which is much more in line with other recent antibody studies.

BTW its official nothing will stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 sans herd immunity and/or a vaccine and following that same vein of thought.......

We don't know if a vaccine Is even possible. We don't know how long it will take to research, develop and deploy a vaccine, we don't know if that vaccine will continue to be effective against mutations in the disease 18 months from now.

As you well know we're not creating safety, we're borrowing time and leveraging it against hope.

I'll place my bet on the strategy demonstrated repeatedly over hundreds of millions of years.

[mcski]

It seems ridiculous to me, but there were several articles about it this morning - that I’m sure miss some key details.

[PNWbrit]

testy testaments to tardy tests requests.

Tests: Direct Methods- actual detection of live virus (culture), detection of viral nucleic acids (rtPCR), detection of viral proteins (Antigen detection). Antigen detection requires generation of an antibody that will bind a virus target protein within a bodily fluid/tissue. These will take a bit longer due to how the targeting antibodies are generated.

Indirect Methods- these are surrogate markers for infection- Antibody assays IgM/ IgG/IgA. IgM antibodies are a marker of recent infection and fade (generally) fast with time. IgG antibodies are usually long lasting but often do not distinguish current infection from past infection with the same infectious agent. IgA are mucosal antibodies and are (generally) short lived. Cytokine/host marker profiles- elevated /altered cirulating signaling molecules may define a disease state. Indirect assays can also measure host metabolite changes, volatile organic compounds etc.




That sum things up accurately. One can look at which tests have been grant FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)
here https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/...ons#covid19ivd so see which tests have EUA approval. Several where I work should be added to this list by the end of the week.

So far there are 4 antibody tests on the list, 2 are rapid/ what is known as lateral flow assay format and 2 are lab based ELISA format. ELISA is usually more sensitive but takes ~3-4 hours to run with incubation times. Rapid may be completed in as little as 5-15 minutes but lacks sensitivity at lower antibody levels.

Testing- sensitivity (true pos- false negatives) and specificity (true negatives- false positives) of the assay are what drives accuracy of a test.

Now how do we test and who? First, we need to compare a test against known positives by another metric (rtPCR or culture) to determine how sensitive it is within a disease population. We test against known negatives to determine specificity.

But how we select even these populations can skew sensitivity/ specificity. For instance, antibody (again generally) takes 7-10 days to arise post infection or onset of symptoms. rtPCR is more likely to be positive when viral load is higher and begins to decrease around day 10. So antibody tests on people who are between day 0-10 onset of symptoms are more likely to be rtPCR+ and Ab(-) during this time. After day15, most patients will convert to antibody positive but may now be rtPCR negative.

So if we derive sensitivity after day10, the numbers will be higher >95%, than studies when earlier time point samples are included as well.

For specificity, population context is meaningful. Are we testing samples in an area where disease is endemic or non-endemic? Are we testing against other diseases with similar signs and symptoms? Are we testing against related viral infections? The specificity in these populations may be very different.

Serosurveilence requires at least modest sensitivity but very high specificity and is tied to overall prevelance. When prevelence is low say <5%, specificity must be very high and sampling size must be large otherwise the error in the false positive rate becomes large.

We all owe you a beer.

[iceman]

Therapeutic phlebotomy is a rarely done procedure, done mainly for polycythemia rubra vera...

Not that it matters, and just for the record, phlebotomy is the main treatment for Hemochromosis, a relatively common genetic condition in those of Northern European and Celtic extraction (such as myself). I had 53 phlebotomies in a 4-year period, basically 5 complete blood changes worth. It was kinda arduous but it beat dying. So far, at least.

https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/...ochromatosis#1

edit: You'd think I could spell my own health condition. It's Hemochromotosis

[DBdude]

I'll place my bet on the strategy demonstrated repeatedly over hundreds of millions of years.

Yes the tried and true people dying method

I hope it’s your family and not mine



Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[MultiVerse]

While I was poking fun at you initially (particularly since they're clear 5.5% is the MINIMUM and you abused the extrapolation of those numbers in the study pretty dramatically.

Perhaps you overlooked "The results of the study indicate that this test reliably confirms exposure to SARS-CoV-2 twenty days after the onset of symptoms". What was the confirmed covfefe case load for Geneva in late March?

Given the duration from infection to symptoms (4-14 days) + the aforementioned 20 days to seroprevalence. You should have compared the known infection # for Geneva in mid to late March (sub 1000 depending on the date you choose) resulting in a much higher range of 27+.1 ratio which is much more in line with other recent antibody studies.

I try to be sensitive to your obsessive repulsive disorder but the post didn't extrapolate anything it just reported the report's results along with a Google translation of the summary:

"The minimum overall seroprevalence of 5.5% suggests that on April 17, 2020, approximately 27,000 people were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the canton of Geneva."
...
"These first data show a seroprevalence in the population estimated at 3.5% (possible variability from 1.6% to 5.4%) for the first week and 5.5% (possible variability from 3.3% to 7, 7%) for the second."

If you want to guess at some unbounded number or extrapolate into the future without knowing what control measures were put in place that's fine, but that has nothing to do with the original post.



I doubt anyone else cares but on the off chance anyone wants to decipher deeb's babble here's the original link:

https://translate.google.com/transla...on&prev=search

[iceman]

I don't know why I can't find a link to it but the graphic on the front page of today's Times was instructive (but could've been clearer on the actual numbers), here's a link to an image of the page, it's the graphic top center: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020...tpage/scan.pdf

[DBdude]

I try to be sensitive to your obsessive repulsive disorder but the post just reported the results:

"The minimum overall seroprevalence of 5.5% suggests that on April 17, 2020, approximately 27,000 people were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the canton of Geneva."
...
"These first data show a seroprevalence in the population estimated at 3.5% (possible variability from 1.6% to 5.4%) for the first week and 5.5% (possible variability from 3.3% to 7, 7%) for the second."

If you want to guess at some unbounded number or extrapolate into the future without knowing what control measures were put in place that's fine, but that has nothing to do with the original post.



I doubt anyone else cares but on the off chance anyone wants to decipher deeb's babble here's the original link:

https://translate.google.com/transla...on&prev=search

i skimmed it and i don't see what kind of conclusion you can take from it. so 5% infection rate of the population...

[Name Redacted]

Most of the talk in this thread is technical. I'm watching our federal government actually encourage dangerous behavior for the past week. I can do the math, it's easy. Atlanta and Nashville are fucked in a month, just like NY metro has been for a while, the place I've been locked in to for a while and will be for a while. Humans are fucked up beasts, and we're starting to see the worst in our hallowed USA. You dont think it's going to get worse? Maybe not in your white privilege bubble that TGR seems to exist in, Zooming your cube work and then hitting an MTB trail, but, in case you haven't noticed, there's mile long food lines out there ALREADY, and this shit has just started. I mean, just think of where we were just six weeks ago. I was planning a cross country drive to the Rockies, hanging out with other upper white class people skiing in all the cool places. Now I have to suck it up and put on a mask just to go shop for food. This isn't the end. There's a ton of people out there with jack for cash in the bank, and maybe 400 million guns. Bad combo. And it's too late just to say, whatever, all over, back to normal. No fucking way. That ain't happening for maybe two years. I seriously doubt a lift serviced ski season will exist next year. Well, maybe 20%, catering to drive up locals. But no skiing is the ultimate first world problem. In a way, I dont blame that mayor of Las Vegas. It's her hail Mary. What does she have to lose? It's a ghost town, except the zombies are all stuck inside their mortgaged homes running out of food. In the end, its stupidly because who will actually fly to Vegas and gamble (with no money), but, here we are. It's not going to be pretty.

What are the states of grief? Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acc eptance. We're now jumping into anger, big time. It won't work, of course, but, life, you know, it's such a rich pageant. History rhymes. Good luck.

So would you say that Covid made you question where you live?

[MultiVerse]

i skimmed it and i don't see what kind of conclusion you can take from it. so 5% infection rate of the population...

I think deeb is trying to wrap his head around the ratio of confirmed to uncomfirmed but different countries have different testing regimes and different testing capabilities so the fact that the ratio is different, by itself, isn't significant without knowing more.

The main point is in even a relatively hard hit area by mid April only around 5.5% of the population had been infected.